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Development Scenarios and Wildfire Risk in Central Oregon
No full textRisk from natural hazards occurs where areas vulnerable to natural hazards and development intersect. Development in vulnerable areas is a societal choice that has a lasting impact as our built environment is relatively permanent. Development patterns that contribute to increased wildfire risk mostly occur within the wildland urban interface, a land use type where development is at the fringes or intercept of wildland areas and is more flammable due to surrounding vegetation, slope, local climate, and other factors. To understand how past and future development potentials may impact fire risk in wildfire prone areas, a case study of Deschutes County, Oregon was conducted. In Chapter 1, past and future development trajectories were evaluating using data sets of land use and cover (NLCD), wildland urban interface (WUI; University of Wisconsin-Madison\u27s SILVIS Lab), and surveys and interviews with local land use planners in Deschutes County, Oregon. Results from land cover and WUI data indicate the footprint of low-density, sprawling WUI grew more than 20% from 2000 to 2020 and as of 2020, over 80% of the development in the county was considered WUI. Interviews outlined three main mechanisms that would allow for further sprawling growth in the region, including demand for rural resorts, agricultural land conversion to developable land, and rural ADU additions to the landscape. Interviewees indicated that Oregon\u27s land use planning program, which implements urban growth containment strategies as a way to preserve resource lands, was the main factor standing in the way of sprawling rural development, while other major constraints included water availability, wildfire risk, and insurance availability. The results suggested two major alternative scenarios are plausible depending on societal choices. The first scenario was characterized by compact development constrained by urban growth boundaries, indicative of Oregon\u27s land use planning system; the other scenario characterized by unconstrained development where the three main mechanisms mentioned in the interviews would allow for more frequent low-density rural development.
In fire-prone Deschutes County, the findings of Chapter 1 beg the question of whether different societal choices about development patterns are likely to lead to differences in wildfire risk. In Chapter 2, this question was addressed using a pilot version of the landscape simulation modeling platform called Envision. The agent-based simulation modeling software was used to model two potential future scenarios called compact and sprawling development, along with two wildfire regime scenarios, one representing historic fire patterns and another representing a more extreme fire future. Modeling experiments were used to learn if development patterns are likely to impact wildfire risk. Statistical analysis determined that the spatial pattern of development was not a significant indicator of risk; however, the extreme wildfire regime scenario that increased wildfires to 2-3 times more area than the historical regime significantly influenced the amount of risk to development indicating future risk is highly influenced by climate factors. The pilot version of Envision included a relatively new feature for wildfire simulation models -- the development of urban wildfire potential where urban areas can carry wildfires rather than be represented as unburnable. Although counterintuitive that development patterns would not influence the extent of risk, visualization and evaluation of simulation runs highlighted several spatial patterns of wildfire risk that help explain the result: (1) given that the majority of urban development didn\u27t vary between the two scenarios, when wildfire entered densely populated areas the destruction across scenarios was similar and extreme; (2) defensible space and wildfire resilient construction materials may have limited wildfire spread and losses. Additionally, rural wildfires were more destructive under the sprawling scenario which had more rural development and the inclusion of prescribed fire as a mitigation strategy across scenarios in the model may have limited wildfire spread and losses in both scenarios. This research was used to inform updates to the pilot version of Envision for the National Science Foundation funded FireNET project and could help inform decisions by policy makers and land use planners in fire prone regions. Policies relating to land use planning and natural hazards can be used as a tool to address how we develop in vulnerable areas and may reduce the risk communities experience in similar areas
Beyond Translating Cultures: Organizational Cultural Brokering and Latin@/e/x Community Resilience after the Mobile Home Parks Fire
No full textAs wildfires increase in frequency and severity in rural communities, disaster management agencies are seeking to collaborate with community-based organizations (CBOs) working with rural, low-income Latin@/e/x communities to build wildfire resilience. This qualitative case study examines the critical role of CBOs rooted in their local, predominately low-income Latin@/e/x communities as cultural brokers in supporting Latin@/e/x wildfire survivors following the 2020 Mobile Home Parks Fire in a rural county in Oregon. Drawing from 23 semi-structured interviews, three focus groups, a review of relevant documents, and participant observations, the research investigates how Latin@/e/x CBOs navigated the complex cultural landscape between wildfire survivors and traditional disaster recovery frameworks. Namely, this research aims to address the following research questions: To what extent, and how, do Latin@/e/x CBOs leverage culturally rooted knowledge within the communities they work with to create opportunities for collective healing? What challenges do Latin@/e/x CBOs face in integrating culturally rooted knowledge into disaster resilience programs for low-income, rural Latin@/e/x communities? What opportunities exist for mutual learning and collaboration between diverse, local community practices and state disaster resilience frameworks?
