1,720,964 research outputs found
Effects of carbon pricing in Germany and Spain: an assessment with EMuSe
Get PDFUtilizando el modelo dinámico de equilibrio general multisectorial medioambiental de tres regiones EMuSe, encontramos que una tarificación del carbono limitada a Alemania o España solo conduce a un efecto negativo permanente sobre la producción en estas economías. La reducción de emisiones que ello provoca no es lo suficientemente grande como para compensar el aumento de los costes marginales de producción. Si el resto de Europa se adhiere al sistema de tarificación del carbono, los efectos a largo plazo sobre la producción serán positivos. Sin embargo, en este caso, los costes de transición serían aún mayores debido a las estrechas relaciones comerciales dentro de Europa. Encontramos evidencias que apuntan a la fuga de carbono, la cual puede reducirse ligeramente mediante un mecanismo de ajuste en frontera. Aun así, este mecanismo no cambia las reglas del juego, ya que protege principalmente a los sectores nacionales contaminantes. Mientras que Alemania se beneficia del ajuste fronterizo, España sale perdiendo durante la transición, aunque a la larga el sector energético español será el más beneficiado por su relativamente baja intensidad de emisiones. Por último, Europa cuenta con un gran incentivo para que el resto del mundo se sume a la iniciativa, ya que así la recesión será más breve y los beneficios a largo plazo serán mayores.Using the dynamic, three-region environmental multi-sector general equilibrium model EMuSe, we find that pricing carbon in Germany or Spain only leads to a permanent negative effect on output in these economies. The induced emissions reduction is not large enough to overcompensate for the increase in marginal production costs. If the rest of Europe joins the carbon pricing scheme, long-run output effects are positive. However, in this case, transition costs are even larger due to close trade relations within Europe. We find evidence for carbon leakage, which can be reduced slightly by a border adjustment mechanism. Still, it is no game changer as it mainly protects dirty domestic sectors. While Germany benefits from border adjustment, Spain actually loses throughout the transition. In the long run, the Spanish energy sector benefits most because of its relatively low emission intensity. Finally, Europe has a strong incentive to get the rest of the world on board as then the downturn is shorter and long-run benefits are larger
Predicting monetary policy using artificial neural networks
No full textThis paper analyses the forecasting performance of monetary policy reaction functions using U.S. Federal Reserve's Greenbook real-time data. The results indicate that artificial neural networks are able to predict the nominal interest rate better than linear and nonlinearTaylor rule models as well as univariate processes. While in-sample measures usually imply a forward-looking behaviour of the central bank, using nowcasts of the explanatory variables seems to be better suited for forecasting purposes. Overall, evidence suggests that U.S. monetary policy behaviour between1987-2012 is nonlinear
Predicting Monetary Policy Using Artificial Neural Networks
No full textThis paper analyses the forecasting performance of monetary policy reaction functions using U.S. Federal Reserve's Greenbook real-time data. The results indicate that articial neural networks are able to predict the nominal interest rate better than linear and nonlinear Taylor rule models as well as univariate processes. While in-sample measures usually imply a forward-looking behaviour of the central bank, using nowcasts of the explanatory variables seems to be better suited for forecasting purposes. Overall, evidence suggests that U.S. monetary policy behaviour between 1987-2012 is nonlinear
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Get PDFThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Classification of monetary and fiscal dominance regimes using machine learning techniques
No full textThe authors identify U.S. monetary and fiscal dominance regimes using machine learning techniques. The algorithms are trained and verified by employing simulated data from Markov-switching DSGE models, before they classify regimes from 1968-2017 using actual U.S. data. All machine learning methods outperform a standard logistic regression concerning the simulated data. Among those the Boosted Ensemble Trees classifier yields the best results. The authors find clear evidence of fiscal dominance before Volcker. Monetary dominance is detected between 1984-1988, before a fiscally led regime turns up around the stock market crash lasting until 1994. Until the beginning of the new century, monetary dominance is established, while the more recent evidence following the financial crisis is mixed with a tendency towards fiscal dominance
Optimal monetary policy using reinforcement learning
No full textThis paper introduces a reinforcement learning based approach to compute optimal interest rate reaction functions in terms of fulfilling inflation and output gap targets. The method is generally flexible enough to incorporate restrictions like the zero lower bound, nonlinear economy structures or asymmetric preferences. We use quarterly U.S. data from1987:Q3-2007:Q2 to estimate (nonlinear) model transition equations, train optimal policies and perform counterfactual analyses to evaluate them, assuming that the transition equations remain unchanged. All of our resulting policy rules outperform other common rules as well as the actual federal funds rate. Given a neural network representation of the economy, our optimized nonlinear policy rules reduce the central bank's loss by over43 %. A DSGE model comparison exercise further indicates robustness of the optimized rules
Variations on the Author
Get PDF“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Get PDFWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts
Get PDFWe conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued
use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation
counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more
sophisticated methods
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