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The Effect of Foreign Debt on The Exchange Rate and Its Impact on Monetary Policy in Indonesia
No full textThe objectives of this study are to analyze the effect of foreign debt on the exchange rate that seen from the foreign debt and the exchange rate, and add the variable of inflationary monetary policy and the interest rate of BI Rate to test its impact on monetary policy in Indonesia. The approach in this study is quantitative approach. Data that used are Time Series data from Asian Development Bank and Indonesian World Bank in 1986-2013. Variables that used are exchange rate, foreign debt, inflation and the interest rate of BI Rate. Method that used in this study is Vector Auto Regression (VAR) analysis. The stages that used in this study testing are stationary test, optimal lag test, Granger causality test, impulse response test, and variance decomposite test in Eviews 6 program. The results of Granger causality test of all variables in this study are unlikely to have a relationship and there are only two variables that give an effect.Based on the results of Granger causality, it shows that there is bidirectional between foreign debt variable that has an effect on the exchange rate in Indonesia and the exchange rate has an effect on the foreign debt in Indonesia. While the foreign debt has an effect on the interest rate of BI Rate. For the results of impulse response test show that the exchange rate variable gives the biggest respond to the shock of foreign debt variable, compared to inflation and the interest rate of BI Rate variables. The results of Variance decomposite show that the contribution which given by foreign debt variable on the exchange rate is relatively bigger compared to the contribution that given by inflation and the interest rate of BI Rate variables
Volatility and Market Integration of Spot-Forward Corn Price in Indonesia
No full textThis study aims to determine the volatility and market integration between the price of corn in the Indonesian spot market and futures market in the international market. The data used in this research is secondary data consisting of Indonesian corn spot price and corn forward price referring commodity exchange, Chicago. Data in the form of monthly time series in 2007 until 2016. ARCH / GARCH method is used to measure the volatility at spot and forward price, whereas the market integration of spot and forward corn is used Johansen Cointegration and Engel-Granger Causality method. The results show that spot and forward prices of corn occur high volatility. The best ARCH/GARCH model for spot price is GARCH (2,0) with the volatility value of 0,91 and for forward price is GARCH (2,0) with the volatility value of 1.12. It means that volatility of spot and forward influenced by the increase and fluctuations of spot and forward price two previous periods. Between the spot and forward market, there is market integration and a one-way causal relationship. The market integration indicates there is long-run relationship, while one way indicates the spot price effect on the forward price, not vice versa
Debt to Equity Ratio (DER), dan Ukuran Perusahaan yang di Mediasi Oleh Return on Assets (ROA) Terhadap Return Saham
No full textPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguji dan menganalisis pengaruh debt to equity ratio (DER), ukuran perusahaan melalui return on asset (ROA) terhadap return saham. Penelitian ini dengan hipotesis bahwa debt to equity ratio (DER), ukuran perusahaan melalui return on assset dapat mempengaruhi return saham. Sampel yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah perusahaan yang tergabung dalam Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) periode tahun 2013-2017. Jenis data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder berupa laporan keuangan yang terpublikasi, dan data tersebut dianalisis dengan menggunakan analisis regresi berganda. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukan bahwa debt to equity ratio berpengaruh negatif signifikai terhadap return on asset, sedangkan ukuran perusahaan berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap return on asset. Dan untuk variabel return saham hanya dipengaruhi oleh return on asset sedangkan debt to equity ratio dan ukuran perusahaan tidak berpengaruh terhadap return saham. Kata Kunci : Debt to Equity Ratio (DER), Ukuran Perusahaan, Return on Asset, Return Saha
Access to Microfinance Effect and Economic Welfare