This case study examines how institutionalized disaster recovery systems, designed for administrative efficiency, often overlook the cultural realities of Latin@/e/x wildfire survivors. The research reveals significant challenges in wildfire recovery for Latin@/e/x communities, including linguistic barriers, resource scarcity, systemic trauma, and cultural disconnection. When disaster recovery frameworks clash with local culture, those with the least institutional power bear the greatest risk. The findings reveal how standardized approaches can unintentionally reproduce systemic vulnerabilities rather than support transformational, culturally rooted resilience. Effective cultural brokering between conventional disaster management agencies and Latin@/e/x wildfire-impacted communities requires institutional commitment to long-term leadership development, the cultivation of institutional humility, sustained relationship-building before and after disasters, meaningful policy reforms, and robust accountability mechanisms. This study proposes an expanded conceptualization of cultural brokering at an organizational level for understanding how cultural brokering can operate as a multidirectional process with transformative potential. It differentiates between two distinct approaches: one-way and multi-way cultural brokering. One-way cultural brokering refers to cultural translation in one direction, aiming to focus on improving access to existing conventional disaster recovery systems and helping Latin@/e/x wildfire survivors navigate institutional processes through linguistic interventions, case management, and culturally rooted outreach strategies. Multi-way cultural brokering refers to a circular cultural translation direction where communities are able to create new disaster recovery paths rooted in local wildfire survivor culture in partnership with conventional disaster recovery allies. This approach improves safety and roots in core community challenges to recovery because it offers a transformative approach that centers community priorities, lived experiences, and cultural resources. By positioning local cultural knowledge as essential rather than supplemental to conventional approaches to wildfire recovery programming, these organizations have developed innovative pathways for grief, healing, and transformational resilience for their wildfire survivor service recipients. This approach reimagines disaster recovery and resilience programming by recognizing community members as the most crucial recovery resource, establishing culturally rooted and trauma informed healing processes, and developing leadership and political engagement among survivors.
The findings have profound implications for disaster management, highlighting the critical importance of cultural knowledge, community expertise, and relationship-centered collaboration. This study demonstrates that CBOs can leverage their cultural knowledge in ways that improve the services they provide. However, to be able to leverage that cultural knowledge, they and the community members they work with should be redesignated as decision-makers rather than solely service providers or advocates. By positioning Latin@/e/x community members as the primary architects of their own recovery, this approach offers an organizational model for creating more equitable, responsive, and transformative disaster resilience strategies. This shift requires shared governance models where CBOs, government agencies, and funders collectively determine recovery priorities and program implementation. These shared governance models should also reflect a revision of flexible wildfire disaster recovery assessment tools that can better reflect diverse living arrangements, informal housing networks, and cultural understandings of recovery CBOs operate within
Understanding COVID-19 Message Fatigue and Reactance in a Post-Crisis Context
No full textThe COVID-19 pandemic prompted widespread public health messaging encouraging behaviors such as vaccination, mask-wearing, and staying home when sick. However, persistent exposure to these messages has sometimes produced unintended effects, including message fatigue and psychological reactance. Drawing on psychological reactance theory (PRT) and the integrative model of behavioral prediction (IMBP), this study examines the relationships between message fatigue, psychological reactance, and behavioral intentions toward three COVID-19 preventive behaviors: vaccination, masking, and staying home when sick. A survey of 348 U.S. adults assessed participants\u27 levels of message fatigue, psychological reactance, attitudes, perceived norms, self-efficacy, response efficacy, collective efficacy, and behavioral intentions. Results revealed that message fatigue was positively associated with psychological reactance. Psychological reactance, in turn, was negatively associated with attitudes, perceived norms, self-efficacy, response efficacy, and behavioral intentions related to COVID-19 prevention behaviors, though varied depending on the specific behavior. These findings highlight the need for public health campaigns to consider the long-term effects of repetitive messaging and psychological resistance when promoting health behaviors, particularly as societies transition from crisis response to ongoing public health management
