10 research outputs found
Influenza, malaria parasitemia, and typhoid fever coinfection in children: Seroepidemiological investigation in four Health-care Centers in Lagos, Nigeria
No full textObjectives: There are similarities in the presentation of influenza-A infection, malaria, and typhoid fever which include their overlapping clinical symptoms such as fever and myalgia. Coinfection may be easily missed and may lead to more severe associated morbidity. This study, therefore, investigated the prevalence of coinfection of influenza A, malaria, and typhoid fever in children in four locations in Lagos and determined their age, gender, and location-related prevalence.Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional hospital-based study was conducted between March and October 2018. Children less than 15 years attending four health centers in Festac, Amuwo, Ojo, and Shibiri were recruited consecutively. Demographic and epidemiological data were obtained using structured questionnaires, to ascertain children with influenza-like symptoms. Their blood samples were then tested with rapid diagnostic method for malaria and typhoid fever. The children were further screened for influenza-A-specific IgM using ELISA method. Descriptive statistics were reported while p-values were determined for comparable parameters using Chi-square.Results: There were 364 children aged <1–14 years including 207 (56.9%) males. Of the 364 children tested, 76/364 (20.9%) were seropositive for influenza-A virus out of which 47/76 (61.8%) had malaria parasitemia, 42/76 (55.3%) had typhoid fever, and 21/76 (27.6%) were coinfected with both malaria parasites and Salmonella enteric Typhi. Children coinfected with influenza-A and malaria were found with a higher frequency of chest pain and cold/chill symptom respectively compared to children having influenza alone (P = 0.0001). Seropositivity for influenza was recorded in all the months studied with the month of March recording the highest influenza-A seropositivity of 20/76 (26.3%) (P = 0.02).Conclusion: This study detected 27.6% trio coinfection seroprevalence of influenza Type-A, malaria, and typhoid fever among children population. The finding is unique being the first of such report, to the best of our knowledge. Children coinfected with influenza-A and malaria had greater morbidity
An Examination of Contemporary Conflict Management Approach in the 21st Century Nigeria
No full textConflict is inseparable part of human being, and an attempt to ignore it will lead to tragedy. The history of conflict in Nigeria and its resolution dated with the birth of the country. The study did a critical analysis of modern conflict management approaches in the contemporary Nigeria. The study is historical in nature relying mainly on secondary source of data collection. The work found that conflict in Nigeria is caused by multiplicity of factors such as colonial legacy, ethnic identity, religious affiliation, land and ecology factor, worsening economic conditions, and discrimination and neglect among others. Suppression, judicial process, state creation, creation of specialized ministry, synergistic approach and interfaith peacemaking among various approaches have been employed to manage the conflict in the country. The study discovered among proliferation of institutions, unclear legal and policy framework, primordial factor, financial constraints, lack of political will, and weak administration of justice as factors hindering the effectiveness of the approaches. The paper concluded by recommending combine participation, inclusion of expert in formulation of strategies, capacity building, enactment of legal frameworks and arms control. Judicial and security sectors reformed is also fundamental to the effective conflict management in Nigeria.
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JOURNAL OF HUMAN KINETICS & HEALTH EDUCATION PEDAGOGY: MEDICAL PRACTITIONERS’ PERCEPTION OF CULTURAL AND LANGUAGE BARRIERS TO PATIENT-CENTRED INTERACTION IN A TERTIARY HEALTH INSTITUTION IN EKITI STATE
No full textEDITORIAL
With the consistent patronage of the Journal of Human Kinetics and Health Education Pedagogy (JOKHED) by various researchers and the reading public, we are compelled to publish this SPECIAL EDITION of the Journal (Vol, 6, No 1, 2024), dedicated to
PROFESSOR JOSEPH AFOLAYAN ADEGBOYEGA.
The Editorial Board deployed appropriate logistics to screen and select articles with high quality and in conformity with the international standard of JOKHED.
This SPECIAL EDITION ascertains the publication of articles from diverse segments of Sport for Fitness, Wellness and Education pedagogy. We shall not relent in our avowed commitment to always put the journal in academic domain at least two times a year.
My profound appreciation goes to the members of the Editorial Board for their individual participation, and especially, the Ag.Head of Department and Assistant Editor in the successful publication of this SPECIAL EDITION of the Journal.