No full textThe leaders of Southeast Asia countries have called for the formulation of a strategic plan to accelerate and realize the vision of doubling the financial inclusion in the ASEAN region in 2020. Regional approach for financial inclusion has been identified as one important factor for national development in many ASEAN countries. In addition, it has also become an important strategy to support the broader goals of regional economic integration as contained in the blueprint of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). The deepening of the financial sector is one of the main objectives in the AEC. It mainly affects the capital and capacity constraints on the financial system in several ASEAN countries, including Indonesia.Lembaga Perkreditan Desa or LPD is a traditional micro finance institution in Bali. It is called traditional because they operate based on local government regulation which roots from traditional village rules (namely awig-awig). Both of LPD strength and weakness lies on their limited operational areas within a traditional village as tightly regulated in awig-awig. Microfinance institutions, including the LPD, became the foundation to achieve the main goals of financial inclusion in Indonesia.This study tries to look beyond the influence of access to the LPD, through public perception point of views about distance, interest rate, and service to improve Balinese people welfare. Tests carried out using cross section OLS to retrieve data from interviews of 107 respondents who become LPD customers. The results of this study are expected to provide further description whether access to the LPD affect the increase in the welfare of society, especially access to microfinance institutions
Tingkat Kesejahteraan dan Indeks Kebahagiaan Karyawan Perbankan Karyawan Perbankan di Kota Malang dan Kota Jember
No full textEconomic growth is influenced by several factors such as welfare and happiness. The purpose of this study was to determine the level of welfare and happiness of banking employees in the city of Jember and the city of Malang. The research method used in this study is a quantitative descriptive method. The data collection method used is a questionnaire and literature study while the data analysis method used is two, namely welfare analysis and factor analysis. The results of this study are 100 employees in Malang City and Jember City which are classified as prosperous. Based on happiness index, the level of happiness of bank employee in Jember city is higher than the level of happiness of bank employee in Malang City. The value of the happiness index of bank employees in Jember city is 80,61 and the happiness index of bank employees in Malang City is 72,40.
The Determinants of Home-Based Worker: Evidence From Married Women in Indonesia
No full textA home-based worker is defined as a worker who performs to work at home or a neighbor's home. Using data from the National Labor Force Survey (Sakernas 2018), this research aims to analyze the determinants of married women becoming home-based workers. We build two models using internet access to categorize a dependent variable. Observation unit in this research is employed married women aged 15 years and over. The models in this research are estimated by multinomial logit. Independent variables that examined including socio-demographic characteristics, family characteristics, work characteristics, and regional characteristics. Our finding shows that younger women, having children under age 5, having employed household head, working on industry sector as sales and service worker, self-employed and had work training experience are more likely to be a home-based worker in both models
The Impact of Village Fund Program in Developing Physical Infrastructure: Case on Construction Value Across Provinces in Indonesia
No full textIndonesia is the largest archipelago country with over than 260 million population. Yet, its archipelagic state makes it hard for the Indonesian government to distribute its income equally, causing severe poverty in certain regions. To overcome this problem, the role of construction industry is very crucial. Many papers say construction industry plays an important role to achieve socio-economic development goals in providing shelter, physical infrastructure, employment, and higher economic growth. Knowing the importance of construction sector, especially in physical infrastructure, President of Indonesia, Joko Widodo, focuses on accelerating infrastructure development. To equally distribute the development between rural and urban areas and shorten the level of inequality, in 2015 Indonesian government made a program in a form of fiscal transfers called Village Fund program. The objective of this paper is to measure the impact of Village Fund program in developing physical infrastructure across provinces in Indonesia. This paper used panel data with Random Effect Model to analyze the marginal effect of Village Fund in