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Umwelterklärung ... / Staatliche Betriebsgesellschaft für Umwelt und Landwirtschaft, Freistaat Sachsen
No full textApplied Time Series-Based Load Forecasting and Backcasting: A Comparative Study
No full textThis master's thesis investigates applied time series methods for short-term load forecasting and backcasting in electric power systems, using the GEFCom2012 load forecasting dataset. Motivated by the critical role of accurate load forecasting in maintaining grid stability, optimizing resource allocation, and supporting transportation infrastructure reliant on reliable electricity, the study addresses challenges in high-frequency load data under realistic constraints like limited training periods and data scarcity. The primary objective is to compare classical time series models—such as exponential smoothing, harmonic regression, piecewise linear regression, seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA), and SARIMA with exogenous variables (SARIMAX)—against naïve baseline and competition benchmark to identify efficient approaches that achieve at least 30% error reduction relative to competition benchmarks, while emphasizing model simplicity for practical deployment.:Chapter 1: Introduction
1.1 Background
1.2 Project’s Goal: Gefcom 2012 Competition
Chapter 2: Related Works
2.1 Electricity load forecasting: a systematic review
2.2 Few-Shot Load Forecasting Under Data Scarcity in Smart Grids: A Meta-Learning Approach
2.3 IISE PG&E Energy Analytics Challenge 2025: Hourly-Binned Regression Models Beat Transformers in Load Forecasting
2.4 Electric load forecasting with recency effect: A big data approach
Chapter 3: Fundamentals
3.1 Principal Component Analysis (PCA)
3.2 Root Mean Squared Error
3.3 Time Series Decomposition
3.4 Exponential Smoothing
3.5 Time Series Regression
3.6 ACFs and PACFs
3.7 Stationarity and Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test
3.8 Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMAX)
3.9 Auto ARIMA and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)
Chapter 4: Methodology & Results
4.1 Gefcom 2012 Load Forecasting Dataset
4.2 Exploratory Data Analysis
4.3 Model Evaluation and Comparison
Chapter 5: Conclusion & Limitations
References
Appendi
The Rowman & Littlefield Handbook of Peace and Conflict Studies: Perspectives from the Global South
No full textMusiktheorie ist Musiktheorie ist Musiktheorie
No full textMusic theory has acquired a unique position in between many fields, most notably composition, historical and systematic musicology and music pedagogy. Motivated by the topic “music theory and interdisciplinarity”, this essay explores the fields spanned by today’s music theory in seven short chapters. The first chapter describes changes of the discipline in German-speaking countries since the 1960s and its development from a simple synonym of practical harmony and a propedeutic means for music analysis to a postmodern, rich and scholarly ambitous field that can hardly be reduced to a common denominator. In the second chapter the author, drawing on Fritjof Capra’s The Tao of Physics, argues that music theory should not limit itself to purely “technical” issues, but must also address emotional or expectational realms of musical meaning. The third chapter further explores this point by discussing the opposition between musical theory and practice, suggesting that music theory indeed has the potential to let these two poles stimulate one another. The same is true for the often debated divide between “artistic” and “scholarly” aspects of music theory, explored in the fourth chapter: They are not mutually exclusive, but rather always have influenced each other, as evidenced by eighteenth-century treatises. Exchange with related disciplines such as music psychology has increased since the 1960s, as chapter five summarizes, although the relationship between music theory and musicology sometimes remains problematic. In the sixth chapter, a short analytical approach to four examples from the standard repertoire (Schubert, Bach, Brahms, Mozart) attempt to demonstrate the potential of specifically music-theoretical viewpoints. The final section advocates the strengthening of a specific profile for music theory: The liberation from dogmatic thought and systematic rigour should not lead us to overstretch music-theoretical questions
Zur Aktualität der Musiktheorie Ernst Kurths
