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Deep and Shallow Decarbonization in Supply Chains
Full text linkThis paper examines how suppliers adjust their decarbonization choices when major customers obtain validated emission-reduction targets. Using global supplier-customer links matched to firm-level emissions and project-level data from voluntary carbon registries, the analysis shows that downstream climate pressure elicits both real and symbolic responses, but in systematically different ways across suppliers. On average, treated suppliers become more likely to adopt climate targets of their own. High-emission suppliers subsequently reduce their emission intensity relative to comparable firms, indicating meaningful operational adjustments. Low-emission suppliers, by contrast, do not further reduce emissions; instead, they expand their use of carbon credits, sharply increasing offset intensity as a lower-cost alternative to additional physical abatement. These offsets disproportionately originate from lower-rated projects, suggesting that increased demand does not translate into pressure for higher-quality credits. Overall, downstream climate commitments induce a sorting in decarbonization strategies: high-emission suppliers undertake substantive reductions, while low-emission suppliers rely more heavily on market-based mechanisms to meet customer expectations
An Assessment of Private Sector Engagement in Long‑Term Care for the Elderly in North Macedonia
No full textNorth Macedonia is undergoing a rapid demographic transition characterized by population ageing and a sharp rise in long-term care (LTC) needs. While the total population is projected to decline, the number of older people requiring care is expected to increase substantially over the coming decades, placing growing pressure on families, public finances, and service delivery systems. In response, the government has expanded social and health-related LTC services and promoted aging in place; however, significant service gaps, fragmentation, and coordination challenges between the health and social protection systems persist. Against this backdrop, the private sector has become an increasingly important actor in LTC provision. This assessment examines the current contribution and future potential of private sector engagement in North Macedonia’s LTC system using the Mixed Systems Framework, which analyzes service provision and utilization within the broader enabling environment of regulation, financing, and governance. The findings show that private providers play a dominant role across key LTC sub-markets, particularly in residential care, while non-profit organizations are central to publicly funded home and day care services. Nonetheless, private sector participation is constrained by regulatory rigidity, high administrative burdens, limited financial incentives, heavy reliance on out-of-pocket payments, and weak integration between health and social care mandates. The report proposes a set of policy actions to strengthen a mixed LTC system, enhance coordination across sectors, and enable more effective private sector participation, with the aim of improving access, continuity, and quality of care for North Macedonia’s ageing population
Performance-based Contracts for Road Rehabilitation and Maintenance in the State of Bahia
No full textOver recent decades, studies comparing performance based contracts (PBCs) with traditional road management have struggled to draw robust conclusions due to data limitations, with much of the global evidence remaining qualitative. Brazil’s experience offers a valuable case study: building on earlier World Bank analysis of federal PBCs, this study evaluates two generations of PBCs implemented in the State of Bahia between 2009 and 2023, systematically comparing their costs and road conditions with those of conventional contracts using a consistent analytical framework. While the analysis relies on the assumption that PBCs and traditional contracts are broadly comparable—an assumption supported by practitioner experience in Bahia, where PBCs replaced conventional contracts regardless of initial conditions—the results are compelling. After one five year PBC cycle, rehabilitation and maintenance costs fell by 40–41 percent while achieving equal or better road conditions, and after two consecutive cycles, cost reductions approached 60 percent. These outcomes reinforce earlier findings that PBCs enable more tailored rehabilitation solutions and more proactive maintenance, delivering improved road management at lower cost
Electrolyzers for Hydrogen Production: Technical and Economic Characteristics