Book Review of, New York City’s Beloved Owl
No full textReview of: Jacqueline Emery and David Lei, Finding Flaco: Our Year with New York City’s Beloved Owl. Foreword by Ed Shanahan. Afterword by Rita McMahon. New York: Owls of New York, 2024. 224 pp. $50.00 (hb)
Influences on Suicidality and Suicide-Prevention Needs for the Autistic Community: Qualitative Insights from Multiple Perspectives
No full textAutistic individuals are disproportionately likely to experience suicidal thoughts, feelings, and actions. Addressing suicidality is also a high priority of autistic community members. The goal of this study was to understand broad influences on suicidality and suicide-prevention needs for the autistic community. Using a community-based participatory research approach, we conducted a reflective thematic analysis of qualitative interviews with 16 autistic adults, 8 family members, and 14 mental health providers. Themes summarizing influences on suicidality and suicide-prevention needs centered on three broad thematic concepts: (1) Pervasive negative societal attitudes and social experiences have a lasting impact on autistic people\u27s feelings of worth; (2) negative experiences and stressors add strain, making life feel overwhelming and hopeless; and (3) difficulty regulating and managing emotions can increase the likelihood of suicidal feelings and actions. Participants provided autism-specific recommendations to incorporate into suicide prevention. The findings emphasize the need for multifaceted suicide-prevention efforts supporting autistic people through improved societal treatment, community-level supports, and individually tailored services.Lay AbstractAutistic people experience suicidal thoughts, feelings, and actions more often than non-autistic people. Autistic community members say this is an important research topic. The goal of this study was to understand broadly what kinds of things might lead autistic people to feel suicidal. We also wanted to know what is needed for suicide prevention for the autistic community. The research team for this study included autistic community partners using an approach called community-based participatory research. The study team did interviews with 16 autistic adults, 8 family members, and 14 mental health providers. The results show that different types of experiences can lead to suicidality. One influence is the negative treatment of autistic people. Negative experiences, challenges, and stressors can also make life feel overwhelming for autistic people. Finally, difficult emotions can be hard to manage. There are many things that participants thought would help autistic people feel less suicidal. The study shows that autistic people need to be treated better and need more community supports to help prevent suicidal feelings. They need individualized services to help manage their emotions
Approximation and Parameterized Algorithms for Covering with Disks of Two Types of Radii
No full textWe study the Discrete Covering with Two Types of Radii problem motivated by its application in wireless networks. In this problem, the goal is to assign either small-range high frequency or large-range low frequency to each access point, maximizing the number of users in high-frequency regions while ensuring that each user is in the range of an access point. Unlike other weighted covering problems, our problem requires satisfying two simultaneous objectives, which calls for novel approaches that leverage the underlying geometry of the problem. In our work, we present two new algorithms: the first is a polynomial-time (2.5 + ϵ)-approximation, and the second is an exact algorithm for sparse instances, which is fixed-parameter tractable (FPT) in the number of large-radius disks. We also prove that such an FPT algorithm is impossible for general instances lacking sparsity, assuming the Exponential Time Hypothesis. Before our work, the best-known polynomial-time approximation factor was 4 for the problem. Our approximation algorithm results from a fine-grained classification of points that can contribute to the gain of a solution. Based on this classification, we design two sub-algorithms with interdependent guarantees to recover the respective class of points as gain.