No full textErnst Kurth’s music theory is grounded on the proposition, most prominently developed in his study Die Romantische Harmonik und ihre Krise in Wagners “Tristan” [1920], that sound is a reverberation of powerful forces that circulate in the inaudible. According to Kurth, music is a living entity which must be conceived of as hierarchically superior to single tones. Many of his contemporaries were fascinated by these ideas, and although Kurth’s concepts were not discussed on a large scale after 1945, his theoretical framework arguably can provide today appropriate means to describe transitions and relations of sound in post-tonal music. In this article, repercussions of Kurth’s ideas are uncovered in the theoretical writings of Theodor W. Adorno, especially where they allude to Arnold Schönberg’s idea of a “drive force of sounds” [Triebleben der Klänge], and in new French music after 1970 (mainly in aesthetics and works of Gérard Grisey), where the metaphorical idea of “forces” within sound and the intention to “make the inaudible audible” result in gestalt-derived musical structures with clear affinites to Kurth’s energetics. Although Kurth’s objective to discern “invariants” of musical listening has met with legitimate scepticism, a closer re-reading of his texts might provide fresh impulses to tackle the key problem of the relationship between history, perception and structure in twentieth-century music and music theory
Die Verzeitlichung des musikalischen Wissens um 1800: Von der Taxonomie der Klänge zum tonalen Bewusstsein
No full textKant’s verdict that music, as a transitory art form, is incapable of adequately occupying the mind, and Hegel’s definition of music as the language of subjective inwardness (Innerlichkeit) and consciousness exemplify the process of re-evaluation of music in philosophical discourse at the end of the 18th century and in the early 19th century. This corresponds to a paradigm shift in European cultural history which is described respectively as “Temporalisierung des Wissens” (Reinhart Koselleck), “ästhetische Wende” (Hans Robert Jauß), “historicité des êtres” (Michel Foucault) or “Krise des hermeneutischen Feldes” (Hans Ulrich Gumbrecht). In music-theoretical discourse, the hypothesis of a temporalization of knowledge is a topic that seems to correspond to the classic research fields of Foucault, Wolf Lepenies and Koselleck. According to Foucault, the order of representation is based on the transparent relationship between the poles of object and representation. In the tradition of the thorough-bass treatises of the late 17th and 18th century, the so-called règle de l’octave establishes a clear relation between the bass notes and the chords which are built on them. For this purpose, the règle provides a taxonomic order of chords on the basis of their structure, assigning them to corresponding grades of the major and minor scale. Toward the end of the 18th century, the idea that tonality is a “feeling”, that is, a product of the consciousness, appears in music-theoretic treatises. Here, the transparency of the representational order is questioned by the activation of a perceiving subject. This confirms the thesis that both the order of representation and the episteme of historicity can be traced in the development of music-theoretic discourse from the practice of thorough-bass to the harmonic theories of the 19th century. Such an analysis, however, should not be confused with a history of music theory or with a history of ideas. Rather, it shows how epistemological premises influence ideas and cultures
Computational Approaches to the Analysis of Political Narratives
No full textNarratives are a central device through which humans make sense of and interact with their environment. They are interpretive lenses through which experiences and complex phenomena are simplified and endowed with meaning. In the political context, they are used to affirm and persuade others of one's ideological positions. In light of the contemporary rise in populist rhetoric, the importance of understanding narratives becomes increasingly evident, in particular to better explain democracy-endangering phenomena like polarization and issue alignment. Meanwhile, the rise of digital trace data allows for a large-scale analysis of political narratives that circulate in the public sphere. This requires robust conceptual and computational frameworks, which are currently lacking.
The present thesis fills this gap by introducing an operationalization of the concept of narrative that combines computational distant reading with hermeneutical close reading in a framework we call guided close reading. Even though political narratives may not always be explicitly stated in their entirety, textual corpora are full of narrative signals. These signals consist of events, the participating actors, their relationships, and their implied goals and motives. We propose a framework to extract these signals from text using semantic parsing, and systematically re-assemble them as networks in order to make sense of the underlying narratives.
This approach is demonstrated using two case studies. First, we analyze the identity-shaping narrative of self-proclaimed climate change skeptics on Reddit. The analysis reveals how the community's identity is narrated through the antagonization of a multi-faceted out-group made of climate science, mainstream media and the political establishment, thereby revealing how climate change skepticism inserts itself into a larger narrative around the loss of individual freedom and conservative values.