Professor Patrick Oladepo OYENIYI,
Editor- In- Chief
ii
Vol. 6, No. 1, 2024 Journal of Human Kinetics and Health Education Pedagogy
EDITORIAL BOARD
Editor –in-Chief
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Professor Patrick Oladepo Oyeniyi
Assistant Editor
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Dr. (Mrs.) S. E. Ogunsile
Acting Head of Department
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Dr. (Mrs.) A. O. Awosusi
Consulting Editors
Prof. A. L. Toriola
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Tehwane University of Technology, South Africa
Prof. (Mrs) F.A. Alade
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Ekiti State University, Ado-Ekiti
Prof. J. F. Babalola
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University of Ibadan, Ibadan
Prof. J. A. Adegun
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Olumilua University of Education, Science and
Technology, Ikere-Ekiti
Prof. S. A. Adeyanju
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Lead City University, Ibadan
Prof. (Mrs) C. F. Ogundana
Ekiti State University, Ado-Ekiti
Prof. L. O. Eboh
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Delta State University, Abraka
Prof. A. O. Akeredolu
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Lagos State University, Ojoo, Lagos
Prof. M. Yakassai
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Bayero University, Kano
Prof. O. A. Onifade
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University of Ilorin, Ilorin
Publication Committee
Prof. Pat Ola Oyeniyi
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Chairman
Prof. O. B. Ajayi-Vincent
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Prof. (Mrs) P.E. Konwea
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Mrs. O. O. Aina
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Dr. (Mrs.) S. E. Ogunsile
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Secretary
PROFILE OF PROFESSOR JOSEPH AFOLAYAN ADEGBOYEGA
Joseph Afolayan Adegboyega is a Professor of Health Education in the Faculty of Education, Ekiti State University, Ado-Ekiti. He had his Master’s and Ph.D degrees from the University of Ife (now Obafemi Awolowo University). He was the Head of Department of Human Kinetics and health
Education (2011 – 2013).
Professor Adegboyega has attended many academic seminars, workshops and conferences at both local and international levels.
He was the lead paper presenter at the 2017 Nigerian School Health Association Conference held at Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife. A keynote address presenter at the World Red Cross Day at Ado-Ekiti, Ekiti State in 2017. A keynote address presenter at the Annual National Conference of the
School of Science, Adeyemi College of Education, Ondo in 2023. A lead paper presenter at the Scientific Forum of West African University Games (WAUG) Championship at Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife in 2023. A Guest lecturer at the 2024 Zonal Conference of Special Marshals comprising Ekiti, Kwara and Kogi States in 2024. He is a well-grounded researcher nationally and internationally. He has authored, edited and published many books including 77 articles in both local and international recognized learned journals.
Professor Adegboyega has attended many training and capacity building programmes and served in numerous administrative capacities as a member or chairman of many committees and panels. He was an External Examiner to many Universities and a seasoned resource person and organizer of seminars, workshops and conferences at both State and University levels. His remarkable achievements while in the University as a lead organizer of conferences and capacity building training programmes included the following:
The 1st National Conference on ‘The Role of Education in Tackling Global Economic
Recession in Nigeria- 2017.
The 2nd National Conference on ‘Emerging Global Trends in Education and
Sustainable Development in 2018
The 3rd National Conference on ‘Educational Approaches to Combating Security
Challenges in Nigeria- 2019
One-day capacity building workshop for Academi Staff on ‘Ethics in Academics’-2019
One-day capacity building workshop for Academic Staff on ‘Advanced Research
Designs, Methods of Writing Proposals to Attract Grants and Rules of Engagement of Academic Staff.
As an astute Lecturer and Professor, he taught and supervised many undergraduates and postgraduate courses and students. He successfully supervised 9 Ph.D holders.
Professor Adegboyega is a member of International Council for Health, Physical Education, Recreation, Sport, and Dance (ICHPER.SD); Nigerian Association of Physical,
Health Education, Recreation, Sport and Dance (APHERSD, Nigeria Chapter); Nigeria Association of Sports Science and Medicine (NASSM); Nigerian School Health Association (NSHA), (NJHE); Nigerian Association of Health Educators; Teachers Registration Council of Nigeria; to mention but view.
He held many duty posts in the university such as: Head of Department; Ag. Chairman, Ekiti State University Sports Council, Ado-Ekiti; Chairman, Fact-Finding Committee on Students Protest; Chairman, Faculty of Education Research Committee. He has presented papers and Lead Papers at various conferences in Nigeria and other countries globally.
He has received many awards amongst them are: Certificate of Honour by National Youth Soccer Clubs as Deputy Director of NAYSOC, Ekiti State; Certificate of Honour by Association of Physical, Health Education and Recreation, College of Education, Ikere Chapter, Ekiti State; Certificate of Honour by Ekiti State University Sports Council; Award of Honour as Icon of Efficiency by Faculty of Education, Ekiti State University, Ado-Ekiti; Award of Excellence by University Staff Sports Clubs; Letter of Commendation by College of Education, Ikere-Ekiti; Letter of Commendation by Federal Road Safety Corps, Zone 8, Zonal Headquarter, Ilorin; Letter of Commendation by Federal Road Safety Corps, Ekiti State Command; Award of Excellence by Federal Road Safety Corps, RS8.2 Ekiti Sector Command, Ado-Ekiti
His Service outside the University
Represented, University of Ife (Now Obafemi Awolowo University) Ile – Ife and won Medal in 4 by 100meters relay race at WAUG, 1977.
