705 research outputs found
Evolutionary game theory in a cell: a membrane computing approach
Evolutionary Game Theory studies the spreading of strategies in populations. An important question of the area concerns the possibility that certain population structures can facilitate the spreading of more cooperative behaviours associated to the sustainability and resilience of many different systems ranging from ecological to socio-economic systems. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to study the spreading of behaviours in structured populations by combining Evolutionary Game Theory and membrane computing. We show that there is a general way to encode Evolutionary Game Theory into membrane computing, leading to a novel computational framework which can be used to study, analyze and simulate the spreading of behaviours in structured populations organized in communicating compartments. The proposed approach allows to extend the works on membrane systems, population and ecological dynamics, and, at the same time, suggests a novel bio-inspired framework, based on formal languages theory, to investigate the dynamics of evolving structured populations
The productivity effects of decentralized reforms - an analysis of the Chinese industrial reforms
The empirical literature on the effects of ownership has not distinguished between the effects of ownership and the effects of control. It has also generally ignored the dynamic effects of various ownership and control rights. Using a rich set of panel data about changes in China's state-owned enterprises, the author examines the static and dynamic effects of decentralizing ownership and control rights. He finds that productivity and growth rates improved significantly when reform improved the incentives for managers and employees to learn and to work hard - for example by decentralizing the rights to control wages, make production decisions, and appoint new managers. Increasing profit-retention rates and adopting performance contracts - conventionally viewed as the most important reforms for China's state enterprises - did not improve productivity much. Overall, decentralization accounted for a least 42 percent of productivity growth in Chinese state enterprises in the 1980s. Much of that gain came from improvements in the growth rate of productivity rather than in improved levels of productivity.Labor Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Banks&Banking Reform,Public Health Promotion,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Banks&Banking Reform,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Municipal Financial Management
. 19 Tomo II (1923) Cuarta Época (1922-1933). Anales del Museo Nacional de Arqueología, Historia y Etnografía
Publicación que recopila y difunde cien años de trabajo de la antropología en México (1877-1977), integrada por documentos y manuscritos arqueológicos, antropológicos, históricos, geológicos, botánicos y lingüísticos.- Importancia etnográfica y lingüística de las obras del padre fray Bernardino de Sahagún por Alfonso Toro. - Apéndice referente a otras obras de Sahagún por Alfonso Toro. - Nombres geográficos de origen tarahumara en el estado de Chihuahua por José M. Ponce de León. - La colección arqueológica de Boturini; ejemplares desconocidos existentes en la Biblioteca Nacional por Ramón Mena. - La monja alférez, Catalina de Erauso ¿Cuál sería su verdadero sexo? por Nicolás León. - Méjico peregrino. Mejicanismos supervivientes en el inglés de Norte América por Victoriano Salado Álvarez. - Apéndice letra A. El nombre de California por Victoriano Salado Álvarez. - Apéndice letra B por Victoriano Salado Álvarez. - Apéndice letra C. Sobre la palabra "barbacoa" por Victoriano Salado Álvarez. - Apéndice letra D. Un vocablo vagabundo por Victoriano Salado Álvarez. - Apéndice letra E. Glosarios por Victoriano Salado Álvarez. – Tejanismos por Victoriano Salado Álvarez. - Apéndice letra F. Influencia del castellano sobre el náhuatl por Victoriano Salado Álvarez. - Respuesta que al discurso anterior dió el Sr. D. Federico Gamboa, Director de la Academia por Victoriano Salado Álvarez. - El Convento de Tepozotlán por Rafael Heliodoro Valle. - Apéndice. Arca Real del Colegio por Rafael Heliodoro Valle. - Efemérides del Colegio y Convento de Tepotzotlán por Rafael Heliodoro Valle. - Antología de Tepotzotlán por Rafael Heliodoro Valle. - Nombres vinculados a los Anales de Tepetzotlán por Rafael Heliodoro Valle. - Reseña histórica por José G. Montes de Oca. - Reseña histórica. Primera época (1877-1903) por José G. Montes de Oca. - Reseña histórica. Segunda época (1903-1909) por José G. Montes de Oca. - Reseña histórica. Tercera época (1909-1913) por José G. Montes de Oca. - Índice por materias (1877-1923) por José G. Montes de Oca. - Índice por autores (1877-1923) por José G. Montes de Oca. - Índice por traductores (1877-1923) por José G. Montes de Oca. - Apéndices (1877-1923) por José G. Montes de Oca
