International Journal on Advanced Science, Engineering and Information Technology
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2006 research outputs found
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Forecasting Mortality Trend of Indonesian Old Aged Population with Bayesian Method
Get PDFFrom around the nineteenth until the beginning of the twenty-first century, mortality rates show a declining trend. However, recent data on the United States population shows that the rate of decline started to slow down in the 2010s. Insurance companies need to be prepared in both ways: either mortality rates continue to decline, or there will be a turning point, and mortality rates start to increase. In this paper, we aim to get the whole picture of the mortality trend of Indonesian males, detect the possibility of a turning point in the mortality rates, and forecast mortality rates in the future. To reach this aim, we propose adjustments to the Makeham mortality model by including period and cohort information of the population via quadratic function. We also propose using the Bayesian method to estimate the parameters for the Indonesian old-aged males' population, where some adjustments were made in determining the priors, and the estimates were sampled from the posterior distribution using the Gibbs sampling algorithm. We found that our forecasting accuracy is satisfactory by considering the mean absolute percentage error values and coefficient of determination (R2). We found that mortality rates are declining in the long term, but the probability of a turning point in the future is statistically significant. We identified two risks, longevity risk because of more centenarians in the future and mortality risk before their children complete compulsory education
Employing Several Methods to Estimate the Generalized Liu Parameter in Multiple Linear Regression Model
Get PDFMultiple linear interferences are a fundamental obstacle in many standard models. This problem appears as a result of linear relationships between two explanatory variables or more. Simulation results show that the generalized Liu regression model was the best and that the contraction parameter proposed was more efficient than the methods presented. As the error variance increases, the value (MSE) increases. When this problem exists in the data, the estimator of the ordinary least squares method will fail because one of the basic assumptions of the method has not been fulfilled. The normal least squares, which state that there is no linear correlation between the explanatory variables, will not get an estimator with the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE) feature. The least-squares regression method and the generalized Liu regression method were compared by taking several methods for the generalized Liu parameters and selecting the best contraction parameter for the Liu regression model. The study aims to address the problem of multiple linear interferences by using the general Liu estimator and making a comparison between the methods for estimating the Liu parameter, where several methods were presented, and the best method for estimating the Liu parameter was chosen according to the standard of the sum of error squares as well as a comparison between these methods and the conventional method. Simulation results showed that the generalized Liu coefficient estimate was the best for having the lowest values (MSE) and that the best shrinkage parameter is (G4), the work-based approach
Graduating Mortality Rates by Mixture of Pareto, Loglogistic, and Two Weibull Distributions using Bayesian Method
Get PDFMortality rates are important in conducting the pricing and valuation of life insurance policies. Raw values are usually wiggly to plot, and practitioners often graduate them to obtain smoothness. Current mortality models have problems related to the goodness of fit, interpretability, and usability without implementing other actuarial assumptions for fractional ages. This study proposes a mixture of Pareto, log-logistic, and two Weibull distributions with eleven parameters to graduate mortality rates. Lifespan covered are whole life, including childhood, adolescence, senescence, and the late elderly's phase. We adjusted the parameterization to improve the ease of model's interpretability right after obtaining the value of estimates. Prior distributions of the parameters and sampling model form for the data are also proposed to estimate the parameters' value using the Bayesian method with Gibbs sampling. High values of coefficient of determination produced by model fit into several data support the graphical evidence to show the model's goodness of fit and best fit occurs for the life table of Israeli males in 1987. Gelman-Rubin statistic is also very close to one and shows fast convergence in estimating the parameters. Based on the results, obtaining the best and worst estimates of newborn survival probabilities is possible. We also showed that this model could be implemented on annual and abridged mortality rates
MT-Forward Algorithm for Prediction of Project Categories Based on Selection of Mutants
