ETIKONOMI
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Forecasting Indonesia\u27s Unemployment Rate with Macroeconomic & Big Data: A MIDAS Approach
No full textResearch Originality: The current model is unable to forecast the unemployment rate utilizing varying periods of predictor variables. Furthermore, the use of official statistics and big data in previous studies to forecast Indonesia\u27s unemployment rate has been limited.
Research Objectives: This study forecasts Indonesia\u27s biannual unemployment rate (UR) by utilizing monthly Google Trends Index (GTI) data, quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, and monthly inflation data.
Research Methods: The unrestricted mixed data sampling (U-MIDAS) model is applied to forecast Indonesia\u27s UR using data from the second semester of 2006 to the first semester of 2024.
Empirical Results: This study finds that the best model for predicting UR is one that utilizes a combination of big data and official statistics. Using 34 GTI keywords relevant to job seekers\u27 cultural and behavioral patterns in Indonesia, Indonesia\u27s UR in February 2024 was 4.7%.
Implications: This study demonstrates that employing GTI and macroeconomic variables for forecasting unemployment enhances predictive accuracy compared to utilizing either variable independently.
JEL Classification: C55, E24, J6
Interacting labour force and Human Capital Development Effects on Manufacturing Sector Productivity
No full textResearch Originality: The adoption of technology in the industrial world requires a high-quality workforce. This research provides a novelty by testing human capital development against the output of the manufacturing industry.Research Objectives: This study analyzes the interactive impact of the industrial labor force and human capital development on manufacturing sector output in the West African Sub-Region from 1989 to 2022.Research Methods: The study adopted an ex post facto research design. The data used for analysis was sourced from the World Development Indicator (WDI), and the Panel ARDL method was employed to investigate the interactive impact of industrial labor force and human capital development on manufacturing output..Empirical Results: The results suggest that labor force and human capital had an interactive negative, insignificant impact on manufacturing output in the short run, while in the long run, the interaction of labor force and human capital had a significant favorable influence on the manufacturing sector\u27s output. The composite human capital index had no significant impact on output in the manufacturing sector in both the short run and the long run.Implications: Policymakers should focus on developing initiatives that will enhance the labor force\u27s skill sets and align them with the needs of the manufacturing sector.JEL Classification: J21, O14, O55How to Cite:Babasanya, A. O., Okuneye, B. A., & Amaefule, J. N. (2025). Interacting Labor Force and Human Capital Development Effects on Manufacturing Sector Productivity. Etikonomi, 24(1), 221 – 232. https://doi.org/10.15408/etk.v24i1.38648
Do Macroeconomic and Green Factors Influence Stock Returns in Indonesia?
No full textResearch Originality: This study adopts a multidimensional framework that integrates environmental sustainability and macroeconomic pressures to assess stock market behavior over the period 2018 to 2022, encompassing both pre-pandemic and post-pandemic economic contexts.
Research Objectives: This research explores the impact of inflation, economic growth, green accounting, and environmental performance on stock returns of energy companies registered on IDXENERGY from 2018 to 2022.
Research Methods: This study uses panel data regression analysis based on secondary data from 33 energy sector companies over five years.
Empirical Result: Inflation has a statistically significant negative effect on stock returns, indicating that rising inflation tends to reduce investor returns in the energy sector. In contrast, economic growth, green accounting, and environmental performance do not show significant effects on stock returns, suggesting that these variables have no observable impact on firm performance in the capital market within the scope of this study.
Implications: The findings emphasize the need for enhanced green reporting standards, stronger policy incentives for sustainable practices, and increased investor awareness regarding environmental performance.