construction sector. The finished construction value is used as the dependent variable. As the independent variable, this paper uses the amount of Village Fund given and Gross Domestic Regional Product (GRDP) as the control variable in 33 provinces that participated in Village Fund program during 2015 and 2016. Setting with α = 0.01, the result shows that Village Fund program has a marginal positive effect to finished construction value. Every one percentage point change in Village Fund increases the amount of construction value finished by 0.033%. For the other variable, every 1% increase in GRDP also increase the construction value by 0.41%. We hope this paper could be useful to evaluate the implementation of Village Fund and as a base for making similar policies in the future. Keywords: Village Fund, Construction Value, Infrastructure, GRDP, Random Effect Model
Pemodelan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Jawa Timur Dengan Pendekatan Ekonometrika Panel Spasial
No full textAdanya proses pembangunan di suatu wilayah menunjukkan bahwa wilayah tersebut berupaya untuk mencapai kesejahteraan masyarakatnya, indikator untuk melihat keberhasilan pembangunan suatu wilayah dapat dilihat dari laju pertumbuhan ekonominya. Adanya keterkaitan (dependensi) spasial yang saling berkaitan dapat mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi wilayah satu dengan wilayah disekitarnya, sehingga diperlukan pendekatan ekonometrika spasial yang dapat digunakan dalam analisis pemodelan pertumbuhan ekonomi antar wilayah yang berdekatan. Model spasial yang digunakan yaitu Langgrange Multiplier (LM) yang terdiri dari Spatial Autoregresive Model (SAR) dan Spatial Error Model (SEM) dengan menggunakan aplikasi Open Geoda. Pembobot spasial menggunakan Rook contiguity (persinggungan sisi). Hasil pengujian efek spasial menunjukkan model SAR yang digunakan dalam pemodelan pertumbuhan ekonomi kabupaten/kota di Jawa Timur. Analisis dari uji model terbaik juga menunjukkan bahwa model SAR lebih baik dibandingkan dengan OLS. Kriteria pemilihan model terbaik berdasarkan hasil AIC terkecil 98,7394 dan R-Squared terbesar sejumlah 0,51%. Hasil interaksi spasial kabupaten/kota di Provinsi Jawa Timur cukup tinggi yaitu sebesar 0,6180 dari rentan nilai 0 sampai dengan 1. Dampak tersebut dilihat melalui nilai intercept model sebesar 14,9219, dimana hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa aspek spasial berpengaruh terhadap kenaikan pertumbuhan ekonomi di masing-masing kabupaten/kota di Jawa Timur. Dengan variabel signifikan terhadap laju pertumbuhan ekonomi adalah pendapatan asli daerah dengan elastisitas sebesar 1,1701, belanja modal dengan elastisitas sebesar -2,7149, namun untuk variabel tenaga kerja tidak signifikan pengaruhnya terhadap laju pertumbuhan pada kabupaten/kota di Provinsi Jawa Timur
Perlambatan Pertumbuhan dan Transisi Demografi di Indonesia
No full textPerlambatan pertumbuhan muncul akibat dari fluktuasi makroekonomi dan gejala demografi Indonesia. Merosotnya perekonomian global membawa dampak pada perekonomian domestik baik bagi negara maju dan negara berkembang termasuk Indonesia. Selain itu, kondisi profil demografi Indonesia yang cenderung meningkat juga diindikasikan dapat berpengaruh pada perlambatan perekonomian Indonesia. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mencari hubungan antara variabel makroekonomi dan demografi dalam memengaruhi perlambatan ekonomi serta melihat hubungan jangka panjang profil demografi dalam meningkatkan kinerja GDP per kapita. Untuk menjawab permasalahan tersebut digunakan analisis regresi dengan metode OLS serta uji kointegrasi melalui Johansen test. Hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa variabel demografi yang menyebabkan perlambatan ekonomi Indonesia. Namun disisi lain, profil demografi Indonesia seperti dependency ratio dan life expectacy dalam jangka panjang akan berkontribusi positif terhadap perekonomian. Hasil ini mendukung proyeksi demografi Indonesia yang menunjukkan hasil bahwa dalam kurun waktu 2020-2030, Indonesia akan memperoleh bonus demografi yang nantinya akan memberikan kontribusi besar terhadap perekonomian Indonesi
Interaksi Pasar Barang dan Pasar Uang di Indonesia: Pendekatan Model Mundell-Fleming
No full textPaper ini bertujuan untuk menginvestigasi interaksi pasar barang dan pasar uang dengan pendekatan model mundel-fleming di Indonesia dalam periode 1997 – 2017 melewati tiga shock krisis keuangan yaitu krisis keuangan Asia,Krisis Subprime mortgage dan krisis utang eropa. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode kuantitatif deskriptif dengan model Threshold Autoregression (TAR) menyimpulkan bahwa di Indonesia terdapat interaksi antara pasar barang dan pasar uang