627 research outputs found
A new mobility index for Trandition Matrices
No full textThis work treats the construction of a mobility index able to grasp the prevailing
direction in the dynamics ruled by a given transition matrix. The states of
the matrix are based on an ordered economic variable, such as firm size, income
or ratings, for which the future state can be better or worse than the current one.
We propose here a whole family of directional indices, evaluated as a function
of the transition matrix, and defined so that their absolute value measures the intensity
of mobility, and their sign (+/-) represents the prevailing direction towards
improvement/worsening in the dynamics under study
Statistical regularity of firm size distribution: the Pareto IV and truncated Yule for Italian SCI manufacturing
No full textFirm size distribution, Pareto distributions, Yule distribution, Gibrat’s Law, L11, L60, C16,
Mover-Stayer Model in an Industrial Area: a first application
No full textIn the last decade the District of Prato has suffered a deep shrinkage of exports and Added Value of its textile industry which is the core of the overall economy of the same small area.In this paper we want to investigate if the same shrinkage has involved a firm size downsizing-measured in number of employees- both of the textile industry and the overall economy of the District. For this purpose we use the Mover Stayer Model (MS), which advantage is the possibility to consider firms heterogeneity, necessarily ignored in classical Discrete Markov Chains. The used estimators are Goodman (1961) and Frydman (1984). Of this second estimator we point out the necessity to restrain its validity both on applied and a priori mathematical ground.
Data are represented by two fix panels formed from ASIA-ISTAT.
Firm size equilibrium distributions are simulated
A new mobility index for transition matrices
No full textIn this work we construct a mobility index able to grasp the prevailing
direction in the evolution of a given set of statistical units. We consider the case of
dynamics ruled by a transition matrix, whose states are based on an ordered economic
variable (firm size or income, among others) such that the future position of an
individual can be better or worse than the current one. The existing indices measure
only the absolute value of mobility, without providing information about the main
direction in the dynamics. We propose here a whole family of directional indices
defined as functions of the transition matrix, so that their absolute value measures the
intensity of mobility, and their sign (+/−) represents the prevailing direction towards
improvement/worsening in the dynamics under study
Scale Economies and Heterogeneity in Business Money Demand: the Italian Experience
No full textThis paper investigates the demand for money by firms and the existence of economies of scale in the Italian manufacturing industry. We estimate a model for cash elaborated by Fujiki and Mulligan (1996) using a different estimation procedure from the previous literature. We then introduce an iterative procedure based on backward exclusion of firms from model estimation which points out the high heterogeneity of Italian companies inmoney demand. Our estimates show that Italian Manufacturing industry, considered as a whole, does not enjoy scale economies in money demand. However our iterative procedure points out that the cause of this result has to be ascribed to small firms which are characterized by thin cash money holdings and a consequent very modest opportunity cost
Testing Gibrat's law in Italian macro-regions:analysis on a panel of mechanical companies
No full textThe present paper deals with the question whether “Gibrat’s law” is applicable to Italian mechanical companies active between 1997 and 1999 or not. The analysis was carried at a spatial level splitting companies in four macro-regions: North- West, North – East, Centre and South. On the basis of a set of descriptive and inferential tools, we find that firm size, measured by total assets, follows approximately a log-normal distribution in at least two of the four analyzed macro-regions. Nevertheless log-normality is only one necessary but not sufficient condition for the validity of the Gibrat’s law. Thus we analyzed the influence of firm size on growth rate finding a negative relation between the two variables in all macro-regions. This is a clear violation of Gibrat’s law. Another violation was found by the application of an econometric model which evidences the persistence of growth
Gini's transvariation analysis: an application on financial crises in developing countries
No full textThe damage and the recurrence of financial crises have increased the
concern of investors and policymakers on one hand and the interest of macroeconomists
on the other. This paper presents an original non parametric methodology,
whose aim is to give a very intuitive and rigorous method for variable selection in
order to analyse financial crises. Transvariation analysis compares the distributions
of two different groups of countries (sound and distressed) with respect to a single
macroeconomic variable and selects the indicators on the basis of a low transvariation
probability index. The current account deficit to GDP ratio, differently
from other studies on financial crises, seems to be a suitable variable in discriminating
distressed countries from sound ones, and the case of Argentina and Turkey
confirms this finding
Could they grow faster? An explorative and counterfactual exercise of the Firms’ Core during the Golden Age in Italy
No full textThe firms’ size distribution in the Italian Golden age has been described as a
successful example of the adoption of the big business model which is characterized
by large firms able to exploit the economies of scale of the modern technologies. Two
main questions are present in literature: was it enough or could have been done
better? Are the two decades homogeneous? The paper tries to answer to these
questions observing a panel of a Core of firms, estimating their changing of size
distribution and the tendency to upsize, by the Mover-Stayer model. The upsizing of
firms emerges clearly, considering the distribution among the size classes in the years
1950, 1960 and 1970, the transition matrices and directional index which shows a
rate of growth more than considerable and a strong tendency to upsizing of firms in
every class. Moreover, the equilibrium distribution is characterized by a relevant
increase of the frequencies in the last two classes. A slowdown of the growth of the
size in the last years of the second decade appears too, but the remarkable shift of
frequencies on the last two classes - both of the effective and equilibrium
distribution- point anyway to a success story. The difference observed in the
equilibrium configuration according to 1960-1970 decade, shows a stronger shift of frequencies on the right of the distribution and it seems to confirm the traditionally
observed effect of a more selective industrial policy at sectorial level - in the second
part of the Sixties - than to an early presence of the perverse effect of intrusive policy in management
Monetary regimes and statistical regularity: the Classical Gold Standard (1880-1913) through the lenses of Markov models
No full textWe aim at characterizing the Classical Gold Standard period (CGS) in order
to verify if it is endowed with statistical regularity. We study the statistical properties of
two-state annual transition matrices of countries switching from a sound state to a crisis
state focusing on Reinhart and Rogoff 2009 dataset on external debt crises. The CGS
period is governed by homogeneity both in time and across statistical units: the Homogeneous
Markov Chain Model holds whereas the Mover Stayer Model does not. Our work is
linked to the literature on the CGS and credibility (Bordo and Rockoff 1996). We follow a
pure statistical approach to highlight two decisive channels of the credibility mechanism.
The first is the stabilization of the probability of default of sound countries. The second
is the fact that the CGS makes periphery/deficit countries homogeneous to the core with
respect to the probability of default. Both channels are decisive because poor developing
countries can borrow at favorable conditions and finance a level of investment greater than
their capacity of saving
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