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Stochastic comparisons of stratied sampling techniques for some Monte Carlo estimators
We compare estimators of the (essential) supremum and the integral of a function "f" defined on a measurable space when "f" may be observed at a sample of points in its domain, possibly with error. The estimators compared vary in their levels of stratification of the domain, with the result that more refined stratification is better with respect to dierent criteria. The emphasis is on criteria related to stochastic orders. For example, rather than compare estimators of the integral of "f" by their variances (for unbiased estimators), or mean square error, we attempt the stronger comparison of convex order when possible. For the supremum the criterion is based on the stochastic order of estimators.
For some of the results no regularity assumptions for "f" are needed, while for others we assume that "f" is monotone on an appropriate domain. Along the way we prove convex order inequalities that are of interest "per se".We compare estimators of the (essential) supremum and the integral of a function "f" defined on a measurable space when "f" may be observed at a sample of points in its domain, possibly with error. The estimators compared vary in their levels of stratification of the domain, with the result that more refined stratification is better with respect to dierent criteria. The emphasis is on criteria related to stochastic orders. For example, rather than compare estimators of the integral of "f" by their variances (for unbiased estimators), or mean square error, we attempt the stronger comparison of convex order when possible. For the supremum the criterion is based on the stochastic order of estimators.
For some of the results no regularity assumptions for "f" are needed, while for others we assume that "f" is monotone on an appropriate domain. Along the way we prove convex order inequalities that are of interest "per se".Non-Refereed Working Papers / of national relevance onl
Myopic, Naive, Resolute or Sophisticated? A study of how people take dynamic decisions
Potentially dynamically-inconsistent individuals create particular problems for economics, as their behaviour depends upon whether and how they attempt to resolve
their potential inconsistency. This paper reports on the results of a new experiment designed to help us distinguish between the different types that may exist. We classify
people into four types: myopic, naive, resolute and sophisticated. We implement a new and simple experimental design in which subjects are asked to take two sequential
decisions (interspersed by a random move by Nature) concerning the allocation of a given sum of money. The resulting data enables us to classify the subjects. We find
that the majority are resolute, a significant minority are sophisticated and rather few are naive or myopic.Potentially dynamically-inconsistent individuals create particular problems for economics, as their behaviour depends upon whether and how they attempt to resolve
their potential inconsistency. This paper reports on the results of a new experiment designed to help us distinguish between the different types that may exist. We classify
people into four types: myopic, naive, resolute and sophisticated. We implement a new and simple experimental design in which subjects are asked to take two sequential
decisions (interspersed by a random move by Nature) concerning the allocation of a given sum of money. The resulting data enables us to classify the subjects. We find
that the majority are resolute, a significant minority are sophisticated and rather few are naive or myopic.Non-Refereed Working Papers / of national relevance onl
On Robust Asymmetric Equilibria in Asymmetric R&D-Driven Growth Economies
In an R&D-driven growth model with asymmetric fundamentals the steady state equilibrium R&D investments are industry-specific and they are such that R&D returns are equalized across industries. Return equalization, however, makes investors indifferent as to where to target research and, hence, the problem of allocation of R&D investments across industries is indeterminate. Agents' indifference creates an ambiguous investment scenario. We assume that agents hold "ambiguous" beliefs on the per-industry profitability of their R&D investments. Investors' aversion towards ambiguity (in the sense of Gilboa-Schmeidler, 1989) eliminates the indeterminacy of the R&D investment problem. In particular, we prove that the asymmetric return-equalizing equilibrium is robust against a however small degree of investors' aversion to ambiguity.In an R&D-driven growth model with asymmetric fundamentals the steady state equilibrium R&D investments are industry-specific and they are such that R&D returns are equalized across industries. Return equalization, however, makes investors indifferent as to where to target research and, hence, the problem of allocation of R&D investments across industries is indeterminate. Agents' indifference creates an ambiguous investment scenario. We assume that agents hold "ambiguous" beliefs on the per-industry profitability of their R&D investments. Investors' aversion towards ambiguity (in the sense of Gilboa-Schmeidler, 1989) eliminates the indeterminacy of the R&D investment problem. In particular, we prove that the asymmetric return-equalizing equilibrium is robust against a however small degree of investors' aversion to ambiguity.Non-Refereed Working Papers / of national relevance onl
