27,625 research outputs found
Phillips, D F, 401394
No full textThis record was harvested from a previous catalogue system and will be withdrawn in 2025. Information in this record may be superseded or incomplete. Visit this record in UMA's new catalogue at: https://archives.library.unimelb.edu.au/nodes/view/410634Surname: PHILLIPS. Given Name(s) or Initials: D F. Military Service Number or Last Known Location: 401394. Missing, Wounded and Prisoner of War Enquiry Card Index Number: 53963.226348
Item: [2016.0049.42901] "Phillips, D F, 401394
Wage and Price Phillips Curves
No full textIn this paper we introduce a small Keynesian model of economic growth which is centered around two advanced types of Phillips curves, one for money wages and one for prices, both being augmented by perfect myopic foresight and supplemented by a measure of the medium-term inflationary climate updated in an adaptive fashion. The model contains two potentially destabilizing feedback chains, the so-called Mundell and Rose-effects. We estimate parsimonious and congruent Phillips curves for money wages and prices in the US over the past five decades. Using the parameters of the empirical Phillips curves, we show that the growth path of the private sector of the model economy is likely to be surrounded by centrifugal forces. Convergence to this growth path can be generated in two ways: a Blanchard-Katz-type error-correction mechanism in the money-wage Phillips curve or a modified Taylor rule that is augmented by a term, which transmits increases in the wage share (real unit labor costs) to increases in the nominal rate of interest. Thus the model is characterized by local instability of the wage-price spiral, which however can be tamed by appropriate wage or monetary policies. Our empirical analysis finds the error-correction mechanism being ineffective in both Phillips curves suggesting that the stability of the post-war US macroeconomy originates from the stabilizing role of monetary policy.Phillips curves, Mundell effect, Rose effect, monetary policy, Taylor rule, inflation, unemployment, instability
Letter from Hubert Phillips to American Civil Liberties Union of Northern California, August 4, 1942
No full textLetter from Hubert Phillips to American Civil Liberties Union of Northern California, enclosing checks for $57 from F. C. Kellogg, Arthur E. Geschke, Claus Bertelsen, and Hubert Phillips. The letter states that the checks represent "the contributions of about twenty-five people made at a dinner held here recently to consider the phases of the status of citizens of Japanese ancestry and is to be applied specifically to helping prosecute the case of Miss Mitsuye Endo. Mr. F. C. Kellogg of the Fowler High School faculty was the author of the idea and deserves the credit for raising the enclosed contribution."The ACLU-Northern California case file records contain legal documents and correspondence pertaining to the case Ex parte Mitsuye Endo (1944), in which the United States Supreme court unanimously ruled that the federal government could not indefinitely detain United States citizens who were loyal to the government. Files include documents related to the Gordon Hirabayashi Supreme Court case Hirabayashi v. United States
Evolving Phillips trade-off
No full textWe characterise the evolution of the U.S. unemployment-inflation trade-off since the late XIX century era via a Bayesian time-varying parameters structural VAR. The Great Inflation episode appears as historically unique along several dimensions. In particular, the shape of the ‘Phillips loop’–which is defined in terms of the impulse-response functions of inflation and unemployment’s deviations from equilibrium–was, during those years, clearly out of line with respect to the rest of the sample period for all structural innovations except money demand shocks. During the Great Depression, on the other hand, the Phillips trade-off did not exhibit any peculiar qualitative feature, so that, when seen through these lenses, the 1930s only stand out because of the sheer size of the macroeconomic fluctuation. The historical evolution of the Phillips trade-off exhibits virtually no connection with the evolution of the extent of trade openness of the U.S. economy. Although, by itself, this does not rule out a possible impact of globalisation on the slope of the trade-off in recent years, it clearly suggests that, historically, the evolution of the trade-off has been dominated by factors other than trade openness. JEL Classification: E30, E32Bayesian VARs, Globalisation, Great Depression, Great Inflation, identified VARs, Lucas Critique, Phillips trade-off, stochastic volatility, time-varying parameters
The South African Phillips Curve: How Applicable is the Gordon Model?
No full textIs there a Phillips curve relationship present in South Africa and if so, what form does it take? Traditionally the way to estimate the Phillips curve is merely to regress the change in the price level on a measure of the output gap (or the deviation of actual unemployment from the NAIRU). However, Gordon (1990:481-5) has argued that estimating the Phillips curve in this manner biases the estimated results. Instead, Gordon (1997; 1989) puts forward his so-called triangular model that controls for inertia effects, output level effects and rates-of-change (in output) effects. He applies the model to several European countries, the US and Japan and finds meaningful results. The question this paper poses is whether or not the triangular model also applies to South Africa. In estimating the Phillips curve for South Africa the paper also experiments with four versions of the output gap, based on four different methods to estimate long run output, including the standard Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter and the production function approach. There are several variants of the Phillips curve. The first, as estimated by Phillips (1958) himself, measures the relationship between wage inflation and unemployment. However, other versions consider the relationship between price inflation and unemployment or price inflation and output. This paper focuses on the latter, given the absence of quarterly unemployment data in South Africa, as well as the lack of a reliable and sufficiently long unemployment time series. The paper first presents an overview of literature on the Phillips curve and its estimation for South Africa and other countries. This is followed by the second section that considers the model to be estimated, the data as well as the discussion of the alternative measures of the output gap. The third section presents the estimated results followed by section four that contains the conclusion and a discussion of the policy implications.