Our algorithm exploits further properties of Delaunay triangulations to achieve the improved bound. The FPT algorithm is based on branching that utilizes the sparsity of the instances to limit the overall search space
Model-Based Assessment of Ocean Monitoring Temporal and Spatial Resolution Requirements for Acoustic Operations
No full textUnderstanding present and future ocean conditions is essential for the effective planning and execution of a wide range of naval and commercial acoustic operations. The four-dimensional structure of temperature and salinity}from the ocean surface to the seabed}is a critical factor influencing acoustic transmission properties. Modern numerical ocean modeling systems consist of three primary components: ocean observations, a numerical forecasting model, and a data assimilation system. Of the tens of millions of global ocean observations assimilated daily, the majority derive from satellite-based surface measurements. In stark contrast, subsurface water column measurements number only in the thousands per day. This disparity highlights the severe undersampling of the ocean’s water column, raising significant questions about the utility of even high-resolution regional ocean forecasts for acoustic operation planning and execution. This paper presents a quantitative model-based approach for determining the temporal and spatial resolution requirements for ocean observations, using an illustrative barrier search operation as a case study. The analysis reveals that the temporal and spatial resolution of ocean observation data necessary to constrain ocean models effectively}such that they could be used to positively impact acoustic operation planning and execution}far exceeds current capabilities, particularly in challenging signal-to-noise ratio environments. This analysis leverages ocean observation data collected during the Spring 2021 New England Shelf Break Acoustics (NESBA) Signals and Noise Experiment conducted jointly by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) and Portland State University (PSU)
Accessible Bike Map Design: A Review and Critique of Portland’s Bike Maps
No full textUrban bike maps can serve as key tools for route planning and navigation for prospective cyclists, providing both general information (such as landmarks and natural features) and cycling specific information (such as bike lane infrastructure types and cycling amenities). Despite this, there is little professional guidance or academic research on best practices for bike map design. Potential guidance should consider the full range of potential cyclists, including disabled cyclists who have often been left out of cycling policy discussions. In this paper, I begin by discussing 3 case studies on participatory mapping methodologies with disabled participants in order to generate insights into what techniques can be used to ethically engage with disabled participants. I then discuss literature on general accessible map design alongside research on the needs of disabled cyclists in order to offer some initial suggestions for holistically accessible bike maps. Color contrast ratios, font legibility, symbol choices, and content choices are identified as key areas of focus for accessible design with color-vision impairment and dyslexia being the most prominently discussed disabilities in existing literature. Finally, I conduct a map critique of the Portland Bureau of Transportation (PBOT) Bike Maps and apply those suggestions. I find that the PBOT Bike Maps succeed in their font choices, color blind friendliness, and choice of point symbols, but could see improvements in color contrast ratios, symbol and font sizes, and the inclusion of more disability specific and safety information
Unmasking the 1920s Ku Klux Klan in Tillamook County, Oregon
No full textThe Ku Klux Klan (KKK) arrived in Oregon in the early 1920s, during the history of the second Klan. The Klan quickly spread throughout the state, aided by a mostly white, Protestant population, as well as by racist and anti-immigrant sentiments which were already embedded in the region.
Much of the influence of KKK Tillamook Chapter No. 8 came between 1921 and 1928, when the lodge pursued an anti-Catholic agenda and supported Prohibition and law enforcement through its dominance of local government, the police, and the courts.
Ultimately, the struggles and decline of the Klan in Oregon coincided with the struggles and decline of the Klan in other states, and its activity faded in the 1930s
First-Principles Theory of Five-And Six-Phonon Scattering
No full textigher-order phonon scatterings beyond fourth order remain largely unexplored despite their potential importance in strongly anharmonic materials at elevated temperatures. We develop a theoretical formalism for first-principles calculation of five- and six-phonon scatterings using Green’s function techniques based on a diagrammatic formalism, and systematically investigate multi-phonon interactions in Si, MgO, and BaO from room temperature to near melting points. Our calculations reveal dramatically different material-dependent behaviors: while five- and six-phonon processes remain negligible in Si even at high temperatures, they become increasingly important in MgO near its melting point (3100 K) and in BaO at intermediate temperatures (1200 K). Most remarkably, five- and six-phonon scatterings surpass three- and four-phonon scattering intensity in BaO near its melting point (2100 K), reducing lattice thermal conductivity by over 50%. We demonstrate that the strength of higher-order interactions is primarily governed by interatomic force constants, with BaO exhibiting five- and six-phonon scattering rates over one order of magnitude stronger than MgO despite identical crystal structures, due to large scattering phase space arising from softened harmonic interactions. Our work provides theoretical insights into the lattice dynamics and thermal transport in strongly anharmonic materials and at elevated temperatures