Naval Postgraduate School
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IMPROVING CYBER RESILIENCE OF SHIPBOARD POWER SYSTEMS USING MACHINE LEARNING
Get PDFNaval vessels are increasingly implementing their own shipboard microgrids to reduce fuel consumption and to meet growing technological requirements. This improved technology comes with benefits but also creates unique risks, including exposure to cyber intrusions. To prevent exploitation of these network vulnerabilities, it is imperative that system anomalies are immediately detected. This research aims to explain how physical intrusions into shipboard components can manifest in power data and how these manifestations can be effectively detected and classified. This research uses a modified Simulink model to simulate a shipboard microgrid and various loads to create realistic test data while adhering to the DOD Interface Standard (MIL-STD-1399). This research then uses a long short term memory (LSTM) network machine learning algorithm, modeled in Python, to create a system for detecting anomalies in a shipboard microgrid. The model generates predictive data, and by comparing the predictive data to current trends, it detects outliers that result from cyber threats, as well as system component failures. This research is critical for improving the operational readiness of the fleet due to both the application of predicting component failures, and the primary objective of protecting ships from cyber threats.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Lieutenant, United States NavyONR Code 3
THE GREAT POWER STRUGGLE IN THE INDIAN OCEAN REGION AND ITS EFFECTS ON SRI LANKA
Get PDFSri Lanka’s strategic position holds significant importance amid the dynamics of the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), presenting it with the challenge of balancing regional powers—India and China. As a founding member of the Non-Aligned Movement, Sri Lanka has historically pursued a non-aligned foreign policy, which proved beneficial during the Cold War and post-Cold War. However, in the current era of great power competition (GPC) between India and China in the IOR, Sri Lanka faces the task of adjusting its foreign policy to survive and thrive. This thesis examines the historical efficacy of Sri Lanka’s non-alignment policy in managing relations with India and China, focusing on economic and security aspects. It evaluates the successes and failures of non-alignment in achieving Sri Lanka’s national objectives, particularly the post-civil war era. Given the impact of the India–China rivalry, the thesis suggests a reassessment of Sri Lankan foreign policy on following options. Sri Lanka may choose to engage closely with India, leveraging its geographical proximity and regional influence, or deepen ties with China to balance against India’s dominance. However, drawing on historical evidence and recent developments, this thesis advocates for Sri Lanka to pursue a middle ground, maintaining true non-alignment amid regional great-power dynamics.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Group Captain, Sri Lanka Air Forc
CHALLENGE AND RESPONSE: MAKING SENSE OF POLICE CULTURE
Get PDFThis thesis explores the complex landscape of police culture, examining its pervasive influence on some of the most persistent and perplexing challenges confronting contemporary police leaders. The central research question driving this study is: How might recharacterizing police culture help leaders to better understand it, and empower them to address significant issues in policing? Employing a mixed methods approach, this research integrates quantitative data analysis with a qualitative case study to examine how police culture is formed, and how it impacts critical areas such as officer misconduct, recruitment and retention, legitimacy, and wellness and resiliency. Conclusively, the thesis argues for a strategic recharacterization of police culture as organizational culture, advocating for a more practical sensemaking model leaders can use to effect meaningful change. The recommendations suggest that police leaders adopt the Challenge/Response Sensemaking Model and the Four Quadrants Model as a decision-making framework to better understand and address their department’s cultural issues. The findings emphasize the importance of prioritizing organizational culture in everyday decisions and advocate for the establishment of feedback systems to stay informed about the challenges officers face, and how they are overcoming those challenges.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Civilian, San Bruno Police Departmen
MAYDAY-MAYDAY-MAYDAY: A CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF FIREFIGHTER ACCOUNTABILITY FAILURES ON THE FIREGROUND
