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A simulation based approach for reliability evaluation and optimization of time-dependent systems:a case study of production systems (Barin Plast Company)
No full textTezin basılısı, İstanbul Şehir Üniversitesi Kütüphanesi'ndedir.Reliability is an important factor to assure the productivity, and e ciency of a system in many industrial establishments. One should look for a higher level of reliability, for his company, to increase the properly working time of the system by reducing the chance of failure occurrence in the system and so on increasing availability of the system which means more e ciency and pro t.
The purpose of this study is to evaluate and improve the reliability level of Barin Plast Company (which is allocated in Iran, Tehran) based on available methods of reliability assessment and optimization. The product of this company is edge bandings which are mostly used in wood industries.
Generally, there are two approaches to evaluate the reliability in di erent systems which are analytical and simulation methods. In this study, problem restrictions don't let us to implement the assumptions of analytical approaches, therefore there would be a big di erence between the results of this method and real conditions of company. So, Monte Carlo simulation has been chosen to evaluate the reliability level of this company. The simulation model has been prepared by Arena software that is a strong tool in this area.
After assessing the system's reliability, the main goal is to improve the reliability of company by adding redundant components to the system or replacing current machinery with better ones. There are some methods for redundancy allocation and nding the optimal solution for system's reliability. In this study a heuristic model has been prepared, for reliability evaluation of the system with redundant components, and the results are compared by solving the optimization problem.
The required data to prepare the machinery failure probability distributions are provided by company in which they show the failure scenario of machinery for a period of 5 years. The desired conditions of company's reliability is 85 percent for period of 30 days.Declaration of Authorship ii
Abstract iii
Öz iv
Acknowledgments vi
List of Figures ix
List of Tables x
1 Motivation and Introduction 1
1.1 Motivation and hypothesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.2 Introduction to reliability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.3 Important De nitions in Reliability Engineering . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1.3.1 System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1.3.2 Reliability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1.3.3 Availability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
1.3.4 Maintainability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
1.4 Reliability Evaluation Approaches and Techniques . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
1.4.1 Reliability evaluation approaches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
1.4.2 Reliability evaluation techniques . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
1.5 Introducing the company- Barin Plast Company . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
2 Literature Review 15 2.1 Literature Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
3 Methodology 31
3.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
3.2 Monte Carlo Simulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
3.3 Goodness of t . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
3.4 Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
4 Reliability Evaluation 35
4.1 Construction of the eld statistical data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
4.2 Goodness of t results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
4.3 Model Preparation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
4.4 Arena Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
4.4.1 The logic of Arena model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
4.5 Reliability evaluation results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
4.6 Model Veri cation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
5 Reliability Optimization 49 5.1 Reliability Improvement Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
5.1.1 Redundancy allocation and nding the optimal reliability values by using a heuristic model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 5.1.2 Optimal reliability level for active redundancies by solving the optimization problem (hot standby) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
5.2 Cold standby redundancy problem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
5.3 Testing the primary data with secondary data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
6 Conclusion 65
A MATLAB Code 67
B Raw data sheets 70
Bibliography 7
Rumor in social media:role of affect during social movements
No full textTezin basılısı İstanbul Şehir Üniversitesi Kütüphanesi'ndedir.This thesis is a study on the role of rumor in the era of social media. Events that have an effect on a high amount of people’s everyday lives always find a place in social media. However, the information that is spread in social media during such events is not always verified or confirmed by news reports. Rumors find a fertile ground in social media during such events. Gezi Resistance was that kind of an event where rumors had an important role in the social media.