Represented, University Ife (Now Obafemi Awolowo University) Ile – Ife at NUGA, Lagos 1978 and NUGA, Benin-City, 1980 won Medals in the sprints.
Represented, Nigeria at the FISU Games in Nairobi, Kenya 1978 won bronze medal in the 4 by 100 metres relay
Represented Oyo State at the National Sports Festival, Ibadan, Oluyole, 1979 in 100 metres and 4 by 100 metres relay
Participated in 100 metres and 200 metres at the European Southern County Athletics Competitions, Crystal Palace, London, 1979
Member of Ekiti South Zonal Sports Committee 1996 to 2012
Coordinator (Athletics) NICEGA Games, Katsina, 1992, Kano 1996, Ilesa, 2005
Chairman, Technical/Venue/Talent Hunting Sub-Committee, 1st Ekiti State Sports Festival, 1998.
Secretary, Federation of Youth Soccer Clubs, Ekiti State, 1997 – 1998
Vice-Chairman, Ekiti State Football Association, 1999 – 2003
Athletics Official at the Nigeria Polytechnic Games (NIPOGA), Ado – Ekiti, 2008
Unit Coordinator, RS 8.2 Federal Road Safety Corps, College of Education, Ikere – Ekiti 1995 – 2005
State Coordinator RS 8.2 Federal Road Safety Corps, Ekiti State, April 2005 to August, 2012.
Chairman, National Youth Soccer Clubs (NAYSOC), 2011-2018
Member, Technical/Venue Sub-Committee, 3rd Ekiti State Sports Festival, 2012
Member, Ekiti State Athletics Federation of Nigeria, 2014.
Member of the Brain Trust Group set up by Ekiti State Government on Revenue Generation Drive for Sustainable Development, 2015.
Member of National Association of Athletics Technical Officials (NAATO), Ekiti State Chapter.
Public Organised Programmes
Major Public Programmes Organised by Adegboyega, J. A. between 2013 and 2019 as A Lead Consultant for the following Management Training Programmes sponsored by Local Government Service Commission, Ekiti State
A 2-Day Management Training Programme on Effective Verbal Communication in the Public for Ekiti State Local Government Personnel from May 15-16, 2013 held at Pastoral Centre, Ado=Ekiti
A 2-Day Management Training Programme on Corruption Alleviation and Enhance Effective Accounting and Auditing Practice at Local Government for Local Government Personnel from May 22-23, 2013 held at Royal Castles and Suites
A 2-Day Management Training Programme on Skills and Competence Development for Effective Job Performance for Local Government Staff from June 10-11, 2013 held at Local Government Training School, Ilawe-Ekiti
A 2-Day Management Training Programme on Control of Environmental Health Hazards at the Local Government level for Health Environmental Officers from July 2-3, 2013 held at Pastoral Centre, Ado-Ekiti
A 2- Day Management Training Programme on Communication Skills and Report Writing for Effective Job Performance in Public Administration for Local Government Staff from August 22-23, 2013 held at Local Government Staff Training School, Ilawe- Ekiti, Ekiti State
A 3-Day Management Training Programme on Mentoring of Supporting Personnel for Effective Management of Local Government Administration in Ekiti State from May 14-16, 2014 held at Royal Birds Hotels, Ijapo Estate, Akure, Ondo State
A 2-Day Management Training Programme on Public Servants: An Unbiased Umpire in a Democratic Society for Local Government Personnel from June 4-6, 2014 held at Royal Birds Hotels, Alagbaka, Akure, Ondo State.
A 2-Day Retreat on Strategies for Effective Administration in the Local Government Service for Top Management Staff of Ekiti State Local Government from November 10-11, 2015 held at Ikogosi Warm Spring Resort, Ikogosi-Ekiti, Ekiti State
One-Day Management Training Programme on Ebola-the Ragging Scourge, Myth and Truth for Staff of Local Government on October 13, 2014 held at Local Government Staff Training School, Ilawe- Ekiti, Ekiti State
A 2-Day Management Training Workshop on Computer Office Applications and Statistical Programming for Local Government Computer Operators from September 5-6, 2019 held at Local Government Training School, Ilawe- Ekiti, Ekiti State
One -Day Training Workshop on Living a Healthy Life, Stress Management and Agribusiness for Sustainable Food Security for Staff of Ministry of Local Government and Community Development, Ekiti State on July 16, held at West Gate Hotel, Ajebamidele, Ado-Ekiti
He retired meritoriously from the services of Ekiti State University Ado Ekiti having attained the mandatory retirement age.
