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Beyond Overconfidence: Exploring the Role of Confidence Sensitivity and Meta-Confidence in Career Choices
No full textThis paper experimentally investigates the role of confidence sensitivity and meta-confidence in career-related decision-making. While the effects of overconfidence on economic outcomes are well-documented, the implications of confidence sensitivity -the ability to distinguish between one's successes and failures -have been largely overlooked. Yet, in various contexts, a lack of sensitivity could be just as detrimental as overconfidence, particularly when it hinders individuals from accurately assessing their strengths and weaknesses before making critical career choices. Moreover, recent research in cognitive psychology suggests that individuals can form informative beliefs about their own confidence sensitivity, but whether such "meta-confidence" influences their behavior remains an open question. To address these questions, we design an experiment that measures participants' confidence sensitivity and meta-confidence in a setting where they perform a task and choose between a competitive or non-competitive compensation scheme. Additionally, some participants are given the option to seek performance feedback before making their decision. Our results show that confidence sensitivity significantly improves the quality of compensation scheme decisions, while low meta-confidence is associated with increased feedback-seeking behavior prior to the compensation decision. We provide causal evidence for this latter finding: a treatment condition designed to reduce meta-confidence led to an increased willingness to seek feedback. Overall, this paper highlights the richness of individuals' beliefs about their abilities and demonstrates how integrating insights from cognitive psychology can offer new perspectives on economic decision-making.</div
Beyond Overconfidence: Exploring the Role of Confidence Sensitivity and Meta-Confidence in Career Choices
No full textThis paper experimentally investigates the role of confidence sensitivity and meta-confidence in career-related decision-making. While the effects of overconfidence on economic outcomes are well-documented, the implications of confidence sensitivity -the ability to distinguish between one's successes and failures -have been largely overlooked. Yet, in various contexts, a lack of sensitivity could be just as detrimental as overconfidence, particularly when it hinders individuals from accurately assessing their strengths and weaknesses before making critical career choices. Moreover, recent research in cognitive psychology suggests that individuals can form informative beliefs about their own confidence sensitivity, but whether such "meta-confidence" influences their behavior remains an open question. To address these questions, we design an experiment that measures participants' confidence sensitivity and meta-confidence in a setting where they perform a task and choose between a competitive or non-competitive compensation scheme. Additionally, some participants are given the option to seek performance feedback before making their decision. Our results show that confidence sensitivity significantly improves the quality of compensation scheme decisions, while low meta-confidence is associated with increased feedback-seeking behavior prior to the compensation decision. We provide causal evidence for this latter finding: a treatment condition designed to reduce meta-confidence led to an increased willingness to seek feedback. Overall, this paper highlights the richness of individuals' beliefs about their abilities and demonstrates how integrating insights from cognitive psychology can offer new perspectives on economic decision-making.</div
L'importance de la métacognition dans les carrières professionnelles
No full textCette thèse étudie le rôle de la métacognition, c’est-à-dire la capacité des individus à évaluer leurs propres compétences, dans leur vie professionnelle. À travers une série d’expériences en laboratoire, j’examine la façon dont les individus forment des jugements sur leurs compétences et examine l’impact de ces croyances sur la façon dont ils prennent des décisions dans le domaine professionnel. Dans le chapitre 1, j’explore comment les évaluations globales de performances sont liées aux évaluations locales de performances. Je réplique l’effet d’agrégation, selon lequel la confiance diminue à mesure que le nombre de décisions à agréger augmente. De plus, je montre l’existence d’un biais nouveau, l’effet de variabilité, selon lequel une plus grande homogénéité de la difficulté des tâches entraîne une diminution de la confiance à la fois au niveau global et local. Enfin, je montre que les jugements de confiances globaux sont en partie dérivés des jugements de confiance locaux. Le chapitre 2 se concentre sur la révision des confiances globales lorsque les individus reçoivent des informations concernant leur performance, via une réplication et une extension de l’étude de Grossman et Owens (2012). Contrairement à l’idée selon laquelle le conservatisme et l’asymétrie sont prévalent dans la mise à jour des croyances, mes résultats suggèrent que les individus sont tout à fait capables de réviser leurs confiances de manière non biaisée lorsqu’ils reçoivent des informations concernant leur performance. Dans le chapitre 3, j’explore le rôle de la surestimation des compétences des individus par rapport à leurs pairs, appelée surplacement, sur la façon dont ils négocient entre eux, et j’explore les mécanismes qui génèrent le surplacement. Mes résultats révèlent que le surplacement contribue à l’incapacité des individus à parvenir à un accord lorsque ceux-ci doivent se partager le produit d’un travail commun. De plus, je montre que plusieurs biais cognitifs, en particulier, la surconfiance, la sous-estimation des autres et des biais dans le traitement de l’information, contribuent au surplacement. Le chapitre 4 explore la capacité des individus à évaluer la qualité de leur propre métacognition, ce qu’on appelle la méta-métacognition. J’introduis un nouveau paradigme expérimental pour mesurer la méta-métacognition, et je montre que les individus sont effectivement capables de faire des jugements de confiance éclairés sur leurs propres processus métacognitifs. Dans le chapitre 5, je teste la pertinence de ces jugements méta-métacognitifs dans un contexte économique où les individus doivent choisir comment ils souhaitent que leur performance soit ré-munérée. J’examine la validité de deux hypothèses dans ce contexte. La première hypothèse suggère que les individus ayant peu confiance dans leur métacognition se fieront moins à leurs jugements métacognitifs lorsqu’ils prendront des décisions. Cette hypothèse est invalidée par les données. La deuxième hypothèse est que les individus ayant peu confiance dans leur métacognition auront un plus grand besoin d’informations objectives sur leurs performances avant de prendre des décisions importantes. Des preuves convaincantes soutiennent cette deuxième hypothèse.This thesis studies the role of