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Bias in Unit-Level Small Area Estimates of Poverty with Aggregate Data
No full textThis paper explores why small area poverty estimates from models at the household level that only use aggregate data as covariates, exhibit systematic bias. The analysis demonstrates that this bias stems from the model’s inability to capture the complete between-household variation in welfare, as they rely solely on covariates aggregated at geographic levels. Through model-based simulations, the paper shows that the bias in these models is minimized when the empirical variability of simulated welfare based on the model is closest to the true empirical variance of welfare at the area level. This finding also has implications for bias in unit-level models
Investing in People
No full textThis work was conducted at the request of the Ministry of Finance, Strategic Planning, National Development and Statistics (MFSPNDS). MFSPNDS requested the World Bank’s support to conduct a systematic review of the health sector, to take stock of its current performance in tackling the country’s major health challenges and propose policy suggestions and programs for improving its performance. A working group with members from MFSPNDS and the Ministry of Health and Medical Services (MHMS) was established to facilitate data collection and oversee progress of the review. It was agreed that the review would cover: (i) health financing, including health expenditure projections to 2030; (ii) service delivery, including a supply-side readiness assessment of services at all levels of the health system, and redevelopment options for Colonial War Memorial Hospital; (iii) human resources for health, including assessment of stock and flow as well as projections of needs and supply to 2030; and (iv) options and models for the Government of Fiji to engage private healthcare providers to improve population health outcomes
Maldives Development Update, April 2025
Get PDFIn 2024, economic growth remained robust with an estimated real GDP growth of 5.5%, primarily driven by a strong performance in tourism, which saw a 7.1% growth in the first three quarters. Tourist arrivals increased by 8.9% to a record 2.05 million. However, headline inflation surged in the last quarter, averaging 1.4% for the year, with food inflation remaining elevated at 6.6%. The fiscal deficit widened to MVR 12.7 billion (11.7% of GDP) due to increased expenditure, while revenue collection rose by 3.7%. The current account deficit (CAD) remained high, with the trade deficit widening to US832.1 million by February 2025, supported by a currency swap agreement with the Reserve Bank of India. The financial sector's exposure to sovereign and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) debt increased, while credit growth to the private sector moderated. Public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt rose to US$9.4 billion (134.2% of GDP). Medium-term growth is projected to be 5.7% in 2025, supported by increased tourist arrivals due to the completion of a new terminal at Velana International Airport. Inflation is expected to rise, potentially increasing poverty unless targeted cash transfers are introduced. The fiscal deficit is likely to remain elevated, with public debt projected to rise to 135.7% of GDP by 2027. Significant downside risks include global trade uncertainties and elevated external and fiscal vulnerabilities. Urgent fiscal consolidation and a clear financing strategy are required to reduce vulnerabilities and ease liquidity pressures
Escaping the Natural Resource Trap - Pathways to Sustainable Growth and Economic Diversification in Liberia
Get PDFLiberia is one of the poorest countries, ranking 180th out of the 190 countries in the World Bank’s development database. Based on the national poverty line, 59 percent of Liberians were poor in 2016, the latest year for which household survey data is available. According to World Bank estimations, about 6 out of 10 Liberians continue to live in poverty. Broader welfare measures tell a similar story: Liberia ranked 177th out of 193 countries on the UN Human Development Index and the UN Gender Inequality Index in 2022. Low human development is exemplified by Liberia’s score of 0.32 on the World Bank’s measure of human capital, suggesting that a newborn child will only reach 32 percent of their potential productivity as an adult under current conditions of healthcare and education. Poverty is more prevalent in rural areas, and its incidence increases with distance from the capital, Monrovia, highlighting Liberia’s severe spatial challenges. Rapid population growth, deforestation, and the accelerating impacts of climate change are degrading the country’s abundant natural capital, a dynamic which, in turn, is increasingly tied to the persistence of poverty. Pervasive food insecurity contributes to the high rate of child stunting and to malnutrition more generally. Inadequate sanitation heightens the risk of communicable disease
Does Free Sound Too Cheap? The Adverse Effect of a Randomized Text Message Campaign on Program Take-up
Get PDFThis study conducted a randomized
experiment to improve participation in a youth employment
program in Côte d'Ivoire by testing text message
outreach methods. Sending text messages highlighting that
the program was free only to eligible youth had no impact,
but messages sent to both youth and trusted contacts led to
reduced enrollment. This negative effect was smaller for
women, and 0 when their contact was also female. Qualitative
findings suggest that distrust among unfamiliar contacts
contributed to this decline. The study highlights the
importance of tailoring communication strategies in job
training programs to increase effectiveness, considering
recipients’ relationships and trust
Funding the Future - Boosting Revenues for Lasting Investments
Get PDFKazakhstan's economy is
estimated to have grown by 4.0 percent in 2024. A temporary
acceleration to 4.5–5.0 percent growth is projected in 2025,
supported by a one-off surge in oil production, export
growth, and continued fiscal stimulus. Growth is expected to
moderate post-2025 due to persistently low productivity and
declining investment, highlighting the need for
diversification and new growth levers. Inflation is easing
but remains above target, projected at 7.5–8 percent in 2025
and 6 percent in 2026. Fiscal policy remains expansionary,
with the deficit expected to remain at 3.1 percent of GDP in
2025 before narrowing to 2.7 percent in 2026. While public
debt remains manageable, rising domestic borrowing costs and
reliance on the National Oil Fund for fiscal support pose
sustainability challenges. The report identifies key
downside risks, including declining global oil demand,
prolonged budgetary expansion, and the impacts of extreme
weather events on agriculture and infrastructure. The
special topic section of the report discusses revenue
mobilization reforms. Kazakhstan’s tax revenues lag
significantly behind its peers, limiting the funding of
essential services and long-term growth opportunities. The
report outlines a comprehensive tax reform agenda to address
fiscal challenges. Proposed reforms include transitioning to
a progressive income tax system, phasing out inefficient tax
incentives, improving VAT compliance, aligning excise taxes
with environmental goals, and enhancing tax administration
Did Program Support for the Poorest Areas Work?: Evidence from Rural Viet Nam
Get PDFThis paper investigates the impact of
a large-scale poverty alleviation program targeted at the 62
poorest districts in Viet Nam. The analysis of multiple data
sets spanning the past 20 years uses a regression
discontinuity design with district fixed effects. The
findings do not reveal significant program effects on
household welfare (as measured by per capita income and
poverty) or local economic development (as measured by
nighttime light intensity and establishment of new firms).