Get PDFDespite having fire service policies and procedures dedicated to ensuring the accountability of personnel, firefighters become injured, lost, and trapped; go missing; and are killed in the line of duty during structural firefighting operations every year. Examining fatal fire reports from the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health from 2010 to 2018, this thesis employs a comparative thematic analysis based on the McKinsey 7S framework to categorize accountability-related contributing factors in firefighter fatalities across types and sizes of U.S. departments. This research finds that most accountability failures occur at the command level; accountability system failures are the least frequent variable in firefighter fatalities; small departments commonly experience training failures; small and midsize departments commonly experience staffing issues; and large departments often encounter failures from equipment usage and radio communications. Based on these findings, this thesis recommends that fire departments 1) focus on the incident commander position to improve fireground accountability and reduce firefighter deaths, 2) conduct studies to evaluate the effectiveness of accountability systems, 3) emphasize and improve training, 4) adequately staff firefighting operations, and 5) comply with recommended equipment standards and promote effective communications between members at the scene of structural fires.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Civilian, FDN
RADICALIZATION PROCESS IN THE NORTHERN CENTER OF MALI AND THE THREE-BORDERS AREA (BETWEEN BURKINA FASO, MALI, AND NIGER): IDENTIFYING ROOT CAUSES OF RADICALIZATION IN SAHEL
Get PDFThe thesis explores the root causes behind the surge in violent extremism in the Malian Center, Malian Sahara, and Sahel region in the past decade. It meticulously analyzes the historical context of the Tuareg and Fulani communities, highlighting colonial legacies, post-independence developments, and marginalization as driving factors toward violent extremist organizations (VEOs). It examines how VEOs exploit historical narratives and social marginalization to recruit from these communities, alongside disruptions in traditional resource management due to climate change and population growth, escalating ethnic tensions and facilitating VEO proliferation. The hybrid nature of VEOs, blending ideological extremism with criminal activities, capitalizes on political instability and economic marginalization. To tackle the persistent violence, a multifaceted approach is proposed, focusing on immediate security concerns and underlying causes. It emphasizes community engagement, conflict resolution, and dialogue among historically marginalized ethnic groups like the Tuareg and Fulani. Empowering local leaders, supporting community-led initiatives, reforming land governance, promoting climate change adaptation, countering extremist propaganda, fostering religious tolerance, and enhancing regional cooperation are highlighted as key strategies to bolster community resilience against radicalization and pave the way for sustainable peace in the region.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Commandant, Niger Arm
SAME AS IT EVER WAS: PERSISTING CHALLENGES WITHIN THE NUCLEAR SECURITY ENTERPRISE
Get PDFThis thesis explores the challenges and strategic implications faced by the nuclear security enterprise in the context of the evolving global nuclear landscape since the end of nuclear testing in 1992. It delves into the impact of significant reductions in the U.S. nuclear arsenal, the decision to end nuclear testing, and the halting of new nuclear weapons design on the nuclear security enterprise’s capabilities and knowledge transfer. The research addresses two primary questions: Since the end of nuclear testing in 1992, what are the persisting challenges seen within the nuclear security enterprise as the United States drew down the nuclear stockpile, and is the current stockpile meeting U.S. strategic requirements today? Through a comprehensive review of Nuclear Posture Reviews across the William J. Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack H. Obama, Donald J. Trump, and Joseph R. Biden administrations, the thesis provides insights into the continuity and changes in nuclear weapons policy, the role of nuclear deterrence, and the strategic responses to emerging nuclear threats from global powers. It underscores the significance of a modernized and resilient nuclear security enterprise to maintain a credible nuclear deterrent in the face of new challenges posed by great power competition and evolving security dynamics.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Outstanding ThesisCivilian, Dept of Energy National Nuclear Security Administratio
ROME IS A MOB: RENÉ GIRARD, PAUL R. BRASS, AND THE PHENOMENON OF COLLECTIVE VIOLENCE
