171 research outputs found
Centro de consolidação e distribuição da cabotagem: uma alternativa competitiva para o transporte integrado de carga geral no Brasil /
Get PDFTese (doutorado) - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Centro Tecnológico.O Brasil é um país de dimensões continentais e possuidor de um imenso potencial aquaviário, seja fluvial interior ou marítimo. Aliado a isso, seus maiores centros produtivos concentram-se numa estreita faixa litorânea, onde se localizam seus maiores centros consumidores. Apesar dessas características amplamente favoráveis ao transporte aquaviário, o País vem dirigindo o fluxo de seus produtos, basicamente, para o modal rodoviário em detrimento do aquaviário. O presente trabalho procurou, primeiramente, analisar as causas que determinaram o declínio do transporte costeiro de carga geral (cabotagem), ao longo dos anos. Posteriormente, foi desenvolvido um trabalho de pesquisa, no qual foram envolvidas empresas usuárias de transportes, onde se procurou levantar os problemas e as condicionantes que vêm impedindo ou restringindo o pleno emprego da navegação costeira de carga geral. A partir daí, procurou-se planejar uma estrutura logística que viesse atender aos anseios e às condicionantes dos usuários, tornando viável a utilização da cabotagem como modal competitivo do rodoviário. Foi analisado o que a cabotagem oferece hoje, em termos de transporte de carga geral, partindo-se, posteriormente, para uma situação otimizada. Uma vez atendidas as principais condicionantes e os entraves apontados pelos usuários para utilização da cabotagem, parte-se de uma perspectiva otimista com relação à transferência de carga do unimodal rodoviário para o bimodal rodo-aquaviário. Partindo desse novo contexto, foram determinados os reflexos positivos alcançados
Representing Roomates' Preferences with Symmetric Utilities
Get PDFIn the context of the stable roommates problem, it is shown that acyclicity of preferences is equivalent to the existence of symmetric utility functions, i.e. the utility of agent i when matched with j is the same as j 's utility when matched with i .
Interdependence and Contagion: an Analysis of Information Transmission in Latin America's Stock Markets
Get PDFThis paper brings evidences about the hypotheses of financial crisis contagion over Latin American stock markets in the 90's using a multivariate GARCH model. Beside the traditional volatility structure, we added a leverage term like GJR framework in order to avoid problems due to the use of conditional correlation as a measure of relationship between stock markets. The results show the existence of contagion only during the Asian (1997) and the Russian (1998) crises. The consequences of the Brazilian crisis (1999) can be identified as a result of interdependence among Latin American markets, while the crises of Mexico (1994) and Argentina (2001) show a specific mechanism of propagation. This result raises questions about the "contagion" and "interdependence" concepts' adequacy for the analysis of information transmission among stock markets.
Modelo de Clutter na modelagem de crescimento e produção de eucalipto em sistemas de integração lavoura-pecuária-floresta
Get PDFO objetivo deste trabalho foi definir a melhor forma de uso do modelo de Clutter para estimar o crescimento e a produção de clones de eucalipto em sistemas de integração lavoura-pecuária-floresta. Foram utilizados dados de sistemas de integração localizados na região noroeste do Estado de Minas Gerais. Os dados foram originados a partir de 180 parcelas permanentes de inventário florestal contínuo, de 30x40 m, contendo três fileiras de dez árvores, com amostragem casual estratificada de intensidade de uma parcela para cada 10 ha. O número médio de árvores por hectare foi de 242. Foram avaliadas plantas com idades de 20 a 95 meses. As melhores relações funcionais foram obtidas a partir do uso do modelo original de Clutter, com base na significância e nos sinais esperados das estimativas de seus parâmetros. O ajuste do modelo de Clutter deve ser feito na sua forma completa
Out-Of-The_Money Monte Carlo Simulation Option Pricing: the join use of Importance Sampling and Descriptive Sampling
Get PDFAs in any Monte Carlo application, simulation option valuation produces imprecise estimates. In such an application, Descriptive Sampling (DS) has proven to be a powerful Variance Reduction Technique. However, this performance deteriorates as the probability of exercising an option decreases. In the case of out of the money options, the solution is to use Importance Sampling (IS). Following this track, the joint use of IS and DS is deserving of attention. Here, we evaluate and compare the benefits of using standard IS method with the joint use of IS and DS. We also investigate the influence of the problem dimensionality in the variance reduction achieved. Although the combination IS+DS showed gains over the standard IS implementation, the benefits in the case of out-of-the-money options were mainly due to the IS effect. On the other hand, the problem dimensionality did not affect the gains. Possible reasons for such results are discussed.