No full textThis report is a state-of-the-art overview of electrolyzer technologies and suppliers. It is written with project developers, investors, and policy makers in mind, the very ones evaluating and facilitating progress toward the final investment decision (FID). The analysis suggests that no single best electrolyzer technology exists. Technology choice must consider end-use application and power supply characteristics, aspects that are further elaborated in this report. Prepared under the 10 GW Lighthouse Initiative in support of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s Breakthrough Agenda, the analysis draws on interviews with more than 50 original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and project developers. These interviews offer new insights that may diverge, at times, from conventional assumptions found in academic literature or social media. Much of this reporting divergence reflects the rapid innovation and lack of harmonized global data.Este informe es una descripción general de vanguardia de las tecnologías y los proveedores de electrolizadores. Se redacta pensando en los desarrolladores de proyectos, los inversionistas y los responsables de formular políticas, que son precisamente los que evalúan y facilitan el avance hacia la decisión final sobre la inversión (FID). El análisis sugiere que no existe una única tecnología de electrolizadores óptima. La elección de la tecnología debe tener en cuenta las características del uso final y de la fuente de alimentación, aspectos que se explican con mayor detalle en el presente informe. Preparado en el marco de la Iniciativa Faro de 10 GW en apoyo de la Agenda de Avances de la Convención Marco de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Cambio Climático, el análisis se basa en entrevistas con más de 50 fabricantes de equipos originales (OEM) y desarrolladores de proyectos. Estas entrevistas ofrecen nuevas perspectivas que, a veces, pueden divergir de las suposiciones convencionales que se encuentran en la literatura académica o las redes sociales. Gran parte de esta divergencia en los informes refleja la rápida innovación y la falta de datos mundiales armonizados
Plan Nacer at 20 : Legacy, Lessons, and the Road Ahead
No full textThis Knowledge Brief examines the legacy of Plan Nacer, twenty years after its inception in 2004. Specifically, it explains the key challenges facing Argentina's health system and the innovative features of the Plan Nacer model. It then traces the progressive development of provincial public health insurance schemes under Plan Nacer and its successor, the SUMAR Program, in terms of geographic coverage, target populations, benefit packages, and service delivery strategies. It reflects on the strategic pillars that supported their successful implementation as well as the main implementation challenges. Finally, it summarizes the main outcomes, the challenges still ahead, and lessons learned after two decades of implementation
Do State SME Programs Work? Evidence from Loan Subsidies and Credit Guarantees in Kazakhstan
No full textThis paper evaluates the employment and sales effects of two widely used financial support instruments for small and medium-sized enterprises, interest rate subsidies and credit guarantees, using administrative program data from Kazakhstan matched to the universe of firms. Utilizing staggered intervention rollouts and a difference-in-differences design, the analysis reveals significant differences across program designs and local labor market conditions. Interest rate subsidies, despite their large fiscal costs, fail to improve firm performance: beneficiary firms experience a 10 percent decline in employment and no significant increase in sales. Fully subsidized credit guarantees show no discernible effects on sales or employment. By contrast, a market-aligned, fee-based partial credit guarantee that ensures lender and borrower risk-sharing increases employment by 24 percent and sales by 21 percent, with particularly stronger effects among women-led and formally incorporated businesses. These employment gains are substantially larger in regions with higher pre-program unemployment, suggesting that well-designed credit guarantees are more likely to generate net job creation in labor markets with greater slack, rather than merely reallocating workers across firms. Overall, the findings underscore the pivotal role of incentive-compatible program design and local labor market conditions in determining the effectiveness of financial policies for small and medium-sized enterprises
Is Place-Based Green Industrial Policy Effective? Evidence from the Inflation Reduction Act
No full textIs place-based green industrial policy effective? This paper examines the Inflation Reduction Act’s Energy Community provisions, which provide spatially targeted incentives for renewable energy investment. Using a difference-in-differences design with investment and job vacancy data, it shows that the probability of solar investment increases by 0.14 percentage points in targeted areas, equivalent to a 144% increase relative to its counterfactual level. Wind investment shows no response. Solar employment gains are modest and wind employment is unaffected. These findings suggest place-based incentives can stimulate green investment in designated locations, but may be less effective at generating local jobs
Rooftop Solar Energy Potential in Low- and Middle-Income Countries