He is married with children.
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FOR FURTHER ENQUIRIES
All Correspondence address to:
Editor-In-Chief Ag. Head of Department
Prof. Pat Ola Oyeniyi Dr. (Mrs.) A. O. Awosusi
Department of Human Kinetics Department of Human Kinetics
& Health Education, & Health Education,
Faculty of Education, Faculty of Education,
Ekiti State University, Ado-Ekiti Ekiti State University, Ado-Ekiti
+2348067199741 +2348030707463
Assistant Editor
Dr. (Mrs.) S. E. Ogunsile
Department of Human Kinetics
Health Education, Faculty of Education,
Ekiti State University, Ado-Ekiti +234703902530
Global, regional, and national burden of HIV/AIDS, 1990–2021, and forecasts to 2050, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
No full textBackgroundAs set out in Sustainable Development Goal 3.3, the target date for ending the HIV epidemic as a public health threat is 2030. Therefore, there is a crucial need to evaluate current epidemiological trends and monitor global progress towards HIV incidence and mortality reduction goals. In this analysis, we assess the current burden of HIV in 204 countries and territories and forecast HIV incidence, prevalence, and mortality up to 2050 to allow countries to plan for a sustained response with an increasing number of people living with HIV globally. MethodsWe used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 analytical framework to compute age-sex-specific HIV mortality, incidence, and prevalence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990–2021). We aimed to analyse all available data sources, including data on the provision of HIV programmes reported to UNAIDS, published literature on mortality among people on antiretroviral therapy (ART) identified by a systematic review, household surveys, sentinel surveillance antenatal care clinic data, vital registration data, and country-level case report data. We calibrated a mechanistic simulation of HIV infection and natural history to available data to estimate HIV burden from 1990 to 2021 and generated forecasts to 2050 through projection of all simulation inputs into the future. Historical outcomes (1990–2021) were simulated at the 1000-draw level to support propagation of uncertainty and reporting of uncertainty intervals (UIs). Our approach to forecasting utilised the transmission rate as the basis for projection, along with new rate-of-change projections of ART coverage. Additionally, we introduced two new metrics to our reporting: prevalence of unsuppressed viraemia (PUV), which represents the proportion of the population without a suppressed level of HIV (viral load <1000 copies per mL), and period lifetime probability of HIV acquisition, which quantifies the hypothetical probability of acquiring HIV for a synthetic cohort, a simulated population that is aged from birth to death through the set of age-specific incidence rates of a given time period. FindingsGlobal new HIV infections decreased by 21·9% (95% UI 13·1–28·8) between 2010 and 2021, from 2·11 million (2·02–2·25) in 2010 to 1·65 million (1·48–1·82) in 2021. HIV-related deaths decreased by 39·7% (33·7–44·5), from 1·19 million (1·07–1·37) in 2010 to 718 000 (669 000–785 000) in 2021. The largest declines in both HIV incidence and mortality were in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. However, super-regions including central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and north Africa and the Middle East experienced increasing HIV incidence and mortality rates. The number of people living with HIV reached 40·0 million (38·0–42·4) in 2021, an increase from 29·5 million (28·1–31·0) in 2010. The lifetime probability of HIV acquisition remains highest in the sub-Saharan Africa super-region, where it declined from its 1995 peak of 21·8% (20·1–24·2) to 8·7% (7·5–10·7) in 2021. Four of the seven GBD super-regions had a lifetime probability of less than 1% in 2021. In 2021, sub-Saharan Africa had the highest PUV of 999·9 (857·4–1154·2) per 100 000 population, but this was a 64·5% (58·8–69·4) reduction in PUV from 2003 to 2021. In the same period, PUV increased in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia by 116·1% (8·0–218·2). Our forecasts predict a continued global decline in HIV incidence and mortality, with the number of people living with HIV peaking at 44·4 million (40·7–49·8) by 2039, followed by a gradual decrease. In 2025, we projected 1·43 million (1·29–1·59) new HIV infections and 615 000 (567 000–680 000) HIV-related deaths, suggesting that the interim 2025 targets for reducing these figures are unlikely to be achieved. Furthermore, our forecasted results indicate that few countries will meet the 2030 target for reducing HIV incidence and HIV-related deaths by 90% from 2010 levels. InterpretationOur forecasts indicate that continuation of current levels of HIV control are not likely to attain ambitious incidence and mortality reduction targets by 2030, and more than 40 million people globally will continue to require lifelong ART for decades into the future. The global community will need to show sustained and substantive efforts to make the progress needed to reach and sustain the end of AIDS as a public threat. FundingThe Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases
Global burden of 292 causes of death in 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational locations, 1990-2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023
