162,123 research outputs found
Hay Price Forecasts at the State Level
No full textHigher prices for major crops (e.g., corn, soybeans and wheat) have received considerable attention by analysts, researchers, and producers. A common perception is that acres can be readily bid away from other crops to quickly return to equilibrium price levels. Seldom mentioned are crops that do not trade on a national platform. Principal among these crops probably would be hay from alfalfa and grass. A balance sheet model is developed at the state level for South Dakota. As a state with typically large carryover stocks of hay and multiple markets served, South Dakota presents a stark contrast to states with more stable production, supply, and use. Several structural relations and equations are presented to forecast acres, supply, and price through an inverse demand function. A discussion follows on how to update the price forecast as additional information is obtained. Suggestions are also offered on extending the model to other states.alfalfa price, feed demand, perennial crop, hay stocks, Agricultural Finance,
Hay Price Forecasts at the State Level
No full textHigher prices for major crops (e.g., corn, soybeans and wheat) have received considerable attention by analysts, researchers, and producers. A common perception is that acres can be readily bid away from other crops to quickly return to equilibrium price levels. Seldom mentioned are crops that do not trade on a national platform. Principal among these crops probably would be hay from alfalfa and grass. A balance sheet model is developed at the state level for South Dakota. As a state with typically large carryover stocks of hay and multiple markets served, South Dakota presents a stark contrast to states with more stable production, supply, and use. Several structural relations and equations are presented to forecast acres, supply, and price through an inverse demand function. A discussion follows on how to update the price forecast as additional information is obtained. Suggestions are also offered on extending the model to other states.alfalfa price, feed demand, perennial crop, hay stocks
SEQUENTIAL STOCHASTIC PRODUCTION DECISIONS FOR A PERENNIAL CROP: THE YIELD/QUALITY TRADEOFF FOR ALFALFA HAY
No full textThe "optimal cutting schedule" for alfalfa hay is described as a function of the trade-off between rising yield and falling quality of alfalfa over time and the local market prices being offered for different qualities of hay during the harvest season. Field test results quantify the yield/quality tradeoff for a California case study. A general decision rule is then derived to assist growers in making cutting decisions during a season. Finally, the optimal cutting schedule is shown to be the sum of sequential decisions for cuttings throughout the harvest season, with no schedule being best a priori.Crop Production/Industries,
Factors Affecting Hay Supply and Demand in Tennessee
No full textUnderstanding the interactions between supply and demand for hay is important because of hay’s significance to the agricultural sector and economy, and because hay is an important crop on highly erodible soils. As an example, Tennessee has the most erodible cultivated cropland in the United States (Denton, 2000), nearly half of the state’s current CRP acreage contracts are set to expire in 2007 (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2006), and hay is one of the most economically important crops produced in the state (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2004). Cross (1999) attributed the upward trend in Tennessee hay acreage since 1980 to an increasing number of farmers who were searching for alternative production activities, such as hay, pasture and livestock, to replace row crops on erodible soils (U.S. Congress, House of Representatives and Senate, 2002). Hay ranked tenth in value of receipts in Tennessee at 500 million. Hay ranked second in value of production at 248 million over a five period from 2002 – 2006. Underscoring the importance of hay in Tennessee was the state’s national ranking of fourth in the production of other hay (excluding alfalfa) at 4.25 million tons in 2006 (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2007). To quantify these supply and demand relationships, one must understand the characteristics of hay markets. Markets are usually localized because of the weight and bulky physical characteristics of hay. Although hay species are not identical, in many livestock production situations most are close substitutes, with the possible exception of alfalfa hay. In Tennessee, alfalfa is a differentiated hay product used mostly by dairy and equine producers. Nevertheless, alfalfa constituted only 2.5% of all hay produced in Tennessee in 2003 (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2004) and its price tends to move proportionally with other hay prices; thus, for modeling purposes alfalfa and other hay can be aggregated as in Shumway’s (1983) study of Texas field crops and treated as a composite commodity (Nicholson, 2005) called hay. In 2002, 47,000 operations within the state produced forage, while on the demand side, 50,000 operations were