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KLIMATSKI TRENDOVI, VARIJABILNOST I EKSTREMI U JADRANSKOM PODRUČJU NA TEMELJU MODELIRANJA NA KILOMETARSKOJ SKALI
No full textThis thesis explores the novel application of an ultra-high-resolution atmosphere-ocean model, Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC), to simulate the complex climate of the Adriatic region. The kilometre-scale resolution of AdriSC allows for the precise simulation of local processes such as bora dynamics and dense water formation, which are crucial in shaping the regional climate. The model proves effective in capturing the BiOS–driven variability in the Adriatic Sea, previously unaddressed by coarser resolution models. Extensive and profound changes in trends, variability, and extremes in the Adriatic region, due to ongoing and projected future climate variations, are identified and quantified: (1) strong land-sea contrasts in the atmosphere, (2) intensification of the heatwaves and most likely of the extreme rainfalls and droughts, (3) dense water formation in the northern Adriatic likely to be strongly reduced, (4) potential intensification of the surface saline lake effect during summer, (5) southern Adriatic cyclonic gyre likely to be shrinking and intensifying, and (6) strengthening of the vertical stratification over the SAP. Given the potential negative impact of these climate events for environment, humans, and for various economic sectors, understanding, and predicting these changes is crucial for policymakers and local communities to develop effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. Consequently, the AdriSC climate simulation might be eventually generalized by implementing and running an ensemble of kilometre-scale atmosphere-ocean models under more climate scenarios in the Adriatic region, but in a smart way taking into account an extensive computational demand that such simulations require.Ova disertacija istražuje primjenu združenog atmosfersko-oceanskog modela ultra-visoke rezolucije, Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC), za simulaciju složene klime jadranskog područja. Kilometarska razlučivost AdriSC modela omogućuje vjerodostojnu simulaciju lokalnih procesa poput dinamike bure i stvaranja guste vode, koji su ključni za oblikovanje regionalne klime atmosphere i mora. Model se pokazao učinkovitim u reproduciranju varijabilnosti u Jadranskom moru uzrokovanoj Jadransko-jonskom bimodalnom oscilacijom (BiOS), što prijašnji modeli, s grubljom razlučivosti, nisu postigli. Identificirane su i kvantificirane sveobuhvatne i značajne promjene u trendovima, varijabilnosti i ekstremima u jadranskom području zbog aktualnih i predviđenih budućih klimatskih promjena: (1) snažni kontrasti kopno-more u atmosferi, (2) intenzifikacija toplinskih valova i posljedično ekstremnih oborina i suša, (3) smanjenje stvaranja guste vode u sjevernom Jadranu, (4) potencijalno jačanje efekta površinskih slanih jezera tijekom ljeta, (5) smanjenje obujma uz istovremeno jačanje južnojadranskog ciklonalnog vrtloga, te (6) jačanje vertikalne stratifikacije u Južnojadranskoj kotlini. S obzirom na negativne učinke takvih klimatskih promjena na ljude i različite gospodarske sektore, razumijevanje i predviđanje ovih promjena ključno je za donositelje odluka i lokalne zajednice kako bi razvili učinkovite strategije prilagodbe i ublažavanja. Stoga je preporuka ovaj prototip kilometarskog klimatskog modela primijeniti i za analize ansambla klimatskih simulacija za više scenarija klimatskih promjena u jadranskom području, pri tom primijenjujući “pametnu” optimizaciju računalnih resursa koje ovakve simulacije zahtijevaju
KLIMATSKI TRENDOVI, VARIJABILNOST I EKSTREMI U JADRANSKOM PODRUČJU NA TEMELJU MODELIRANJA NA KILOMETARSKOJ SKALI
