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Big Data in der Forschung! Big Data in der Lehre? Ein Vorschlag zur Erweiterung der bestehenden Methodenausbildung
No full textDie Wirklichkeit nicht ignorieren. Die Linke muss verhindern, dass die Arbeiterklasse unter Zuwanderung leidet
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Analyzing Policy Advice: The Case of Climate Policy in Germany
No full textResearch in public administration and public policy is remarkably split between institutional approaches and policy analytical approaches. Whereas institutional approaches, most often in (comparative) public administration, identify features of politico-administrative systems to account for policy-making such as politicization or the role of the centre, policy perspectives explain policy-making by factors related to the respective policy domain, e.g. frames or agenda-setting. This divide becomes crucial in the analysis of policy advice. On the one hand, advisory systems are affected by features of politico-administrative systems because bureaucrats represent important sources of advice to ministers. On theother hand, advisory systems also vary across policy domains. The paper aims to reconcile the two approaches by analyzing the constitution of policy advisory systems as affected by both institutional and policy factors. The article argues that the composition and role of advisory systems and their components basically depend upon how the problem structure of a given policy domain prompts the involved actors to use the institutional context to impose their specific problem perception, and hence to determine the relevant knowledge in policy advice. Hence, the paper focuses on the question which institutional and policy-level factors affect the constitution of the policy advisory system in climate policy-making in German federal government
Enhancing Europe’s Power: A Rejoinder
No full textThis rejoinder responds to the eight comments to our report on ‘Enhancing Europe’s Global Power: A Scenario Exercise with Eight Proposals’. We address questions related to our definition of Europe, the notion of power, context and appropriateness of the scenario approach, the feasibility of enhancing European power, the rationale behind the proposed eight measures as well as the way ahead. Finally, we highlight green policies together with media and communication as promising candidates to increase European power
Flexible power and hydrogen production: Finding synergy between CCS and variable renewables
No full textThe expansion of wind and solar power is creating a growing need for power system flexibility. Dispatchable power plants with CO2 capture and storage (CCS) offer flexibility with low CO2 emissions, but these plants become uneconomical at the low running hours implied by renewables-based power systems. To address this challenge, the novel gas switching reforming (GSR) plant was recently proposed. GSR can alternate between electricity and hydrogen production from natural gas, offering flexibility to the power system without reducing the utilization rate of the capital stock embodied in CCS infrastructure. This study assesses the interplay between GSR and variable renewables using a power system model, which optimizes investment and hourly dispatch of 13 different technologies. Results show that GSR brings substantial benefits relative to conventional CCS. At a CO2 price of €100/ton, inclusion of GSR increases the optimal wind and solar share by 50%, lowers total system costs by 8%, and reduces system emissions from 45 to 4 kgCO2/MWh. In addition, GSR produces clean hydrogen equivalent to about 90% of total electricity demand, which can be used to decarbonize transport and industry. GSR could therefore become a key enabling technology for a decarbonization effort led by wind and solar power
Structural reform waves and economic growth
No full textAt a time of slow growth in several advanced and emerging countries, calls for more structural reforms are multiplying. However, estimations of the short- and medium-term impact of these reforms on GDP growth remain methodologically problematic and still highly controversial. We contribute to this literature by making a novel use of the non-parametric Synthetic Control Method to estimate the impact of 23 wide-reaching structural reform packages (including both real and financial sector measures) rolled out in 22 countries between 1961 and 2000. Our results suggest that, on average, reforms started having a significant positive effect on GDP per capita only after five years. Ten years after the beginning of a reform wave, GDP per capita was roughly 6 percentage points higher than the synthetic counterfactual scenario. However, average point estimates mask a large heterogeneity of outcomes. Benefits tended to materialise earlier, but overall to be more limited, in advanced economies than in emerging markets. These results are confirmed when we use a parametric dynamic panel fixed effect model to control for the rich dynamics of GDP, and are robust to a variety of alternative specifications, placebo and falsification tests, and to different indicators of reform
Forecasting
No full textPrognosen stellen in der Politikwissenschaft ein zwar noch kleines, aber stetig wachsendes Forschungsfeld dar, welches in verschiedenen Teilbereichen der Disziplin Anwendung findet. Gemeint sind hiermit statistische Modelle, mit denen explizit politikwissenschaftlich relevante Phänomene vor ihrem Eintreten vorhergesagt werden. Dabei folgen sie den wissenschaftlichen Leitlinien der intersubjektiven Nachvollziehbarkeit und Reproduzierbarkeit. Dieser Beitrag führt ein in die Grundlagen politikwissenschaftlicher Prognosen. Den Schwerpunkt der Darstellung bilden Wahlprognosen, insbesondere strukturelle Modelle, welche beispielhaft anhand eines kanonischen Wahlprognosemodells erläutert werden. Daneben werden synthetische Modelle, Aggregationsmodelle, „Wisdom of the crowd“-Ansätze und Prognosemärkte diskutiert
Inter-Ministerial Coordination: A Working Group in Climate Policy.
No full textThe following case study introduces coordination in climate adaptation policy, which is often regarded as a ‘wicked issue’ (Head, 2008) and thus characterized by strong complexity, uncertainty and ambiguity. In general, the field of climate policy is split between mitigation policy, that is targeting the causes of climate change mainly through emission reduction, and adaptation policy that seeks to establish measures to prepare for the adverse effects of climate change that are assumed to be inevitable, for example, in the area of coastal protection due to expected sea-level rise. Whereas German climate policy has traditionally been focusing on mitigation policy, adaptation policy assumes a latecomer position on the agenda of the federal government. In 2008, the German federal government established a distinct inter-ministerial working group (IMA Anpassungsstrategie, IMA) to cope with the complexity of the issue and to coordinate climate adaptation policy. Its main initial task was to develop an implementation plan of the National Adaptation Strategy approved in 2008. This chapter focuses on how IMA prepared the implementation plan from 2008 until 2011. Empirical data on inter-ministerial working groups in German federal government is generally rare. Inter-ministerial working groups are often established on an ad hoc basis (even though some seem to be permanent) to either jointly prepare drafts, or to solve inter-ministerial conflicts