Claiming that rumor is essentially a negative phenomenon is easy, however it is important to look further into the mechanisms that create and spread rumors. Galloway’s concept of protocological control describes how distributed networks such as social media are governed and how an opportunity of resistance to the protocols can rise within the protocological field. This thesis shows how rumors can be effective agents to resist protocological control without defying their rules and how they can change the outcome of events through their dissemination within social media.ABSTRACT ..................................................................................... iv
ÖZ ................................................................................................. v
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .................................................................... vi
TABLE OF CONTENTS…………………………………………………………………………………vii
LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................. ix
LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................ x
CHAPTERS 1. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................... 1
1.1. Power’s Response to Social Media: Cause for Trouble? ................ 7
1.2. Information or Rumor? Rethinking Resistance and Social Media . 10
2. GALLOWAY’S CONCEPT OF PROTOCOL ......................................... 14
2.1. Types of Networks ................................................................ 14
2.1.1. Centralized Networks ...................................................... 14
2.1.2. Decentralized Networks ................................................... 15
2.1.3. Distributed Networks ....................................................... 15
2.2. What is a Protocol? ............................................................... 17
2.2.1. Application Layer ............................................................ 20
2.2.2. Transport Layer .............................................................. 20
2.2.3. Internet Layer ................................................................ 20
2.2.4. Link Layer ...................................................................... 20
2.3. Control Mechanisms of Protocols ............................................ 21
2.4. Resistance under Protocological Control .................................. 23
3. RUMOR THEORY ........................................................................ 28
3.1. Predominant Work on Rumor ................................................. 29
3.2. Critical Work on Rumor ......................................................... 37
3.3. Rumor on Social Media .......................................................... 41
4. RUMOR AND SOCIAL MEDIA ........................................................ 43
4.1. Virality, Spreadablity, and Rumor ........................................... 47
4.2. How Rumors Spread Through Social Media .............................. 50
4.2.1. Crediting the content to a known person, organization ........ 51
4.2.2. Using a content out of its intended context ........................ 54
4.2.3. Manipulating content ....................................................... 56
4.3. Rumor under Protocological Control ........................................ 57
4.4. More than (Dis)Information ................................................... 61
4.5. Affect in Social Media ............................................................ 66
5. CONCLUSION ............................................................................ 69
REFERENCES ................................................................................ 7
A simmelian analysis of social forms and individuality in Lütfi Ö. Akad’s films:Gelin/The Bird (1973), Düğün/The Wedding (1974), Diyet/Blood Money (1975)
No full textTezin basılısı İstanbul Şehir Üniversitesi Kütüphanesi'ndedir.This thesis aims to analyze the narrative aspects of The Bride (1973), The Wedding (1974), and Blood Money (1975) through Georg Simmel’s phenomenological approach, which necessitates delineating the dual role of the individual in the process of sociation by problematizing the functions of such social forms as exchange, conflict, domination, subordination, and sociability in conjunction with the protagonist’s existential subjectivity.ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................ iv
ÖZ ................................................................................................................................ v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ........................................................................................ vi
TABLE OF CONTENTS ........................................................................................... vii
LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................. viii
CHAPTERS 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................... 1
1.1. Lütfi Ö. Akad: Symptomatic Social-Realist Films .......................................... 4