Debt maturity and firm performance : a panel study of Indian companies
Economic policy makers traditionally hold the view that, because of imperfections in capital markets, a shortage of long-term finance acts as a barrier to industrial performance and growth. Long term finance is thought to allow firms to invest in more productive technologies, even when they do not produce immediate payoffs, without fear of premature liquidation. As a result, special state-supported term-lending institutions have been established, especially in developing countries. But some believe that short-term finance may offer better incentives because it allows suppliers of finance to monitor and control firms more effectively, thus improving the firms'performance. The authors empirically investigate the determinants and consequences of the term structure of debt. Using a rich panel of data on privately owned companies in India, they also examine the influence of debt maturity structures on those firm's performance, especially on productivity. The results are not conclusive, but seem to support conventional beliefs about the importance of long term finance to firm performance. Heavy leveraging, however, has a strong negative impact on productivity. They base their econometric evidence on estimates of a maturity equation and of a production function augmented by financial variables. The data on which these results are based have been generated by a financial system in which there is little competition, in which state-owned financial institutions are not guided by the profit motive and have no control over interest rates, so one cannot say whether short term finance would have been more beneficial in a less regulated system. Moreover, by the end of the 1980s, the capital base of India's government-owned financial institutions had been severely eroded and they carried a heavy burden of nonperforming assets. This means that the benefits of long term finance must be weighed against the costs.Banks&Banking Reform,Financial Intermediation,Economic Theory&Research,Municipal Financial Management,Environmental Economics&Policies
Factores personales y uso de internet de los adolescentes del colegio San Andrés, Los Olivos, Perú
El presente estudio titulado “Factores personales y uso de internet en los
adolescentes del colegio San Andrés, Los Olivos, 2016”, tiene como objetivo
general: Determinar la relación entre los factores personales y el uso de internet
en los adolescentes del colegio San Andrés, Los Olivos, 2016. El estudio es de
tipo cuantitativo, descriptivo-correlacional, no experimental de corte transversal.
La población muestra estuvo conformada por los 97 adolescentes de 12 a 17
años. Para la recolección de la información se utilizaron dos cuestionarios, el
primero: Uso de internet por escolares de 4to y 5to de secundaria en un colegio
de la Perla”, diseñado por Orellana L. y el segundo el Test de Adicción a Internet
(IAT) cuestionario desarrollado por Kimberly Young (1998) y traducido por Pulido
M. Escoto R. Gutiérrez D. Los datos fueron procesados por el programa SPSS
versión 20. Los resultados fueron de acuerdo al análisis Wilcoxon, podemos
afirmar con un nivel de significancia del 5% que existe una relación entre los
factores personales y el uso de internet de los adolescentes, donde el p-valor =
0.021. Por lo que se concluye el 50,52 % de adolescentes presentaron uso de
internet problemático obteniendo hábitos inadecuados en un 46,4% y tan solo un
10,31% presentaron hábitos adecuados
Shifting responsibility for social services as enterprises privatize in Belarus
In Belarus, divestiture of social assets, a misnomer for fringe benefits that comprise a part of wages, is needed to transform enterprises so they can function appropriately in a market economy. Maintaining supply of these services after enterprise divestiture is an important public policy problem in transition economies. These fringe benefits, issued mainly in the form of housing and kindergarten services, were cut by at least two-thirds as a proportion of employee remuneration between 1994 and 1995 because of the economic downturn. This report debates whether most of these fringe benefits should continue to be subsidized or receive preferential tax treatment. A strong case is made for some government funding of the public health and kindergarten services, and public utility and housing services divested by enterprises. The reasons for assigning services such as education and health to local governments