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    Modeling regional effects of energy policy: Combining technical and economic aspects to assess energy policy

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    Summary of the thesis When designing and introducing policy instruments like taxes and subsidies, mathematical models are employed to assess which effects should be expected. Assessments of socioeconomic costs and gains are central in such analyses. Energy is a fundamental driver for economic development. Society invests heavily in robust supply chains to ensure safe access to energy, providing a basis for production, growth and welfare. A side effect from using fossil energy is emissions of greenhouse gases that contribute to global warming. This challenge requires major societal transitions, switching from polluting fossil energy to climate-friendly renewable energy. Designing and selecting appropriate instruments that affect energy use, human behavior and economic activity requires suitable tools. The thesis develops such analysis tools, enabling mathematical simulation of effects and consequences from policy instruments instead of testing them on millions of people. Interactions between energy supply chains and the economy are modeled on a national scale by linking technical bottom-up energy models with economic top-down equilibrium models. The models are geographically disaggregated, and local regional effects in alternative future scenarios are calculated. The thesis explores novel methods for coupling the models and demonstrates dramatic impacts on the calculation times necessary to achieve convergence. The thesis demonstrates situations where different economic equilibria are possible. One of the analyses estimates that greenhouse gas emissions from transport in 2030 may be halved by technology investments corresponding to a 6.5% income reduction. The thesis analyzes effects of green certificates, which is a political instrument for increasing the share of renewable electricity. A new financial market for certificates is established, which interacts closely with the power market. First, the certificates affect the distribution of socio-economic surplus between the various players in the power market. Secondly, the certificates affect the regional distribution of socio-economic surplus. Thirdly, changes in infrastructure affect both the establishment of new renewable power generation and the distribution of socio-economic surplus. The thesis shows how different market conditions and future use of power influence the efficiency of green certificates. It also shows how cross-border transmission connections affect future winners and losers.Sammendrag av avhandlingen Ved utforming og innføring av politiske virkemidler som f.eks. avgifter og subsidier, benyttes matematiske modeller for å anslå hvilke virkninger som kan forventes. Sentralt i dette arbeidet står analyse av samfunnsøkonomiske kostnader og gevinster. Energi er en vesentlig innsatsfaktor for økonomisk aktivitet, og samfunnet investerer store verdier i robuste leveransekjeder for at vi skal ha sikker tilgang til energi som gir grunnlag for produksjon, vekst og velferd. En bivirkning fra bruk av fossil energi er utslipp av drivhusgasser som bidrar til global oppvarming. I dagens situasjon skaper denne utfordringen behov for store omstillinger, ved at man må legge om fra forurensende fossil energi til klimavennlig fornybar energi. Utforming og valg av egnede virkemidler som påvirker atferd, økonomisk aktivitet og energibruk krever gode verktøy. Avhandlingen utvikler slike analyseverktøy, slik at effekter og konsekvenser av virkemiddelbruk kan simuleres matematisk i stedet for å testes ut på millioner av mennesker. I avhandlingen modelleres samspillet mellom energisystemet og økonomien i nasjonal målestokk, ved at tekniske energimodeller kobles med økonomiske likevektsmodeller. Modellapparatet ivaretar også den geografiske dimensjonen, og anvendes til å beregne regionale effekter i alternative fremtidsscenarier. Avhandlingen utforsker nye metoder for maskinell sammenkobling av modeller, noe som har dramatisk betydning for beregningstidene som er nødvendige for å oppnå konvergens. Avhandlingen påviser situasjoner hvor ulike former for økonomisk likevekt kan oppstå. En av analysene anslår at kostnadseffektive teknologiinvesteringer som gir en halvering av klimagassutslippene fra transport i 2030 vil tilsvare om lag 6,5% inntektsreduksjon. Avhandlingen analyserer virkninger av elsertifikater, som er et politisk virkemiddel for å øke andelen av fornybar elektrisitet. For verdsetting av sertifikatene etableres det et nytt finansielt marked, som samspiller tett med kraftmarkedet. For det første påvirker sertifikatene fordelingen av samfunnsøkonomiske gevinster mellom de ulike aktørene i kraftmarkedet. For det andre påvirker sertifikatene den regionale fordelingen av samfunnsøkonomisk overskudd. For det tredje påvirker endringer i overføringskapasiteter både etablering av ny fornybar kraftproduksjon og fordelingen av samfunnsøkonomisk overskudd. Avhandlingen viser hvordan ulike markedsforhold og fremtidig bruk av kraften påvirker effektiviteten av grønne sertifikater. Den viser også hvordan nettverksforbindelser til utlandet påvirker hvem som blir fremtidige vinnere og tapere

    Modeling regional effects of energy policy: Combining technical and economic aspects to assess energy policy

