Naval Postgraduate School
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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ACTIVE-DUTY NURSE WORKFORCE AND ATTRITION TRENDS
No full textFor the Military Health System (MHS) to maintain a staffed, trained, and ready active-duty Nurse Corps, it is key to understand active-duty nurse trends and attrition factors. This thesis aims to provide a summary on the composition, demographics, and service-related factors of military nurses who attrite during defined periods. The active-duty nurse population was grouped by Registered Nurses and Advanced Practice Registered Nurses (APRNs), with a subgroup of APRNs by specialty. Using data from January 2016 to March 2023, four Kaplan-Meier Survival estimates and five Linear Probability Models were completed. Findings show 84% of nurse corps officers remain in service at seven years. If a nurse joins the Navy or Air Force, a nurse has a 65% probability of staying in to 20 years. If a nurse joins the Army, a nurse has a 60% chance of staying in to 20 years. Navy APRNs have an 82% probability of staying to 20 years, followed by Army APRNs at 76%, and Air Force APRNs at 65%. Over 45% of active-duty nurses are 40 years of age and over. More than 22% of active-duty nurses are retirement eligible. The findings in this thesis are important for policy makers as geographic nurse supply and demand issues coupled with age-related demographic shifts have the potential to affect the recruitment and retention of active-duty nurses. This thesis analyzed only a select group of nurse specialties. The DoD would benefit from further studies on all 20 nurse specialty types.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Lieutenant Commander, United States Nav
STRATEGIC FUSION OR FISSION? THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF NUCLEAR COOPERATION IN SHAPING SINO-RUSSIAN RELATIONS
Get PDFSino-Russian nuclear cooperation has grown rapidly in the past decade, eliciting concern from United States (U.S.) policymakers. To determine the impact of this inherently significant activity on the larger relationship, this thesis examines the current nuclear cooperation between Beijing and Moscow within their broader strategic partnership by comparing it to the Anglo-American nuclear alliance and the historical Sino-Soviet alignment.The analysis of the Sino-Russian “no limits” strategic partnership shows it is, in practice, deliberately limited. Driven to avoid a repeat of the Sino-Soviet split, the Sino-Russian partnership is a pragmatic alignment primarily driven by shared security concerns and characterized by the lack of binding institutions, trust, and reciprocity seen in enduring alliances.The analysis suggests that this nuclear cooperation reflects the deliberate pragmatism of the larger relationship. While significant, it is a transactional arrangement designed to support Beijing’s and—to a much lesser degree—Moscow’s revisionist goals. The loosely institutionalized agreements, asymmetric benefits favoring China, and divergent long-term goals that limit the larger relationship also exist in the nuclear cooperation, effectively preventing strong positive or negative outcomes.For U.S. policymakers, this assessment indicates that the Sino-Russian nuclear cooperation reflects the limits of the larger alignment and should not overly influence U.S. strategic planning.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Captain, United States Air Forc
ASSESSING MODULARITY OF OPEN SYSTEM ARCHITECTURES WITH EMPHASIS ON APPLICATION IN MISSILE TEST PROGRAMS
Get PDFThe pace of technological development has created a need for open systems that can accommodate portfolios of technologies. Existing research has focused primarily on the development of modular systems that integrate mature technologies, and few studies exist regarding open systems that serve to accommodate experimental technology. This study addresses the problem of how to assess the modularity and openness of a system, particularly that of a missile component test bed. The purpose of this study is to present a method to evaluate a test system architecture to determine how modular and open it is. This study consists of a literature review, methodology proposal, methodology implementation, and an analysis of results. The literature review consists of works relevant to the assessment of modularity and openness. The proposed methodology incorporates model-based systems engineering (MBSE) and algorithms to assess modularity and openness. The proposed methodology is implemented on two theoretical systems and a test bed in four contexts. The results indicate that the proposed methodology is effective. The proposed measures capture modularity and openness. The MBSE framework provides an effective toolset to implement the assessment and generate inputs required to calculate modularity and openness metrics. Further work incorporating more metrics using existing features of MBSE applications should be explored. Potential improvements to MBSE applications should also be considered.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Outstanding ThesisCivilian, Department of the Nav
THWARTING MONEY LAUNDERING: HOW ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE CAN ENHANCE FINANCIAL CRIME ENFORCEMENT