1.2. Georg Simmel: On Individuality and Social Forms .......................................... 8
1.3. Methodology: Reading Together Lütfi Ö. Akad and Georg Simmel .............. 10
2. THE PHILOSOPHY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES ..................................................... 12
2.1. How is History Possible? ................................................................................ 12
2.2. How Is Society Possible? ................................................................................ 13
2.3. The Problem of Sociology ............................................................................... 19
2.4. Form in Culture and Personality ..................................................................... 24
2.5. The Categories of Human Experience ............................................................. 28
3. FORMS OF SOCIAL INTERACTION ................................................................. 32
3.1. Exchange ......................................................................................................... 32
3.2. Conflict ............................................................................................................ 36
3.3. Domination and Subordination ....................................................................... 41
3.4. Sociability ........................................................................................................ 46
4. FILM ANALYSIS ................................................................................................. 49
4.1. Gelin / The Bride (1973) ................................................................................. 49
4.2. Düğün / The Wedding (1974) ......................................................................... 60
4.3. Diyet / Blood Money (1975) ........................................................................... 69
5. CONCLUSION ...................................................................................................... 78
5.1. Tragedy of Culture .......................................................................................... 78
BIBLIOGRAPHY ...................................................................................................... 84
APPENDIX ................................................................................................................ 8
Vefeyât:müverrihler semâsının gurûb eden güneşi:“şeyhü’l-müverrihîn” Halil İnalcık (1916-2016)
No full textMakale, yazarın izniyle açık erişim kullanıma açılmıştır.Tarih bilimi; içeriği, geniş bir alana yayılmış olan materyalleri ve diğer bilim dalları ile yoğun ilişkisi nedeniyle, genellikle ideolojik bakış açılarının da devreye girmesiyle çoğu zaman tartışmaya açık kalan, geçmişi doğru olarak tespit ve inşâ etmeye yönelik en zor ve karmaşık bilim dallarından biridir. Buna göre târihçi de; geçmişteki olayları yalnız bilimsel materyaller ışığında aydınlatmaya, çözümlemeye ve tarihî gerçekleri herhangi bir çarpıtmaya neden olmaksızın ve meydan vermeksizin, objektif bir bakış açısıyla tespit etmeye kendisini adamış olan kimsedir. Tarihin temel dinamiklerine bağlı kalarak, bilimsel materyalleri doğru ve isâbetli bir şekilde sentezleyip tarihin çözümlenememiş karanlık ve problemli meselelerini aydınlatmak; büyük bir emek ve azim, yoğun bir mesâî ve fedakârlık gerektirmektedir. Bir tarih araştırmacısı bunları ne kadar doğru ve objektif bir şekilde yerine getirebilmişse, görevini o nisbette hakkıyla ifâ edebilmiş demektir
TCP SYN seli saldırısının etkilerini azaltmak için yeni SYN çerezleri gerçeklemesi
No full textTezin basılısı İstanbul Şehir Üniversitesi Kütüphanesi'ndedir.Günümüzde ticari ya da kamusal web siteleri ve bunların çevrim içi hizmetleri Servis Dışı Bırakma (DoS-Denial of Service) veya Dağıtık Servis Dışı Bırakma (DDoS-Distributed Denial of Service) saldırılarından kaynaklanan risklerle karşı karşıya bulunmaktadırlar. DoS/DDoS en basit ve etkili siber saldırı yöntemlerinden biri haline gelmiştir.
Tezimiz bir DDoS türü olan TCP (Transmission Control Protocol) SYN seli saldırısına odaklanmıştır. TCP sunucularını hedef alan bu saldırı türünün amacı sunucuların erişebilirliğini ortadan kaldırmaktır. Tez kapsamında ilk olarak bu saldırı türünden korunmak ve etkilerini azaltmak için literatürde bulunan yöntemler anlatılmıştır.
D.J.Bernstein tarafından TCP SYN seli saldırısının etkilerini azaltmak için önerilen SYN çerezleri yöntemi ve bu yöntemin Linux çekirdeği üzerindeki gerçeklemesi ayrıntılı bir şekilde incelenmiştir. Yöntemin güvenliğinin arttırılması ve TCP SYN seli saldırısının tespit edilmesi ile ilgili olarak literatürde bulunan çalışmalar ve öneriler ayrıntılı olarak sunulmuştur.
Tez kapsamında SYN çerezleri yönteminin güvenliğinin arttırılması ve saldırı tespit yönteminin değiştirilmesi ile ilgili öneriler geliştirilmişve gerçeklemeleri yapılmıştır. Oluşturulan yeni SYN çerezleri yöntemi ile TCP SYN seli saldırısına karşı güvenliğin arttırılması ve kaynak (CPU,RAM) tüketiminin azaltılması hedeflenmiştir. Sonuç olarak temel hedef sunucuların erişilebilirliğinin arttırılmasıdır.