is debated and financing arrangements such as revenue sharing are examined. Among the problems cited with the latter are interregional imbalances caused by unequal resources distribution, tax breaks given to agriculture which has reduced payments to rural local governments, the absence of close links between beneficiaries and payers justifying extrabudgetary funding, and inadequate subnational government taxation raising insignificant amounts of revenue. Where transfers to local governments are required, formula financing is suggested for unconditional grants to low-income local governments and conditional grants to support specific objectives.Municipal Financial Management,Public Sector Economics&Finance,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Banks&Banking Reform
Stoichiometric analysis of self-maintaining metabolisms
This paper presents an extension of stoichiometric analysis in systems where the catalytic compounds (enzymes) are also intermediates of the metabolic network (dual property), so they are produced and degraded by the reaction network itself. To take this property into account, we introduce the definition of enzyme-maintaining mode, a set of reactions that produces its own catalyst and can operate at stationary state. Moreover, an enzyme-maintaining mode is defined as elementary with respect to a given reaction if the removal of any of the remaining reactions causes the cessation of any steady state flux through this reference reaction. These concepts are applied to determine the network structure of a simple self-maintaining system
Author Profiling and Plagiarism Detection
The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-25485-2_6In this chapter we introduce the topics that we will cover in the RuSSIR 2014 course on Author Profiling and Plagiarism Detection (APPD). Author profiling distinguishes between classes of authors studying how language is shared by classes of people. This task helps in identifying profiling aspects such as gender, age, native language, or even personality type. In case of the plagiarism detection task we are not interested in studying how language is shared. On the contrary, given a document we are interested in investigating if the writing style changes in order to unveil text inconsistencies, i.e., unexpected irregularities through the document such as changes in vocabulary, style and text complexity. In fact, when it is not possible to retrieve the source document(s) where plagiarism has been committed from, the intrinsic analysis of the suspicious document is the only way to find evidence of plagiarism. The difficulty in retrieving the source of plagiarism could be due to the fact that the documents are not available on the web or the plagiarised text fragments were obfuscated via paraphrasing or translation (in case the source document was in another language). In this overview, we also discuss the results of the shared tasks on author profiling (gender and age identification) and plagiarism detection that we help to organise at the PAN Lab on Uncovering Plagiarism, Authorship, and Social Software Misuse.The PAN shared tasks on author profil-ing and on plagiarism detection have been organised in the framework of the WIQ-EIIRSES project (Grant No. 269180) within the EC FP 7 Marie Curie People. The research work described in the paper was carried out in the framework of the DIANA-APPLICATIONS-Finding Hidden Knowledge in Texts: Applications (TIN2012-38603-C02-01) project, and the VLC/CAMPUS Microcluster on Multimodal Interaction inIntelligent Systems.Rosso, P. (2015). Author Profiling and Plagiarism Detection. En Information Retrieval. Springer. 229-250. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-25485-2_6S229250Argamon, S., Koppel, M., Fine, J., Shimoni, A.R.: Gender, genre, and writing style in formal written texts. TEXT 23, 321–346 (2003)Association of Teachers and Lecturers. School work plagued by plagiarism - ATL survey. Technical report, Association of Teachers and Lecturers, London, UK (2008). (Press release)Barrón-Cedeño, A.: On the mono- and cross-language detection of text re-use and plagiarism. Ph.D. thesis, Universitat Politènica de València (2012)Barrón-Cedeño, A., Rosso, P., Pinto, D., Juan, A.: On cross-lingual plagiarism analysis using a statistical model. In: Proceedings of the ECAI 2008 Workshop on Uncovering Plagiarism, Authorship and Social Software Misuse, PAN 2008 (2008)Barrón-Cedeño, A., Gupta, P., Rosso, P.: Methods for cross-language plagiarism detection. Knowl. Based Syst. 50, 11–17 (2013)Barrón-Cedeño, A., Vila, M., Martí, M., Rosso, P.: Plagiarism meets paraphrasing: insights for the next generation in automatic plagiarism detection. Comput. Linguist. 