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Financing innovation: The role of patent examination
No full textHow does patent examination influence access to finance for innovative firms? We exploit a reform to the UK's patent system that introduced substantive examination to the patent application process, improving the information available to potential investors on the value of firms' patents. Using a newly compiled firm-level dataset of exchange-listed corporations, we find that firms holding examined patents were able to borrow more, reflecting improved access to capital markets, and leading to firm growth. Our results highlight the role of patent examination in reducing information asymmetries, enhancing the signalling value of patents, and mitigating financial barriers to innovation
Der Europäische Binnenmarkt: ein neuer Anlauf
No full textDer Europäische Binnenmarkt ist inzwischen schon mehr als 30 Jahre alt. Er hat den freien Verkehr von Personen, Waren, Dienstleistungen und Kapital innerhalb der Europäischen Union (EU) zum Ziel. Es gibt jedoch immer noch Hindernisse für diese vier Freiheiten. Die Europäische Kommission will mit einer neuen Strategie dagegen vorgehen
Differentiable, filter free Bayesian estimation of DSGE models using mixture density networks
No full textI develop a methodology for Bayesian estimation of globally solved, non-linear macroeconomic models. A novel feature of my method is the use of a mixture density network to approximate the distribution of initial states. I use the methodology to estimate a medium-scale, two-agent New Keynesian model with irreversible investment and a zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. Using simulated data, I show that the method is able to recover the "true" parameters when using the mixture density network approximation of the initial state distribution. This contrasts with the case when the initial states are set to their steady-state values
Effect of the African Growth and Opportunity Act on the Structure of Public Revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa
No full textThe present analysis investigates the effect of the eligibility to the African Growth and Opportunity (AGOA) programme, and of the suspension of the benefits associated with this programme on the total public revenue and its structure in beneficiary (or suspended) Sub-Saharan African countries. The analysis has shown that the eligibility to the AGOA programme has yet contributed to the increase in total public revenue, but this reflects essentially an increase in resource-based revenue. The analysis has also revealed that export product diversification and an increase in the share of manufactured exports in total merchandise exports mediate the effect of the AGOA programme on public revenue indicators in beneficiary countries. In particular, countries that diversify their export product baskets, and those that improve their manufactured export performance tend to enjoy a higher non-resource based public revenues. Finally, the suspension of the benefits from the AGOA programme leads to a decrease in total public revenue, including resource revenue and, both tax revenue (notably resource tax revenue) and nontax revenue (both the resource and non-resource components of the latter). The analysis, therefore, shows that non-reciprocal trade preferences (here, the AGOA programme) can enhance non-resource-based public revenue in beneficiary countries that endeavour to foster their manufactured exports and diversify their export products. In the meantime, the suspension of the AGOA programme leads to a significant fall in public revenue in the suspended countries, especially for resource-rich countries. The implications of these findings are discussed
Hessenmonitor Finanzkompetenz: Was wissen junge Erwachsene in Hessen über Geld und Finanzen? Abschlussbericht
No full textDer Stand der finanziellen Bildung in Deutschland zeigt ein ambivalentes Bild: Obwohl das Land in internationalen Studien zum Finanzwissen regelmäßig Spitzenplätze belegt, bestehen nach wie vor deutliche Defizite - vor allem bei sozio-demografisch benachteiligten Gruppen. Die vorliegende Studie stützt sich auf eine Umfrage unter jungen Erwachsenen (18-35 Jahre) in Hessen. Sie zeigt, dass aus ihrer Perspektive finanzielle Themen eine hohe Relevanz haben und ein großes Interesse an Finanzbildung besteht. Gleichzeitig weist die Studie auf zentrale Herausforderungen hin, darunter der Umgang mit finanziellem Stress. Mehr als die Hälfte der Befragten gibt an, offen über Geld zu sprechen und häufig Online-Quellen zu nutzen. Dabei stoßen sie jedoch auf eine Vielzahl unterschiedlicher, teils widersprüchlicher Informationen. Ihr Vertrauen richtet sich vor allem an das soziale Umfeld, das jedoch oft selbst nur eingeschränktes finanzielles Wissen besitzt. Für zukünftige Maßnahmen zur Steigerung der Finanzkompetenz in Hessen ist ein Ansatz erforderlich, der gezielt "teachable moments" nutzt, die Bedürfnisse der Zielgruppen berücksichtigt und den Übergang ins Erwachsenenleben mit grundlegender finanzieller Bildung begleitet. Dies ist umso dringlicher, da bislang 73% dieser Altersgruppe nach eigenen Angaben keine Form finanzieller Schulung erhalten haben. Nachhaltig gestaltete Bildungsmaßnahmen können nicht nur individuelle finanzielle Sicherheit stärken, sondern auch langfristig zur gesellschaftlichen Resilienz beitragen
From waves to rates: Enhancing inflation forecasts through combinations of frequency-domain models