In a second case study, we investigate the role of narratives in polarization and issue alignment, i.e. the correlation of opinions across issues. On a large corpus of trending topics on Twitter/X, we first show network-structural evidence for ideological polarization and issue alignment across a variety of salient issues such as Covid, Russia's attack on Ukraine, or climate change. In particular, we observe that two types of power users – influencers and multipliers – play a central role in driving this polarization. Analyzing the narratives co-constructed through the tweets reveals the central fault lines in the polarized debates, and more generally offers insights into the different interpretive lenses through which the opposing groups observe political reality.
These findings showcase the methodological power of the narrative lens for the analysis of digital traces and are a first approach to developing a framework to enable such analyses at the intersection of distant and close reading.:Introduction
1 Conceptual Foundations
2 Extracting Narrative Signals from Text: A Network-Based Approach
3 Narratives of Group Identity: Climate Change Skeptics on Reddit
4 Narratives and Opinions: Polarization and Issue Alignment on Twitter/X
Discussion and Conclusion
References
AppendixNarrative erfüllen wichtige kognitive Funktionen in der menschlichen Wahrnehmung. Sie sind interpretative Linsen, durch die Erfahrungen und komplexe Phänomene vereinfacht und bedeutungsvoll gemacht werden. Im politischen Kontext können sie benutzt werden, um Meinungen und ideologische Positionen zu festigen und andere von diesen zu überzeugen. Angesichts des aktuellen Anstiegs populistischer Rhetorik spielen Narrative eine immer zentralere Rolle, um demokratiegefährdende Phänomene wie Polarisierung zu beschreiben. Gleichzeitig erlaubt die schiere Menge an digitalen Daten großflächige Analysen politischer Narrative, die in der Öffentlichkeit zirkulieren. Diese Analyse erfordert robuste Methoden, sowohl auf der konzeptionellen als auch auf der maschinellen Ebene.
Die vorliegende Arbeit füllt diese Lücke, indem sie eine Operationalisierung des Narrativ-Konzepts darlegt, welche maschinelles distant reading mit hermeneutischem close reading in einem Framework verbindet, das wir guided close reading nennen. Obwohl politische Narrative oft nicht in ihrer Gesamtheit ausgedrückt werden, finden sich in Textcorpora häufig Narrativsignale. Diese Signale bestehen aus Ereignissen und Akteuren, deren Relationen, implizierte Ziele und Motive. Die Methode besteht aus einer systematischen Extraktion dieser Signale durch automatisierte semantische Textanalyse sowie einer anschließenden Aufbereitung dieser Signale als Netzwerke zur Analyse der darunterliegenden Narrative.
Dieser Ansatz wird anhand zweier Fallstudien demonstriert. Zunächst analysieren wir identitätsstiftende Narrative von Klimawandelskeptikern auf dem sozialen Medium Reddit. Die Analyse zeigt, wie diese Gruppe ihre Identität durch ein Narrativ erzeugt, in dem Klimawissenschaft, traditionelle Medien und Politik antagonisiert werden. Zudem zeigt sich auf, wie sich das klimawandelskeptische Narrativ in ein übergeordnetes Narrativ über den Verlust individueller Freiheiten und konservativer Werte einfügt.
Die zweite Studie erforscht die Rolle von Narrativen in themenübergreifenden Polarisierungsdynamiken. Die strukturelle Analyse eines großen Korpus deutscher Tweets zeigt netzwerkstrukturelle Hinweise, die auf eine starke ideologische Polarisierung hindeuten, insbesondere auf eine themenübergreifende Ausrichtung der Meinungsgruppen im Sinne starker Korrelationen von Meinungen zu verschiedenen Themen wie Covid, Russlands Angriffskrieg in der Ukraine oder dem Klimawandel. Wir beobachten zudem, dass zwei Typen von hochaktiven Benutzern -- Influencer und Multiplier -- eine zentrale Rolle spielen. Eine Analyse der Narrative, die in den ideologischen Camps zirkulieren, deutet auf unterschiedliche interpretative Linsen hin, durch die politische Ereignisse interpretiert werden.