No full textThis note serves as a foundational resource for exploring the dynamics and potential of addressing urban challenges in low- and middle-income countries (L&MICs) through rooftop solar PV adoption. It outlines the critical decision-making factors necessary for understanding the contexts in which rooftop solar is most effective, including various use cases, business models, funding mechanisms, and policy considerations. Additionally, it provides a compilation of tools to assist in assessing rooftop potential and to guide implementation strategies. This note does not aim to be a step-by-step technical guide to solar project implementation. Rather, its primary objective is to assist governments, utilities, policymakers, and urban planners in comprehensively considering the potential and increasing demand for rooftop solar PV, thereby facilitating informed decision-making in the transition to sustainable urban energy solutions. The note is structured into five sections: introduction; Solar energy as a low-cost resource; rooftop solar energy: Benefits and limitations; specific use cases for low- and middle-income countries; policy incentives and business models; and tools to help evaluate rooftop solar potential
Toward a Green Taxonomy in Armenia: A Working Paper
No full textThe World Bank Group supports the Ministry of Economy of Armenia in developing a green taxonomy (GT) as a key step toward a sound system of identifying, selecting, and financing green and sustainable development projects and actions, and as an essential milestone toward establishing an architecture for green investment and finance in the country. This working paper presents the objectives, key principles, and overall approach to developing and taking first steps toward operationalizing the GT in Armenia, elaborated through a broad consultation process under local ownership and building on the existing set of national and sectoral strategies and international obligations of the country. Briefly outlining the context for GT development in Armenia, it presents the rationale behind policy choices already made and the GT development process led by the Ministry of Economy and supported by a working group of local technical experts, as well as its key result— the first version of the GT adopted in Armenia.6 Further, the paper identifies expected benefits for each group of potential users and recommends enabling policy measures to operationalize the GT. It also focuses on the implementation challenge in a broader context of transition to a green and circular economy model, and associated policy choices yet to be made, discussing available solutions for key implementation issues. The paper also provides limited general observations and preliminary recommendations on key issues and next steps; however, elaborating implementation details, including verification rules and procedures, was out of its scope
The World Bank Group in Ethiopia, Fiscal Years 2013– 23: Country Program Evaluation
Full text linkThis Country Program Evaluation reviews the World Bank Group’s engagement in Ethiopia during FY2013–FY2023 across three distinct periods: rapid growth with rising macroeconomic imbalances and political unrest (FY13–FY18); government-led openings to economic reform (FY19–FY20); and conflict and crisis that disrupted reform momentum (FY21–FY23). The evaluation finds a resilient country program that achieved important outcomes in climate resilience, agricultural productivity, and sustainable land management, while adapting instruments and partnerships to shifting risks. Alignment with government evolved—from divergent diagnoses of macroeconomic challenges in the first period, to greater convergence on private sector and macroeconomic policy reforms in the second, and to risk mitigation amid conflict. The Bank Group adopted pragmatic collaboration on mutually agreeable areas and rapidly supported reform openings, including private sector initiatives, but some transformative reforms did not materialize. Efforts to operate through third-party implementation in Tigray faced effectiveness constraints, and risk engagement was weaker in transformational areas lacking consensus. The following lessons were identified: (i) The World Bank’s engagement in Ethiopia sometimes prioritized maintaining dialogue over openly advocating for sensitive but transformative reforms, limiting public discussion and visibility of key economic analyses; going forward, it should better balance discreet negotiations with transparent policy discourse and proactive risk management to advance critical reforms and achieve lasting impact. (ii) Conducting regular strategy and program reviews and actively managing risks can create opportunities for strategic corrections and adaptation, particularly during times of portfolio expansion and emerging economic challenges and conflict. (iii) Adapting Bank Group programs to evolving conflict and fragility requires candid, risk-informed assessments and robust, timely monitoring and evaluation—beyond limited third party mechanisms—to ensure support remains aligned with reaching the most vulnerable populations. (iv) The Bank Group should align its financing instruments and operations with countries’ macroeconomic realities—such as exchange rate misalignment, financial repression, and debt sustainability—by candidly assessing risks and sequencing reforms so programs (including DPOs and PforRs) remain consistent, sustainable, and not undermined by unresolved imbalances