Önerdiğimiz yöntem sadece sunucu işletim sistemlerinin çekirdek kodları üzerinde değişiklik içermektedir. Bunun yanında kullanıcı ve sistem uygulamalarında herhangi bir değişiklik yapılması gerekmemektedir.Yazarlık Beyanı ii
Özet iii
Abstract iv
Teşekkür v
Şekil Listesi viii
Kısaltmalar ix
1 Giriş 1
2 Servis Dışı Bırakma Saldırıları 2
2.1 Servis Dışı Bırakma (Denial of Service) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
2.2 Dağıtık Servis Dışı Bırakma (Distributed Denial of Service) . . . . . . . . 3
2.3 Köle Bilgisayarlar ve DDOS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
2.4 Dünya Genelinde YapılmışDDoS Saldırıları . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
3 DDoS Saldırı Çeşitleri 6
3.1 UDP Seli . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
3.2 ICMP Seli . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
3.3 ParçalanmışPaket Atağı . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
3.4 Ping of Death . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
3.5 Slowloris . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
3.6 HTTP Get Seli . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
3.7 HTTP Post Seli . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
3.8 Slow Post . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
3.9 Apache Killer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
3.10 DNS Seli ve DNS Sorgulama Saldırısı . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
4 DDoS Saldırılarından Korunmakİçin Alınması Gereken Önlemler 11
4.1 AğTrafiğiniİzlemek . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
4.2 Yük Dengeleyicileri Kullanmak . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
4.3 Saldırı Tespit ve Önleme Sistemleri Kurmak . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
4.4 Saldırıları Saptırmak . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
4.5 Yazılım Güncellemelerinin Yapılması . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
4.6 Bantgenişliğinin Arttırılması . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
4.7 Doğru Konfigürasyonun Yapılması . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
4.8 Yönlendirici Seviyesinde DDoS Saldırılarından Korunmak . . . . . . . . . 14
4.9 Güvenlik Duvarı Seviyesinde DDoS Saldırılarından Korunmak . . . . . . . 14
5 TCP SYN Seli Saldırısı ve Korunma Yöntemleri 15
5.1 TCP Protokolüİleİlgili Temel Bilgiler . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
5.2 TCP Oturum Başlatma ve Sonlandırma . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
5.3 TCP SYN Seli Saldırısı . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
5.4 TCP SYN Seli Saldırısından Korunmakİçin Kullanılan Mevcut Yöntemler 25
5.4.1 SYN Önbellek . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
5.4.2 SYN Vekil Sunucu/Güvenlik Duvarı . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
5.4.3 SYN Çerezleri . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
5.5 SYN Çerezleri Yöntemininİncelenmesi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
5.6 SYN Çerezleri Yönteminiİyileştirmekİçin Önerilen Yöntemler . . . . . . 30
5.7 SYN Çerezleri Yönteminiİyileştirmekİçin Önerdiğimiz Yöntem . . . . . . 32 5.7.1 Güvenliğinin Arttırılması . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
5.7.2 Algılanma Yönteminin Değiştirilmesi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
5.7.2.1 Mevcut 2.6.32.69 Çekirdek Gerçeklemesininİncelenmesi . 33
5.7.2.2 Önerilen 2.6.32.69 Çekirdek Yapısının Gerçeklenmesi . . . 37
6 Test Ortamı ve Sonuçların Değerlendirilmesi 41
6.1 2.6.32.69 Çekirdek Sürümünün Derlenmesi ve Gerekli Programların Kurulması . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
6.2 Testİşleminin Yapılması ve Sonuçların Değerlendirilmesi . . . . . . . . . 44 6.2.1 SınırlandırılmışPaket Sayısıİle Saldırı . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
6.2.2 SınırlandırılmamışPaket Sayısıİle Saldırı . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
6.2.3 Sonuçlar ve Öneriler . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
An AO∗ based exact algorithm for the Canadian traveler problem
No full textThe Canadian traveler problem (CTP) is a simple, yet challenging, stochastic optimization problem wherein an agent is given a graph where some edges are blocked with certain probabilities and the status of these edges can be disambiguated dynamically upon reaching an incident vertex. The goal is to devise a traversal policy that results in the shortest expected walk length between a given starting vertex and a termination vertex. CTP has been shown to be intractable in many broad settings. In this paper, we introduce an optimal algorithm for the problem based on a Markov decision process formulation, which is a new improvement on AO* search that takes advantage of the special problem structure in CTP. We call our algorithm CAO*, which stands for AO* with caching. CAO* uses a caching mechanism to avoid re-expansion of previously visited states and makes use of admissible upper bounds at a node level for dynamic state-space pruning. CAO* is not polynomial time, but it can dramatically shorten the execution time needed to find an exact solution for moderately sized instances. We present computational experiments on a realistic variant of the problem involving an actual maritime minefield data set
Classifying educational materials in low-resource languages
No full textClassifyingeducationalresourcessuchasvideosandarticles can be challenging in low-resource languages due to lack of appropriate tools and sufficient labeled data. To overcomethisproblem,acrosslingualclassificationmethod that utilizes resources created in one high-resource language, such as English, to perform classification in many low-resource languages, is proposed. Data scarcity issue is prevented by transferring information from highresources languages to the low-resources ones. First, word embeddings are extracted using one of the frameworks proposedpreviously,thenclassifiersaretrainedusingthehighresource language documents. Two versions of the method thatusedifferenthigher-levelcompositionfunctionsareimplemented and compared
A state space reduction heuristic for multiple depot vehicle scheduling problem
No full textTezin basılısı, İstanbul Şehir Üniversitesi Kütüphanesi'ndedir.Multiple Depot Vehicle Scheduling Problem (MDVSP) is the problem of assigning timetabled trips of di erent lines to a limited number of vehicles emanating from multiple depots. It is a component of bus transit planning process of public transportation companies and aims to prepare vehicle schedules covered by minimum number of vehicles with minimum total deadhead kilometers while satisfying trip compatibility relations.
