1,720,998 research outputs found
An Energy-Environment-Macro Model for the Italian economy: 2E- MeMo-It
No full textIn this paper we illustrate the empirical strategy to extend the macro-econometric model of the italian
economy to the energy sector and we show a first set of preliminary estimation results. We build an
energy block in MeMo-It that interacts with the demand side of the economy. In particular, we model
the demand of energy products and the dynamic of their relative prices in order to be able to evaluate
the impact of energy policy measures on the Italian econom
Stabilità e instabilità delle aspettative di svalutazione sul tasso di cambio lira-marco
No full text
Modelling public and private investment in innovation
No full textIn this paper we assess the contribution of investment in innovation
to GDP growth in a macroeconometric model for the Italian economy.
The analysis adopts the model for medium term forecasts (MeMo-It)
developed by the Italian Statistical Institute (Istat), where investment
is modeled by asset and institutional sector. Adopting this framework,
we provide empirical evidence about the complementary relationship
between private and public investment in R&D and software. Compared to the existing macroeconometric models, MeMo-It provides a
novel framework for policy evaluation that makes possible the generation of alternative scenarios to assess the growth effect of specific
policy measures tailored to sustain innovative investment. Our findings support the growth promoting effect of expansionary fiscal policy
measures aimed at fostering public investment in innovation
Off-shoring and Productivity Growth in the Italian Manufacturing Industries -super-‡
Get PDFWe study the relation between the off-shoring of intermediates and services and productivity growth in the Italian manufacturing industries in 1995-2003. Our results indicate that the off-shoring of intermediates within the same industry ('narrow off-shoring') is beneficial for productivity growth, while the off-shoring of services is not. We also find that the way in which off-shoring is measured may matter considerably. The positive relation between off-shoring of intermediates and productivity growth is there with our direct measures based on input-output data but disappears when either a broad measure or the Feenstra-Hanson off-shoring measure employed in other studies are used instead. (JEL codes: F16, F23, 04) Copyright , Oxford University Press.
Short-and long-run heterogeneous investment dynamics
Get PDFIn this paper, we model the dynamics of business investment taking into account asset-specific characteristics potentially affecting the reactivity of aggregate and disaggregate capital accumulation over the business cycle. We estimate Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) and traditional investment (non-ICT) determinants within a Vector Error Correction Model testing the assumptions of the flexible accelerator and neoclassical model as well as the role of financial constraints and uncertainty. We evaluate our model on Italian data over the period 1980–2012, and we check our results also with Spanish and UK data. Our findings support the assumption that capital is heterogeneous since short- and long-run determinants are significantly different across the assets. Traditional assets experience stock adjustment costs while ICT investment incurs flow adjustment cost. In the short run, liquidity is a key determinant of investment independently of the asset type. In the long run, uncertainty significantly affects ICT. Finally, the results of the counterfactual exercises support the idea that ICT is a key policy variable to foster economic growth
Service Off-shoring and Productivity Growth in the European Economies
No full textWe study the relation between service off-shoring and productivity growth in the manufacturing sector of a set of European economies in 1995-2005. We document that those countries resorting more to service off-shoring in 1995 experienced faster productivity growth in ICT/R&D intensive industries over the next decade. Our results show also that the productivity gap between more and less ICT/R&D intensive industries was relatively higher in those countries experimenting higher increases in service off-shoring intensity over the period. In both cases, ICT intensity is more relevant than R&D to explain the mechanism through which service off-shoring affects productivity growth. These findings are consistent with the enhancing productivity effects of the complementary relation between service off-shoring and ICTservice off-shoring, productivity growth, ICT
Private and Public Intangible Capital: Productivity Growth and New Policy Challengers
No full textParallel Sessions E: New Research on Intangible
Capitale organizzativo e partecipazione alle catene globali del valore: gli effetti sulla produttività
No full textIncome distribution, growth and financialization: the Italian case.
Get PDFThe paper investigates whether the current decline of the Italian economy could be traced back to financialization. In principle financialization could not be so important for an economy in which many firms are not quoted in the stock exchange and for which shareholders' interests should not matter. The author argues that financialization may have deep effects in such an environment by changing the perceived financial norm and the target return on capital. The author draws on a model by Lavoie (1995) extending it to an open economy. She uses this model by looking at the effects of an appreciation, thus replicating the appreciation of the euro in the last years and its possible effects on the Italian economy. The results of such an appreciation would be a fall in the rate of growth, accumulation and in the realized rate of profit. This picture, however, does not fit in well with some stylized facts. In Italy, the rate of growth and the capital accumulation have slowed down while the rate of profit and the profit share have clearly increased. The increase concerns the average profit share and the average profit rate while indeed the profit rate is declining in the manufacturing sectors, but rising in the services sector. At this point a different interpretation is presented, which is no more based on the financialization hypothesis but rather on the increase in the degree of monopoly power in the Italian industrial sectors, given the increase in the mark-up. This process would have been favoured by the privatization process of previously public enterprises. The author shows what might have happened by using a model by Dutt (1995) with two sectors. In this model in the long-run the accumulation of capital is still governed by aggregated utilization and profitability, but the allocation of capital among sectors and their growth depends on the profit rate differential. The profit rate differential might have shifted resources to the service sectors, which would have been favoured by the privatization process. In this case, financialization would be a consequence of the increase in monopolistic competition, which in turn could be responsible for the decline.
- …
