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    Duration dependence in the exit from a temporary job: does contract type matter?

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    In order to enhance the flexibility of the labour market and to stress the capabilities to create jobs, a progressive liberalization of flexible contracts has been adopted in Italy during the Nineties. This paper provides a description of the transition patterns of temporary workers towards a stable job, identifying the duration dependence associated with a temporary work experience. In other words, the crucial question is the extent to which temporary contracts represent a stepping stone towards an open ended job and whether the Treu law has modified the traditional pattern in terms of duration dependence. I base my empirical evidence on a longitudinal sample of workers in Italy, using an administrative dataset extracted by the social security archives for the years 1992-2002. Empirically, I adopt a single risk proportional hazard model, employing a piecewise constant baseline hazard. I find that the introduction of Treu law has substantially reduced the positive duration dependence in the probability of moving from temporary to permanent job. Additionally, this result is robust to the adoption of several specifications. However, not all temporary contracts show the same pattern: for instance, TWA employment and apprenticeship (in some time spans) exhibit negative duration dependence after the reform, suggesting a less relevant positive effect of continuous employment on the subsequent career paths

    The implications of temporary jobs on the distribution of wages in Italy: an unconditional IVQTE approach

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    Using Italian data, this paper investigates the wage implications of temporary jobs across the whole pay profile using unconditional quantile regression (UQR) models. Results clearly indicate that the wage penalty associated to temporary jobs is significantly larger at the bottom of wage profile and is almost absent for high-wage jobs. This is in line with the sticky floors hypothesis, supporting the idea that the wage gap for temporary employees depends on their position in the wage distribution for low-paid jobs. To recover a causal interpretation, I employ an instrumental variable (IV) strategy. I adopt the unconditional instrumental variable quantile treatment effects (IVQTE) estimator proposed by Frolich and Melly, which corrects for endogenous selection in temporary contracts. The IVQTE estimates yield similar results to standard UQR, even if the wage penalty is larger in size at the bottom of the wage distribution and disappears at the top quantiles. This evidence highlights that policies aimed at increasing flexibility may reinforce the two-tier nature of the Italian labour market and the relative wage inequality

    Higher education expansion, human capital externalities and wages: Italian evidence within occupation

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    The Italian system of higher education has recently experienced a process of radical transformation. The so-called 3+2 university reform reflects a big increase in the supply of college graduates that has attracted the attention of policy makers and fostered the debate on the size of human capital externalities. Using the 2009 Italian Labour Force Survey and incorporating a measure of graduate density within each occupation, in this article, we explore whether the social returns to education exceeds the private return and less educated workers gain more than college educated workers from spillovers associated with higher college share in their relative occupation. The OLS results clearly indicate that increases in graduate density have positive effects on wages and that the effect is larger for less educated workers, also controlling for potential confounding factors. However, the concentration of college workers across occupations is such that we may have a potential endogeneity problem. In order to recover a causal interpretation and to isolate the effect of graduate density, we employ an IV strategy exploiting the lagged demographic and occupational structure and the variation in the introduction of 3+2 courses at regional level. Merely, IV estimates largely indicate that the size of spillovers is significantly increased with respect to standard OLS results. Indeed, we estimate that a 1% increase in the college share within occupation raises wages by 0.9-1.3% for male and female, respectively. The effect is further larger for less educated workers

    The impact of Bologna process on the graduate labour market: demand and supply

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    The Bologna process inspired the Italian 3+2 reform of the university system which constitutes a big increase in the supply of college graduates. This paper is a preliminary attempt to identify the effects of the reform on (i) the relative probability (relative to nongraduates) of employment of college graduates in the age range 25-34; (ii) their quality of employment measured with the relative probability of being employed with a temporary contract; (iii) the college wage premium. Using administrative data to identify the gradual introduction of the reform in different universities, we find that the reform increases significantly the relative employment of graduates except for women in the South where the rapid increase of female post-reform graduates has not been absorbed by the weak labour market. Finally we find that post-reform college graduates have a significantly lower college premium with respect to high school graduates than pre-reform graduates

    Healthy, wealthy or busy? Self-employment and healthcare services utilization in Europe

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    In this paper we investigate the relationship between different types of self-employment and healthcare utilization across Europe. The empirical analysis is based on 2004 and 2014 individual data for 21 European countries from the European Social Survey (ESS), which, in these two waves, contains detailed information on individual employment status and use of healthcare services. After controlling for selection into employment status, our estimates point out that, compared to the employees, the self-employed without employees are significantly less likely to use healthcare services, while no statistically significant differences emerge for the other type of self-employed (i.e., those with employees). Further exploratory analyses seem to indicate that these differences are driven by a number of factors, such as differences in perceived health, wealth and opportunity costs. An important role is played by cross-country differences in healthcare systems: in particular, we find that self-employed without employees are much less likely to use healthcare services where the latter are provided by private actors

    Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis

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    The present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
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