The Effect of Adverse Supply Shocks on Monetary Policy and Output
Get PDFThe aim of the present research is to use a model economy built for Brazil, based on an optimizing dynamic general equilibrium model, in order to perform numerical simulations to derive the ability of the artificial economy to explain the impact of monetary policy interventions on short run economic performance in terms of the inflation rate, output gap, interest rate and level of economic activity in the face of an adverse supply shock. Alternative specification of monetary reaction functions are introduced into the model economy in order to perform a sensitivity analysis of derived impulse responses to those interventions facing the negative productivity shock. The preliminary results suggest that the introduction of habit persistence into the consumption hypothesis does not make much difference. However the introduction of different monetary reaction functions does alter the impulse response of output, inflation rate, and nominal interest rate. A common result is the decline in potential output for all models. Additionally, the only case where a reduction in the output gap is observed is when using the Taylor rule that takes into consideration the output gap and past interest rates with high persistence.
Judicial Risk and Credit Market Performance: Micro Evidence from Brazil Payroll Loans
Get PDFA large body of literature has stressed the institution-development nexus as critical in explaining differences in countries' economic performance. The empirical evidence, however, has been mainly at the aggregate level, associating macro performance with measures of quality of institutions. This paper, by relating a judicial decision on the legality of payroll debit loans in Brazil to bank-level decision variables, provides micro evidence on how creditor legal protection affects market performance. Payroll loans are personal loans with principal and interests payments directly deducted from the borrowers' payroll check, which, in practice, makes a collateral out of future income. In June 2004, a high-level federal court upheld a regional court ruling that had declared payroll deduction illegal. Using personal loans without payroll deduction as a control group, we assess whether the ruling had an impact on market performance. Evidence indicates that it had an adverse impact on risk perception, interest rates, and amount lent.
Is the Investment-Uncertainty Link Really Elusive? The Harmful Effects of Inflation Uncertainty in Brazil
Get PDFAfter being one the fastest growing countries in the world during the 1940-80 period, with an average growth rate of 6.8%, Brazil has experienced a severe growth slowdown since the 1980s, which coincided with the steep rise in inflation as of 1980. At the same time, real investment rates have plunged, shrinking around nine percentage points just in the 1980s. Moreover, they were unable to recover their 1989 level afterwards. This is unexpected as several pro-growth reforms took place since 1990, such as trade liberalization, privatization and economic stabilization. More strikingly, in the ten years following the stabilization of the economy, real investment rates have being at their lowest levels for, at least, fifty years. One major factor that could help explaining this dismal behavior is inflation uncertainty, which have remained high despite much lower inflation since 1994. Indeed, inflation uncertainty is at the root as many types of uncertainties faced by firms. For example, it also means uncertainty about future interest rates and demand. This work aims both at uncovering the main determinants that have driven M&E investment in Brazil since 1980 and testing the link between inflation uncertainty and investment. The evidence strongly suggests that inflation uncertainty has been an important investment deterrent in Brazil, both in the short and long runs. Moreover, its effects were found to be asymmetric. Also, despite the limited role played by price variables in empirical studies of investment, the real interest rate, itself importantly affected by inflation uncertainty and inflation risk premium, seems to be another key factor in explaining low investment rates in Brazil.
Inflation Targeting in Brazil: Constructing Credibility under Exchange Rate Volatility
Get PDFThis paper assesses the challenges faced by the inflation-targeting regime in Brazil. The confidence crisis in the future performance of the Brazilian economy and the increase in risk aversion in international markets were responsible for a sudden stop of capital inflows in 2002 that caused a significant depreciation of the exchange rate. The inflation-targeting framework has played a critical role in macroeconomic stabilization. We stress two important challenges: construction of credibility and exchange rate volatility. The estimations indicate the following results: i) the inflation targets have worked as an important coordinator of expectations; ii) the Central Bank has reacted strongly to inflation expectations; iii) there has been a reduction in the degree of inflation persistence; and iv) the exchange rate pass-through for "administered or monitored" prices is two times higher than for "market" prices.
Bank Competition, Agency Costs and the Performance of the Monetary Policy
Get PDFThis paper extends the general equilibrium literature on bank competition in order to evaluate its role on the performance of the monetary policy. A new formulation of a financial contract taking into consideration both market power by banks as well as costly state verification is proposed here. Numerical simulations with the model economy parameterized to the Brazilian case are performed. Two cases are examined: One in which the banking sector is perfectly competitive and the other one when banks have market power. The main conclusions of the paper are the following: (1) Greater competition in the loan market enhances the response of the real economy to an interest rate shock; (2) Increased competition and/or a more efficient verification technology reduce the reaction of both the default rate and of the bank interest spread to an interest rate shock; and (3) The influence of the verification technology in the economy's dynamic response is greater when banks operate under perfect competition.
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