Get PDFArtificial intelligence capabilities have increased exponentially in the last decade, affording terrorist and transnational criminal organizations new opportunities to inflict devastating public harm with greater anonymity. The quality of artificially generated text, images, and videos enable greater financial fraud and disinformation. Reactive investigations of these organizations are on the verge of being vastly outpaced by criminal organizations using artificial intelligence. Conversely, artificial intelligence represents a transformative tool for improving national security and delivering superior public services. Since nearly every crime has a financial aspect, prioritizing financial investigations is paramount for thwarting criminals using emerging technology. This thesis explores how U.S. law enforcement can leverage artificial intelligence to enhance transnational money laundering investigations. This study assessed emerging technology implementation by the foreign governments of Estonia and Dubai for best practices. Although Estonia and Dubai effectively introduced emerging technologies, Estonia’s higher level of ethical and privacy safeguards reflected its democratic values. This thesis ultimately concluded that U.S. law enforcement should incorporate a centralized digital infrastructure, use commercially available tools, and develop artificial intelligence specific to financial investigations to streamline strategies that will knock down criminal empires.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Civilian, Department of Homeland Securit
LEARNING OVER BLAMING: A NEW PARADIGM FOR POLICE ACCOUNTABILITY THROUGH SELF-REPORTING
No full textThis thesis explores the implementation of an error self-reporting system within police departments to enhance accountability and improve public trust. It examines how law enforcement agencies can address misconduct and errors more effectively by drawing on principles from high-reliability organizations (HROs) and successful self-reporting systems in other high-risk industries, such as aviation and healthcare. The research highlights the critical role of transparency and community trust in policing and argues that current punitive measures often discourage honest reporting of errors. A detailed analysis, using Bardach's Eightfold Path framework, evaluated various policy alternatives for implementing a self-reporting system, weighing their potential impact on police culture, community relations, and operational feasibility. The conclusion is that a self-reporting system with limited immunity and confidentiality offers the most balanced approach, promoting a culture of continuous improvement while maintaining accountability. This approach aims to rebuild public trust, reduce incidents of misconduct, and enhance overall public safety.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Civilian, Metropolitan Police Departmen
CLIMATE IMPACTS ON WATER INFRASTRUCTURE IN THE DOD
Get PDFDepartment of Defense (DoD) installations are vulnerable to climate change, emphasizing the need for continuous monitoring and data analytics. However, existing tools used within the DoD lack integration of climate effects with system models to quantify the impacts of climate on water infrastructure and services. This thesis addresses this gap by developing a proof-of-concept for the Climate Impacts on Water Infrastructure for the DoD (CIWI-D) tool. This research integrates climate and infrastructure data, constructs network models of water systems, and assesses the operational impacts of climate stressors with a Python-based Water Network Tool for Resilience (WNTR). Using these methods, we complete case studies of two fictitious water distribution systems, evaluating their performance under various heat-induced stress scenarios. Results show the influence of key parameters used in DoD asset management systems, water system design, and network location on climate-induced failures. Results inform the development of CIWI-D to offer targeted analysis and recommendations for DoD installations facing evolving climate challenges.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Lieutenant, United States NavyEnvironmental Science Technology Certification Program (ESTCP) 3500 Defense Pentagon, RM 5C646, Washington DC, 20301-350
IMPLEMENTATION OF OPERATIONAL AND COMPUTATIONAL SAFETY MODEL TO MITIGATE AND REDUCE INCIDENCE OF HIGHER SEVERITY EVENTS AT LAWRENCE LIVERMORE NATIONAL LABORATORY
Get PDFHigh-severity events, such as serious injuries or fatalities, pose significant risks to workers, the environment, national security, and the reputation of national research laboratories, such as Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). A case study of 1,081 injury and illness cases was performed to assess the feasibility of implementing a framework to mitigate potential serious injuries or fatalities (pSIF) at LLNL. Review of the cases data quality showed that >86% of incidents had sufficient information to adopt the framework at LLNL.Additionally, the case study reviewed institutional responses to the incidents. A computational model was developed to simulate pSIF incident distributions to deal with limitations from the case study, as well as to simulate institutional response. The findings concluded that while pSIF incidents were rare (<1% of total cases), the framework can improve organizational risk management by providing a consistent approach to incident response. It also suggests that resource allocation should focus on the highest risk areas, including noise exposure, overexertion, and repetitive motion. The computational model and framework offers a structured approach to reduce pSIF incidents, ultimately contributing to a safer research environment at LLNL. Although implementing the framework can enhance risk management, it requires commitment to quality data collection, incident classification, and integrated management systems for maximum efficacy.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Civilian, LawrenceLivermore National Security LLCLawrence Livermore National Laborator