No full textThis paper addresses the challenge of inflation forecasting by adopting a thick modeling approach that integrates forecasts from time- and frequency-domain models. Frequency-domain models excel at capturing long-term trends while also accounting for short-term fluctuations. Combining these models with traditional approaches leverages their complementary strengths, resulting in forecasts that consistently outperform individual methods, especially during periods of heightened inflation volatility. By pooling insights from diverse modeling frameworks, this study provides a robust and effective strategy for improving inflation forecasts across different horizons
Global, regional, and national burden and quality of care index of endocarditis: the global burden of disease study 1990–2019
No full textEndocarditis accounts for significant morbidity and mortality. Timely diagnosis and prompt treatment are of paramount importance for optimal patient outcome. However, only few studies have assessed quality of care (QoC) in endocarditis. We aimed to describe QoC and changes in epidemiological features of endocarditis from 1990 to 2019. Using primary indices of mortality, incidence, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life year, obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, we calculated four secondary measures. Principal component analysis was performed to calculate QoC index (QCI), scored on a scale of 0–100 with higher values indicating better QoC, for different locations, age groups, and genders from 1990 to 2019. The all-ages incidence rate of endocarditis was estimated to increase significantly from 1990 to 2019, while mortality rate did not change. The age-standardized QCI was 73.6% globally, with higher values in high-income countries than in low-income countries. High-income North America (82.0%) and Asia Pacific (81.1%) had the highest QCI, whereas Eastern Europe (43.3%) had the lowest. Globally, the 30–49 and 95+ age groups had the highest (91.3%) and the lowest (71.7%) QCI, respectively. In most countries, particularly those with lower socio-demographic index, women had better QCI. This is the first global assessment of QCI, shedding light on the current trends and highlighting the necessity of improving the endocarditis QoC, mainly by timely case detection, adherence to antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines, utilizing targeted antibiotics and advanced treatments, in the African region and resolving gender inequality in selected countries
From Money Growth to Consumer Spending: Forecasting with Divisia Monetary Aggregates
No full textThis paper examines how money growth affects personal consumption using Divisia monetary aggregates. Using monthly U.S. data from 2000 to 2023, we find that changes in Divisia M4 significantly predict personal consumption expenditure, with a lag of three months. A 1% increase in Divisia M4 is associated with a 0.3% increase in consumption, controlling for macroeconomic factors. Through five-fold cross-validation, we demonstrate that Divisia-based forecasting models reduce prediction errors by 20% compared to models using the federal funds rate. Our findings suggest that broader monetary aggregates contain important predictive information for consumption dynamics, particularly when interest rates are low
Droughts and domestic violence: Measuring the gender-climate nexus
No full textEvery year, 245 million women are victims of intimate partner violence (IPV). Climate change is hypothesized to exacerbate this figure through its disruptive impact on household livelihoods, among other channels. However, little causal evidence exists on this aspect of the climate-gender nexus, partly due to measurement challenges that have contributed to gaps in the literature. In this paper, we use three different IPV data sources to examine the effect of drought in Mexico and the role of agricultural vulnerability in intensifying these effects. We find robust evidence of increases in all measures of IPV in response to local precipitation deficits: as unanticipated exposure to days without rain in the previous month rises, more injuries linked to IPV are recorded in the public health system, police reports increase, and more 911 calls related to IPV are made. The effects are stronger in regions highly dependent on agriculture, particularly when the shock occurs during the growing season. In a country where most agricultural income and land are controlled by men, our results align with theoretical predictions from male-backlash IPV models and extractive violence models. We also find that the impact of drought on IPV is more pronounced in municipalities with low state capacity, though potential differences in reporting behavior between IPV measures complicate comparisons. Our findings underscore the need to design gender-sensitive disaster relief policies, strengthen trust in reporting mechanisms and helplines, and reduce the social acceptability of IPV
Análise das linhas de crédito do plano ABC+ para agricultura familiar
No full textThe work sought to analyze the performance of the credit lines, present in the ABC+ Plan for family farming, checking how this insertion of family farming in the ABC+ Plan is going, specifically, how the credit lines, contained in the ABC+ Plan, are operating, aimed at family farmers. To this end, a literature review was carried out on the subject and, based on data from the rural credit manual (MCR), it was verified how the credit lines intended for family farmers, included in the ABC+ plan, are behaving: Pronaf ABC+ Bioeconomy, Pronaf ABC+ Agroecology, Pronaf ABC+ Forests and Pronaf ABC+ Semiarid. The results found indicate that the participation of these credit lines is small in relation to the total Pronaf. Credit, although important, has not been sufficient to promote low-carbon family farming. That is, credit from the Pronaf ABC+ subprograms, intended for the adoption of sustainable practices by family farming, are not being demanded, the number of contracts and the volume of credit are small, when compared to the volume and number of Pronaf contracts