Get PDFMutation testing is an effective technique for errors. Although effective, mutation testing has the main limitation that it is awfully expensive because it requires a series of tests on each mutant. Therefore, many researchers have focused on presenting various techniques to reduce the cost of mutation testing. In this study, the MT-Forward algorithm was developed. The concept of MT-Forward is mutation testing that connects the selection and prediction methods. As a result of the selection, the mutant operator can make a more efficient selection of the number of mutants obtained. The shrinkage of the selected mutants was from 1,019 live mutants to 749 live mutants as a priority. There are 15 features used in this study. The required features are obtained from the Locmetrix Test, Coverage Test, and Mutation Testing. The accuracy value of each method is almost the same, which distinguishes this study is the selection of important operators who prioritize improvement programs without reducing the level of accuracy. Where the PMS Method uses 43 Mutant Operators, PMT Method 22 Mutant Operators, while MT-Forward uses 7 mutant operators as priority mutant operators. The method used to evaluate the performance of the algorithm is 5-fold cross-validation. The accuracy of each method is PMS 57.14%, PMT Method 57.14%, and MT-Forward is 95.00%. MT-Forward states that combining mutant selection techniques and project category prediction is important for fixing faults
The Impact of Perceived Security and Perceived Trust on the Use of m-Payment Applications in Saudi Arabia
Get PDFa significant technological revolution is currently occurring, with intense competition between companies to deliver their services via emerging technologies. In Saudi Arabia, mobile payment applications have become more important due to the increasing number of users. By filling in the gaps in the Saudi m-payment setting, this work contributes to the theory. It contributes to practice by giving service providers a clear image of the effects Perceived Security and Perceived Trust have on m-payment apps, which is necessary for them to execute their services successfully and effectively. Therefore, this study aims to measure the impact of Perceived Security and Perceived Trust on the use of mobile payment applications. The SEM technique was used to analyze the data. The results revealed that the proposed model is an excellent fit and that the instrument is reliable in the Saudi m-payment context. The SEM results indicated a significant path between (Technical Protection, Transactional Procedures, and Security Statements in m-payment) and (the perceived trust in and perceived security of m-payment applications). It also revealed no significant path between Perceived Security and Trust in m-payment applications. Further, it showed a significant path between (Perceived Security and Perceived Trust) and (the use of the m-payment application). Trust (PT) in m-payment applications will increase the early adoption of these applications. Therefore, the service providers must create and develop secure and trustworthy m-payment applications; otherwise, people will not use them
The Development of Structured Inquiry Based Module on Chemistry Learning: Its Impact on Students’ Mental Models
Get PDFMole concept is an essential part of chemistry learning and has been the prerequisite to learning other chemistry concepts. The learning source has not yet completely connected the three representations levels. The inability to connect the three levels of representations might affect students' learning outcomes and mental models. This study aims to determine the effect of structured inquiry-based modules on students' mental models of the mole concept. The design of a study is Randomized Control Group Postest Only Design. There were 141 students from two Senior High Schools in Padang recruited as the samples of the study. The instruments are two-tier mental diagnostic tests and semi-structured interviews. The model category of students' mental model on mole concept in experimental group I demonstrates that the level target was 34.29%, Intermediate 3 was 60%, and Intermediate 2 was 5.71%. Control group I shows that the target level was 28,57%, Intermediate 3 was 45.71%, and Intermediate 2 was 25.71%. Meanwhile,experimental group 2 shows that the level target was 22.86%, Intermediate 3 was 71.43%, and Intermediate 2 was 5.71%. Control group II had the following categories, the level target was 14.29%, Intermediate 3 was 62.86%, and Intermediate 2 was 22.86%. The result of the t-test on hypotheses reveals that the mental model of the mole concept in the experimental group was higher than the control group of both schools. Hence, it can be said that the module affects students' mental models of mole concepts in both schools
The Effect of Auxin and Cytokinin on Black Orchid Hybrid (Coelogyne pandurata Lindley) in Vitro
Get PDFThe Orchid is an ornamental plant with high economic value due to the emergence of unique varieties. These varieties are produced from conventional breeding methods of crossing and selection. Meanwhile, the propagation of orchids through in vivo hatcheries is constrained because the seeds are too small to contain the endosperm. Tissue culture is an alternative for the propagation of orchids Efforts to propagate orchids through tissue culture is carried out by adding Growth Regulatory Substances such as auxins groups, namely NAA, IBA, IAA, and cytokinin groups, namely BA, BAP, kinetin, and TDZ to MS media, to enable the plants to take up adequate nutrients for growth. Therefore, this study aims to determine the effect of various concentrations of NAA and BA on the best ½ MS media for the growth of orchid subcultures. A completely randomized design pattern (CRD) of 2 factors with 12 treatment combinations and four replications were used, totaling 48 experimental units. The results showed that the addition of 1ppm NAA had the highest number of roots and length, while the addition of BA at 3ppm had the highest height, and the combination of 1ppm NAA and BA 3ppm treatment produced the highest number of leaves (42 sheets) and shoots. Based on the results, the addition of NAA above 3ppm followed by BA at 6ppm can produce more leaves and shoots, while NAA above 3ppm can produce higher plant height