JEL Classification: E31, O47, M41, Q56, G1
Disruption or Catalyst? Foreign Banks\u27 Impact on Competition in Indonesia\u27s Islamic-Conventional Banking Ecosystem
No full textResearch Originality: This study uniquely examines the impact of foreign bank penetration on bank competition within Indonesia\u27s dual-banking system. By incorporating the moderating effect of Islamic banks, this research provides novel insights into the dynamics of bank competition in a multi-faceted financial ecosystem.Research Objectives: This study investigates the impact of foreign banks on the level of competition in Indonesia\u27s dual-banking system, encompassing both Islamic and conventional banks.Research Methods: The study employs panel data analysis of Islamic and conventional banks in Indonesia from 2011 to 2021. Bank competition and foreign bank penetration are measured using the Lerner Index and various ratios of foreign banks, respectively.Empirical Results: The findings reveal that an increase in the number of foreign banks enhances bank competition and reduces market power. However, increased foreign bank asset ownership is associated with reduced competition. While not statistically significant, Islamic banks tend supports increased competition in the banking sector.Implications: To maintain a competitive balance, regulators should focus on controlling foreign asset ownership rather than merely the number of foreign banks. Furthermore, the role of Islamic banks in fostering competition warrants consideration in policy formulation.JEL Classification: C1, E52How to Cite:Maharani, N. K., & Alwahidin. (2025). Disruption or Catalyst? Foreign Banks’ Impact on Competition in Indonesia’s Islamic Conventional Banking Ecosystem. Etikonomi, 24(1), 1 – 16. https://doi.org/10.15408/etk.v24i1.36338
Intellectual Capital and Bank Profitability Nexus: Evidence From Gulf Cooperation Council Countries
No full textResearch Originality: This article presents novel and fresh empirical evidence on the relationship between intellectual capital and bank profitability and reports the results for the whole sample as well as at country breakdown.
Research Objectives: Using a dataset of 60 banks from GCC countries between 2008 and 2022, the article investigates the association between intellectual capital and bank profitability by implementing M-VAIC.
Research Methods: We developed two models in which profitability ratios are the dependent variables and the M-VAIC components are the independent variables and ran pooled OLS and panel regressions.
Empirical Result: The study’s findings showed that while structural capital efficiency has a negative influence on bank profitability, other components have a positive impact on bank profitability. The signs and the significance levels at the country details do not show essential differences.
Implications: The study’s results will have significant implications on how bank managers and policymakers invest and manage intellectual capital. The study offered an original contribution to the literature by presenting fresh empirical evidence from GCC countries for a reasonably long period.
JEL Classification: E22, G21, O34, L2
The Role of Banking Credit and Innovation Technology in Deindustrialization in Indonesia
No full textResearch Originality: This study contributes to the literature by being the first to investigate the cause of deindustrialization from the production side, considering banking credit and innovation technology by Kaldor’s Second Law, specifically focusing on a regional level in Indonesia.Research Objectives: To investigate the impact of banking credit and innovation technology on deindustrialization on a regional level in Indonesia.Research Methods: This research uses using panel data model on 34 provinces from 2017-2022 and a Fixed Effect Model (FEM) with a Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) method, incorporating other control variables was used. Share of bank credit to the manufacturing industry is used as a proxy for bank credit, while internet usage is used as a proxy for innovation technology.Empirical Results: The results showed that deindustrialization occurs in Indonesia even at the regional level. Banking credit and innovation technology are key factors driving the increase in GVA’s share of the manufacturing industry in Indonesia. Prioritizing the quality of workers and improving international trade could also effectively increase the GVA share of the manufacturing industry.Implications: This study offered valuable insights into designing and implementing capital policy strategies and equalizing internet access as an accelerator of innovation in the context of technology improvement to increase the manufacturing industry\u27s GVA share.JEL Classification: O14, O11, R58How to Cite:Budiasih., & Eliezer, W. R. (2025). The Role of Banking Credit and Innovation Technology in Deindustrialization in Indonesia. Etikonomi, 24(1), 285 – 298. https://doi.org/10.15408/etk.v24i1.38755
Multidimensional Poverty in Indonesia: The Role of Economic, Social, Educational, and Political Factors
No full textResearch Originality: This study advances the field by employing a comprehensive, multidimensional framework that examines the synergistic interactions between economic, social, educational, and political factors. This study also provides a more nuanced and evidence-based perspective on poverty dynamics, moving beyond the oversimplified, single-dimensional analyses that have dominated prior scholarship.
Research Objectives: This study aims to examine the impact of educational participation, crime rates, unemployment, access to Islamic financing, and the democracy index on poverty levels in Indonesia.
