1,720,975 research outputs found
Scenario analysis workflow for the manuscript "Sources of uncertainty in long-term global scenarios of solar photovoltaic technology"
No full textKey visualization and analysis steps for the manuscript "Sources of uncertainty in long-term global scenarios of solar photovoltaic technology"
Historic data of the national electricity system transitions in Europe in 1990–2019 for retrospective evaluation of models
No full textThis data package enables empirical analysis of national electricity system transitions and retrospective evaluation of electricity system models in 1990–2019 in 31 European countries, including the EU27, Switzerland, Iceland, Norway, and the United Kingdom. The data package covers two types of content. Firstly, we provide an annotated list of 528 original data sources and references relevant for retrospective electricity system modeling with emphasis on open-access sources. Secondly, we provide 1359 processed data files in a format that is suitable as input to electricity system models. Four types of data files are included for each country: (i) a country file documenting national electricity demand and economic data, (ii) technology files describing techno-economic data for each major generation technology in the country's electricity mix, (iii) resource files describing prices and CO(2) emissions for each generation fuel or input resource, and (iv) load profiles describing 24 h national load curves for each available year. We provide these data files as comma-separated files to enable their wider reuse for retrospective evaluation of models as well as for empirical analyses of the European electricity system transitions
Aligning historical international aviation and maritime transport data to the scope of EU climate policies
Full text linkThe climate targets of the European Union (EU) are defined in relation to historical benchmarks: for instance, the European Climate Law requires net domestic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to be reduced by at least 55% by 2030 compared to 1990. However, for aviation and maritime transport, primary statistics on emissions are not available at the level of geographical detail needed to suitably track the contribution of international voyages to domestic emissions. To this end, this report describes a calibration methodology that harmonizes available statistics and yields an
internally-consistent decomposition of 1990-2021 activity, energy use, and emissions for aviation and maritime transport in the EU and European Economic Area (EEA). The resulting dataset matches Eurostat energy balances and distinguishes intra-/extra-EU and/or intra-/extra-EEA departures for each EU Member State, each EEA country, and the United Kingdom. The dataset is therefore consistent with the scope of EU climate policies and can inform further research and decisionmaking. The dataset is included in the latest release of the Joint Research Centre's Integrated Database of the European Energy System (JRC-IDEES-2021), which is freely accessible through the JRC Data Catalogue under an open-access license.JRC.C.6 - Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor
On the role of scenarios in designing robust strategies: a comparison of MORDM, multi-scenario MORDM and Robust Optimization
Full text linkThe management of complex environmental problems typically involves deep uncertainties as well as competing priorities. Several methods have been presented in the literature to help decision-makers cope with these characteristics; these include many-objective robust decision making (MORDM) (Kasprzyk et al., 2013), and different techniques based on robust optimization (RO, reviewed in e.g. Beyer & Sendhoff, 2007). MORDM identifies a set of optimal management solutions under a given combination of uncertain conditions (i.e. a single scenario), then tests these solutions for their robustness across a broader set of scenarios. Conversely, RO directly evaluates robustness across multiple scenarios to define optimal solutions. Recently, Watson & Kasprzyk (2017) presented multi-scenario MORDM as a possible middle ground between the reference scenario approach of MORDM, and the multi-scenario perspective of RO.
To better understand how the relative effectiveness of these methods may depend on the structure of the problem and its management options, we compare MORDM, multi-scenario MORDM, and RO with the classic lake problem (Carpenter, Ludwig, & Brock, 1999). The problem is simulated with open-loop management (Ward et al., 2015), and with two variants of a direct policy search (DPS) approach (Quinn, Reed, & Keller, 2017) which apply closed-loop management at different time scales.
The analysis indicates that MORDM performs reasonably well with the DPS variants, but is less effective with open-loop management. RO is effective across management variants, but is more computationally expensive. Improved sampling techniques could mitigate this issue by reducing the size of the scenario ensemble used for optimization
The role of carbon capture in decarbonising EU industries: A review of projections for 2030 and 2050
No full textEnergy-intensive industries are expected to play a significant role in this deployment of carbon capture. However, the distribution of CO2 capture deployment across industry sectors remains uncertain as it will depend on various factors, and sectoral projections available in the literature have a wide spread and are often not comparable. In response to the identified research gap, this work examines projections for CO2 capture deployment within the EU industrial sectors, focusing on the cement, iron and steel, and chemical industries, for 2030 and 2050. We harmonize and discuss sectoral projections from seventeen scenarios, and in order to draw cross-sectoral conclusions, we compare them with 820 aggregated, EU-wide industry scenarios. The sectoral projections mapped project carbon capture to significantly reduce emissions in the cement sector by an average of 70 % by 2050. In the near term, projections for 2030 show the highest emission reductions in the chemical sector (10 %), followed by cement (7 %) and iron and steel (5 %). Sectoral projections align well with EU-wide scenarios, particularly with those complying with global 2 °C targets. Notably, many scenarios exceed the Net-Zero Industry Act target for 2030 and project capture levels beyond historical uptake trends of clean energy technologies. The findings highlight that while long-term projections consistently foresee large-scale deployment of CO₂ capture across EU industry, near-term expectations remain modest and risk falling short of the 2030 needs.JRC.C.7 - Energy Transition Insights for Polic
Electricity market governance and the historical performance of electricity transitions in European countries: insights from retrospective modeling
No full textIn the last decades, the governance of national electricity systems in Europe has experienced several shifts between market liberalization and policy intervention. However, there remains a lack of consistent evidence about impacts of electricity market governance on the performance of electricity systems. This work uses retrospective bottom-up modeling to explore potential links between electricity market governance in 31 European countries and their electricity system transitions during 1990–2019. We identify historical governance regimes based on indicators of market regulation, renewable electricity policy support, and combined regulation and policy support. To assess performance of electricity systems, we quantify deviations between modeled historical and least-cost pathways using net present costs per unit of supplied electricity, emissions intensity, transformation of generation mix, and share of new renewable technologies. Countries with earlier liberalization of electricity markets on average had higher unit net present costs, lower emissions intensity, and higher share of new renewable generation relative to modeled least-cost pathways. Countries combining late liberalization with high support for renewable generation, which includes countries with higher public ownership of incumbent low-carbon generation, had the lowest relative values for unit net present costs and emissions intensity. Further work could yield statistical insights on these patterns by combining our modeling approach with econometric analysis
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Full text linkThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Full text link“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Full text linkWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
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