163 research outputs found
Dr. Yucel Yanikdag – Faculty Author Interview
No full textDr. Yucel Yanikdag, Associate Professor of History discusses his new book, Healing the Nation: Prisoners of War, Medicine and Nationalism in Turkey, 1914-1939, published recently by Edinburgh University Press. In this book, he explores how Ottoman prisoners of war and military doctors of the First World War discursively constructed their nation as a community, and at the same time attempted to exclude certain groups from that nation. Yanikdag aims to broaden the discussion of nationalism to explore how ideological and biological factors influenced each other
Effectiveness of monetary policy: evidence from Turkey
No full textDue to copyright restrictions, the access to the full text of this article is only available via subscription.An effective monetary policy framework is often viewed as a pre-condition for well-functioning financial markets. Yet measuring monetary policy effectiveness is not straightforward; it requires empirical work to understand the impact of financial infrastructure, competitiveness of financial markets, and current economic conditions. In particular, monetary policy effectiveness depends on the extent to which the chosen interest rate affects all other financial prices—including the entire term structure of interest rates, credit rates, exchange rates, and asset prices. This paper examines the effectiveness of monetary policy in Turkey by focusing on interest rate pass-through outcomes by way of an interacted vector autoregressive (IVAR) approach. The results suggest that policy-led rate changes are fully transmitted to deposit and credit rates within eight months. Competition in the banking sector (as well as that sector’s liquidity and profitability), dollarization, exchange rate flexibility, inflation, and term structure all have a positive effect on interest rate pass-through; whereas regulatory quality, GDP growth, monetary growth, industrial growth, and capital inflows have a negative effect. Using various tests, we find that the effect of financial development and macroeconomic variables on interest rate pass-through is neither robust nor time-invariant
Performance of inflation targeting in retrospect
No full textBoth inflation and inflation expectations declined considerably in the inflation targeting countries during the past two decades. The questions of whether this decline has actually been an outcome of inflation targeting solely and whether inflation targeting has been successful in stabilizing other macroeconomic variables though remain. This study considers these questions on the basis of 16 inflation targeting countries and 21 non-targeting ones using a difference-in-difference approach. With regard to the baseline period of 1996–1999 during which neither of the groups was implementing inflation targeting, a difference-in-difference approach was employed to assess the effects of inflation targeting on inflation, output growth, real exchange rates, inflation volatility and real exchange rate volatility during moving 4-year periods between 2007 and 2015. Our estimates suggest that inflation targeting was superior in terms of harnessing inflation as well as inflation volatility. In terms of economic growth, however, inflation targeting seems to be neutral and in terms of real exchange rates it seems not to be stabilizing, if not de-stabilizing. A hybrid version of inflation targeting, namely the conventional inflation targeting augmented by an improved capacity to deliver macro-prudence as in the post-Lehman economic climate, can therefore be viewed as the best available policy alternative for the upcoming decades
Return and Maturity Relationship for Treasury Auctions: Theory and Evidence From Turkey / Hakan Berument and Ery M. Yucel
No full textClick to Download Data : An Event Study of Internet Access to Economic Statistics
No full textThis study examines the online access statistics of the Central Bank of Turkey's Electronic Data Delivery System within an event study framework. The comparisons of pre-event and post-event statistics suggest that announcements of both the policy interest rates and the consumer price data considerably affect society's data access behavior. The timing and amplitude of these effects are further studied with respect to inflation expectations and surprise content of events; yet no solid pattern was revealed.Data access, Macroeconomic data, Market efficiency, Event study
Estimation and forecasting of PM10 air pollution in Ankara via time series and harmonic regressions
No full textIn this study, monthly particulate matter (PM10) values in Ankara (39.9334° N, 32.8597° E) from January 1993 to December 2017 are examined. The PM10 are those thoracic particles whose aerodynamic diameter is less than 10 μm (micrometers), and it is of critical health importance due to the penetrability to the lower airways. As an alternative to classical unit root tests, a unit root test primarily based on periodograms is introduced owing to its advantages over alternatives. After examining the stationarity of the series through periodogram-based test as well as its standard rivals, periodic components in the series are examined and it is observed that the series has both periodic and seasonal components. These components are modeled, using the inherent dynamics of a time series alone, within a trigonometric harmonic regression setup, eventually yielding the forecast values for 2018 that turns out to be superior to those obtained by means of ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average). This is a striking result since the modeling framework requires no assumptions, no parameter estimations except for the variance of the white noise series, no simulations of the power of tests, no adjustments of test statistics with respect to sample size and no preliminary work as to independent variable which is simply time, i.e., the period of forecast
A Review and Bibliography of Early Warning Models
No full textThis note is intended to share some observations regarding a non-exhaustive collection of the early warning literature from 1971 to 2011. Evolution of the interest in early warning models, methodological spectrum of studies and coverage of economic variables are briefly discussed in addition to providing a bibliography.Early warning systems, bibliometric analysis
A Review and Bibliography of Early Warning Models
No full textThis note is intended to share some observations regarding a non-exhaustive collection of the early warning literature from 1971 to 2011. Evolution of the interest in early warning models, methodological spectrum of studies and coverage of economic variables are briefly discussed in addition to providing a bibliography
İktisat Politikasının Tasarımı - Design of Economic Policy
No full textIn this study, economic policy is treated as a design problem and is discussed in its multiple dimensions
"Financial crisis, monetary policy reform and the monetary transmission mechanism in Turkey"
No full textTurkey experienced a financial crisis in 2000-2001 which led to significant financial reforms. The reforms resulted in a switch to a floating exchange rate, granted greater central bank independence and pursuit of a more credible monetary policy. Investigation of the channels of monetary policy in both periods finds that monetary policy’s output effects have been strengthened considerable by the reforms. In the pre-crisis period monetary policy was highly inflationary, while in the post-crisis period, monetary policy targets low inflation and has become a tool for output stabilization. These results support the importance of central bank independence and a credible policy.monetary transmission mechanism, central bank independence, inflation targeting.
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