No full textThis thesis explores the novel application of an ultra-high-resolution atmosphere-ocean model, Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC), to simulate the complex climate of the Adriatic region. The kilometre-scale resolution of AdriSC allows for the precise simulation of local processes such as bora dynamics and dense water formation, which are crucial in shaping the regional climate. The model proves effective in capturing the BiOS–driven variability in the Adriatic Sea, previously unaddressed by coarser resolution models. Extensive and profound changes in trends, variability, and extremes in the Adriatic region, due to ongoing and projected future climate variations, are identified and quantified: (1) strong land-sea contrasts in the atmosphere, (2) intensification of the heatwaves and most likely of the extreme rainfalls and droughts, (3) dense water formation in the northern Adriatic likely to be strongly reduced, (4) potential intensification of the surface saline lake effect during summer, (5) southern Adriatic cyclonic gyre likely to be shrinking and intensifying, and (6) strengthening of the vertical stratification over the SAP. Given the potential negative impact of these climate events for environment, humans, and for various economic sectors, understanding, and predicting these changes is crucial for policymakers and local communities to develop effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. Consequently, the AdriSC climate simulation might be eventually generalized by implementing and running an ensemble of kilometre-scale atmosphere-ocean models under more climate scenarios in the Adriatic region, but in a smart way taking into account an extensive computational demand that such simulations require.Ova disertacija istražuje primjenu združenog atmosfersko-oceanskog modela ultra-visoke rezolucije, Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC), za simulaciju složene klime jadranskog područja. Kilometarska razlučivost AdriSC modela omogućuje vjerodostojnu simulaciju lokalnih procesa poput dinamike bure i stvaranja guste vode, koji su ključni za oblikovanje regionalne klime atmosphere i mora. Model se pokazao učinkovitim u reproduciranju varijabilnosti u Jadranskom moru uzrokovanoj Jadransko-jonskom bimodalnom oscilacijom (BiOS), što prijašnji modeli, s grubljom razlučivosti, nisu postigli. Identificirane su i kvantificirane sveobuhvatne i značajne promjene u trendovima, varijabilnosti i ekstremima u jadranskom području zbog aktualnih i predviđenih budućih klimatskih promjena: (1) snažni kontrasti kopno-more u atmosferi, (2) intenzifikacija toplinskih valova i posljedično ekstremnih oborina i suša, (3) smanjenje stvaranja guste vode u sjevernom Jadranu, (4) potencijalno jačanje efekta površinskih slanih jezera tijekom ljeta, (5) smanjenje obujma uz istovremeno jačanje južnojadranskog ciklonalnog vrtloga, te (6) jačanje vertikalne stratifikacije u Južnojadranskoj kotlini. S obzirom na negativne učinke takvih klimatskih promjena na ljude i različite gospodarske sektore, razumijevanje i predviđanje ovih promjena ključno je za donositelje odluka i lokalne zajednice kako bi razvili učinkovite strategije prilagodbe i ublažavanja. Stoga je preporuka ovaj prototip kilometarskog klimatskog modela primijeniti i za analize ansambla klimatskih simulacija za više scenarija klimatskih promjena u jadranskom području, pri tom primijenjujući “pametnu” optimizaciju računalnih resursa koje ovakve simulacije zahtijevaju
KLIMATSKI TRENDOVI, VARIJABILNOST I EKSTREMI U JADRANSKOM PODRUČJU NA TEMELJU MODELIRANJA NA KILOMETARSKOJ SKALI
No full textThis thesis explores the novel application of an ultra-high-resolution atmosphere-ocean model, Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC), to simulate the complex climate of the Adriatic region. The kilometre-scale resolution of AdriSC allows for the precise simulation of local processes such as bora dynamics and dense water formation, which are crucial in shaping the regional climate. The model proves effective in capturing the BiOS–driven variability in the Adriatic Sea, previously unaddressed by coarser resolution models. Extensive and profound changes in trends, variability, and extremes in the Adriatic region, due to ongoing and projected future climate variations, are identified and quantified: (1) strong land-sea contrasts in the atmosphere, (2) intensification of the heatwaves and most likely of the extreme rainfalls and droughts, (3) dense water formation in the northern Adriatic likely to be strongly reduced, (4) potential intensification of the surface saline lake effect during summer, (5) southern Adriatic cyclonic gyre likely to be shrinking and intensifying, and (6) strengthening of the vertical stratification over the SAP. Given the potential negative impact of these climate events for environment, humans, and for various economic sectors, understanding, and predicting these changes is crucial for policymakers