Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan dan Pembangunan Daerah
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Impact of trade facilitation on intra-manufacturing export among ECOWAS member states
Get PDFThis study investigates the effects of trade facilitation policies on intra-manufacturing exports among ECOWAS member states. Utilizing the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) linear model, this research analyzes data from 2015–2020 for the ECOWAS member states. The findings reveal that trade facilitation policies in the ECOWAS region fall below the global average. This discrepancy is primarily due to the extensive bureaucratic processes in the region, leading to increased costs for exporting and importing goods. Consequently, there is a significant need for trade facilitation to enhance intra-manufacturing exports within ECOWAS. Based on these insights, the study recommends several policy interventions to improve trade flow and bolster intra-manufacturing exports in the ECOWAS region. These include a stronger commitment to trade agreements among ECOWAS member states, the adoption of information and communication technology (ICT) to streamline trade processes and reduce bureaucratic delays associated with document processing for exports and imports, the strengthening of institutional frameworks within the member states, and the formulation of policies aimed at increasing industrialization levels to enhance manufacturing exports throughout the ECOWAS region
Human resource development: enhancing entrepreneurial potential in MSMEs
Get PDFThis study aims to explore the role of micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in human resource development by enhancing entrepreneurial potential. Qualitative data were obtained using a descriptive exploratory approach from in-depth interviews with 41 MSME actors assisted by the Jambi City Manpower, Cooperatives, and Small and Medium Enterprises Office during managerial and technical guidance in 2023. The data were analyzed thematically and narratively to capture respondents' views and reasons. The study identifies various aspects of MSMEs, including business types, ideals, vision, mission, goals, sources of ideas, creativity and innovation, threats, strengths, weaknesses, and opportunities. It also examines the impact of education and training on human resource development and entrepreneurial potential. The findings indicate that MSMEs leverage diverse sources of ideas and exhibit significant creativity and innovation to adapt to business trends. However, further studies are needed to measure the long-term impact of human resource development. Additionally, the study calls for examining external factors such as government policies, market conditions, and technological advancements that influence human resource development and entrepreneurial potential in MSMEs
Assessing the unemployment rate as a mediator between SMEs and economic growth
No full textEconomic growth and unemployment reduction in developing countries can be strengthened by improving the business quality of SMEs. As SMEs dominate Indonesia’s industrial structure, this study examines their relationship with economic growth, with unemployment rates as a moderating variable, in West Java, Central Java, and East Java from 2015 to 2022. Using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) on 96 observations, the findings reveal that the number of SME business units has a significant negative impact on the unemployment rate, whereas total assets have a positive impact. A higher asset value enhances the capacity for modernization and digitalization, which, in turn, reduces labor absorption and potentially increases unemployment. Additionally, a decline in the unemployment rate positively influences economic growth, which is consistent with Okun’s Law, though with a relatively low magnitude. These findings highlight the need for government policies to facilitate SME business development by improving production standards, expanding access to business capital, and enhancing market reach. This approach aligns with the UMKM Naik Kelas (SME Scale-Up) program, which aims to promote sustainable SME growth and economic resilience
Human capital and gender development in economic growth: A case study of Sumatera Barat, 2010–2022
No full textThis study analyzes the impact of the Human Development Index (HDI), Gender Development Index (GDI), and unemployment rate on economic growth in Sumatra Barat from 2010 to 2022. Economic growth, measured by Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) per capita, reflects regional welfare. It is essential to understand the factors influencing it, particularly the quality of human resources and employment opportunities. According to data from BPS, economic growth in Sumatera Barat remains low compared to other provinces on the island of Sumatra. This study employs a dynamic panel data model using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) approach to address potential endogeneity issues arising from the reciprocal relationship between independent variables and economic growth. The findings indicate that HDI has a positive and significant effect on economic growth, suggesting that improvements in education, healthcare, and living standards contribute to economic expansion in Sumatera Barat. Similarly, GDI has a significant positive effect, highlighting the crucial role of gender equality in human development and driving economic growth. In contrast, the unemployment rate has a negative and significant impact, demonstrating that high unemployment hinders regional economic progress
Infrastructure and economic growth in ECOWAS member states: The Westerlund co-integration approach
Get PDFThis research explores the impact of infrastructure on member states' economic growth in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Utilizing panel secondary data sourced from the World Bank Development Indicators (WDI) and the African Infrastructure Development Index (AIDI) across all fifteen ECOWAS Member States over eighteen years, the study employs the panel Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model and the Westerlund co-integration test for analysis. The findings reveal that investments in infrastructure, improvements in the African Development Index, and enhancements in the Electricity Composite Index significantly contribute to the economic growth of ECOWAS countries. Specifically, infrastructure investment is associated with a 0.01 per cent increase in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the ECOWAS countries studied. In comparison, the African Development Index and the Electricity Composite Index are linked to increases in GDP by 0.292 per cent and 0.987 per cent, respectively, in the long term. Based on these outcomes, the study recommends that ECOWAS country authorities enhance policies to optimize government spending on infrastructure quality. Furthermore, adopting quality-enhancing and efficiency-driven financing policies in infrastructure is advocated to complement ECOWAS's ongoing infrastructural development efforts. The realization of these recommendations hinges on the availability of accurate data for informing decisions and guiding policymakers. Hence, the study underscores the need for the ECOWAS Commission to bolster its capacity for collecting reliable data on infrastructure variables and other indicators. It also proposes that future research should focus on promoting sub-regional peer-review mechanisms for infrastructure indicators among member states and establishing structures to fortify infrastructure in West Africa