Get PDFThis thesis asks how otherwise ordinary, law-abiding people are capable of coalescing into mobs that attack innocent people and whether conventional theoretical frameworks are sufficient to understand this peculiar category of violence. The scholarship used to examine the case studies contends that this phenomenon is universal. The philosopher René Girard theorized that conflict is a result of an imitative rivalry that can lead to a frenzy so dangerous that it can only be averted through the identification and murder of an innocent third party. Political scientist Paul R. Brass theorized that mob violence is manufactured by those who cultivate and exploit tension between religious and/or ethnic groups. The theoretical frameworks are applied to case studies of mob violence in India. The two case studies follow the same pattern: rumors of a horrific crime incite ordinary people to attack. In the first incident, a man passing through a village was thought to be abducting children. In the second incident, a local handyman was thought to have violated a religious taboo. Using the two frameworks, one anthropological and philosophical, the other political, this thesis finds that even ordinary people can compel each other to participate in mob violence due to the innate impulses to protect the vulnerable and maintain social order. Furthermore, these forces can be manipulated by instrumental actors.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Civilian, NYP
RETURN ON INVESTMENT FOR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
Get PDFEmergency management’s investment in staffing, resources, and adherence to standards varies across local governments, creating challenges in identifying where communities should invest in their programs. This thesis examines return on investment (ROI) approaches that could be applied to emergency management to understand how to allocate limited resources more effectively. The research involved a comprehensive review of existing literature on ROI in both private and public sectors, an analysis of state and local data sources, and flood mitigation ROI data from the Federal Emergency Management Agency. It explored the applicability of several ROI models, including the public value framework and the Phillips five-level ROI framework, to emergency management. The findings indicate that identifying, categorizing, and refining existing data and models would lead to a deeper comprehension of the value of emergency management. Such an approach could facilitate more informed and strategic investment decisions by communities.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Civilian, Office of Emergency Managemen
DETECTION PERFORMANCE EVALUATION IN SPACE-TIME ADAPTIVE PROCESSING USING ENHANCED ELECTRONIC PROTECTION MITIGATION AGAINST ADVANCED SHAPED INTERFERENCES
Get PDFThis paper introduces the formulation of the transmit-waveform-shaped noise jammer (TWS-NJ) as an electronic attack (EA) or noise interference method into space-time adaptive processing (STAP). Monte Carlo simulation reveals a substantial impact on target detection, particularly when the TWS-NJ is co-located with the target in the same spatial cell. Comparative analyses against conventional noise interference like the broadband noise jammer (BB-NJ) underline the superior performance of the TWS-NJ in degrading target detection, especially in the absence of electronic protection (EP) implementation. The study highlights the significance of considering both waveform characteristics and spatial locations of noise interferences when assessing their impact on detection performance. Moreover, the study demonstrates that with electronic support (ES) and an accurate noise interference covariance matrix estimate, the generalized matched filter (GMF) emerges as a highly effective STAP EP technique for mitigating adaptive shaped interference.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Military Expert 5, Republic of Singapore Nav
CONTESTED LOGISTICS: MODELING FORAGING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SEA TO SUSTAIN THE STAND-IN FORCE
Get PDFStand-in Forces (SIF) are the cornerstone of the Marine Corps operational strategy in the western Pacific. To increase unit resiliency and survivability in a contested maritime domain, Marines will sustain themselves using non-traditional, unpredictable methods of logistics distribution and alternative sources of supply such as foraging. The purpose of this study is to explore the effect of shore-based fishing on SIF self-sufficiency in order to better understand how the sea-based subsistence foraging may be used to overcome contested logistics and sustain the SIF. We use Oracle Crystal Ball to simulate the foraging performance of a squad using shore-based fishing to subsist in the western Pacific. We estimate fishing performance using the total catch equation. Catch per unit effort data for each gear type is estimated using 2005 to 2021 Western Pacific Fisheries Information Network (WPacFIN) shore-based creel surveys for the Northern Mariana Islands. Major findings illustrate that shore-based fishing does not improve SIF self-sufficiency relative to the standard combat ration size. The number of gear-hours required to replace a day of supply of packaged operational rations exceeds the manhours a squad has available.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Major, United States Marine Corp