Timing and modes of granite magmatism in the core of the Alboran Domain, Rif chain, northern Morocco: Implications for the Alpine evolution of the western Mediterranean
No full textThe Betic-Rif orogen forms the western termination of the Alpine orogenic system in the Mediterranean region. The precise timing, structural evolution, and distribution of high-grade metamorphic units (Alpine versus pre-Alpine) in the inner zones of the orogen (Alboran Domain) remain controversial issues. In this paper we report occurrence of distinct generations of peraluminous granitic bodies intruded within Beni Bousera peridotites and their amphibolite-to-granulite facies envelope, in the core of the Alboran Domain of the Rif chain (northern Morocco). These granitic bodies are central to the reconstruction of the high-grade evolution of the Alboran Domain because they provide first-order structural markers to assess the P-T-t deformation history of the high-grade terranes. Here we document the petrography and structural relationships with the host rocks and constrain the timing of granite emplacement using laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry U-Pb zircon and/or monazite dating, complemented by Ar-40/(39) Ar dating. The results indicate that granite emplacement occurred in two major episodes of anatectic magmatism, during the Hercynian (circa 300 Ma) and Alpine (circa 22 Ma) periods, respectively. These data (1) provide conclusive evidence for an important phase of Hercynian magmatism and high-grade metamorphism in the Alboran Domain and (2) permit a revaluation of the significance of the high-grade early Miocene event documented in the Alboran Domain in terms of a late stage, thermal pulse that reworked a polymetamorphic (Hercynian and Alpine) nappe pile. These results provide new constraints for construction of a feasible tectonometamorphic model for the Alpine evolution of the western Mediterranean. Citation: Rossetti, F., T. Theye, F. Lucci, M. L. Bouybaouene, A. Dini, A. Gerdes, D. Phillips, and D. Cozzupoli (2010), Timing and modes of granite magmatism in the core of the Alboran Domain, Rif chain, northern Morocco: Implications for the Alpine evolution of the western Mediterranean, Tectonics, 29, TC2017, doi: 10.1029/2009TC002487
The Phillips Curve in Australia
No full textIn this paper we discuss the development of Phillips curves in Australia over the forty years since Phillips first estimated one using Australian data. We examine the central issues faced by researchers estimating Australian Phillips curves. These include the distinction between the short and long-run trade-offs between inflation and unemployment, and the changing level of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU), particularly in the 1970s. We estimate Phillips curves for prices and unit labour costs in Australia over the past three decades. These Phillips curves allow the NAIRU to change through time, and include a role for import prices and ‘speed-limit’ effects. The paper concludes by presenting an extended discussion of the changing role of the Phillips curve in the intellectual framework used to analyse inflation within the Reserve Bank of Australia over the past three decades.Phillips curve; inflation; unemployment; monetary policy
Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve
No full textThe ability of the New Keynesian Phillips curve to explain US inflation dynamics when official central bank forecasts (Greenbook forecasts) are used as a proxy for inflation expectations is examined. The New Keynesian Phillips curve is estimated on quarterly data spanning the period 1970Q1-1998Q2 against the alternative of the Hybrid Phillips curve, which allows for a backward-looking component in the price-setting behavior in the economy. The results are compared to those obtained using actual data on future inflation as conventionally employed in empirical work under the assumption of rational expectations. The empirical evidence provides, in contrast to most of the relevant literature, considerable support for the standard forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve when inflation expectations are measured using official inflation forecasts. In this case, lagged inflation terms become insignificant in the hybrid specification. The usefulness of real unit labor cost as the preferred proxy for real marginal cost in recent empirical work on the Phillips curve is confirmed by our results.Money demand; Inflation; Phillips curve; Real marginal cost; Real-time data; GMM estimation
An online non-meditative mindfulness intervention for people with ALS and their caregivers: a randomized controlled trial
No full textObjectives: Mindfulness-based interventions seem to be effective in promoting QOL of ALS patients and caregivers, but most require substantial time. In the Langerian approach, mindfulness can be easily promoted with mental tasks and short lectures. This study aims to explore the impact of an ALS-specific online Langerian mindfulness training program on QOL of ALS patients. Methods: We developed and tested with an Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) a 5-week active learning mindfulness program. Participants were recruited from the ALS clinic at Penn State Health and online and were randomly assigned to either the mindfulness group or a wait-list control group. The primary outcome was the patient’s QOL after the treatment. 3 and 6-month follow-ups, together with anxiety, depression, care burden, and physical function, assessed at all times for both patients and caregivers, were explored as secondary outcomes. Results: 47 ALS patients and 27 caregivers were recruited. Among the ALS patients, the experimental group reported higher levels of QOL at the end of the treatment (d = 0.54). Moreover, they showed lower values of depression, anxiety, and negative emotions, compared to the controls, over time. The caregivers from the mindfulness group reported lower scores of care burden, depression, and anxiety, with higher values of energy and emotional well-being over time. Conclusions: This small RCT provides preliminary evidence that this intervention leads to an increase of QOL and a reduction in psychological comorbidities in ALS patients and caregivers. Given the relatively short time commitment, it may be easily implemented by the ALS community
Does Immigration Affect the Phillips Curve? Some Evidence for Spain
No full textThe Phillips curve has flattened in Spain over 1995-2006: unemployment has fallen by 15
percentage points, with roughly constant inflation. This change has been more pronounced than elsewhere. We argue that this stems from the immigration boom in Spain over this period. We show that the New Keynesian Phillips curve is shifted by immigration if natives' and immigrants' labor supply or bargaining power differ. Estimation of the curve for Spain
indicates that the fall in unemployment since 1995 would have led to an annual increase in inflation of 2.5 percentage points if it had not been largely offset by immigration
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