and local communities to develop effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. Consequently, the AdriSC climate simulation might be eventually generalized by implementing and running an ensemble of kilometre-scale atmosphere-ocean models under more climate scenarios in the Adriatic region, but in a smart way taking into account an extensive computational demand that such simulations require.Ova disertacija istražuje primjenu združenog atmosfersko-oceanskog modela ultra-visoke rezolucije, Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC), za simulaciju složene klime jadranskog područja. Kilometarska razlučivost AdriSC modela omogućuje vjerodostojnu simulaciju lokalnih procesa poput dinamike bure i stvaranja guste vode, koji su ključni za oblikovanje regionalne klime atmosphere i mora. Model se pokazao učinkovitim u reproduciranju varijabilnosti u Jadranskom moru uzrokovanoj Jadransko-jonskom bimodalnom oscilacijom (BiOS), što prijašnji modeli, s grubljom razlučivosti, nisu postigli. Identificirane su i kvantificirane sveobuhvatne i značajne promjene u trendovima, varijabilnosti i ekstremima u jadranskom području zbog aktualnih i predviđenih budućih klimatskih promjena: (1) snažni kontrasti kopno-more u atmosferi, (2) intenzifikacija toplinskih valova i posljedično ekstremnih oborina i suša, (3) smanjenje stvaranja guste vode u sjevernom Jadranu, (4) potencijalno jačanje efekta površinskih slanih jezera tijekom ljeta, (5) smanjenje obujma uz istovremeno jačanje južnojadranskog ciklonalnog vrtloga, te (6) jačanje vertikalne stratifikacije u Južnojadranskoj kotlini. S obzirom na negativne učinke takvih klimatskih promjena na ljude i različite gospodarske sektore, razumijevanje i predviđanje ovih promjena ključno je za donositelje odluka i lokalne zajednice kako bi razvili učinkovite strategije prilagodbe i ublažavanja. Stoga je preporuka ovaj prototip kilometarskog klimatskog modela primijeniti i za analize ansambla klimatskih simulacija za više scenarija klimatskih promjena u jadranskom području, pri tom primijenjujući “pametnu” optimizaciju računalnih resursa koje ovakve simulacije zahtijevaju
ATMOSFERSKO-OCEANSKO KLIMATSKO MODELIRANJE VISOKE RAZLUČIVOSTI ZA PODRUČJE JADRANSKOGA MORA
No full textThe Adriatic region is characterized by extremely complex geomorphology and atmospheric and oceanic processes occurring at various temporal and spatial scales. Due to the relatively coarse horizontal resolution, regional climate models are not capable to resolve the coastal morphology of the Adriatic Sea nor reproduce the processes that occur on smaller spatial and shorter temporal scales. High-resolution climate modeling can be used to overcome these challenges and improve our understanding of the complex processes that drive the Adriatic atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Hence, a high-resolution atmosphere-ocean climate model, the Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC), has been developed for the Adriatic and northern Ionian seas. In order to describe the climate properties of the Adriatic, a 31-year-long (1987–2017) climate simulation was carried out with the AdriSC model. In this thesis, the performance of the AdriSC ocean simulation was thoroughly evaluated by comparing the model results with a comprehensive collection of remote sensing and in situ observational data. Furthermore, the results of the AdriSC simulation, the latest reanalysis product for the Mediterranean Sea and a long-time-running Adriatic Sea atmosphere-ocean forecast model used in both hindcast and data assimilation modes were compared in their ability to reproduce the Adriatic dense-water dynamics during the 2014–2015 period. The main advantages and disadvantages of the different modelling approaches were quantified and discussed. Lastly, a climatology of the Adriatic dense-water dynamics was derived from the results of the AdriSC climate simulation by analyzing the thermohaline properties of the Adriatic Sea during the 1987–2017 period.Područje Jadrana obilježava vrlo složena geomorfologija te procesi u atmosferi i moru koji se odvijaju na različitim vremenskim i prostornim skalama. Zbog relativno grube horizontalne razlučivosti, regionalni klimatski modeli nisu sposobni razlučiti obalnu morfologiju Jadranskoga mora ni reproducirati procese koji se odvijaju na manjim prostornim i kraćim vremenskim