EconStor (ZBW Kiel)
Not a member yet
310344 research outputs found
Sort by
Quem faz análise de impacto regulatório no Brasil? Uma avaliação da experiência federal
No full textIt is a long established fact that a reader will be distracted by the readable content of a page when looking at its layout. The point of using Lorem Ipsum is that it has a more-or-less normal distribution of letters, as opposed to using "Content here, content here", making it look like readable English. Many desktop publishing packages and web page editors now use Lorem Ipsum as their default model text, and a search for "lorem ipsum" will uncover many web sites still in their infancy. Various versions have evolved over the years, sometimes by accident, sometimes on purpose (injected humour and the like)
Kein Richtiges Leben im Falschen? Die Grenzen der Verkehrswende unter herrschenden Bedingungen
No full textModerne Gesellschaften sind bewegungsintensiv, die wirtschaftlichen Verteilungsspielräume werden durch eine systematische Absenkung des Widerstandes des Raumes realisiert. Im Mittelpunkt steht dabei die Verkehrsinfrastruktur für den Personen- und Güterverkehr. Während in den Sektoren Industrie, Landwirtschaft und private Haushalte eine Reduktion der Treibhausgase auch unter den herrschenden Bedingungen durch den Einsatz von technischen Innovationen möglich wurde, ist dies beim Verkehr – abgesehen von den Effekten der Corona-Pandemie – bislang nicht gelungen. Die Sozialwissenschaften haben verpasst, die Bedeutung des Autos für die Gesellschaftsbildung und ihre ökonomische und soziale Stabilisierung ausreichend deutlich zu machen und stehen deshalb jetzt unter Zugzwang, normative Ansätze in der Klimapolitik ins Machbare zu übersetzen und die Frage zu beantworten, was innerhalb der bestehenden Grundordnung an Veränderungen basaler Funktionselemente überhaupt möglich ist. Bislang sind die Versuche einer „Verkehrswende“ noch nicht wirklich gelungen. Die entscheidenden Fragen, wo und unter welchen Umständen sich Reformen überhaupt realisieren lassen und welche Rolle dabei auch die Sozialwissenschaften selbst spielen, sind erst noch zu beantworten
How anti-racist protests influence pro- and anti-migration voting behavior: Evidence from national and European elections
No full textRacist attacks and incidents frequently spark anti-racist protest campaigns. This research examines the effect of such mobilization on voting behavior in subsequent national and European elections. We focus on two periods of anti-racist demonstra-tions in Germany that followed 1) the killing of nine people in the 2020 Hanau racist terrorist attack and 2) the uncovering of a racist mass deportation plan by far-right actors, including some Alternative for Germany (AfD) politicians in 2024. The study hypothesizes that local antiracist protests lead to less anti-migration, i.e., far-right AfD voting, and more promigration, i.e., Green voting. Empirically, we connect protest data with aggregate voting data from German state offices. Using difference-in-differences (DID) and entropy balancing, we show that local anti-racist protests can indeed influence voting behavior toward a more inclusive society. We find the hypothesized effect in the 2021 federal elections for both parties. However, in the European elections, we only find negative effects on AfD vote share. The Green Party only benefited from anti-racist protests in 2021, when they held a clear pro-migration stance and were part of the opposition
Soft landing and inflation scares
No full textWe discuss the timing and strength of the Fed's reaction to the recent inflation surge within an estimated macroeconomic model where long-run inflation expectations are heterogeneous and can lose their anchoring to the target. The resulting inflation scare worsens the real cost of disinflation. We derive a closed-form solution that retains the entire time-varying cross-sectional distribution of subjective inflation beliefs. We estimate the model using Bayesian techniques on both US macroeconomic time series and forecast data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Counterfactual simulations show that the timing - rather than the strength - of the policy reaction to the inflation surge is critical to contain the development of an inflation scare and prevent the entrenchment of above-target inflation. We show that the Fed fell behind the curve in 2021 since an earlier tightening could have reduced the inflation peak without triggering a recession. However, further delays would have unanchored inflation expectations, aggravated the inflation scare and strengthened the inflation surge, resulting in larger output losses
Optimal investment in an energy storage system
No full textRenewable energy production plays a crucial role in the energy transition. However, many renewable energy sources (RES) are intermittent, and there is often a mismatch between energy production and consumption, which can be partially solved by storage. In this paper, we investigate the investment decision in a photovoltaic (PV) power plant coupled with a Battery Energy Storage System (BESS), namely an Energy Storage System (ESS). We aim to investigate the relationship between the net present value (NPV) of the investment and the technical implications related to the maximum amount of energy to be stored while also accounting for the impact of energy prices. In our setting, the BESS is connected to the national power grid and the PV plant. Energy can be produced, purchased from the grid, stored, self-consumed, and fed into the grid. PV production and energy consumption loads evolve stochastically over time. In addition, as BESS are costly, energy stored has an opportunity cost, which depends on the prices of energy purchased from the grid and energy fed in and sold to the grid, respectively. However, BESS can significantly contribute to increase ESS managerial flexibility and, in turn, ESS value. In detail, we investigate the optimal BESS size that minimizes ESS net operating costs. We also provide insights on ESS optimal management strategy. Our results show that ESS net operating costs are relatively small. They reduce for increasing selling prices of energy, whereas they increase for increasing volatility of the stock of energy stored in the battery
Macroeconomic impact of tax changes: The case of Greece from 1974 to 2018