No full textBackground: Timely and comprehensive analyses of causes of death stratified by age, sex, and location are essential for shaping effective health policies aimed at reducing global mortality. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 provides cause-specific mortality estimates measured in counts, rates, and years of life lost (YLLs). GBD 2023 aimed to enhance our understanding of the relationship between age and cause of death by quantifying the probability of dying before age 70 years (70q0) and the mean age at death by cause and sex. This study enables comparisons of the impact of causes of death over time, offering a deeper understanding of how these causes affect global populations. Methods: GBD 2023 produced estimates for 292 causes of death disaggregated by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2023. We used a modelling tool developed for GBD, the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to estimate cause-specific death rates for most causes. We computed YLLs as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. Probability of death was calculated as the chance of dying from a given cause in a specific age period, for a specific population. Mean age at death was calculated by first assigning the midpoint age of each age group for every death, followed by computing the mean of all midpoint ages across all deaths attributed to a given cause. We used GBD death estimates to calculate the observed mean age at death and to model the expected mean age across causes, sexes, years, and locations. The expected mean age reflects the expected mean age at death for individuals within a population, based on global mortality rates and the population's age structure. Comparatively, the observed mean age represents the actual mean age at death, influenced by all factors unique to a location-specific population, including its age structure. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 250-draw distribution for each metric. Findings are reported as counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2023 include a correction for the misclassification of deaths due to COVID-19, updates to the method used to estimate COVID-19, and updates to the CODEm modelling framework. This analysis used 55 761 data sources, including vital registration and verbal autopsy data as well as data from surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. For GBD 2023, there were 312 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 3 country-years of surveillance data, 51 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 144 country-years of other data types that were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. Findings: The initial years of the COVID-19 pandemic caused shifts in long-standing rankings of the leading causes of global deaths: it ranked as the number one age-standardised cause of death at Level 3 of the GBD cause classification hierarchy in 2021. By 2023, COVID-19 dropped to the 20th place among the leading global causes, returning the rankings of the leading two causes to those typical across the time series (ie, ischaemic heart disease and stroke). While ischaemic heart disease and stroke persist as leading causes of death, there has been progress in reducing their age-standardised mortality rates globally. Four other leading causes have also shown large declines in global age-standardised mortality rates across the study period: diarrhoeal diseases, tuberculosis, stomach cancer, and measles. Other causes of death showed disparate patterns between sexes, notably for deaths from conflict and terrorism in some locations. A large reduction in age-standardised rates of YLLs occurred for neonatal disorders. Despite this, neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of global YLLs over the period studied, except in 2021, when COVID-19 was temporarily the leading cause. Compared to 1990, there has been a considerable reduction in total YLLs in many vaccine-preventable diseases, most notably diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus, and measles. In addition, this study quantified the mean age at death for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality and found noticeable variation by sex and location. The global all-cause mean age at death increased from 46·8 years (95% UI 46·6-47·0) in 1990 to 63·4 years (63·1-63·7) in 2023. For males, mean age increased from 45·4 years (45·1-45·7) to 61·2 years (60·7-61·6), and for females it increased from 48·5 years (48·1-48·8) to 65·9 years (65·5-66·3), from 1990 to 2023. The highest all-cause mean age at death in 2023 was found in the high-income super-region, where the mean age for females reached 80·9 years (80·9-81·0) and for males 74·8 years (74·8-74·9). By comparison, the lowest all-cause mean age at death occurred in sub-Saharan Africa, where it was 38·0 years (37·5-38·4) for females and 35·6 years (35·2-35·9) for males in 2023. Lastly, our study found that all-cause 70q0 decreased across each GBD super-region and region from 2000 to 2023, although with large variability between them. For females, we found that 70q0 notably increased from drug use disorders and conflict and terrorism. Leading causes that increased 70q0 for males also included drug use disorders, as well as diabetes. In sub-Saharan Africa, there was an increase in 70q0 for many non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Additionally, the mean age at death from NCDs was lower than the expected mean age at death for this super-region. By comparison, there was an increase in 70q0 for drug use disorders in the high-income super-region, which also had an observed mean age at death lower than the expected value. Interpretation: We examined global mortality patterns over the past three decades, highlighting-with enhanced estimation methods-the impacts of major events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, in addition to broader trends such as increasing NCDs in low-income regions that reflect ongoing shifts in the global epidemiological transition. This study also delves into premature mortality patterns, exploring the interplay between age and causes of death and deepening our understanding of where targeted resources could be applied to further reduce preventable sources of mortality. We provide essential insights into global and regional health disparities, identifying locations in need of targeted interventions to address both communicable and non-communicable diseases. There is an ever-present need for strengthened health-care systems that are resilient to future pandemics and the shifting burden of disease, particularly among ageing populations in regions with high mortality rates. Robust estimates of causes of death are increasingly essential to inform health priorities and guide efforts toward achieving global health equity. The need for global collaboration to reduce preventable mortality is more important than ever, as shifting burdens of disease are affecting all nations, albeit at different paces and scales. Funding: Gates Foundation