Firms' Relative Sensitivity to Aggregate Shocks and the Dynamics of Gross Job Flows
We propose a measure for the importance of aggregate shocks for fluctuations in job flows at the firm level. Using data for the Portuguese economy, we find that large and old firms exhibit higher relative sensitivity to aggregate shocks and have a disproportional influence over the dynamics of aggregate job reallocation. In the overall economy, since large and old firms reallocate jobs less procyclically than small and young firms, job reallocation is less procyclical than if firm size and age classes were equally sensitive to aggregate shocks. A similar result applies in the manufacturing and the transportation and public utilities sectors. However, in the services and retail trade sectors the reallocation patterns are more similar across firm size and age, likely reflecting the expansion of existing and the creation of new industries. We conclude that large and old firms seem relatively more important to assess the state of the business cycle.We propose a measure for the importance of aggregate shocks for fluctuations in job flows at the firm level. Using data for the Portuguese economy, we find that large and old firms exhibit higher relative sensitivity to aggregate shocks and have a disproportional influence over the dynamics of aggregate job reallocation. In the overall economy, since large and old firms reallocate jobs less procyclically than small and young firms, job reallocation is less procyclical than if firm size and age classes were equally sensitive to aggregate shocks. A similar result applies in the manufacturing and the transportation and public utilities sectors. However, in the services and retail trade sectors the reallocation patterns are more similar across firm size and age, likely reflecting the expansion of existing and the creation of new industries. We conclude that large and old firms seem relatively more important to assess the state of the business cycle.Refereed Working Papers / of international relevanc
I principi e la disciplina delle prove nell'arbitrato
The author analyzes the main principles of arbitration and evidence, trying to answer the question if arbitrators are or not bound by formal rules of evidence, written for the
ordinary procedure, if the parties does not provide they are bound by civil procedure rules, as they can do in force of art. 816 bis c.p.c.. Then, the second question is, in case arbitrators are bound by law or by a parties’ choice, if these rules are or not compatible with arbitration. For doing that, the author analyzes preliminarily if civil procedure rules represents a default regulation for arbitration, concluding they are not. Then he shows how, also if civil procedure rules are not a default regulation, parties and arbitrators are bound by public order rules.
So the author analyzes the relationship between evidence law and public order rules (chap. 2), in particular describing this link regarding the right of defence and the judge’s duty of impartiality. Connected to this last principle is the rule providing that the judge cannot use his personal knowledge to decide the case. The conclusion for the appurtenance to the public order of the process regards also the burden of proof, in the limits described and the relevancy of the proof. The last chapter regards the direct analysis of the described principles and the other
main Italian rules of evidence in arbitration, with the conclusion that, also considering the comparison with the American legal system, except for the described primarily
principles, Italian arbitrators, like American ones, are not bound by formal rules of evidence. The author also take note of the doctrine and of the case law regarding the said
subject, and the last part of the dissertation regards the analysis of the compatibility with the arbitration process of formal ordinary rules, in case their application is asked
by the parties or choose by the arbitrators. The description of the compatibility problems show how the freedom of proof, as to the previous analysis, can overcome those problems.The author analyzes the main principles of arbitration and evidence, trying to answer the question if arbitrators are or not bound by formal rules of evidence, written for the
ordinary procedure, if the parties does not provide they are bound by civil procedure rules, as they can do in force of art. 816 bis c.p.c.. Then, the second question is, in case arbitrators are bound by law or by a parties’ choice, if these rules are or not compatible with arbitration. For doing that, the author analyzes preliminarily if civil procedure rules represents a default regulation for arbitration, concluding they are not. Then he shows how, also if civil procedure rules are not a default regulation, parties and arbitrators are bound by public order rules.