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    Summary of the thesis When designing and introducing policy instruments like taxes and subsidies, mathematical models are employed to assess which effects should be expected. Assessments of socioeconomic costs and gains are central in such analyses. Energy is a fundamental driver for economic development. Society invests heavily in robust supply chains to ensure safe access to energy, providing a basis for production, growth and welfare. A side effect from using fossil energy is emissions of greenhouse gases that contribute to global warming. This challenge requires major societal transitions, switching from polluting fossil energy to climate-friendly renewable energy. Designing and selecting appropriate instruments that affect energy use, human behavior and economic activity requires suitable tools. The thesis develops such analysis tools, enabling mathematical simulation of effects and consequences from policy instruments instead of testing them on millions of people. Interactions between energy supply chains and the economy are modeled on a national scale by linking technical bottom-up energy models with economic top-down equilibrium models. The models are geographically disaggregated, and local regional effects in alternative future scenarios are calculated. The thesis explores novel methods for coupling the models and demonstrates dramatic impacts on the calculation times necessary to achieve convergence. The thesis demonstrates situations where different economic equilibria are possible. One of the analyses estimates that greenhouse gas emissions from transport in 2030 may be halved by technology investments corresponding to a 6.5% income reduction. The thesis analyzes effects of green certificates, which is a political instrument for increasing the share of renewable electricity. A new financial market for certificates is established, which interacts closely with the power market. First, the certificates affect the distribution of socio-economic surplus between the various players in the power market. Secondly, the certificates affect the regional distribution of socio-economic surplus. Thirdly, changes in infrastructure affect both the establishment of new renewable power generation and the distribution of socio-economic surplus. The thesis shows how different market conditions and future use of power influence the efficiency of green certificates. It also shows how cross-border transmission connections affect future winners and losers.Sammendrag av avhandlingen Ved utforming og innføring av politiske virkemidler som f.eks. avgifter og subsidier, benyttes matematiske modeller for å anslå hvilke virkninger som kan forventes. Sentralt i dette arbeidet står analyse av samfunnsøkonomiske kostnader og gevinster. Energi er en vesentlig innsatsfaktor for økonomisk aktivitet, og samfunnet investerer store verdier i robuste leveransekjeder for at vi skal ha sikker tilgang til energi som gir grunnlag for produksjon, vekst og velferd. En bivirkning fra bruk av fossil energi er utslipp av drivhusgasser som bidrar til global oppvarming. I dagens situasjon skaper denne utfordringen behov for store omstillinger, ved at man må legge om fra forurensende fossil energi til klimavennlig fornybar energi. Utforming og valg av egnede virkemidler som påvirker atferd, økonomisk aktivitet og energibruk krever gode verktøy. Avhandlingen utvikler slike analyseverktøy, slik at effekter og konsekvenser av virkemiddelbruk kan simuleres matematisk i stedet for å testes ut på millioner av mennesker. I avhandlingen modelleres samspillet mellom energisystemet og økonomien i nasjonal målestokk, ved at tekniske energimodeller kobles med økonomiske likevektsmodeller. Modellapparatet ivaretar også den geografiske dimensjonen, og anvendes til å beregne regionale effekter i alternative fremtidsscenarier. Avhandlingen utforsker nye metoder for maskinell sammenkobling av modeller, noe som har dramatisk betydning for beregningstidene som er nødvendige for å oppnå konvergens. Avhandlingen påviser situasjoner hvor ulike former for økonomisk likevekt kan oppstå. En av analysene anslår at kostnadseffektive teknologiinvesteringer som gir en halvering av klimagassutslippene fra transport i 2030 vil tilsvare om lag 6,5% inntektsreduksjon. Avhandlingen analyserer virkninger av elsertifikater, som er et politisk virkemiddel for å øke andelen av fornybar elektrisitet. For verdsetting av sertifikatene etableres det et nytt finansielt marked, som samspiller tett med kraftmarkedet. For det første påvirker sertifikatene fordelingen av samfunnsøkonomiske gevinster mellom de ulike aktørene i kraftmarkedet. For det andre påvirker sertifikatene den regionale fordelingen av samfunnsøkonomisk overskudd. For det tredje påvirker endringer i overføringskapasiteter både etablering av ny fornybar kraftproduksjon og fordelingen av samfunnsøkonomisk overskudd. Avhandlingen viser hvordan ulike markedsforhold og fremtidig bruk av kraften påvirker effektiviteten av grønne sertifikater. Den viser også hvordan nettverksforbindelser til utlandet påvirker hvem som blir fremtidige vinnere og tapere

    From linking to integration of energy system models and computational general equilibrium models - Effects on equilibria and convergence

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    This paper compares hard-linked and integrated approaches of hybrid top-down and bottom-up models in terms of equilibria and convergence. Four setups where a bottom-up linear programming model is hard-linked with a top-down computable general equilibrium model are implemented. A solution is found by iterating between the two models, until convergence is reached. The same equilibrium solution is found by all hard-linked setups in all problem instances. Next, one integrated model is introduced by extending the computable general equilibrium mixed complementarity model with the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions that represent the bottom-up linear programming model. This integrated model provides the same solutions as the hard-linked models. Also, an alternative integrated model is provided, where the bottom-up model objective is optimized while the top-down model is included as additional constraints. This nonlinear program corresponds to a multi-follower bilevel formulation, with the energy system model as the leader and the general equilibrium players (firms and household) as followers. The Stackelberg equilibrium from this bilevel formulation pareto-dominates the Nash equilibrium from the other model setups in some problem instances, and is identical in the remaining problem instances. Different ways to couple the mathematical models may result in different solutions, because the coupling represents different real-world situations.publishedVersion© 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)

    Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis

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    The present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed

    Variations on the Author

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    “Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship

    Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis

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    We provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis

    Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts

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    We conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more sophisticated methods

    Author Index

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    Nao informado

    koamabayili/VECTRON-author-checklist: VECTRON author checklist

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    We have done our best to complete the author checklist relating to the use of animals in the hut study. Note that the objective for the hut study was to evaluate the IRS treatment applications for residual efficacy against Anopheles mosquitoes, including the local An. coluzzii mosquito population. Cows were only used to attract mosquitoes into the huts and no tests were carried out directly on the cows. The author checklist is intended for use with studies where experiments are carried out on animals, which is why we have had such difficulty in completing this for the hut study, as many of the questions do not relate to how the cows were used
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