Diese Befunde demonstrieren die methodologische Stärke des Narrativ-Ansatzes zur Analyse digitaler Daten und sind ein erster Schritt zur Entwicklung eines Rahmenkonzepts, das solche Analysen an der Schnittstelle zwischen distant und close reading ermöglicht.:Introduction
1 Conceptual Foundations
2 Extracting Narrative Signals from Text: A Network-Based Approach
3 Narratives of Group Identity: Climate Change Skeptics on Reddit
4 Narratives and Opinions: Polarization and Issue Alignment on Twitter/X
Discussion and Conclusion
References
AppendixLes récits sont un outil cognitif essentiel par lequel l'humain interagit et fait sens de son environnement. Ils sont médiateurs d'expériences et permettent de simplifier la complexité d'expériences et de faits politiques. Dans ce contexte, ils peuvent être utilisés comme outil de persuasion afin de propager des positionnements idéologiques. Notamment dans le climat actuel de rhétorique populiste, l'importance de mieux comprendre les mécanismes autour des récits politiques semble d'autant plus urgente, en particulier pour l'analyse de la polarisation d'opinions. Entretemps, l'essor des traces numériques peut permettre des analyses de grande échelle de récits politiques circulant dans l'espace public. Ce type d'analyses demande des méthodes robustes sur le plan conceptuel et computationnel.
Cette thèse remplit ce besoin en introduisant une operationnalisation du concept de récit qui combine lecture distante et lecture proche dans un cadre que nous appelons guided close reading. Même si les récits politiques ne sont pas toujours explicitement évoqués dans les traces numériques, nous trouvons des signaux de ces récits dans les corpus textuels. Ces signaux consistent d'évènements, d'acteurs, de leurs relations, et de leurs objectifs. Nous extrayons ces signaux grâce à des méthodes de parsing sémantique et les rassemblons ensuite dans des réseaux actantiels qui permettent d'analyser les récits sous-jacents.
Cette approche est démontrée à travers deux cas d'étude. Le premier analyse les récits autour du climatoscepticisme sur la plateforme Reddit. L'analyse révèle comment l'identité de cette communauté est construite grâce à un récit antagonisant la science du climat, les médias et la politique. Ce récit s'insère dans un récit plus large autour d'une perte de valeurs traditionnelles et de libertés individuelles.
Le deuxième cas d'étude présente une analyse du rôle de récits dans des dynamiques de polarisation d'opinion en ligne. Dans un large corpus de tweets, nous montrons par l'analyse de réseaux retweet que la twittersphère allemande est fortement polarisée à travers différents sujets politiques comme le Covid, l'invasion de l'Ukraine par la Russie, et le changement climatique. Nous montrons que deux types d'utilisateurs -- influenceurs et multiplicateurs -- jouent un rôle décisif dans ces dynamiques de polarisation. L'analyse des récits circulant dans les groupes d'opinion révèle les points de conflit, et montre comment les mêmes faits politiques sont interprétées de façon différente.
Ces résultats démontrent l'apport méthodologique de l'analyse de récits pour l'analyse de traces numériques. Cette thèse est un premier pas vers le développement de méthodes robustes d'analyse à l'intersection de lecture distante et lecture proche.:Introduction
1 Conceptual Foundations
2 Extracting Narrative Signals from Text: A Network-Based Approach
3 Narratives of Group Identity: Climate Change Skeptics on Reddit
4 Narratives and Opinions: Polarization and Issue Alignment on Twitter/X
Discussion and Conclusion
References
Appendi
Ergebnisse der Umfrage 2024 zu Verbreitung und Eindämmung von Kreuzkräutern in Sachsen & Ergebnisse des Monitorings 2024 zur Verbreitung von Frühlingskreuzkraut im Südosten des Landkreises Nordsachsen und in der Lausitz
No full textDer Bericht richtet sich an Landwirte, Fachberater und die breite Öffentlichkeit. Er entstand in Zusammenarbeit des LfULG (Referat 73 Pflanzenschutz & FBZ/ISS) und des Kompetenzzentrums für Nachhaltige Landwirtschaft. Die Ergebnisse des Monitorings und der Umfrage zum Auftreten giftiger Kreuzkräuter zeigen, dass im Süden Sachsens das Jakobskreuzkraut und im Norden sowie Osten das Frühlingskreuzkraut dominieren. Besonders betroffen sind Brachen, Blühflächen, extensives Grünland und lückige Bestände von Ackerfutter. Mechanische Verfahren zur Regulierung von Frühlingskreuzkraut wie Mulchen und Mähen wirkten unzureichend. In Grünland und Futterflächen war chemische Bekämpfung effektiv. Eine gute fachliche Praxis mit einer auf die Kultur abgestimmten Düngung ist entscheidend zur Erhaltung gesunder konkurrenzstarker Bestände. Mit einer Nachsaat werden Bestandslücken geschlossen und die Etablierung von Kreuzkräutern kann vermieden werden.