However, the findings show that the program facilitates a
shift from farm to nonfarm employment and significantly
increases the share of nonfarm income for rural households.
A possible explanation for the positive effects on nonfarm
employment is the improved access to credit that the program
provides to participating households. The findings also show
that the program increases household access to electricity,
public transfers, educational subsidies for students
residing in the program districts, and health care
utilization, possibly through improving the availability of
commune health care centers
GWSP's contribution to Achieving Results in Nine Countries
Get PDFThe Global Water Security and
Sanitation Partnership (GWSP) was launched in 2017 as an
international partnership to support countries to meet the
targets related to water and sanitation under the
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly those of
SDG 6. GWSP is a platform for collaboration and support,
providing client countries and development partners with
global knowledge, innovations, and country-level technical
support while leveraging World Bank resources and financial
instruments. GWSP-funded knowledge and technical assistance
influence the design and implementation of government
policies and programs, as well as water sector investments
and reforms carried out by client countries with the support
of the World Bank and other partners. The GWSP Results
Framework streamlines the tracking and reporting of results
using standardized indicators grouped into three blocks. The
third block -Block C- includes qualitative and quantitative
assessments of the influence and impact of knowledge and
technical assistance on lending operations of the Global
Department for Water in nine priority countries, based on
agreed-upon indicators, at intervals over the life of the
GWSP. These countries represent the geographic and
socioeconomic diversity of GWSP’s portfolio. From fiscal
year (FY) 2018 to FY24, these countries included the Arab
Republic of Egypt, Bangladesh, Benin, Bolivia, Ethiopia,
Haiti, Pakistan, the Socialist Republic of Viet Nam, and
Uganda. In FY24, country teams completed end-of-term
monitoring forms to document results and the contributions
of GWSP-funded knowledge and technical assistance in
strengthening institutions, regulatory and policy
environments, and investments in water, sanitation, hygiene,
climate-resilient irrigation, and water resources
management. This report summarizes the results achieved as
of June 30,2024
Overview
Get PDFThe new political context emerging from the May 2024 elections provides a unique opportunity for South Africa. The alignment of economic and political incentives, in the sense that improving the economy is essential for gaining political power, offers a platform to launch a decisive transformation process, even if there is not yet an agreement on which economic reforms to implement. Such alignment was key behind the successful economic transformation of China in the early 1980s, Vietnam in the late 1980s and 1990s, Poland in the 2010s, and India in the early 2020s. Those successes were anchored on a development bargain, whereby the country’s elites shifted from protecting their own positions to gambling on a growth-based future. This report offers pragmatic policy options, tailored for South African policymakers who want to obtain short-term results, while creating momentum for structural reforms, resume growth, and improve the overall welfare of their citizens, especially the most disadvantaged
The Critical Role of Reliable and Comparable Data
Get PDFBiodiversity is essential for ecological stability, human well-being, and economic progress, providing critical ecosystem services such as clean water, food, and climate regulation. However, it faces unprecedented threats, with extinction rates accelerating to 1,000 times the natural baseline due to habitat destruction, overexploitation, pollution, invasive species, illegal trade, and climate change. Effective conservation requires urgent, coordinated global action, as ecosystems and species habitats often transcend national borders. Collaboration among governments, industries, and communities is essential to restore habitats, protect endangered species, strengthen policies, and enforce conservation measures. The challenges of biodiversity conservation are particularly acute in geopolitically sensitive and overlapping regions, including non-determined legal status territories, fragile and conflict-affected situations, and transboundary ecosystems. In these areas, effective conservation is hindered by weak policies, inconsistent enforcement, and institutional fragility. This paper addresses these challenges by providing baseline data to guide conservation strategies. Using newly developed World Bank species occurrence maps based on open-access, date-stamped records from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, the study evaluates species richness, endemism, and extinction risks across 35 non-determined legal status territories, 19 conflict-affected countries, 20 fragile states, 18 marine joint regimes, and 311 international river basins. The data sets reveal that these regions host numerous, often vulnerable, species. Biodiversity conservation emerges as a pathway for trust-building and collaboration, aligning stakeholders around shared goals such as climate resilience and sustainable livelihoods. Reliable and comparable data sets are critical for evidence-based planning, fostering dialogue and cooperation among divided groups. The estimates presented in this paper aim to support robust, data-driven strategies to safeguard biodiversity in geopolitically sensitive and overlapping regions, with far-reaching implications for global conservation and international cooperation