skalama. Za prevladavanje navedenih izazova i poboljšanje razumijevanja složenih procesa koji pokreću jadransku atmosfersku i oceansku cirkulaciju može se koristiti klimatsko modeliranje visoke razlučivosti. S tim ciljem razvijen je atmosfersko-oceanski klimatski model visoke razlučivosti Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) za područje Jadranskog i sjevernog Jonskog mora. Kako bi se opisala klimatska svojstva Jadrana, izvršena je 31-godišnja (od 1987. do 2017. godine) klimatska simulacija modelom AdriSC. U ovom radu, napravljena je temeljita evaluacija oceanske simulacije modela AdriSC usporedbom rezultata modela s opsežnim skupom podataka daljinskih i in situ mjerenja. Nadalje, rezultati simulacije AdriSC, najnovije reanalize za Sredozemno more i prognostičkog atmosfersko-oceanskog modela za Jadransko more korištenog za simulacije sa i bez asimilacije podataka, uspoređeni su na temelju njihove sposobnosti reproduciranja dinamike guste vode u Jadranu u razdoblju od 2014. do 2015. godine. Kvantificirane su i raspravljene glavne prednosti i nedostaci različitih pristupa numeričkom modeliranju guste vode. Naposljetku, analizom termohalinih svojstava Jadranskoga mora iz rezultata klimatske simulacije AdriSC u razdoblju od 1987. do 2017. godine načinjena je klimatologija dinamike jadranske guste vode
ATMOSFERSKO-OCEANSKO KLIMATSKO MODELIRANJE VISOKE RAZLUČIVOSTI ZA PODRUČJE JADRANSKOGA MORA
No full textThe Adriatic region is characterized by extremely complex geomorphology and atmospheric and oceanic processes occurring at various temporal and spatial scales. Due to the relatively coarse horizontal resolution, regional climate models are not capable to resolve the coastal morphology of the Adriatic Sea nor reproduce the processes that occur on smaller spatial and shorter temporal scales. High-resolution climate modeling can be used to overcome these challenges and improve our understanding of the complex processes that drive the Adriatic atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Hence, a high-resolution atmosphere-ocean climate model, the Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC), has been developed for the Adriatic and northern Ionian seas. In order to describe the climate properties of the Adriatic, a 31-year-long (1987–2017) climate simulation was carried out with the AdriSC model. In this thesis, the performance of the AdriSC ocean simulation was thoroughly evaluated by comparing the model results with a comprehensive collection of remote sensing and in situ observational data. Furthermore, the results of the AdriSC simulation, the latest reanalysis product for the Mediterranean Sea and a long-time-running Adriatic Sea atmosphere-ocean forecast model used in both hindcast and data assimilation modes were compared in their ability to reproduce the Adriatic dense-water dynamics during the 2014–2015 period. The main advantages and disadvantages of the different modelling approaches were quantified and discussed. Lastly, a climatology of the Adriatic dense-water dynamics was derived from the results of the AdriSC climate simulation by analyzing the thermohaline properties of the Adriatic Sea during the 1987–2017 period.Područje Jadrana obilježava vrlo složena geomorfologija te procesi u atmosferi i moru koji se odvijaju na različitim vremenskim i prostornim skalama. Zbog relativno grube horizontalne razlučivosti, regionalni klimatski modeli nisu sposobni razlučiti obalnu morfologiju Jadranskoga mora ni reproducirati procese koji se odvijaju na manjim prostornim i kraćim vremenskim skalama. Za prevladavanje navedenih izazova i poboljšanje razumijevanja složenih procesa koji pokreću jadransku atmosfersku i oceansku cirkulaciju može se koristiti klimatsko modeliranje visoke razlučivosti. S tim ciljem razvijen je atmosfersko-oceanski klimatski model visoke razlučivosti Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) za područje Jadranskog i sjevernog Jonskog mora. Kako bi se opisala klimatska svojstva Jadrana, izvršena je 31-godišnja (od 1987. do 2017. godine) klimatska simulacija modelom AdriSC. U ovom radu, napravljena je temeljita evaluacija oceanske simulacije modela AdriSC usporedbom rezultata modela s opsežnim skupom podataka daljinskih i in situ mjerenja. Nadalje, rezultati simulacije AdriSC, najnovije reanalize za Sredozemno more i prognostičkog atmosfersko-oceanskog modela za Jadransko more korištenog za simulacije sa i bez asimilacije podataka, uspoređeni su na temelju njihove sposobnosti reproduciranja dinamike guste vode u Jadranu u razdoblju od 2014. do 2015. godine. Kvantificirane su i raspravljene glavne prednosti i nedostaci različitih pristupa numeričkom modeliranju guste vode. Naposljetku, analizom termohalinih svojstava Jadranskoga mora iz rezultata klimatske simulacije AdriSC u razdoblju od 1987. do 2017. godine načinjena je klimatologija dinamike jadranske guste vode