No full textWe adopted an empirical approach to capture the macroeconomic impact of tax changes for the examined period from 1974 to 2018. It is generally accepted that vector autoregression model (VAR) has proven useful for describing the dynamic interrelationships of multivariate series. Our empirical analysis focus on VAR models and Vector Error Correction Models to capture long term relationships Firstly, we apply a VAR (1,1) estimation that shows that the tax rate negatively affects GDP growth in the short run. The regression shows that a one percent increase in the tax rate lowers the level of GDP growth by 0,86%. The effects of a permanent change are given by the cumulative impulse response function which suggest 0,0025 decline of future GDP growth to one-unit upward shift in total tax rates. In addition, we estimate vector autoregressive model 2, VAR (1,1), and examine the short run relationship among real GDP growth, personal income taxes, tax on goods and services, property taxes, debt, general government consumption expenditure, gross fixed capital formation and household consumption. The analysis of the coefficients suggests that income taxes were the most important factor in debt servicing, which had a negative impact on growth, and taxes on goods and services (transaction taxes) served mainly to address difficulties in government spending. Increased government spending and household consumption have a negative effect on growth and investment, while property taxes are positively correlated with investment in fixed assets. Government spending is negatively correlated with gross fixed capital formation. Moreover, we estimate vector autoregressive model 3, as VAR (1,1) and examine the short run relationship among real GDP growth, debt, general government consumption expenditure and tax rates. Our estimation result suggests that debt, government spending and the level of taxation are negatively correlated with GDP growth while lagged GDP growth is positively correlated with GDP growth of current period. In this context, we conclude that policymakers should pursue a strategy that promotes the rationalization of government spending and the sustainability of debt, keeping the revenue capacity at a level that does not harm long-term growth
Rule of law in Mozambique
No full textThis paper examines the state and evolution of the rule of law in Mozambique, focusing on key dimensions such as voice and political participation, judicial independence and accessibility, corruption, access to basic services, personal security, and property rights. Drawing on Afrobarometer surveys, voting data, and conflict records, the paper offer insights into the perceptions and experiences of Mozambican citizens. The findings indicate a deterioration in institutional trust over the past two decades, alongside declining voter turnout in general elections and increasing election-related and political violence. Despite reforms aimed at improving judicial autonomy and accessibility, the legal system remains affected by inefficiencies and regional disparities. Citizens are often subject to bribery when accessing essential public services, and perception of corruption in key institutions remains high. Concerns about fairness and integrity in the land registration process can also weaken confidence in land security and property rights protection. The paper highlights the continued challenges Mozambique faces in consolidating the rule of law, exacerbated by legacies of conflict, political instability, and uneven socioeconomic development
From burden to balance: The role of age and education level in the distribution of refugees in Europe
No full textMigration poses both an opportunity and a challenge for the EU, as it offers a solution to labor shortages and demographic imbalances, but also creates social and economic pressure. A fairer distribution of refugees among EU member states, considering age and education level, can optimize labor markets, promote social cohesion, and reduce populist sentiment. Current models for refugee distribution often fail to align with host countries' needs, and incorporating nuanced indicators like age, education level, and social resistance can improve fairness and efficiency. Tailored policies that address integration barriers, such as skill recognition and language training, can maximize refugees' contributions to host economies and counter negative public perceptions. While giving preference to younger and educated refugees can improve integration outcomes, this approach must be reconciled with humanitarian principles to uphold ethical standards in refugee policy
Quantile VARs and macroeconomic risk forecasting
No full textRecent rises in macroeconomic volatility have prompted the introduction of quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) models to forecast macroeconomic risk. This paper provides an extensive evaluation of the predictive performance of QVAR models in a pseudo-out-of-sample experiment spanning 112 monthly US variables over 40 years, with horizons of 1 to 12 months. We compare QVAR with three parametric benchmarks: a Gaussian VAR, a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity VAR and a VAR with stochastic volatility. QVAR frequently, significantly and quantitatively improves upon the benchmarks and almost never performs significantly worse. Forecasting improvements are concentrated in the labour market and interest and exchange rates. Augmenting the QVAR model with factors estimated by principal components or quantile factors significantly enhances macroeconomic risk forecasting in some cases, mostly in the labour market. Generally, QVAR and the augmented models perform equally well. We conclude that both are adequate tools for modeling macroeconomic risks
The enemy of my enemy
No full textThis paper studies how competition between groups affects cooperation. In the control condition, pairs of subjects play an indefinitely repeated Prisoner's Dilemma game without external competition. In the treatment, two pairs compete against each other. No monetary rewards are tied to winning, isolating the bare impact of competition. In the treatment, cooperation increases by 16 percentage points. Strategies estimation shows a shift from selfish strategies (Always Defect) to cooperative ones (Grim Trigger). A theoretical model provides a rationale for the experimental results