Unveiling external debt dynamics: Interdependencies of macroeconomic variables in ASEAN-7
Get PDFThis study explores the interplay between external debt, infrastructure investment, epidemic response funding, net exports, and the consumer price index (CPI) in seven ASEAN countries—Indonesia, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, the Philippines, and Vietnam—during the period from 2000 to 2020. Data were derived from the World Bank, OECD, and IMF. This research uses the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) panel data approach to estimate the short-term and long-term relationships among the variables. Short-term results reveal that infrastructure investment, epidemic response funding, net exports, and the CPI do not significantly impact external debt. However, in the long-term analysis, epidemic response funding, net exports, and the CPI positively affect external debt. These findings have significant implications for policymakers in developing countries, especially within the ASEAN region
ICT expansion and human development: Empirical evidence from Indonesia
Get PDFHuman development is a central focus and objective for countries worldwide. Comprehensive human development is reflected in rising living standards and easier access to essential services like education and health. Accelerating human development requires adopting technology, particularly ICT (Information and Communication Technologies), which is increasingly utilized by societies. The main objective of this study is to estimate the impact of ICT Skills, ICT Access, domestic investment, and the democracy index on the Human Development Index (HDI) using provincial-level data in Indonesia. The study employed panel data from 34 provinces from 2016-2022. Based on the Chow and Hausman test results, the fixed effect model was the best fit compared to the common and random effect models. The findings demonstrate that ICT Skills and ICT Access significantly positively affected human development throughout the research period, with their coefficients being almost equal. This highlights the rapid advancement of ICT and its vital role in the lives of the Indonesian population. The results further revealed that democracy was insignificant, while domestic investment positively and significantly impacted human development. Based on these findings, ICT development policies are essential, particularly in investment, infrastructure improvement, and the effective implementation of ICT initiatives. The use of ICT should be tailored to each province's unique characteristics and potential to promote equality and reduce disparities. A key recommendation from this study is the adoption of ICT in societal activities to enhance equality across all regions of Indonesia
Simultaneous elections for budget efficiency: Advancing fair and inclusive democracy
No full textGeneral elections in Indonesia, a cornerstone of the country's democracy, face significant challenges in the post-COVID-19 era. This research examines the efficiency, implementation, and impact of Law Number 7 of 2017 and Law Number 10 of 2016 in the context of the 2024 simultaneous elections. The study emphasizes financing efficiency, evaluates implementation outcomes, and compares simultaneous and non-simultaneous elections. The research incorporates legal principles grounded in responsive law theory and progressive law theory and employs a descriptive-analytical and qualitative approach. Findings reveal the successful implementation of Law Number 7 of 2017 during the 2019 simultaneous elections, achieving notable efficiency in cost and time savings. However, challenges such as logistical complexities and inaccuracies in voter data management require further attention. The synergy between Law Number 10 of 2016 and Law Number 7 of 2017 provides a robust legal framework, fostering more effective and participatory general elections. The study underscores the importance of the interconnection between election laws and the administration of simultaneous elections in strengthening Indonesia’s democratic processes. Addressing existing challenges and ensuring consistency in regulatory frameworks will be crucial for enhancing the integrity and efficiency of future general elections
The impact of inflation and interest rates on global stock markets: The moderating role of consumer confidence across five continents
No full textThis study examines the impact of inflation and interest rates on global stock market index performance, with the moderating role of the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) across five countries representing different continents: the United States, the United Kingdom, China, South Africa, and Australia. These countries were selected for their distinct economic policies and significant contributions to the global economy. Using the Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) method and 2,400 monthly data observations spanning 2014 to 2023, sourced from official institutions such as central banks and financial agencies, this research provides key insights. The findings reveal that inflation positively influences index performance in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia, while it negatively impacts performance in China. Interest rates predominantly have a negative effect on index performance, except in the United Kingdom and China, where the effect is statistically insignificant. The moderation effect of the CCI varies by country, highlighting the role of unique economic contexts in shaping the relationship between inflation, interest rates, and stock market indices. This study offers valuable implications for policymakers in managing inflation and bolstering consumer confidence and provides strategic insights for investors navigating global economic dynamics
Predicting future inflation in Indonesia using Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA)
Get PDFThe features of Indonesia's inflation data, which make it extremely susceptible to shocks like those felt in 2005 and 2008, as well as extensive potential influencing factors, lead to problems in forecasting inflation. These problems include time variation in coefficients, models that can change over time, and many predictors to consider. Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) solves these problems since it has evolved coefficients and models that change over time. This study uses DMA to predict future inflation by involving eight macroeconomic indicators as exogenous variables. The results of the in-sample analysis show that six predictors are significant in forecasting inflation, with posterior inclusion probability (PIP) being above 40%. Although the remaining predictors have PIP means below 40%, they can still be considered important. The out-of-sample results suggest that DMA performs better than dynamic model selection and models that don’t include exogenous variables, such as autoregressive models. The forecast results indicate a consistent pattern over the 12 months studied. The attempt to control inflation can be achieved by prioritizing the money supply factor, which has the highest PIP value, indicating that it is the most important factor