Hertie School Research Repository
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Die Erfolge der AfD und die Wahlbeteiligung: Gibt es einen Zusammenhang?
No full textSeit die Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) erstmals zur Bundestagswahl 2013 antrat, nahm sie an allen darauffolgenden Landtagswahlen sowie der Europawahl 2014 teil und erzielte dabei teils beachtliche Erfolge. Gleichzeitig stieg die Wahlbeteiligung bei einigen dieser Wahlen deutlich an. Vor diesem Hintergrund stellt sich die Frage, ob die AfD von der gestiegenen Wahlbeteiligung profitiert hat und sogar dazu beitrug, die Wahlbeteiligung zu steigern? Ganz allgemein gefragt, welche Konsequenzen hat das Aufkommen populistischer Parteien für das politische System? Die Analyse der Wahlergebnisse in Bundestags-, Landtags- und Europawahlen auf Landkreisebene zeigt keinen eindeutigen Zusammenhang zwischen dem Erstarken der AfD und der Wahlbeteiligung. Nur in Einzelfällen wie der Bundestagswahl 2017 und bei Landtagswahlen 2016 lässt sich eine moderate mobilisierende Wirkung der AfD feststellen. Vielmehr deuten die Ergebnisse auf eine verstärkte Polarisierung der politischen Beteiligung hin
We All Die Alone
Get PDFEurope is struggling in the face of the pandemic. Germany in particular fails to recognise the historic proportions of this undertaking, and has reduced itself to the role of the model student who cannot help but lecture others along the way
A Research Agenda for Studies of Corruption
No full textThis interdisciplinary Research Agenda contains state-of-the-art surveys of the field of corruption and points towards an agenda for future research. This comprehensive work covers the main approaches to diagnosing, analysing and measuring corruption, as well as the ways to tackle it. Chapters explore top political and grassroots corruption, buying and stealing votes, corruption in relation to gender and the media, digital anti-corruption and an examination of whistleblowing and market-based tools
A tale of three French interventions: Intervention entrepreneurs and institutional intervention choices
No full textWhat factors explain the institutional shape of military interventions spearheaded by France? This article suggests that Intervention Entrepreneurs are the deciding agents. To secure the viability of their intervention proposal, they select an intervention venue based on pragmatic grounds. Most importantly, they carefully study possible domestic and international opposition to their intervention plans and conceive institutional intervention choices accordingly. The result is an ad hoc selection of intervention venues with little impact of political ideology, norms, organizational interests, or historical learning. Moreover, on many occasions, little attention is paid to the question: Which intervention format would most benefit the peace and prosperity in the conflict theatre in the medium to long term? The article illustrates this argument by tracing French institutional decision-making for interventions in Chad/CAR, Mali and Libya
Ein Ansatz zur Vorhersage der Erststimmenanteile bei Bundestagswahlen
No full textAlmost half of the total seats in the German Bundestag are awarded through first-past-the post elections at the electoral-district level. However, many election forecasting models do not consider this. In this paper we present an approach to predicting the candidate-vote shares at the district level for the German Federal Elections. To that end, we combine the national-level election prediction model from zweitstimme.org with two district-level prediction models, a linear regression and an artificial neural network, that both use the same candidate and district characteristics for their predictions. All data in our approach are publicly available prior to the respective election; thus, our model yields real forecasts. The model is therefore able to provide valuable information to running candidates and the interested public in future elections. Moreover, our prediction results are also relevant for substantive research: with the aid of the resulting odds of winning, better measures can be created to characterize the competitiveness of an electoral district and the expected closeness of electoral-district elections, which can influence political behaviour. Furthermore, the prediction allows empirical statements to be made about the expected size of the Bundestag as well as the composition of its personnel
Confronting Vulnerability - State-Induced Social Innovation and the Making of South Korea's Social Enterprises
No full textThis dissertation delineates the state-induced emergence and mainstreaming of South Korea’s (hereinafter, ‘Korea’) social enterprise sector following the enactment of a social enterprise promotion act in 2007. In particular, this dissertation contextualizes the public sector-led popularization and mobilization of social enterprises and studies the outcomes of this intervention. This dissertation includes analyses of networks, discourse, and geographic agglomerations, and it highlights the pressures, mechanisms, institutions, and organizations that have been integral to this process of state-induced innovation. It contributes to the literature on interactions between the state and social economy organizations, such as social enterprises. The relationship between the state and social economy organizations has been subject to much academic scrutiny, and the Korean case contributes to this literature by illustrating how the state has induced the emergence and scaling of social enterprises as a private organizational form and also by showing where social enterprises have flourished. The Korean case contrasts with the North American and European cases in that in Korea the state purposively popularized social enterprise, as opposed to the North American and European traditions where the origins of social enterprise are more closely linked to civil society. This has implications for how states can induce the founding of private organizational forms that serve their interests. Korea is an especially intriguing case study given that ‘social enterprise’ as an organizational form was almost entirely absent from Korean society prior to 2007, yet has now become embedded into society in the sense that social enterprises are found in nearly every industry and municipal district. There are now thousands of social enterprises in Korea a little more than a decade after the enactment of social enterprise promotion legislation. Civil society has, evidently, accepted social enterprises as a valid organizational form. This dissertation seeks to establish an empirical platform and a theoretical framework which can be utilized for a more theoretical analysis of social enterprise and other social economy organizations in Korea in future studies. Nevertheless, this dissertation does reveal how actors can manipulate the path dependencies imposed by history, and the capabilities bequeathed by it, to forge new possibilities in novel and strategic ways. The Korean state’s ability to induce social innovation is a tangible illustration of such
Big data to the rescue? Challenges in analysing granular household electricity consumption in the United Kingdom
No full textRapid growth in smart meter installations has given rise to vast collections of data at a high time-resolution and down to an individual level. However, to enable efficient policy interventions, we need to be able to appropriately segment the population of users. The aim of this paper is to consider challenges and opportunities associated with large highly-granular temporal datasets that describe residential electricity consumption. In particular, the focus is on experiments relating to aggregation of smart meter time-series data in the context of clustering and prediction tasks that are often used for customer targeting and to gain insight on energy-use about sub populations. To cluster energy use profiles, we propose a novel framework based on a set of Gaussian based models which we use to encode individuals’ energy consumption over time. The dataset consists of half hourly electricity consumption records from smart meters of households in the UK (2014–2015). The contribution of this paper comes from its investigation of how consumers or groups may be clustered according to model parameters in scenarios where additional data on consumers is not available to the researcher, or where anonymity preservation of the smart meter user is prioritised. A secondary aim is to invite greater awareness when data reduction is required to reduce the size of a large dataset for computational purposes. This may have implications for policy interventions acting at the individual or small group level, for instance, when designing incentives to encourage energy efficient behaviour or when identifying fuel poor customers
The EU’s strategic compass for security and defence: Just another paper?
No full textThe EU decided to develop a “strategic compass” for its security and defence policy until 2022. Building on a common threat analysis, it should concretise the EU’s level of ambition as a security provider. The strategic compass represents a real and timely opportunity, but there is also a risk of engaging in a lengthy and winding process that would simply produce another paper. This policy paper presents risks and opportunities and develops recommendations for both stages of the process