involved in beef and dairy production with another 24,000 equine operations (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2004). Despite the lack of national and state central markets for hay (Cross, 1999), buyers and sellers seem to be aware of the current prices in their area. Word of mouth, a hay directory website (Tennessee Farm Bureau Federation, 2005), and the Farm Facts bulletin (Tennessee Agricultural Statistics Service, 2004) are among the primary outlets for price discovery (Rawls, September 2004). Hay producers are typically assumed to be price takers (Shumway, 1983) because of the large numbers of sellers and buyers; nevertheless, search costs and price differentials can result from the lack of a central market. Even though hay and livestock producers have avenues for price determination in the short run, they have little information about what causes supply and demand for hay to change from year to year. The overall objective of this research was to illustrate how the understanding of hay markets can provide valuable information to hay and livestock producers and agricultural policymakers. Using the Tennessee hay market as an example, the specific objectives were to: 1) determine the factors that influence Tennessee hay supply and quantify their effects, 2) determine the factors that influence Tennessee hay demand and quantify their effects, and 3) briefly illustrate the importance of hay supply and demand information to policymakers. Estimating factors that influence hay supply and demand can help to provide hay and livestock producers with valuable information for making more informed business decisions and policymakers with insight into how proposed agricultural policies might affect hay and livestock producers. To accomplish the objectives, Tennessee hay supply and demand were modeled econometrically, and the coefficients of the models were used to quantify hay acreage, yield, and price responses to the factors that influence the Tennessee hay market. The results were then used to briefly illustrate the potential impacts on the 2008 Tennessee hay price from the retirement of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) acreage in 2007. Hay acreage proved to be fairly unresponsive to output and input prices in both the short and long runs. The weak response of hay acreage to own and substitute crop prices may result from many hay producers also being cattle producers that harvest their own hay in an effort to guarantee a reliable supply of roughage to feed their herds throughout the winter months. They might be willing to give up potentially higher profits from a production alternative to avert the risk of feed shortages for their cattle. The hay price appeared to be responsive to real per capita income with a price flexibility of 1.55. This finding is reasonable because an increase in real per capita income results in more purchasing power for a typical household. As purchasing power increases, one would expect beef consumption to increase because beef is a normal good (Schroeder and Mark, 1999). Increased beef consumption would positively influence the derived demand for beef production inputs; hence, increased demand for hay. A weak response of hay price to the quantity of hay produced (HPRODt) could be explained by the hay market structure. First, some livestock farmers may produce large amounts of hay for their own livestock, much of which is not sold on the market. These farmers may be able to produce hay at a lower cost than market price, or they may be willing to forgo the potential cost savings from buying hay from an off-farm source to avert the risk of feed shortages for their cattle. Additionally, unlike the market for corn or cattle, the hay market is much less organized and structured. Farmers producing hay for the cash market have no nearby and convenient grain elevator or auction market at which to sell their product. Weak response to changes in hay quantity and price suggests that hay farmers may not be driven solely by the profit motive. Instead, other motives may also enter into their objective functions as utility maximizers.acreage response, derived demand, elasticities, hay, inverse demand function, price flexibilities, yield response, Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis, D,
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
No full textThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts
No full textWe conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued
use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation
counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more
sophisticated methods
Randomised controlled trial of screening for Chlamydia trachomatis to prevent pelvic inflammatory disease: the POPI (prevention of pelvic infection) trial.
No full textOBJECTIVE: To determine whether screening and treating women for chlamydial infection reduces the incidence of pelvic inflammatory disease over the subsequent 12 months.
DESIGN: Randomised controlled trial.
SETTING: Common rooms, lecture theatres, and student bars at universities and further education colleges in London. PARTICIPANTS: 2529 sexually active female students, mean age 21 years (range 16-27).
