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Institutional Capacity for Policy Implementation: An Analytical Framework
Full text linkState capacity is an important prerequisite for policy implementation, yet at the country level it is difficult to measure, assess, and reform. This paper proposes a focus on institutional capacity: the ability of public institutions to implement the specific policy mandates for which they are responsible. Based on a review of existing literature, the paper defines the different dimensions that compose institutional capacity and groups them into two cross-cutting categories: organizational dimensions (personnel, financial resources, information systems, and management practices) and governance dimensions (transparency, independence, and accountability). The paper proposes measures for organizational and governance dimensions using existing data, shows intra-institutional variation of these measures within countries, and discusses how new data could be collected for better measurement of these concepts. Finally, the paper illustrates how the framework can be used to diagnose the sources of common problems related to weak policy implementation
Formalizing Savings
Full text linkThis paper investigates the determinants of saving behavior—both formal and informal—using individual-level data from the 2021 Global Findex database, covering more than 139,000 adults across 138 countries. The analysis employs a Heckman selection model to distinguish between the decision to save any money and the decision to save formally using a financial account. Key findings reveal that individuals in the poorest 40 percent of households, those with only primary education, and those out of the workforce are significantly less likely to save and even less likely to save formally. While women are equally likely as men to save any money, they are less likely to save formally. Country-level factors also play a critical role. Tax-incentivized savings schemes are associated with an increase in formal saving and an increase in saving overall. Deposit insurance for e-money accounts is positively correlated with both saving any money and saving formally, particularly among low-income individuals. Conversely, a higher share of government-owned bank assets is associated with lower saving rates, and Muslim-majority countries exhibit significantly lower formal saving, likely due to religious constraints on interest-bearing accounts. Policy recommendations include expanding tax-incentivized savings schemes, extending deposit insurance to digital financial services, promoting financial literacy, encouraging wage payments into accounts, reassessing the role of state-owned banks, and, where relevant, supporting Sharia-compliant financial products. Targeted interventions for women and low-income groups are essential to closing persistent gaps in financial inclusion
Disruption without Dividend? How the Digital Divide and Task Differences Split GenAI’s Global Impact
No full textThis article examines how generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) could affect labor markets globally, with particular attention to the uneven distribution of risks and opportunities between advanced and developing economies. Cross-country differences in occupational structure suggest that developing economies face lower aggregate automation exposure than advanced economies but comparable potential for task augmentation. However, disparities in digital infrastructure create an asymmetry: workers in positions vulnerable to automation typically maintain sufficient internet connectivity to experience displacement effects even in low-income settings, while those who could benefit from GenAI augmentation face substantial digital infrastructure gaps that may prevent them from realizing productivity gains. This finding suggests that developing countries may experience the disruptive effects of GenAI faster than its productivity benefits. At the same time, conventional occupational exposure measures systematically overestimate the impact of GenAI in developing countries by assuming uniform task content across economies. Using data from skills surveys, the article demonstrates that workers in developing countries perform substantially fewer non-routine analytical tasks—the primary targets of GenAI—even within occupations classified as highly exposed. These findings highlight the importance of adapting GenAI exposure measures to reflect developing countries' distance from the technology frontier
The World Bank Group in Indonesia, Fiscal Years 2013-23 : Country Program Evaluation
No full textThis Country Program Evaluation assesses the World Bank Group’s support to Indonesia between FY 2013 and FY23. The evaluation period included three country strategies: the FY13–15 Country Partnership Strategy (CPS), the FY16–20 Country Partnership Framework (CPF), and the ongoing FY21–25 CPF. Specifically, the evaluation investigates the Bank Group’s relevance, effectiveness, and coherence in four areas that are critical for the country to achieve its development vision of reaching high-income status by 2045. These areas include (i) more efficient public finances, (ii) stronger human capital, (iii) financial sector strengthening, and (iv) resilient urbanization. The evaluation findings will inform the next CPF. The report is organized into seven chapters. The remainder of chapter 1 outlines Indonesia’s development context and traces the evolution of the government’s priorities over the evaluation period. It also summarizes the evaluation’s design
and methodology. Chapter 2 presents an overview of the relevance and effectiveness of the Bank Group’s portfolio in Indonesia. Chapter 3 examines the World Bank’s contribution to fiscal management and public financial management (PFM). Chapter 4 evaluates the relevance and effectiveness of the World Bank’s support for human capital. Chapters 5 and 6 assess the Bank Group’s efforts in deepening the financial sector and developing urban resilience in the country.