Research Methods: Panel data from 2015 to 2022 is examined using a fixed effects model to identify the key determinants of poverty.
Empirical Results: The findings indicate that higher net enrolment rates and increased access to Islamic financing significantly contribute to poverty reduction y, while rising crime rates and unemployment are associated with increased poverty levels. Interestingly, the democracy index shows no statistically significant effect on poverty during the examined period.
Implications: The findings have significant policy relevance, emphasizing the need to enhance access to quality education, promote job creation, and expand Islamic financing as an inclusive economic tool.
JEL Classification: I32, E24, G2
Deconstructing Religiosity-Green Finance Relationship: The Role of Organizational Factors
No full textResearch originality: This study links religiosity to green finance in emerging-market banks, highlighting internal drivers, green HRM, organizational identity, and leadership over external pressures. It uniquely shows how personal beliefs shape sustainable finance through cultural and theoretical pathways.
Research objectives: The research aims to examine how religiosity affects the willingness of banks to engage in green finance, and under what conditions this relationship is strengthened.
Research methods: The research employs a quantitative survey method involving employees across both private and state-owned banking institutions within the specified province, involving a cross-section of 43 banks. Structural equation modelling is used to test the hypothesised relationships.
Empirical result: The results reveal that religiosity influences green finance indirectly through the enhancement of internal organisational capacities. Specifically, religiosity strengthens environmental values and practices within human resource systems, leadership approaches, and organisational identity, which in turn foster commitment to green financial strategies.
Implications: These findings highlight the strategic importance of cultural and leadership-based resources in promoting environmental sustainability in the banking sector.
JEL Classification: G21, Q56, M14, J53, L2
The Impact of Financial Metrics on ESG Disclosure in ASEAN Countries
No full textResearch Originality: This study breaks new ground by examining how financial metrics (ROA, ROCE, ETR, SGR, board size) influence ESG disclosure in the unique context of ASEAN.Research Objective: It investigates the relationship between financial performance and ESG disclosure levels for listed companies in Indonesia, Singapore, and Thailand.Research Methods: Utilizing an in-depth analysis of 300 annual reports over a ten-year period (2011-2020), the study reveals country-specific dynamics.Empirical Results: For instance, Indonesian companies display a weak correlation between effective tax rate (ETR) and ESG disclosure. Conversely, Singaporean companies with higher return on assets (ROA) tend to report less ESG information. Thailand exhibits a more complex interplay, where aggressive tax strategies potentially hinder positive ESG perceptions.Implications: These findings highlight the critical need for tailoring ESG disclosure strategies to each country\u27s financial performance landscape. Additionally, the importance of responsible tax practices is emphasized. This knowledge empowers companies, investors, and policymakers to develop a more targeted approach to ESG implementation across ASEAN.JEL Classification: G32, M14, Q56How to Cite:Putra, D.M. (2025). Impact of Financial Metrics on ESG Disclosure in ASEAN Countries. Etikonomi, 24(1), 85 – 96. https://doi.org/10.15408/etk.v24i1.37712
Clustering Indonesian Neobanking Users Through Extended UTAUT 3 for Retention Campaign Strategy
No full textResearch Originality: This study develops a behavior-anchored segmentation framework for Indonesian neobank users by extending the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT-3) with trust and marketplace application usage, providing deeper insights into user behavior.
Research Objectives: The research aims to identify distinct neobank user segments and key behavioral drivers to support targeted strategies in digital financial services.
Research Method: An extended UTAUT-3 model incorporating trust and marketplace usage was validated through Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). Balanced Iterative Reducing and Clustering using Hierarchies (BIRCH) clustering was applied to data from 386 active users, with segment validity confirmed using Elbow, Gap, and Silhouette methods.
Empirical Results: The results revealed that trust, habit, and marketplace usage emerged as primary drivers of engagement and user recommendations. This study identifies four user segments: transitioning explorers, urban occasionalists, rural digital enthusiasts, and cost-conscious digital natives.
Implications: Urban Occasionalists and Rural Digital Enthusiasts show strong potential for long-term growth. Targeted engagement and personalized retention strategies for these segments can enhance customer lifetime value and strengthen user advocacy.
JEL Classification: G21, M31, C3