39(4), 917–947 (2013)Bogdanova, D., Rosso, P., Solorio, T.: Exploring high-level features for detecting cyberpedophilia. Comput. Speech Lang. 28(1), 108–120 (2014)Braschler, M., Harman, D.: Notebook papers of CLEF 2010 LABs and workshops. Padua, Italy (2010)Cappellato, L., Ferro, N., Halvey, M., Kraaij, W.: CLEF 2014 labs and workshops, notebook papers. In: CEUR Workshop Proceedings (CEUR-WS.org), ISSN 1613–0073 (2014). http://ceur-ws.org/Vol-1180/Comas, R., Sureda, J., Nava, C., Serrano, L.: Academic cyberplagiarism: a descriptive and comparative analysis of the prevalence amongst the undergraduate students at Tecmilenio University (Mexico) and Balearic Islands University (Spain). In: Proceedings of the International Conference on Education and New Learning Technologies (EDULEARN 2010), Barcelona (2010)Flesch, R.: A new readability yardstick. J. Appl. Psychol. 32(3), 221–233 (1948)Flores, E., Barrón-Cedeño, A., Rosso, P., Moreno, L.: Desocore: detecting source code re-use across programming languages. In: Proceedings of 12th International Conference of the North American Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics: Human Language Technologies, NAACL-2012, pp. 1–4, Montreal, Canada (2012)Flores, E., Barrón-Cedeño, A., Moreno, L., Rosso, P.: Uncovering source code re-use in large-scale programming environments. In: Computer Applications in Engineering and Education, Accepted (2014). doi: 10.1002/cae.21608Forner, P., Navigli, R., Tufis, D.: CLEF 2013 evaluation labs and workshop - working notes papers, 23–26 September. Valencia, Spain (2013)Franco-Salvador, M., Gupta, P., Rosso, P.: Cross-Language plagiarism detection using a multilingual semantic network. In: Braslavski, P., Kuznetsov, S.O., Kamps, J., Rüger, S., Agichtein, E., Segalovich, I., Yilmaz, E., Serdyukov, P. (eds.) ECIR 2013. LNCS, vol. 7814, pp. 710–713. Springer, Heidelberg (2013)Franco-Salvador, M., Gupta, P., Rosso, P.: Knowledge graphs as context models: improving the detection of cross-language plagiarism with paraphrasing. In: Ferro, N. (ed.) PROMISE Winter School 2013. LNCS, vol. 8173, pp. 227–236. Springer, Heidelberg (2014)Gollub, T., Stein, B., Burrows, S.: Ousting Ivory tower research: towards a web framework for providing experiments as a service. In: Hersh, B., Callan, J., Maarek, Y., Sanderson, M., (eds.) 35th International ACM Conference on Research and Development in Information Retrieval (SIGIR 2012), pp. 1125–1126. ACM, August 2012. ISBN 978-1-4503-1472-5. doi: 10.1145/2348283.2348501Gollub, T., Hagen, M., Michel, M., Stein, B.: From keywords to keyqueries: content descriptors for the web. In: Gurrin, C., Jones, G., Kelly, D., Kruschwitz, U., de Rijke, M., Sakai, T., Sheridan, P., (eds.) 36th International ACM Conference on Research and Development in Information Retrieval (SIGIR 2013), pp. 981–984. ACM (2013)Goswami, S., Sarkar, S., Rustagi, M.: Stylometric analysis of bloggers’ age and gender. In: Adar, E., Hurst, M., Finin, T., Glance, N.S., Nicolov, N., Tseng, B.L., (eds.) ICWSM. The AAAI Press (2009)Gressel, G., Hrudya, P., Surendran, K., Thara, S., Aravind, A., Prabaharan, P.: Ensemble Learning Approach for Author Profiling-Notebook for PAN at CLEF 2014. In: Cappellato, et al. [9]Grozea, C., Popescu, M.: ENCOPLOT - performance in the Second International Plagiarism Detection Challenge lab report for PAN at CLEF 2010. In: Braschler and Harman [8]Grozea, C., Gehl, C., Popescu, M.: ENCOPLOT: pairwise sequence matching in linear time applied to plagiarism detection. In: Stein et al., (ed.) Overview of the 1st International Competition on Plagiarism Detection, pp. 10–18 (2009)Gunning, R.: The Technique of Clear Writing. McGraw-Hill Int. Book Co, New York (1952)Gupta, P., Barrón-Cedeño, A., Rosso, P.: Cross-language high similarity search using a conceptual thesaurus. In: Catarci, T., Peñas, A., Santucci, G., Forner, P., Hiemstra, D. (eds.) CLEF 2012. LNCS, vol. 7488, pp. 67–75. Springer, Heidelberg (2012)Honore, A.: Some simple measures of richness of vocabulary. Assoc. Lit. Linguist. Comput. Bull. 7(2), 172–177 (1979)IEEE. A Plagiarism FAQ. http://www.ieee.org/publications_standards/publications/rights/plagiarism_FAQ.html (2008). Published: 2008; Last Accessed 25 November 2012Koppel, M., Argamon, S., Shimoni, A.R.: Automatically categorizing written texts by author gender. Lit. Linguist. Comput. 