Redaktionsschluss: 30.09.202
Model of Inspiring Media
No full textScholars have increasingly explored the ways that media content can touch, move, and inspire audiences, leading to numerous
beneficial outcomes including increased feelings of connectedness to and heightened motivations for doing good for others. Although this line
of inquiry is relatively new, sufficient evidence and patterns of results have emerged such that a clearer picture of the inspiring media
experience is coming into focus. This article has two primary goals. First, we seek to synthesize the existing research into a working and
evolving model of inspiring media experiences reflecting five interrelated and symbiotic elements: exposure, message factors, responses,
outcomes, and personal/situational factors. The model also identifies theoretical mechanisms underlying the previously observed positive
effects. Secondly, the article explores situations in which, and precipitating factors present, when these hoped-for outcomes either fail to
materialize or result in negative or maladaptive responses and outcomes. Ultimately, the model is proposed as a heuristic roadmap for future
scholarship and as an invitation for critique and collaboration in the emerging field of positive media psychology
Denken und Hören in der Musik der Gegenwart: Podiumsdiskussion mit Clemens Gadenstätter, Dieter Mack und Markus Neuwirth, Leitung: Andreas Dorschel
No full textThe panel discussion focusses on thinking and listening in the context of contemporary music, connecting to the overall topic of the Graz congress, “music theory and interdisciplinarity”, as well as to the conceptualization of listening in music-theoretical approaches informed by cognitive sciences. Andreas Dorschel summarizes the history of interdisciplinarity and transdisciplinarity in the humanities and traces its origins to the founding of the Centre for Contemporary Cultural Studies at the University of Birmingham in 1964. More recently, it seems that tendencies of “redisciplinarisation” can be observed and that music theory is also affected by this trend, as it tends to differentiate into diverse sub-fields such as the history of music theory, “historically informed” practical composition, pedagogical music theory and systematic-speculative music theory. In the contemporary arts, however, transdisciplinarity continues to provide a highly influential model. Several examples from twentieth-century music are discussed that incorporate “theories” into the musical fabric, among them Helmut Lachenmann’s Salut für Caudwell, John Cage’s Lecture about Nothing, Morton Feldman’s Elemental Procedures and Gérard Grisey’s L’Icône Paradoxale. In such works, the relationship between musical theory, political theory and compositional structure often is left intentionally ambiguous. The second part of the discussion focusses on theories of listening with cognitive music theories and Lachenmann’s aesthetics providing two main references. Cognitive music theories tend to limit themselves to structural aspects, often guided by the intention to connect to computer sciences and informatics, although the distinction between “extra-opus” and “intra-opus” knowledge, for example, in fact requires the consideration of complex socio-historical contexts. Cognitive frameworks therefore seem to be largely inadequate to grasp prominent modes of listening that have evolved in contemporary music. A highly influential model has been formulated by Lachenmann as the distinction between Hinhören (hearing) and Zuhören (listening): While listening to music generally does not challenge listening habits and the music tends to immerse the listener in a magical sphere, Lachenmann’s aesthetics aims to breach these habits and enter the domain of existential hearing, thus enabling “liberated perception”. Dorschel connects this distinction to Schopenhauer’s philosophy of visual perception (“Spähen” [peering] vs. “Anschauen” [perceiving]), Helga de la Motte to Theodor Lipps’ idea of “Einfühlung” which has been translated as “flow”. Further modes of listening discussed include Peter Sloterdijk’s deep psychological interpretation of listening as the search for prenatal sounds and his idea of a “sonorous cogito”, Dieter Mack’s aim to trigger curiosity by both building upon and breaching listening habits and Clemens Gadenstätter’s utopian concept of entering unknown territories of listening during the compositional process, transcending the “state of listening” [“Hörstand”] of both the composer and the listener