FOSTERING INTRAPRENEURSHIP TO IMPROVE READINESS AND RETENTION: INNOVATIVE BEHAVIORS TO BOLSTER THE NAVY'S TALENT MANAGEMENT EFFORTS
Get PDFThe United States Navy (USN) is facing challenges in its continuous efforts to leverage the full creative potential of its junior workforce to drive grassroots innovation and meet operational readiness and retention goals. Despite sincere intent and encouraging rhetoric from senior leaders, the Navy is not experiencing the level of junior officer (JO) engagement within its problem-solving and innovation ecosystems needed to noticeably impact performance, readiness, and modernization objectives. Conversely, JO feedback is often bottlenecked at the tactical level within occupationally constrained designator silos commonly known as communities. This thesis explores deliberately fostering intrapreneurship among tactical-level leaders as a method to release the large pool of untapped insights and deliver them to the appropriate organizational stakeholders, improving operational readiness and creating opportunities for positive retention along with it. Furthermore, this research identifies opportunities and accompanying recommendations for actions the USN can take to generate more bottom-up innovation by analyzing synergy between intrapreneurial behaviors, the Department of Defense’s (DoD) Mission Command construct and other related doctrine. Lastly, a Prototype Knowledge Assessment Tool (PKAT) was developed to address JO professional capacity, institutional understanding, and subsequent applicability vulnerabilities.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Lieutenant, United States NavyLieutenant Commander, United States NavyLieutenant Commander, United States NavyLieutenant Commander, United States Nav
DETECTING DECEPTION: LEVERAGING WORK ASSIGNMENTS FOR FRAUD DETECTION AT USCIS
Get PDFImmigration fraud harms the integrity of and erodes confidence in the U.S. immigration system by circumventing the legal immigration process. Recent convictions for immigration fraud demonstrate the prevalence of fraud in family-based filings at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS). Existing research shows that the method of assigning work influences an employee’s skill development. This thesis investigated how work assignment method can influence an Immigration Services Officer’s (ISO) ability to detect potential fraud and which method would best detect fraud in adjudicating I-130 petitions. The thesis reviews relevant literature and applies findings to cases at the Social Security Administration (SSA) and Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to identify strengths and weaknesses of three work assignment methods: random, strategic, and hybrid. It explores the role of data analytics in fraud detection at SSA and FEMA and analyzes USCIS operations in light of the literature and cases of those agencies. Although each work assignment method has benefits and drawbacks for USCIS, the hybrid work assignment method offers the most significant benefits. Thus, it is the most beneficial for fraud detection at USCIS. To implement its use, USCIS should consider establishing a pilot program to test the hybrid work assignment method. Additionally, USCIS should consider increasing fraud training and incorporating data analytics into USCIS’ fraud detection strategy.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Civilian, Department of Homeland Securit
DIGITAL TWINNING: A WINNING MODEL FOR CIVILIAN LIFE SAFETY IN RESIDENTIAL HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS
Get PDFAlthough fire service personnel around the world have developed robust community risk reduction strategies to protect the residents they serve, fire-related injuries and fatalities are still an everyday occurrence. This thesis asks whether digital twin technology can complement legacy fire protection systems to better protect occupants in residential high-rise buildings. Literature related to technology acceptance theories is examined to assess behaviors that drive the adoption of innovations. Additionally, five previously researched case studies involving the use of digital twin technology are analyzed with a synthesis of the potential benefits in their respective smart cities. This thesis concludes that digital twin technology, operating in parallel with legacy fire protection systems, may enhance the safety of occupants in a residential high-rise building. Three recommendations are offered to further assess digital twin's overall feasibility as a technology enhancer before adopting it in high-rise buildings: conduct a second phase stakeholder analysis, followed by a third phase stakeholder analysis, and install a digital twin in two Oakland, California, high-rise residential buildings.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Civilian, Oakland Fire Departmen