INTERVENTION: Participants completed a questionnaire and provided self taken vaginal swabs, with follow-up after one year. Samples were randomly allocated to immediate testing and treatment for chlamydial infection, or storage and analysis after a year (deferred screening controls).
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Incidence of clinical pelvic inflammatory disease over 12 months.
RESULTS: Baseline prevalence of chlamydia was 5.4% (68/1254) in screened women and 5.9% (75/1265) in controls. 94% (2377/2529) of women were followed up after 12 months. The incidence of pelvic inflammatory disease was 1.3% (15/1191) in screened women compared with 1.9% (23/1186) in controls (relative risk 0.65, 95% confidence interval 0.34 to 1.22). Seven of 74 control women (9.5%, 95% confidence interval 4.7% to 18.3%) who tested positive for chlamydial infection at baseline developed pelvic inflammatory disease over 12 months compared with one of 63 (1.6%) screened women (relative risk 0.17, 0.03 to 1.01). However, most episodes of pelvic inflammatory disease occurred in women who tested negative for chlamydia at baseline (79%, 30/38). 22% (527/2377) of women reported being tested independently for chlamydia during the trial.
CONCLUSION: Although some evidence suggests that screening for chlamydia reduces rates of pelvic inflammatory disease, especially in women with chlamydial infection at baseline, the effectiveness of a single chlamydia test in preventing pelvic inflammatory disease over 12 months may have been overestimated
Body weight and statistic vital of Texel sheep in Wonosobo District by giving the ramie hay as an additional woof
No full textAbstract. Kuntjoro A, Sutarno, Astirin OP. 2009. Body weight and statistic vital of Texel sheep in Wonosobo District by giving the
ramie hay as an additional woof. Nusantara Bioscience 1: 23-30. This research is aimed to observe the body weight and statistic vital
measurement of 50 Texel sheep. Sheep are classified into five treatments of giving woof P0 (giving tree greenish woof without
concentrate), P1 (giving greenish woof and concentrate without adding the ramie hay/0%) concentrate), P2 (giving greenish woof and
concentrate by adding 10%) ramie hay), P3 (giving greenish woof and concentrate by adding 20%) ramie hay), P4 (giving greenish
woof and concentrate by adding 30%) ramie hay), every treatment was repeated 10 times. The result shows that even it can’t yet replace
the concentrate function, but adding ramie hay as much as 10%), 20%) and 30%) on sheep woof can increase the body weight’s growth
respectively 186.67 g/day, 153.34 g/day dan 103.34 g/day. The addition of ramie hay 10%), 20%) and 30%) can increase the addition of
statistic vital’s measurement on breast of sheep livestock 1.20 cm); 0.95 cm) and 0.90 cm); the addition of statistic vital measurement on
the body length of sheep livestock 0.05 cm); 1.00 cm) and 0.75 cm) and also the addition of breast width is 1.50 cm); 0.15 cm) and 0.3
cm). Meanwhile the addition of ramie hay on livestock woof can only increase the addition of statistic vital mesurement on breast at
giving 30%) as big as 0.15 cm). It is needed to know further on giving ramie hay by concentration comparasion of hay of different leaf
and stem
Production of Hay milk
No full textThe investigation carried out in this thesis is based on data collected on three organic dairy farms in southern Jutland in Denmark. Two of these farms supplied feedstuff analyses of their hay, and one additional farmer besides these three took part in an interview on their use of hay feeding and production of haymilk.
The sale of dairy products made of haymilk has increased substantially in Austria over the past few years to 4,200 tons of cheese sold in 2011. Haymilk based dairy products are currently being sold in Germany and the interest is increasing in Switzerland. 83 tons of haymilk based cheeses were sold in Denmark in 2011, and there appears to be a market potential haymilk based dairy products in Denmark. The main objective of this thesis was to improve the decision basis for farmers considering switching from silage feeding to hay feeding of their lactating dairy cows.