In this thesis, two heuristic solution methodologies are devised to solve MDVSP by following the current literature. Iterative Rescheduling (IR) improves the existing heuristic method Schedule - Cluster - Reschedule (SCR) where Trips Merger (TM) is based on reducing the state space by using the outputs of IR solution.
Vehicle scheduling problem of Metrobus System of Istanbul Electricity, Tramway, and Tunnel (IETT) General Directorate is modelled as MDVSP and solved by IR and TM heuristics. It is shown that preparing vehicle schedules of the system via mathematical optimization instead of manual methods and relaxing the rule of disallowance of line change which is applied in current scheduling methodology leads to less costly vehicle schedules.Abstract iv
Öz v
Acknowledgments vii
List of Figures ix
List of Tables x
Abbreviations xi
1 Introduction 1
2 Background and Multiple Depot Vehicle Scheduling Problem 4
2.1 Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
2.2 Bus Planning Process of Public Transport Companies . . . . .4
2.2.1 Transport Network Design Problem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
2.2.2 Bus Timetabling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
2.2.3 Vehicle Scheduling Problem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
2.2.4 Driver Scheduling and Rostering . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
2.2.5 A Brief Discussion on Optimization in Bus Planning Process . . . 8
2.3 Multiple Depot Vehicle Scheduling Problem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
2.3.1 Objective Function of Multiple Depot Vehicle Scheduling Problem 10
2.3.2 Constraints of Multiple Depot Vehicle Scheduling Problem . . . . . 10
2.3.3 Mathematical Modelling Approaches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
2.3.3.1 Multi-Commodity Network Flow . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
2.3.3.2 Set Partitioning Problem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
2.4 Literature Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
2.4.1 Exact Solution Approaches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
2.4.2 Heuristic Solution Approaches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
2.4.3 Metaheuristic Solution Approaches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
3 Heuristic Algorithms for Multiple Depot Vehicle Scheduling Problem 22
3.1 Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
3.2 Schedule First - Cluster Second . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
3.3 Schedule - Cluster - Reschedule . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
3.4 Iterative Rescheduling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
3.5 Trips Merger . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
3.6 Comparison of Heuristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
3.7 E ciency of TM Heuristic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
4 Case Study 36
4.1 Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
4.2 Metrobus System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
4.3 Computational Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
5 Conclusion and Future Research 43
A Freqeuncies of All Lines of Metrobus System 45
Bibliography 5
Leadership and conflict resolution:comparative case studies of Aceh and Kurdish conflicts
No full textTezin basılısı İstanbul Şehir Üniversitesi Kütüphanesi'ndedir.This thesis examines how the leaders of states and rebel groups influence conflict resolution. It argues that conciliatory gestures by the leaders could help to diminish tensions and mistrust between adversary groups. This study is based on the comparative case studies of the Aceh and Kurdish conflicts with regard to the impacts of the state and rebel group leaders. This study uses content analysis method to analyze the statements of the leaders. Then, it examines how these statements are reflected on their future decisions with regard to conflict resolution. In the Aceh conflict, especially after the Suharto regime, successor presidents were willing to end the conflict. In 2005, leaders of GAM (Gerakan Aceh Merdeka) and Indonesian government agreed and decades of conflict ended. On the other hand, Kurdish conflict still continues and there are ups and downs on the relations between the PKK (Partiya Karkerên Kurdistanê) and Turkish government. This study aims to analyze why the Kurdish conflict resolution process failed but the Aceh case reached peace. By taking lessons from the Aceh conflict it is aimed to provide alternative solutions to the Kurdish conflict from the leadership perspective.ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................ iv
ÖZ ................................................................................................................................ v
TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................ vi
LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................. viii
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ...................................................................................... x
CHAPTERS 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................... 1
1.1. Historical Background ...................................................................................... 1
1.2. Statement of the Problem ................................................................................. 3
