Naval Postgraduate School

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    DEVELOPMENT AND ASSESSMENT OF A MICROGRID DIGITAL TWIN TO ENHANCE ENERGY RESILIENCE IN NAVAL INSTALLATION MICROGRIDS

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    Includes Supplementary MaterialMicrogrids have been identified by the Naval Facilities Engineering Systems Command (NAVFAC) as a potential solution to achieving overall energy security onboard naval installations by providing continuous and uninterrupted power during disturbance events. This thesis investigates the adoption of digital twin (DT) technology for microgrids and the potential effectiveness of a microgrid digital twin (MGDT) to enhance energy resilience onboard naval installations. The current research on DT applications for microgrids highlights many proposed benefits. However, there is a lack of demonstrated case studies on the development and integration of a MGDT with real-world microgrid hardware proving their efficacy. To evaluate the effectiveness of MGDTs in enhancing the resilience of microgrids, this thesis proposes an MGDT development framework that aligns with established systems engineering processes. The proposed MGDT development framework is used in a case study that develops and tests an MGDT for a real-world small-scale microgrid that employs a predictive load shedding algorithm for dynamically shedding non-critical loads. Analysis of the results from the case study showed an enhancement in resilience of the small-scale microgrid using the MGDT compared to traditional load shedding methods. Potential areas for improvement of the MGDT and recommendations to NAVFAC for operationalizing MGDTs are provided.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Lieutenant, United States NavyOffice of Naval Research (Arlington, VA, 22203

    READ @your library Alan Howard, Daniel Nussbaum and Brenda Shaffer (poster)

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    A project of the Dudley Knox Library at the Naval Postgraduate School

    DIVIDED WE FALL: PREVENTING MASS VIOLENCE THROUGH BEHAVIORAL THREAT ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT TEAMS

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    The threat of mass violence weighs heavily on the American public, who brace for future attacks without a clear strategy for prevention. Offender profiling emerged in the mid-20th century as a prevention for complex criminal issues. Still, it failed to survive the scientific method and was determined to be more a parlor trick than a reliable tool. Since the inception of the modern mass violence phenomenon, behavioral threat assessment and management (BTAM) has emerged, analyzing behaviors common to mass shooters and allowing a deliberate prevention effort based on data and scientific analysis. This thesis uses three Kentucky-based mass violence incidents as cases, applying counterfactuals to BTAM in those cases. The first was a workplace shooting that occurred in 1989 in Louisville, Kentucky, and shows that had the BTAM been in place, all involved would have prevention resources and strategies. The next case is from the Heath High School shooting in 1997 near Paducah, Kentucky, which showed the promise of prevention strategies. The last case, the Old National Bank shooting in 2023 in Louisville, Kentucky, showed the limitations of BTAM in prevention and is included to ensure that proponents of the evidence-based BTAM program do not rely solely on any single solution for the prevention of violence. Finally, the thesis explores the imperative to incorporate a pre-event prevention plan in addition to the extensive and necessary response-based focus that mass shootings require.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Civilian, Louisville Metro Police Departmen

    INSURGENT USE OF INTERNATIONAL BORDERS

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    Concurrent with great power competition, insurgencies exist as a global challenge, with insurgent groups often exploiting neighboring states for resources and safe havens. However, the state under threat is constrained by international sovereignty laws, limiting its military response. This study examines the factors within a state that best support the state security apparatus in combating cross-border insurgencies, focusing on the state under threat rather than external factors. Using both quantitative regression analysis and qualitative case study methods, the research identifies key variables that are associated with state victories over insurgent forces. The study found that the democracy, education, military personnel strength, and national capabilities are crucial. The most significant variable for state victory is national material capabilities, while the lack of educational engagement among youth also plays a key role in insurgent recruitment. These findings underscore the importance of whole-of-nation development to counter cross-border insurgencies. This research provides critical insights for analysts and policymakers in addressing insurgent threats and highlights the need for integrated social and military support strategies.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Major, United States Arm