Chapter 7 provides concluding remarks and draws lessons to inform the Bank Group’s future support to Indonesia
From Disparity to Equality: Strategic Targeting to Close Gender Gaps in Business Upgrading Programs
No full textBusiness upgrading programs in developing economies often generate substantial gains for male entrepreneurs but limited average impacts for women, raising concerns about both efficiency and equity. This study develops a Program Readiness Scorecard (PRS)—a transparent, scalable tool based on 10 observable factors capturing both entrepreneurial resources and capabilities—to identify those most likely to benefit from such programs. Using pooled experimental data from firms in Uganda, South Africa, and Mexico, this paper shows that without targeting, firms led by men experience large and statistically significant gains, while those led by women have near zero average returns. Targeting that screens out entrepreneurs with the lowest scores on the PRS irrespective of gender improves women’s outcomes but leaves a significant gap. Applying a higher PRS threshold—specifically, restricting eligibility to women in the top quartile of the PRS distribution—closes the gap entirely, as women with high scores achieve returns that are statistically indistinguishable from men’s. These results are robust to multiple sensitivity checks. The findings have two broad policy implications. First, targeting based on the PRS can strengthen program outcomes for women-led firms while also identifying the cohort in need of remedial support prior to joining high-value initiatives. Second, beyond gender-focused programs, the PRS can be applied in a wider range of settings where scarce program resources must be directed toward enterprises with the greatest potential for sustained growth
Pre-Insolvency Negotiations Through Online Dispute Resolution Platforms
No full textThis Note discussess the usefulness of Online Dispute Resolution (“ODR”) systems in pre-insolvency situations. Traditionally used in bilateral contractual disputes, ODR also presents prospects for expanding access to justice in the insolvency field. Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (“MSMEs”) face particular challenges with regard to engaging in pre-insolvency procedures: often lacking financial literacy, facing bankruptcy-associated stigma, or having limited access to traditional proceedings due to geographical constraints. ODR may offer solutions for each of these problems. However, challenges remain in adopting ODR systems in an insolvency context. ODR has typically been used in two-party contractual disputes rather than complex multi-party insolvency negotiations, and many jurisdictions face a “digital divide” where segments of the population may be unable to access ODR mechanisms. This Note analyses these challenges and highlights several other issues that require further research
A Steady Hand for Wobbly Steps: Why New Electricity Markets Need Vesting Contracts
No full textNew electricity markets carry inherent risks of volatility and market power abuse - teething troubles that can derail reform. Vesting contracts are transitional financial hedges imposed before privatization to stabilize generator revenues and protect retailers - and, ultimately, consumers - from price shocks. By mimicking the natural hedge of a vertically integrated utility, or the hedging portfolio of a mature, liquid market, these contracts provide a steadying hand during the shift to competition. Their successful implementation, however, requires precise modeling of price and volume to discipline market behavior without sacrificing short-term economic efficiency or stifling long-term investment
Socioeconomic Data on Fisheries Workers: Availability and Strategies for Better Data Quality
Full text linkThis technical note examines the current landscape and key challenges in collecting high-quality socioeconomic data on fisheries workers and their households. Recognizing the critical role of fisheries and aquaculture in global food security, nutrition, and employment, the note highlights data gaps that hinder effective policy making, vulnerability assessment, and the design of social protection programs. Drawing on the Blue Social Protection Handbook: Protecting People, Fish and Food, the note reviews existing data sources, such as administrative records, household and labor force surveys, and ecological datasets, and assesses their respective strengths and limitations. It also provides guidance for collecting new quantitative and qualitative data for fisheries workers, drawing on recent case studies from Costa Rica and Kenya. The note concludes with recommendations to strengthen data systematization, improve interoperability, and close knowledge gaps, ultimately supporting more inclusive and responsive social protection and sustainable fisheries management
Evaluation of the International Development Association Country Allocation System (Approach Paper)
Full text linkThe International Development Association (IDA) is the largest source of long-term concessional financing for the world’s poorest countries. Since 1960, IDA has
delivered more than US$600 billion in grants and credits at low interest rates with long-term maturities, helping client countries address complex development challenges, including economic shocks, natural disasters, conflict, and climate change. Given the attractive terms of IDA financing and significant development needs,
client demand for IDA resources greatly surpasses available funds. This demand necessitates the careful and strategic allocation of limited resources, and each of the 78 IDA-eligible countries receives a designated financing envelope. The aim of the evaluation is to assess whether the IDA Country Allocations are achieving IDA’s intended purposes. The evaluation will outline the overall design and key features of the IDA Country Allocations and will assess how they have worked in practice
The Human Capital Index Plus 2026: Findings Brief
Full text linkThe HCI+ measures how effectively a country builds human capital, tracking the likelihood that children today will grow into healthy, educated, and productive adults. It integrates measures from three dimensions
of human capital—health, education, and employment—into one index using evidence-based weights. The index ranges from 0–325. Units on this scale correspond to percentage increases in labor earnings