17(4), 401–412 (2002)Liau, Y., Vrizlynn, L.: Submission to the author profiling competition at pan-2014. In: Proceedings Recent Advances in Natural Language Processing III (2014). http://www.webis.de/research/events/pan-14Lopez-Monroy, A.P., Montes-Y-Gomez, M., Escalante, H.J., Villaseñor-Pineda, L., Villatoro-Tello, E.: INAOE’s participation at PAN 2013: author profiling task–notebook for PAN at CLEF 2013. In: Forner, et al. [14]Pastor López-Monroy, A., Montes y Gómez, M., Escalante, H.J., Villaseñor-Pineda, L.: Using Intra-profile information for author profiling-notebook for PAN at CLEF 2014. In: Cappellato, et al. [9]Maharjan, S., Shrestha, P., Solorio, T.: A simple approach to author profiling in MapReduce–notebook for PAN at CLEF 2014. In: Cappellato, et al. [9]Marquardt, J., Fanardi, G., Vasudevan, G., Moens, M.F., Davalos, S., Teredesai, A., De Cock, M.: Age and gender identification in social media-notebook for PAN at CLEF 2014. In: Cappellato, et al. [9]Martin, B.: Plagiarism: policy against cheating or policy for learning? Nexus (Newsl. Aust. Sociol. Assoc.) 16(2), 15–16 (2004)Mcnamee, P., Mayfield, J.: Character n-gram tokenization for european language text retrieval. Inf. Retr. 7(1), 73–97 (2004)Meina, M., Brodzinska, K., Celmer, B., Czokow, M., Patera, M., Pezacki, J., Wilk, M.: Ensemble-based classification for author profiling using various features-notebook for PAN at CLEF 2013. In: Forner, et al. [14]Eissen, S.M., Stein, B.: Intrinsic plagiarism detection. In: Tombros, A., Yavlinsky, A., Rüger, S.M., Tsikrika, T., Lalmas, M., MacFarlane, A. (eds.) ECIR 2006. LNCS, vol. 3936, pp. 565–569. Springer, Heidelberg (2006)Montes y Gómez, M., Gelbukh, A.F., López-López, A., Baeza-Yates, R.A.: Flexible comparison of conceptual graphs. In: Proceedings DEXA, pp. 102–111 (2001)Navigli, R., Ponzetto, S.P.: BabelNet: the automatic construction, evaluation and application of a wide-coverage multilingual semantic network. Artif. Intell. 193, 217–250 (2012)Nawab, R.M.A., Stevenson, M., Clough, P.: University of sheffield lab report for pan at clef 2010. In: Braschler and Harman [8]Nguyen, D., Gravel, R., Trieschnigg, D., Meder, T.: “how old do you think i am?”; a study of language and age in twitter. In: Proceedings of the Seventh International AAAI Conference on Weblogs and Social Media (2013)Oberreuter, G., Eiselt, A.: Submission to the 6th international competition on plagiarism detection, From Innovand.io, Chile (2014). http://www.webis.de/research/events/pan-14Och, F.J., Ney, H.: A systematic comparison of various statistical alignment models. Comput. Linguist. 29(1), 19–51 (2003)Palkovskii, Y., Belov, A.: Developing high-resolution universal multi-type N-Gram plagiarism detector-notebook for PAN at CLEF 2014. In: Cappellato, et al. [9]Pennebaker, J.W., Mehl, M.R., Niederhoffer, K.G.: Psychological aspects of natural language use: our words, our selves. Ann. Rev. Psychol. 54(1), 547–577 (2003)Potthast, M., Stein, B., Barrón-Cedeño, A., Rosso, P.: An evaluation framework for plagiarism detection. In: COLING 2010: Proceedings of the 23rd International Conference on Computational Linguistics, pp. 997–1005 (2010)Potthast, M., Stein, B., Anderka, M.: A wikipedia-based multilingual retrieval model. In: Plachouras, V., Macdonald, C., Ounis, I., White, R.W., Ruthven, I. (eds.) ECIR 2008. LNCS, vol. 4956, pp. 522–530. Springer, Heidelberg (2008)Potthast, M., Stein, B., Eiselt, A., Barrón-Cedeño, A., Rosso, P.:. Overview of the 1st international competition on plagiarism detection. In: Stein, B., Rosso, P., Stamatatos, E., Koppel, M., Agirre, E., (eds.) Proceedings of the SEPLN 2009 Workshop on Uncovering Plagiarism, Authorship, and Social Software Misuse (PAN 2009), pp. 1–9, 2009. CEUR-WS.org (September 2009). http://ceur-ws.org/Vol-502Potthast, M., Barrón-Cedeño, A., Eiselt, A., Stein, B., Rosso, P.: Overview of the 2nd International Competition on Plagiarism Detection. In: Braschler and Harman [8]Potthast, M., Barrón-Cedeño, A., Eiselt, A., Stein, B., Rosso, P.: Overview of the 2nd international competition on plagiarism detection. In: Braschler, M., Harman, D., Pianta, E., (eds.) Working Notes Papers of the CLEF 2010 Evaluation Labs (September 2010) 2010. http://www.clef-initiative.eu/publication/working-notesPotthast, M., Barrón-Cedeño, A., Stein, B., Rosso, P.: Cross-language plagiarism detection. Lang. Resour. Eval. 45(1), 45–62 (2011)Potthast, M., Eiselt, A., Barrón-Cedeño, A., Stein, B., Rosso, P.: Overview of the 3rd international competition on plagiarism detection. In: Petras, V., Forner, P., Clough, P., (eds.) Working Notes Papers of the CLEF 2011 Evaluation Labs (September 2011) (2011). http://www.clef-initiative.eu/publication/working-notesPotthast, M., Gollub, T., Hagen, M., Grabegger, J., Kiesel, J., Michel, M., Oberlander, A., Tippmann, M., Barrón-Cedeño, A., Gupta, P., Rosso, P., Stein, B.: Overview of the 4th international competition on plagiarism detection. In: Forner, P., Karlgren, J., Womser-Hacker, C., (eds.) Working Notes Papers of the CLEF 2012 Evaluation Labs (September 2012) (2012). http://www.clef-initiative.eu/publication/working-notesPotthast, M., Hagen, M., Stein, B., Grabegger, J., Michel, M., Tippmann, M., Welsch, C.: Chatnoir: a search engine for the clueweb09 corpus. 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The Use of Orthogonal Similarity Relations in the Prediction of Authorship