Global, regional, and national trends in routine childhood vaccination coverage from 1980 to 2023 with forecasts to 2030: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023
No full textBackground: Since its inception in 1974, the Essential Programme on Immunization (EPI) has achieved remarkable success, averting the deaths of an estimated 154 million children worldwide through routine childhood vaccination. However, more recent decades have seen persistent coverage inequities and stagnating progress, which have been further amplified by the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2019, WHO set ambitious goals for improving vaccine coverage globally through the Immunization Agenda 2030 (IA2030). Now halfway through the decade, understanding past and recent coverage trends can help inform and reorient strategies for approaching these aims in the next 5 years. Methods: Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2023, this study provides updated global, regional, and national estimates of routine childhood vaccine coverage from 1980 to 2023 for 204 countries and territories for 11 vaccine-dose combinations recommended by WHO for all children globally. Employing advanced modelling techniques, this analysis accounts for data biases and heterogeneity and integrates new methodologies to model vaccine scale-up and COVID-19 pandemic-related disruptions. To contextualise historic coverage trends and gains still needed to achieve the IA2030 coverage targets, we supplement these results with several secondary analyses: (1) we assess the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on vaccine coverage; (2) we forecast coverage of select life-course vaccines up to 2030; and (3) we analyse progress needed to reduce the number of zero-dose children by half between 2023 and 2030. Findings: Overall, global coverage for the original EPI vaccines against diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis (first dose [DTP1] and third dose [DTP3]), measles (MCV1), polio (Pol3), and tuberculosis (BCG) nearly doubled from 1980 to 2023. However, this long-term trend masks recent challenges. Coverage gains slowed between 2010 and 2019 in many countries and territories, including declines in 21 of 36 high-income countries and territories for at least one of these vaccine doses (excluding BCG, which has been removed from routine immunisation schedules in some countries and territories). The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated these challenges, with global rates for these vaccines declining sharply since 2020, and still not returning to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels as of 2023. Coverage for newer vaccines developed and introduced in more recent years, such as immunisations against pneumococcal disease (PCV3) and rotavirus (complete series; RotaC) and a second dose of the measles vaccine (MCV2), saw continued increases globally during the COVID-19 pandemic due to ongoing introductions and scale-ups, but at slower rates than expected in the absence of the pandemic. Forecasts to 2030 for DTP3, PCV3, and MCV2 suggest that only DTP3 would reach the IA2030 target of 90% global coverage, and only under an optimistic scenario. The number of zero-dose children, proxied as children younger than 1 year who do not receive DTP1, decreased by 74·9% (95% uncertainty interval 72·1-77·3) globally between 1980 and 2019, with most of those declines reached during the 1980s and the 2000s. After 2019, counts of zero-dose children rose to a COVID 19-era peak of 18·6 million (17·6-20·0) in 2021. Most zero-dose children remain concentrated in conflict-affected regions and those with various constraints on resources available to put towards vaccination services, particularly sub-Saharan Africa. As of 2023, more than 50% of the 15·7 million (14·6-17·0) global zero-dose children resided in just eight countries (Nigeria, India, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, Indonesia, and Brazil), emphasising persistent inequities. Interpretation: Our estimates of current vaccine coverage and forecasts to 2030 suggest that achieving IA2030 targets, such as halving zero-dose children compared with 2019 levels and reaching 90% global coverage for life-course vaccines DTP3, PCV3, and MCV2, will require accelerated progress. Substantial increases in coverage are necessary in many countries and territories, with those in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia facing the greatest challenges. Recent declines will need to be reversed to restore previous coverage levels in Latin America and the Caribbean, especially for DTP1, DTP3, and Pol3. These findings underscore the crucial need for targeted, equitable immunisation strategies. Strengthening primary health-care systems, addressing vaccine misinformation and hesitancy, and adapting to local contexts are essential to advancing coverage. COVID-19 pandemic recovery efforts, such as WHO's Big Catch-Up, as well as efforts to bolster routine services must prioritise reaching marginalised populations and target subnational geographies to regain lost ground and achieve global immunisation goals. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance
Global burden of lower respiratory infections and aetiologies, 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023
No full textBackground: Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) remain the world’s leading infectious cause of death. This analysis
from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 provides global, regional, and
national estimates of LRI incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with attribution to
26 pathogens, including 11 newly modelled pathogens, across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023. With
new data and revised modelling techniques, these estimates serve as an update and expansion to GBD 2021. Through
these estimates, we also aimed to assess progress towards the 2025 Global Action Plan for the Prevention and
Control of Pneumonia and Diarrhoea (GAPPD) target for pneumonia mortality in children younger than 5 years.