ATMOSFERSKO-OCEANSKO KLIMATSKO MODELIRANJE VISOKE RAZLUČIVOSTI ZA PODRUČJE JADRANSKOGA MORA
No full textThe Adriatic region is characterized by extremely complex geomorphology and atmospheric and oceanic processes occurring at various temporal and spatial scales. Due to the relatively coarse horizontal resolution, regional climate models are not capable to resolve the coastal morphology of the Adriatic Sea nor reproduce the processes that occur on smaller spatial and shorter temporal scales. High-resolution climate modeling can be used to overcome these challenges and improve our understanding of the complex processes that drive the Adriatic atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Hence, a high-resolution atmosphere-ocean climate model, the Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC), has been developed for the Adriatic and northern Ionian seas. In order to describe the climate properties of the Adriatic, a 31-year-long (1987–2017) climate simulation was carried out with the AdriSC model. In this thesis, the performance of the AdriSC ocean simulation was thoroughly evaluated by comparing the model results with a comprehensive collection of remote sensing and in situ observational data. Furthermore, the results of the AdriSC simulation, the latest reanalysis product for the Mediterranean Sea and a long-time-running Adriatic Sea atmosphere-ocean forecast model used in both hindcast and data assimilation modes were compared in their ability to reproduce the Adriatic dense-water dynamics during the 2014–2015 period. The main advantages and disadvantages of the different modelling approaches were quantified and discussed. Lastly, a climatology of the Adriatic dense-water dynamics was derived from the results of the AdriSC climate simulation by analyzing the thermohaline properties of the Adriatic Sea during the 1987–2017 period.Područje Jadrana obilježava vrlo složena geomorfologija te procesi u atmosferi i moru koji se odvijaju na različitim vremenskim i prostornim skalama. Zbog relativno grube horizontalne razlučivosti, regionalni klimatski modeli nisu sposobni razlučiti obalnu morfologiju Jadranskoga mora ni reproducirati procese koji se odvijaju na manjim prostornim i kraćim vremenskim skalama. Za prevladavanje navedenih izazova i poboljšanje razumijevanja složenih procesa koji pokreću jadransku atmosfersku i oceansku cirkulaciju može se koristiti klimatsko modeliranje visoke razlučivosti. S tim ciljem razvijen je atmosfersko-oceanski klimatski model visoke razlučivosti Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) za područje Jadranskog i sjevernog Jonskog mora. Kako bi se opisala klimatska svojstva Jadrana, izvršena je 31-godišnja (od 1987. do 2017. godine) klimatska simulacija modelom AdriSC. U ovom radu, napravljena je temeljita evaluacija oceanske simulacije modela AdriSC usporedbom rezultata modela s opsežnim skupom podataka daljinskih i in situ mjerenja. Nadalje, rezultati simulacije AdriSC, najnovije reanalize za Sredozemno more i prognostičkog atmosfersko-oceanskog modela za Jadransko more korištenog za simulacije sa i bez asimilacije podataka, uspoređeni su na temelju njihove sposobnosti reproduciranja dinamike guste vode u Jadranu u razdoblju od 2014. do 2015. godine. Kvantificirane su i raspravljene glavne prednosti i nedostaci različitih pristupa numeričkom modeliranju guste vode. Naposljetku, analizom termohalinih svojstava Jadranskoga mora iz rezultata klimatske simulacije AdriSC u razdoblju od 1987. do 2017. godine načinjena je klimatologija dinamike jadranske guste vode
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Get PDFThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Get PDF“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Get PDFWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
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