    REMOVING THE BARRIER: USING FEDERAL LAWS TO DETER CRIMINALITY IN PROTESTS

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    Civil unrest and protests are increasing in the United States. When criminal activities arise from these incidents, they lead to significant societal and economic costs. The costs are increasingly exacerbated by the presence of "traveling protestors"—individuals from outside the area, often from different states—who exploit protests to engage in criminal behavior. This thesis analyzes several national incidents to identify the impact and cascading effects on the economy and society. The thesis then examines federal statutes to determine effectiveness in providing criminal charges and punishments for traveling protestors, distinguished from legitimate protestors, whose civil liberties require protection.The thesis explores whether the federal government could apply the Hobbs Act, Travel Act, and the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) Act to address criminal behavior emerging from protests. The findings suggest that with the interstate nature of traveling protestors, these federal laws are applicable to criminal activities stemming from protests. Thus, the federal government can address a national issue—widespread criminality arising from protest—occurring within local events, at otherwise legitimate protests. The thesis concludes by balancing the protection of civil liberties with legal measures aimed at deterring and preventing future significant societal and economic losses resulting from protest-related crimes while preserving spaces for civil discourse.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Civilian, New York Police Department/New York City Emergency Management Department (NYCEM

    DEEP LEARNING TECHNIQUES FOR SHIPBOARD SOUNDSCAPE CLASSIFICATION

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    The Navy is seeking to remedy a perceived lack of innovation in the field of acoustic soundscape classification by investing in deep learning classification techniques to implement in own-ship acoustic monitoring (OSAM) applications. Data used from a Naval Surface Warfare Center (Carderock Division) (NSWCCD) was modeled and classified using deep-learning methods, with both mel-scaled short-time Fourier-transformed and wavelet-transformed soundscape data. These models were then compared to similarly-transformed urban environmental soundscape data. Results show that convolutional neural networks are capable of classifying shipboard soundscapes effectively, with 99% classification accuracy, and are perhaps even more capable with shipboard data than other urban environmental soundscapes.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Lieutenant, United States Nav

    FUTURE OF THE FORD-CLASS AIRCRAFT CARRIER PROGRAM

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    Difficulties managing cost growth, schedule overruns, and performance issues in the Ford-class aircraft carrier program are a critical oversight topic and a key problem area in planning for the Navy’s future. While the Navy is conducting research and focusing efforts on managing cost growth in production, further research is needed into the program management structure and utilization of current acquisition policy and guidance to assess possible courses of action. A case study analysis of the Ford-class program—contextualized by a review of current literature to include acquisition policy—identified the various constraints, priorities, and impacts of acquisition strategy decisions to provide insight into future courses of action and objectives required for program success. The program has seen poor outcomes, primarily due to external pressure and an inability to mitigate constraints despite conducting detailed planning for tailored acquisition strategies. Changes are recommended to the current utilization of the Major Capability Acquisition pathway and organization of program offices and support staff to provide a clearly structured framework that mitigates constraints on the design and build process of Ford-class aircraft carriers.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Lieutenant, United States Nav

    MENTAL HEALTH ON THE MOVE: THE EFFECTS OF RELOCATION ON THE PSYCHOLOGICAL AND BEHAVIORAL HEALTH OF MILITARY CHILDREN

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    Using rich panel data linking medical records of children in military families to their sponsor's service records, I estimate the effects of moving on psychological and behavioral health diagnoses of children. To identify causal effects, I employ an event study framework that leverages variation in treatment timing among children. I find significant short-term disruption effects in the quarter of a move, with up to a 10% reduction in diagnoses. Younger children (under 10) experience a larger initial decline in diagnoses, followed by a sharp increase in diagnoses in subsequent quarters. In contrast, children aged 10 or older exhibit a smaller initial decline compared to younger children, but their disruption period lasts for an additional quarter after the move. I do not find strong evidence of long-term effects of moving on psychological and behavioral diagnosis rates in children. Diagnosis rates generally return to pre-trend levels once children are established in their new location. Overall, my findings suggest that while moving temporarily disrupts diagnoses, the long-term effects on children's psychological or behavioral health diagnoses appear to be minimal.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Outstanding ThesisMajor, United States Marine Corp

    Distance Learning (DL) Class Schedule AY/AQ: 2025/3

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    Distance Learning (DL) class schedule listing: CourseID / Seg / Course Name / Class Type / Instructor / Lec/Lab Hours / Class Schedule

    SURGE Newsletter Winter 2025

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    This quarterly publication is intended to provide easy access to EAG activities, energy-related projects across the DOD, NATO, Academia, and industry, and provide a pathway for student energy thesis research. EAG is one of the cross-cutting Academic Groups at NPS. Our mission is to create a Center of Excellence for Defense Energy, and we do this across three pillars that will be highlighted in future newsletters: curriculum, research and outreach

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