Methods: Mortality from LRIs, defined as physician-diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis, was estimated using
the Cause of Death Ensemble model with data from vital registration, verbal autopsy, surveillance, and minimally
invasive tissue sampling. The Bayesian meta-regression tool DisMod-MR 2.1 was used to model overall morbidity
due to LRIs. DALYs were calculated as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs) for
all locations, years, age groups, and sexes. We modelled pathogen-specific case-fatality ratios (CFRs) for each age
group and location using splined binomial regression to create internally consistent estimates of incidence and
mortality proportions attributable to viral, fungal, parasitic, and bacterial pathogens. Progress was assessed
towards the GAPPD target of less than three deaths from pneumonia per 1000 livebirths, which is roughly
equivalent to a mortality rate of less than 60 deaths per 100 000 children younger than 5 years.
Findings: In 2023, LRIs were responsible for 2·50 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·24–2·81) deaths and
98·7 million (87·7–112) DALYs, with children younger than 5 years and adults aged 70 years and older carrying the
highest burden. LRI mortality in children younger than 5 years fell by 33·4% (10·4–47·4) since 2010, with a global
mortality rate of 94·8 (75·6–116·4) per 100000 person-years in 2023. Among adults aged 70 years and older, the burden
remained substantial with only marginal declines since 2010. A mortality rate of less than 60 deaths per 100000 for
children younger than 5 years was met by 129 of the 204 modelled countries in 2023. At a super-regional level, subSaharan Africa had an aggregate mortality rate in children younger than 5 years (hereafter referred to as under-5
mortality rate) furthest from the GAPPD target. Streptococcus pneumoniae continued to account for the largest number
of LRI deaths globally (634000 [95% UI 565000–721000] deaths or 25·3% [24·5–26·1] of all LRI deaths), followed by
Staphylococcus aureus (271000 [243000–298000] deaths or 10·9% [10·3–11·3]), and Klebsiella pneumoniae (228000
[204000–261000] deaths or 9·1% [8·8–9·5]). Among pathogens newly modelled in this study, non-tuberculous
mycobacteria (responsible for 177000 [95% UI 155000–201000] deaths) and Aspergillus spp (responsible for 67800
[59900–75900] deaths) emerged as important contributors. Altogether, the 11 newly modelled pathogens accounted for
approximately 22% of LRI deaths.
Interpretation: This comprehensive analysis underscores both the gains achieved through vaccination and the
challenges that remain in controlling the LRI burden globally. Furthermore, it demonstrates persistent disparities
in disease burden, with the highest mortality rates concentrated in countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Globally, as
well as in these high-burden locations, the under-5 LRI mortality rate remains well above the GAPPD target.
Progress towards this target requires equitable access to vaccines and preventive therapies—including newer
interventions such as respiratory syncytial virus monoclonal antibodies—and health systems capable of early
diagnosis and treatment. Expanding surveillance of emerging pathogens, strengthening adult immunisation
programmes, and combating vaccine hesitancy are also crucial. As the global population ages, the dual challenge
of sustaining gains in child survival while addressing the rising vulnerability in older adults will shape future
pneumonia control strategies
Global burden of lower respiratory infections and aetiologies, 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023
No full textBackground Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) remain the world’s leading infectious cause of death. This analysis
from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 provides global, regional, and
national estimates of LRI incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with attribution to
26 pathogens, including 11 newly modelled pathogens, across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023. With
new data and revised modelling techniques, these estimates serve as an update and expansion to GBD 2021. Through
these estimates, we also aimed to assess progress towards the 2025 Global Action Plan for the Prevention and
Control of Pneumonia and Diarrhoea (GAPPD) target for pneumonia mortality in children younger than 5 years.
Methods Mortality from LRIs, defined as physician-diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis, was estimated using
the Cause of Death Ensemble model with data from vital registration, verbal autopsy, surveillance, and minimally
invasive tissue sampling. The Bayesian meta-regression tool DisMod-MR 2.1 was used to model overall morbidity
due to LRIs. DALYs were calculated as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs) for
all locations, years, age groups, and sexes. We modelled pathogen-specific case-fatality ratios (CFRs) for each age
group and location using splined binomial regression to create internally consistent estimates of incidence and
mortality proportions attributable to viral, fungal, parasitic, and bacterial pathogens. Progress was assessed
towards the GAPPD target of less than three deaths from pneumonia per 1000 livebirths, which is roughly
equivalent to a mortality rate of less than 60 deaths per 100 000 children younger than 5 years.