metacognition, individuals’ capacity to assess their own abilities, in their occupational pursuits. Through a series of laboratory experiments, this dissertation scrutinizes the formation of individuals’ self-beliefs concerning their abilities and examines the impact of these beliefs on their decision-making processes in the professional sphere. In Chapter 1, I explore how global evaluations of performance relate to local performance assessments. This investigation confirms the well-established aggregation effect, where confidence diminishes as the number of decisions to be aggregated increases. Furthermore, I uncover a novel finding according to which greater homogeneity in task difficulty across decisions leads to reduced confidence both globally and locally. Importantly, I show that global confidence beliefs are partly derived from local confidence evaluations. Chapter 2 zooms in on the updating of global performance evaluations following feedback, replicating and extending a previous study by Grossman and Owens (2012). Contrary to the notion that conservatism and asymmetry are prevalent in belief updating, my findings suggest that participants can update their beliefs in an unbiased manner when they receive feedback about their performance. In Chapter 3, I delve into the role of individuals’ overestimation of their skills relative to their peers, known as overplacement, on bargaining outcomes, and explore the underlying mechanisms through which overplacement impacts these outcomes. My results unveil that overplacement contributes to bargaining failures when individuals must share the product of jointly produced wealth. Additionally, I show that several cognitive biases, including overconfidence, underestimation of others, and biases in information processing contribute to individuals’ overestimation of their skills relative to others. Chapter 4 scrutinizes individuals’ ability to evaluate the quality of their own metacognition, a concept termed as meta-metacognition. I introduce an innovative experimental paradigm to gauge meta-metacognition, demonstrating that individuals possess the ability to make insightful confidence judgments about their own metacognitive processes. In Chapter 5, I test the relevance of these meta-metacognitive judgments in an economic setting where individuals must choose how they want their performance to be rewarded. In this context, I specifically investigate two hypotheses. The first hypothesis suggests that individuals with low confidence in their metacognition will rely less on their metacognitive judgments to inform their decisions. This hypothesis is invalidated by the data. The second hypothesis posits that individuals with low confidence in their metacognition will exhibit a higher need for objective performance feedback before committing to important decisions. Compelling evidence emerges in favor of this second hypothesis
Beyond Overconfidence: Exploring the Role of Confidence Sensitivity and Meta-Confidence in Career Choices
No full textThis paper experimentally investigates the role of confidence sensitivity and meta-confidence in career-related decision-making. While the effects of overconfidence on economic outcomes are well-documented, the implications of confidence sensitivity -the ability to distinguish between one's successes and failures -have been largely overlooked. Yet, in various contexts, a lack of sensitivity could be just as detrimental as overconfidence, particularly when it hinders individuals from accurately assessing their strengths and weaknesses before making critical career choices. Moreover, recent research in cognitive psychology suggests that individuals can form informative beliefs about their own confidence sensitivity, but whether such "meta-confidence" influences their behavior remains an open question. To address these questions, we design an experiment that measures participants' confidence sensitivity and meta-confidence in a setting where they perform a task and choose between a competitive or non-competitive compensation scheme. Additionally, some participants are given the option to seek performance feedback before making their decision. Our results show that confidence sensitivity significantly improves the quality of compensation scheme decisions, while low meta-confidence is associated with increased feedback-seeking behavior prior to the compensation decision. We provide causal evidence for this latter finding: a treatment condition designed to reduce meta-confidence led to an increased willingness to seek feedback. Overall, this paper highlights the richness of individuals' beliefs about their abilities and demonstrates how integrating insights from cognitive psychology can offer new perspectives on economic decision-making.</div
Beyond Overconfidence: Exploring the Role of Confidence Sensitivity and Meta-Confidence in Career Choices
No full textThis paper experimentally investigates the role of confidence sensitivity and meta-confidence in career-related decision-making. While the effects of overconfidence on economic outcomes are well-documented, the implications of confidence sensitivity -the ability to distinguish between one's successes and failures -have been largely overlooked. Yet, in various contexts, a lack of sensitivity could be just as detrimental as overconfidence, particularly when it hinders individuals from accurately assessing their strengths and weaknesses before making critical career choices. Moreover, recent research in cognitive psychology suggests that individuals can form informative beliefs about their own confidence sensitivity, but whether such "meta-confidence" influences their behavior remains an open question. To address these questions, we design an experiment that measures participants' confidence sensitivity and meta-confidence in a setting where they perform a task and choose between a competitive or non-competitive compensation scheme. Additionally, some participants are given the option to seek performance feedback before making their decision. Our results show that confidence sensitivity significantly improves the quality of compensation scheme decisions, while low meta-confidence is associated with increased feedback-seeking behavior prior to the compensation decision. We provide causal evidence for this latter finding: a treatment condition designed to reduce meta-confidence led to an increased willingness to seek feedback. Overall, this paper highlights the richness of individuals' beliefs about their abilities and demonstrates how integrating insights from cognitive psychology can offer new perspectives on economic decision-making.</div
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Get PDFThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Get PDF“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Get PDFWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts
Get PDFWe conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued
use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation
counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more
sophisticated methods
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