Computer Science
Get PDFPossible for science itself, conceptually, to have and will understand differently, let alone science also seen as technology, such as computer science. After all, science and technology are viewpoints diverse by either individual, community, or social. Generally, it depends on socioeconomic capabilities. So it is with computer science has become a phenomenon and fashionable, where based on the stream of documents, various issues arise in either its theory or implementation, adapting different communities, or designing curriculum holds in the education system. Generally, there are gaps between rich and poor, masculine and feminine, and basic sciences, engineering, and social sciences in accessing and using computer science. In particular, there have been various developments in hardware, software, and brain-ware from computer science in the application. There are recurring problems shortly, in the same or different places, both in developed and technologically lagging countries. Although computer science is still new, it has provided various innovations through research, which is proven by many documents. Therefore, following the growth of computer science - documents in the reputable indexed database, Scopus - there are clues for showing the trends. That is, dividing documents into three-time sessions: sloping, increasing and decreasing. That is by using a growth graphic. Then equip it with some parameters: topics and the weights from hit counts of databases. It gives the meaning as an interpretation to support the reviews. Therefore, this paper will provide a commentary related to that growth. It is for showing that despite the spread of studies, at the last time-session, the issues were always present simultaneously at the same time in accumulation. That is for describing a study title of computer science about what the world already has, going, and will understand about computer science. It is a view regarding its philosophy, basic science, applications, and technology as concepts and solutions that make computer science the primary foundation for skills and professions in the 21st century through the education system. Therefore, other scientific fields such as informatics, computer engineering, information science, information technology, and data science, which are at the crossroads of computer science, are also scientific fields that raise different issues
Importance of Infill Masonry Walls in Improving the Seismic Response of Reinforced Concrete Buildings
Get PDFThe treatment of masonry infill walls as non-structural elements in the design of reinforced concrete buildings has been refuted by the losses and damage recorded when these buildings were exposed to seismic loads. Between these walls, there is a type widely used in reinforced concrete buildings in Algeria. This article aims mainly to highlight the role of the infill masonry walls in improving the seismic response of reinforced concrete buildings to resist seismic loads. To demonstrate the above role, we have analyzed several models of two-dimensional frames of a multi-storey building located in a high seismic site, according to the classification of the current Algerian seismic code, with double-leaf hollow brick masonry, which is the most used infill material in Algeria. This analysis is based on the response spectrum method using the finite element software ETABS, taking into account the most important requirements of the current Algerian seismic code. We used the parameters of period, base shear, maximum displacement, and stiffness to evaluate the ability of these frames to respond to seismic loading; we analyzed several models in terms of the number of storeys. After analyzing all the models, we compared the results obtained, and then we were able to define this role and see what contribution these walls can make to the analytical aspect. Finally, we were able to know the positive role that these walls can play in improving the seismic performance of this type of building
Performance of Cement Mortar Containing Micro and Ultrafine Metakaolin Binders
Get PDFResearch into the usage of locally available construction material is essential and beneficial in ensuring a cost-effective construction project. One of the natural resources that be used as supplementary cementitious material is metakaolin. This research aims to investigate the performance of mortar reinforced with micro- and ultrafine metakaolin based on compressive strength and water absorption tests. Locally sourced metakaolin was mixed in cement mortar after calcined at 800ï‚°C with a variation amount of 0%, 5%, and 10% by wt. The tests were conducted on the 50mmx50mmx50mm cube specimens after water curing at 7 and 28 days, following the ASTM-standards. Results show that specimens containing 10% of micro- and ultrafine-metakaolin (MK-10 and UM-10) exhibited the highest compressive strength and better water-resistance characteristics when compared to control mortar. In this case, the addition of 10% ultrafine metakaolin (UM-10) reached the highest compressive strength value with approximately 121% and 100% higher than the compressive strength of control mortar on the 7th and 28th day, respectively. Additionally, the water absorption of UM-10 at 28 days was found to be 86% and 30% lower than PCC and MK-10, respectively. Furthermore, X-Ray Diffraction (XRD) and Thermogravimetric graphs of pastes with micro- and ultrafine-metakaolin indicate a reduction of CH; therefore, the production of more CSH gel. The densification of cement paste with ultrafine-metakaolin is also confirmed by nitrogen adsorption analysis indicating ultrafine-metakaolin's inert filler effect in forming a denser matrix