The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-37256-8_38Recent work on Authorship Attribution (AA) proposes the use of meta characteristics to train author models. The meta characteristics are orthogonal sets of similarity relations between the features from the different candidate authors. In that approach, the features are grouped and processed separately according to the type of information they encode, the so called linguistic modalities. For instance, the syntactic, stylistic and semantic features are each considered different modalities as they represent different aspects of the texts. The assumption is that the independent extraction of meta characteristics results in more informative feature vectors, that in turn result in higher accuracies. In this paper we set out to the task of studying the empirical value of this modality specific process. We experimented with different ways of generating the meta characteristics on different data sets with different numbers of authors and genres. Our results show that by extracting the meta characteristics from splitting features by their linguistic dimension we achieve consistent improvement of prediction accuracy.This research was partially supported by ONR grant N00014-12-1-0217 and by NSF award 1254108. It was also supported in part by the CONACYT grant 134186 and by the European Commission as part of the WIQ-EI project (project no. 269180) within the FP7 People Programme.Sapkota, U.; Solorio, T.; Montes Gómez, M.; Rosso, P. (2013). The use of orthogonal similarity relations in the prediction of authorship. En Computational Linguistics and Intelligent Text Processing. Springer Verlag (Germany). 463-475. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-37256-8_38S463475Baker, L.D., McCallum, A.: Distributional clustering of words for text classification. 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The effects of fiscal consolidation in the OECD
Despite the current recession in many parts of the OECD, fiscal consolidation is likely in many OECD economies in the 1990s. The author asks: is fiscal consolidation in the OECD in a period of low growth a recipe for global stagnation? In particular, what effects are likely in developing countries? The author starts with an overview of cuts in the U.S. fiscal deficit proposed by the Clinton administration and the extent to which European governments must cut fiscal deficits between now and 1997 to satisfy deficit targets in the Maastricht Treaty. How changes in fiscal policy are transmitted within an economy and between that economy and the rest of the world depends on whether those changes lead to permanent or temporary changes in government saving; whether they are implemented through government spending or taxes; and whether the taxes fall on households or firms. The main channels of transmission are through changes in: agents'expectations about future taxes, interest rates, exchange rates, and economic activity. The author uses the MSG2 multicountry models to quantify the ramifications of those changes. He concludes, among other things, that fiscal contraction in the OECD will probably lead to slower growth over the next several years. But the current and likely paths of fiscal policy are such that deficit reduction programs may have stimulating effect in the short run, as long as future fiscal contraction is credible. And fiscal deficit reduction will probably increase long-run output in the OECD through its effects on savings and investment. Finally, growth in the developing countries (at least total growth) may not be impaired at all by fiscal consolidationin the OECD. The negative effects of fiscal contraction will occur through lower net exports of non-OECD economies. For developing countries with open capital markets, the initial reduction in demand through lower exports can be offset by the reduction in interest rates following an inflow of capital from the countries with contracting fiscal policy. A significant decline in real global interest rates is likely to increase growth in developing countries that are debt-constrained, either directly (through private capital inflows) or indirectly (by relaxing the balance of payments constraint, allowing more resources to be channeled to domestic investment needs).Economic Theory&Research,Economic Stabilization,Environmental Economics&Policies,Banks&Banking Reform,Macroeconomic Management
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