A semi-structured group interview with four haymilk producing farmers showed that they had been inspired by other farmers abroad, who produce haymilk, and motivated by a belief in hay being healthier for their cows as well as the ability to obtain a premium for their milk. The interview furthermore showed that their workload was increased in summer and decreased in winter, although the overall workload was more enjoyable now.
No clear effect of conservation method on chemical composition of hays and silages were found, although a trend for lower CP and higher NDF content per kg of DM were seen in hay compared with silage. Structural properties measured with peNDF and CT was found to be more related to TCL and season, which was indicated by cutting number, than used conservation method.
The analysis of lactation curves, which was based on data obtained from three of the haymilk producing farmers, showed that DH cows in parity one and parity three or greater had achieved a higher persistency by switching to hay feeding, albeit their peak yields were reduced with 1.1 and 0.4 kg ECM per day respectively. No difference was found for DH cows in parity two and Jersey cows in parity one and parity two, but Jersey cows in parity three or greater had their peak yield reduced by 1.1 kg ECM per day. Fat and protein percentage increased for DH cows in parity one and parity three or greater. Protein percentage furthermore increased for Jersey cows in parity one whereas no difference was found for the other groups of cows.
The feeding software NorFor predicted hay fed cows to have a lower DMI and ECM production per day when compared with silage fed cows. This clear effect could not be confirmed in the literature as both an increasing and decreasing as well as an unchanged effect was seen. The somatic cell count was decreased for all groups of cows by switching to hay feeding except for DH cows in parity three or greater, which increased, and DH cows in parity one where no difference was found.
The cost of producing one FU of hay was estimated to be 0.70 kroner larger compared with silage (2.77 versus 2.07 kroner per FU). This resulted in a difference in feed cost between 0.19 and 0.56 kroner per kg ECM depending on the ration and the assumed effect of switching to hay feeding on DMI and daily ECM production. The simulated difference between hay and silage feeding was between a loss of 0.01 and a gain of 0.04 kroner per kg ECM across six scenarios tested on seven different types of herds or between -161 and 450 kroner per annual cow
Intergenerational 20 year trends in the prevalence of asthma and hay fever in adults: the Midspan family study surveys of parents and offspring
No full text<b>Objective</b>: To estimate trends between 1972-6 and 1996 in the prevalences of asthma and hay fever in adults.
Design: Two epidemiological surveys 20 years apart. Identical questions were asked about asthma, hay fever, and respiratory symptoms at each survey.
Setting: Renfrew and Paisley, two towns in the west of Scotland.
<b>Subjects</b>: 1477 married couples aged 45-64 participated in a general population survey in 1972-6; and 2338 offspring aged 30-59 participated in a 1996 survey. Prevalences were compared in 1708 parents and 1124 offspring aged 45-54.
<b>Main outcome measures</b>: Prevalences of asthma, hay fever, and respiratory symptoms.
Results: In never smokers, age and sex standardised prevalences of asthma and hay fever were 3.0% and 5.8% respectively in 1972-6, and 8.2% and 19.9% in 1996. In ever smokers, the corresponding values were 1.6% and 5.4% in 1972-6 and 5.3% and 15.5% in 1996. In both generations, the prevalence of asthma was higher in those who reported hay fever (atopic asthma). In never smokers, reports of wheeze not labelled as asthma were about 10 times more common in 1972-6 than in 1996. With a broader definition of asthma (asthma and/or wheeze), to minimise diagnostic bias, the overall prevalence of asthma changed little. However, diagnostic bias mainly affected non-atopic asthma. Atopic asthma increased more than twofold (prevalence ratio 2.52 (95% confidence interval 1.01 to 6.28)) whereas the prevalence of non-atopic asthma did not change (1.00 (0.53 to 1.90)).
<b>Conclusion</b>: The prevalence of asthma in adults has increased more than twofold in 20 years, largely in association with trends in atopy, as measured indirectly by the prevalence of hay fever. No evidence was found for an increase in diagnostic awareness being responsible for the trend in atopic asthma, but increased awareness may account for trends in non-atopic asthma
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