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The decline of manufacturing employment and the rise of the far-right in Austria
Full text linkIn recent decades, right-wing populist parties have experienced increased electoral success in many Western democracies. This rise of the far-right, which is strongly built on the support of the working class, coincides with a sharp decline of the manufacturing sector. This paper analyzes the contribution of this manufacturing decline to the rise of the Austrian far-right. Overall, the decline in manufacturing employment has strongly contributed to this rightward shift in the political landscape, with the manufacturing decline explaining around one-third of the observed increase in far-right vote-shares between 1995 and 2019. Regarding the influences of the forces underlying the manufacturing decline, namely international trade and automation technologies, suggests that both forces contributed in roughly equal parts to this development
Inflation forecasting in turbulent times
Full text linkIn the recent years many countries were hit by a series of macroeconomic shocks, most notably as a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion in Ukraine, raising inflation rates to multi-decade highs and suspending well-documented macroeconomic relationships. To capture these tail events, we propose a mixed-frequency Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model with Student t-distributed innovations or with stochastic volatility. Whereas inflation, industrial production, as well as oil and gas prices are available at monthly frequencies, real gross domestic product (GDP) is observed at a quarterly frequency. Thus, we apply a mixed-frequency setup using the forward-filtering–backward-sampling algorithm to generate monthly real GDP growth rates. We forecast inflation in those euro area countries that extensively import energy from Russia and therefore have been heavily exposed to the recent oil and gas price shocks. To measure the forecast performance of the mixed-frequency BVAR model, we compare our inflation forecasts with those generated by a battery of competing inflation forecasting models. The proposed BVAR models dominate the competition for all countries in terms of the log predictive density score
Trust in Science for Policy Nexus. Workshop report, “Trust in Science for Policy”, 12-13 September 2024, Ispra Italy
Full text linkAn international comparison of graduate outcome survey instruments: a critical reflection
Full text linkAs national budgets shrink and the debate over the role of higher education intensifies, there is increased interest in the ways in which universities not only educate students but prepare them for the labour market. Underpinning this discussion is often the data that arises from national or international graduate outcomes surveys, which speak to both the performance of specific universities and the system at large. In this paper, we explore the differences in three graduate outcome instruments from Australia, the UK, and Europe. In doing so, we seek to highlight the unique approach that each instrument takes towards the measurement of graduate outcomes and how these design choices represent what aspects are deemed important in each context. Through our research, we hope to inform future discussions over the various approaches to measure graduate outcomes and illuminate the methodological assumptions that accompany these choices
Chancen und Wege: Wie die soziale Herkunft den Übertritt an die Hochschule in Österreich beeinflusst
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Nature Posters Enhance Subjective but not Objective Cleanness in Public Housing: Evidence from a Field Experiment
Full text linkLittering has negative effects on the environment and is seen as a sign of social disorder. A previous field experiment in public housing buildings showed that implicit posters using eyes and nature posters were more effective in reducing litter than explicit posters using norms and financial costs. The aim of the present field experiment was to test the effects of the nature poster against a control group. We assessed “objective” (based on ratings of photos) and “subjective” cleanness (based on residents’ reports) and explored the role of connectedness to nature. Results from 182 waste disposal areas and 739 residents show that nature posters did not enhance objective cleanness, but did enhance subjective cleanness after one month. This effect was partly accounted for by feelings of connectedness to nature in residents. Also, objective ratings indicated greater cleanness compared to subjective cleanness ratings. We conclude that nature posters had little impact on objective cleanness but enhanced subjective experiences of cleanness, which can be an important driving force for feelings of social order and comfort
Economic impact of labor productivity losses induced by heat stress: an agent-based macroeconomic approach
Full text linkAgainst the backdrop of rising temperatures, this paper analyzes how prolonged heat affects labor productivity and the corresponding macroeconomic outcomes, using Austria as a case study. While previous research primarily focused on specific industries or used industry aggregates, this study also considers inter-industrial economic connections. We assess the macroeconomic effects of an increase in seasonal heat stress triggered by climate change with an emphasis on (1) industry-specific work intensity and (2) the vulnerability to heat-induced impairments resulting in an industry-specific loss of labor productivity. To account for indirect and non-linear economic relationships, we apply an agent-based model of the Austrian economy, which translates heat-induced productivity losses into economy-wide effects via shocks to industry-related input-output structures on the level of economic agents. The findings highlight how in the scenario with the highest temperature increase, the largest average loss in real GDP amounts to 0.7% in the third year compared to the baseline scenario. The largest aggregate effect is found for investments in dwellings. In line with existing literature, industries most affected directly are those that perform intense work in the sun, such as agriculture and construction. Our methodological approach, model, and the corresponding EU data sources can serve as a blueprint for further comparative research
Dealing with radiation risks in systemic cancer treatment: Perspectives of practitioners and patients in French hospitals
Full text linkSystemic radionuclide therapy (SRT) using substances such as 177Lu is an approach in cancer treatment that aims to destroy malign tissues by injecting radionuclides directly into patients’ bodies via the bloodstream. This treatment connects benefits of care with risks related to radioactivity. Our research conducted in French hospitals shows that managing risk is an integral part of SRT, spanning from implementation, hospitals’ protocols, specific management, hospital settings, and training, to the individual experiences of health professionals and patients who are both exposed to radioactivity. This article argues that understanding how risks are managed in SRT not only requires making them identifiable, quantifiable, and calculable through medical devices in the context of evidence-based medicine, but also necessitates fostering trust throughout the treatment. This article explores and provides insights into three intertwined dimensions of trust in risk management: epistemic, (inter)-organizational, and interpersonal