1,721,047 research outputs found
The subjectivist interpretation of probability and the problem of individualisation in forensic science
No full textThis paper presents and discusses further aspects of the subjectivist interpretation of probability (also known as the ‘personalist’ view of probabilities) as initiated in earlier forensic and legal literature. It shows that operational devices to elicit subjective probabilities – in particular the so-called scoring rules – provide additional arguments in support of the standpoint according to which categorical claims of forensic individualisation do not follow from a formal analysis under that view of probability theory
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Full text linkThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Full text link“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Full text linkWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Decision-theoretic analysis of forensic sampling criteria using Bayesian decision networks
No full textDecision analysis for the genotype designation in low-template-DNA profiles
No full textWhat genotype should the scientist specify for conducting a database search to try to find the source of a low-template-DNA (lt-DNA) trace? When the scientist answers this question, he or she makes a decision. Here, we approach this decision problem from a normative point of view by defining a decision-theoretic framework for answering this question for one locus. This framework combines the probability distribution describing the uncertainty over the trace’s donor’s possible genotypes with a loss function describing the scientist’s preferences concerning false exclusions and false inclusions that may result from the database search. According to this approach, the scientist should choose the genotype designation that minimizes the expected loss. To illustrate the results produced by this approach, we apply it to two hypothetical cases: (1) the case of observing one peak for allele xi on a single electropherogram, and (2) the case of observing one peak for allele xi on one replicate, and a pair of peaks for alleles xi and xj, i 61⁄4 j, on a second replicate. Given that the probabilities of allele drop-out are defined as functions of the observed peak heights, the threshold values marking the turning points when the scientist should switch from one designation to another are derived in terms of the observed peak heights. For each case, sensitivity analyses show the impact of the model’s parameters on these threshold values. The results support the conclusion that the procedure should not focus on a single threshold value for making this decision for all alleles, all loci and in all laboratories
A General Approach to Bayesian Networks for the Interpretation of Evidence
No full textBayesian networks are mathematically and statistically rigorous techniques for handling uncertainty. The field of forensic science has recently attributed increased attention to the many advantages of this graphical method for assisting the evaluation of scientific evidence. However, the majority of contributions that relate to this topic restrict themselves to the presentation of already “constructed” BNs, and often, only a few explanations are given as to how one obtain a specific BN structure for a given problem. Based on several examples, the present paper will therefore attempt to explain in more detail some guiding considerations that might be helpful for the elicitation of appropriate structures for BNs
Data analysis in forensic science: A Bayesian decision perspective
No full textThe use of formal statistical methods to analyse quantitative data in forensic science has increased considerably over the last few years. Students, researchers and practitioners in forensic science regularly ask questions concerning the relative merits of different approaches, in particular the frequentist and Bayesian approaches, to statistical inference in the forensic context. The ideas of the Bayesian approach in forensic science are now being extended to include decision theory and the associated concept of utility. The book sets forth procedures for data analysis that rely on the decision-theoretic approach to inference. Emphasis is made on foundational philosophical tenets as well as the implications of the decision-theoretic approach in practice, and a range of statistical decision-theoretic methods that are useful in the analysis of forensic scientific data is discussed. Forensic scientific examples include point estimation, the comparison of means and proportions in populations, the chioce of sample size and the classification of items of evidence of unknown origin into predefined populations. Graphical models (e. g. Bayesian networks) are used to illustrate selected applications of Bayesian methodology
Bayesian Networks and Probabilistic Inference in Forensic Science
No full textThe amount of information forensic scientists are able to offer is ever increasing, owing to vast developments in science and technology. Consequently, the complexity of evidence does not allow scientists to cope adequately with the problems it causes, or to make the required inferences. Probability theory, implemented through graphical methods, specifically Bayesian networks, offers a powerful tool to deal with this complexity, and discover valid patterns in data. The book provides a unique and comprehensive introduction to the use of Bayesian networks for the evaluation of scientific evidence in forensic science. It includes self-contained introduction to both Bayesian networks and probability; features implementation of the methodology using HUGIN, the leading Bayesian networks software, presents basic standard networks that can be implemented in available software packages, and that form the core models necessary for the reader’s own analysis of real cases; provides a technique for structuring problems and organizing uncertain data based on methods and principles of scientific reasoning; contains a method for constructing coherent and defensible arguments for the analysis and evaluation of forensic evidence
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