Findings In 2023, LRIs were responsible for 2·50 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·24–2·81) deaths and
98·7 million (87·7–112) DALYs, with children younger than 5 years and adults aged 70 years and older carrying the
highest burden. LRI mortality in children younger than 5 years fell by 33·4% (10·4–47·4) since 2010, with a global
mortality rate of 94·8 (75·6–116·4) per 100000 person-years in 2023. Among adults aged 70 years and older, the burden
remained substantial with only marginal declines since 2010. A mortality rate of less than 60 deaths per 100000 for
children younger than 5 years was met by 129 of the 204 modelled countries in 2023. At a super-regional level, subSaharan Africa had an aggregate mortality rate in children younger than 5 years (hereafter referred to as under-5
mortality rate) furthest from the GAPPD target. Streptococcus pneumoniae continued to account for the largest number
of LRI deaths globally (634000 [95% UI 565000–721000] deaths or 25·3% [24·5–26·1] of all LRI deaths), followed by
Staphylococcus aureus (271000 [243000–298000] deaths or 10·9% [10·3–11·3]), and Klebsiella pneumoniae (228000
[204000–261000] deaths or 9·1% [8·8–9·5]). Among pathogens newly modelled in this study, non-tuberculous
mycobacteria (responsible for 177000 [95% UI 155000–201000] deaths) and Aspergillus spp (responsible for 67800
[59900–75900] deaths) emerged as important contributors. Altogether, the 11 newly modelled pathogens accounted for
approximately 22% of LRI deaths.
Interpretation This comprehensive analysis underscores both the gains achieved through vaccination and the
challenges that remain in controlling the LRI burden globally. Furthermore, it demonstrates persistent disparities
in disease burden, with the highest mortality rates concentrated in countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Globally, as
well as in these high-burden locations, the under-5 LRI mortality rate remains well above the GAPPD target.
Progress towards this target requires equitable access to vaccines and preventive therapies—including newer
interventions such as respiratory syncytial virus monoclonal antibodies—and health systems capable of early
diagnosis and treatment. Expanding surveillance of emerging pathogens, strengthening adult immunisation
programmes, and combating vaccine hesitancy are also crucial. As the global population ages, the dual challenge
of sustaining gains in child survival while addressing the rising vulnerability in older adults will shape future
pneumonia control strategies
Intravenous or nebulised magnesium sulphate versus standard therapy for severe acute asthma (3Mg trial): a double-blind, randomised controlled trial
No full textBACKGROUND: Neuraminidase inhibitors were widely used during the 2009-10 influenza A H1N1 pandemic, but evidence for their effectiveness in reducing mortality is uncertain. We did a meta-analysis of individual participant data to investigate the association between use of neuraminidase inhibitors and mortality in patients admitted to hospital with pandemic influenza A H1N1pdm09 virus infection. METHODS: We assembled data for patients (all ages) admitted to hospital worldwide with laboratory confirmed or clinically diagnosed pandemic influenza A H1N1pdm09 virus infection. We identified potential data contributors from an earlier systematic review of reported studies addressing the same research question. In our systematic review, eligible studies were done between March 1, 2009 (Mexico), or April 1, 2009 (rest of the world), until the WHO declaration of the end of the pandemic (Aug 10, 2010); however, we continued to receive data up to March 14, 2011, from ongoing studies. We did a meta-analysis of individual participant data to assess the association between neuraminidase inhibitor treatment and mortality (primary outcome), adjusting for both treatment propensity and potential confounders, using generalised linear mixed modelling. We assessed the association with time to treatment using time-dependent Cox regression shared frailty modelling. FINDINGS: We included data for 29,234 patients from 78 studies of patients admitted to hospital between Jan 2, 2009, and March 14, 2011. Compared with no treatment, neuraminidase inhibitor treatment (irrespective of timing) was associated with a reduction in mortality risk (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0·81; 95% CI 0·70-0·93; p=0·0024). Compared with later treatment, early treatment (within 2 days of symptom onset) was associated with a reduction in mortality risk (adjusted OR 0·48; 95% CI 0·41-0·56; p<0·0001). Early treatment versus no treatment was also associated with a reduction in mortality (adjusted OR 0·50; 95% CI 0·37-0·67; p<0·0001). These associations with reduced mortality risk were less pronounced and not significant in children. There was an increase in the mortality hazard rate with each day's delay in initiation of treatment up to day 5 as compared with treatment initiated within 2 days of symptom onset (adjusted hazard ratio [HR 1·23] [95% CI 1·18-1·28]; p<0·0001 for the increasing HR with each day's delay). INTERPRETATION: We advocate early instigation of neuraminidase inhibitor treatment in adults admitted to hospital with suspected or proven influenza infection. FUNDING: F Hoffmann-La Roche
Global burden of 292 causes of death in 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational locations, 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023
No full textGlobal burden of 292 causes of death in 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational locations, 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 202