1.3. Significance of the Study ................................................................................. 4
1.4. Research Question ............................................................................................ 4
1.5. Research Design ............................................................................................... 5
1.6. Theoretical Framework .................................................................................... 9
1.6.1. Concessions and Concession Making ..................................................... 11
1.6.2. Symbolic Gestures .................................................................................. 12
1.6.3. Tensions Reducing Measures ................................................................. 12
1.6.4. Confidence Building Measure ................................................................ 12
1.7. Assumptions and Limitations ......................................................................... 13
1.8. Thesis Outline ................................................................................................. 14
2. LEADERS’ CONCILIATION AND BUILDING THE PEACE .......................... 15
2.1. De-Escalation of the Conflict, Leaders, and Conciliation .............................. 15
2.1.1. De-Escalation of the Conflict ................................................................. 15
2.2. Leadership Types ........................................................................................... 18
2.2.1. Top-Level Leadership ............................................................................. 18
2.2.2. Middle Range Leadership ....................................................................... 19
2.2.3. Grassroots Leadership ............................................................................ 21
2.3. Leaders and De-escalation of the Conflict ..................................................... 21
2.4. Conciliation .................................................................................................... 24
2.4.1. Concessions and Concession Making ..................................................... 26
2.4.2. Symbolic Gestures .................................................................................. 27
2.4.3. Tensions Reducing Measures ................................................................. 27
2.4.4. Confidence Building Measure ................................................................ 28
2.5. Processes for Peace-building between Leaders .............................................. 28
2.6. Peace-Building ............................................................................................... 35
2.6.1. Perspective Taking and Empathy ........................................................... 40
2.7. Peace Culture .................................................................................................. 40
2.8. Conclusion ...................................................................................................... 42
3. THE ACEH CONFLICT AND ITS RESOLUTION ............................................. 44
3.1. The Aceh Conflict .......................................................................................... 44
3.1.1. Periods of Presidents and the Aceh Conflict .......................................... 46
3.1.1.1. 1999-2001: Habibie and Wahid Periods ......................................... 46
3.1.1.1.1. Year 1999 ................................................................................ 46
3.1.1.1.2. Year 2000 ................................................................................ 52
3.1.1.2. 2001-2004: President Megawati and Aceh Conflict ....................... 54
3.1.1.2.1. Year 2001 ................................................................................ 54
3.1.1.2.2. Year 2002 ................................................................................ 59
3.1.1.2.3. Year 2003 ................................................................................ 64
3.1.1.2.4. Year 2004 ................................................................................ 69
3.1.1.2.5. Year 2005 Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) Presidency and Peace........................................................................................................ 72
4. KURDISH CONFLICT ......................................................................................... 77
4.1. Kurdish Conflict 2005-2009 ........................................................................... 77
4.1.1. Year 2005................................................................................................ 77
4.1.2. Year 2006................................................................................................ 85
4.1.3. Year 2007................................................................................................ 87
4.1.4. Year 2008................................................................................................ 90
4.1.5. Year 2009 Kurdish Initiative and Its Failure .......................................... 93
5. CONCLUSION .................................................................................................... 103
BIBLIOGRAPHY .................................................................................................... 11