So the author analyzes the relationship between evidence law and public order rules (chap. 2), in particular describing this link regarding the right of defence and the judge’s duty of impartiality. Connected to this last principle is the rule providing that the judge cannot use his personal knowledge to decide the case. The conclusion for the appurtenance to the public order of the process regards also the burden of proof, in the limits described and the relevancy of the proof. The last chapter regards the direct analysis of the described principles and the other
main Italian rules of evidence in arbitration, with the conclusion that, also considering the comparison with the American legal system, except for the described primarily
principles, Italian arbitrators, like American ones, are not bound by formal rules of evidence. The author also take note of the doctrine and of the case law regarding the said
subject, and the last part of the dissertation regards the analysis of the compatibility with the arbitration process of formal ordinary rules, in case their application is asked
by the parties or choose by the arbitrators. The description of the compatibility problems show how the freedom of proof, as to the previous analysis, can overcome those problems.LUISS PhD Thesi
An Innovative Model of Trans-national Learning Environment for European Senior Civil Servants - Organizational Aspects and Governance
The purpose of the study will be to investigate the benefits of the introduction of e-learning and of a specific online environment in the training process of European civil servants. It describes the final results and the organisational impact of a first pilot training course combining 24 hours of e-learning and 27 hours (one week) of in-class courses. For each module, the e-learning preparation provided general training contents to enhance participants background necessary for in-class sessions. The project implemented a pilot to demonstrate the effectiveness of the overall system (applications, contents and organizational aspects), to promote the use of e-learning in the EU Public Administration field. After one year, the project concluded its pilot phase and the results will be analyzed. With a view to stimulating co-operation and the exchange of best practices in Europe, its purpose is to build and test an innovative model of trans-national networking, thanks to the active involvement of European schools and institutes of Public Administration.The purpose of the study will be to investigate the benefits of the introduction of e-learning and of a specific online environment in the training process of European civil servants. It describes the final results and the organisational impact of a first pilot training course combining 24 hours of e-learning and 27 hours (one week) of in-class courses. For each module, the e-learning preparation provided general training contents to enhance participants background necessary for in-class sessions. The project implemented a pilot to demonstrate the effectiveness of the overall system (applications, contents and organizational aspects), to promote the use of e-learning in the EU Public Administration field. After one year, the project concluded its pilot phase and the results will be analyzed. With a view to stimulating co-operation and the exchange of best practices in Europe, its purpose is to build and test an innovative model of trans-national networking, thanks to the active involvement of European schools and institutes of Public Administration.Invited Submission
Commercial outer space activities
The history of the Law of the space. Commercial space actions under the conditions of the corpus iuris spatialis. The Law of space, private enterprise and private property. Communications via satellite. Space transportation. Intellectual property rights and outer space activities. Commercialization of outer space and insurances.The history of the Law of the space. Commercial space actions under the conditions of the corpus iuris spatialis. The Law of space, private enterprise and private property. Communications via satellite. Space transportation. Intellectual property rights and outer space activities. Commercialization of outer space and insurances.LUISS PhD Thesi
The project of political inclusion of cosmopolitan democracy: democracy and human beings in global governance
The sovereign state as the centre of political power. The Westphalia System. Enlightenment and post-Enlightenment Thought. Twentieth-century International Political Theory. Self-Determination and Non-intervention. From the world of states to the citizens of the world. Inclusion and world arrangement: steps forward and failures. Something goes wrong in the current system of global governance: the democratic deficit. Recent failures in the global governance system: concentrated power and wide-spread suffering. Cosmopolitan Democracy and the question of inclusion and exclusion. The project of Cosmopolitan Democracy: interrelated levels of governance and the world constitution.The sovereign state as the centre of political power. The Westphalia System. Enlightenment and post-Enlightenment Thought. Twentieth-century International Political Theory. Self-Determination and Non-intervention. From the world of states to the citizens of the world. Inclusion and world arrangement: steps forward and failures. Something goes wrong in the current system of global governance: the democratic deficit. Recent failures in the global governance system: concentrated power and wide-spread suffering. Cosmopolitan Democracy and the question of inclusion and exclusion. The project of Cosmopolitan Democracy: interrelated levels of governance and the world constitution.LUISS PhD Thesi