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Schülerinnenvorstellungen Schülervorstellungen
Verfasserin Flora Maria BolterMasterarbeit Universität Innsbruck 202
Schülerinnenvorstellungen Schülervorstellungen
Verfasserin Flora Maria BolterMasterarbeit Universität Innsbruck 202
Essays on Energy Markets
In the general framework of the raising global environmental concerns, the energy market is facing the challenge of decarbonization. This translates in raising shares of renewable generation, in increasing competition, and in the need of having a reliable power system with security of supply during the process of low-carbon transition.
This thesis analyses some of the most relevant recent changes in the power market relatively to the European area, evaluating different measures that have been recently implemented, or whose implementation has been planned.
Specifically, it investigates the role and scope of the European Union Emission Trading System, its impact on the electricity generation sector and ways in which it could be more effective; it looks upon capacity markets, and, in particular, the pricing of reliability options; and, finally, it provides tools for a dynamic interconnector valuation in the context of the growing European market integration. Each theme is analyzed using different instruments, such as real option theory, Monte Carlo analysis and stochastic control theory
Price dynamics in the European Union Emissions Trading System and evaluation of its ability to boost emission-related investment decisions
The price of permits in the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) has historically been highly sensitive and prone to jumps. We consider different stochastic processes to model the price of permits, and show that the Variance Gamma (VG) model provides the best fit for the price distribution, among a selection of infinite activity processes. Using this result as a starting point, we assess the effects of the EU ETS in delivering low-carbon investments at the firm level, by modeling a price taker electricity producer subject to the EU ETS jurisdiction. We compute, via Least Squares Monte Carlo, the value of the real option the greenhouse gas emitter has, consisting in the opportunity to switch from its current high-carbon technology to a cleaner one. We use a VG specification for carbon prices, and a mean-reverting (Brennan–Schwartz) process for the price of fuel. Moreover, we further analyze the investment decision problem, in case of a CO2 price stabilization mechanism in th..
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
The present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
The Liquidity Uncertainty Premium Puzzle
The puzzling negative relation between liquidity uncertainty and asset returns, originally put forward by Chordia, Subrahmanyam, and Anshuman (2001) and confirmed by the subsequent empirical literature up to date, is neither robust to the aggregation period, nor to the observation frequency used to compute the volatility of trading volume. We demonstrate that their procedure involves an estimation bias due to the persistence and skewness of volumes. When using an alternative approach based on high-frequency data to measure liquidity uncertainty, the relationship turns out to be positive. However, portfolio strategies based on liquidity uncertainty do not appear to be profitable
Green investment and asset stranding under transition scenario uncertainty
Risks and opportunities related to environmental transition are usually evaluated through the use of scenarios, produced and maintained by international bodies such as the International Energy Agency. This approach assumes perfect knowledge of the scenario by the agent, but in reality, scenario uncertainty is an important obstacle for making optimal investment or divestment decisions. In this paper, we develop a real-options approach to evaluate assets and potential investment projects under dynamic climate transition scenario uncertainty. We use off-the-shelf Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) scenarios and assume that the economic agent acquires the information about the scenario progressively by observing a signal, such as the carbon price or the greenhouse gas emissions. The problem of valuing an investment is formulated as an American option pricing problem, where the optimal exercise time corresponds to the time of entering a potential investment project or the time of selling a potentially stranded asset. To illustrate our approach, we employ representative scenarios from the scenario database of the Network for Greening the Financial System in two energy-related examples: the divestment decision from a coal-fired power plant without Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technology and the potential investment into a green coal-fired power plant with CCS. In both cases, we find that the real option value is very sensitive to scenario uncertainty: the value of the coal-fired power plant is reduced by 25% and that of the green coal investment project is reduced by 7% when the agent deduces the scenario by observing carbon emissions, compared to the setting when the true scenario is known. We also find that scenario uncertainty can lead to considerable delays in the implementation of green investment projects, emphasizing the importance of timely and precise climate policy information
Variations on the Author
“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
We provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
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