20253 research outputs found
Sort by
Complexity and uncertainty in future food system transformation modelling
No full textFood systems face multi-dimensional pressures and require integrated assessments of environmental, social, health and economic dimensions to inform their transformation. Although economic equilibrium models and integrated assessment models have been instrumental in this context, future decision-making requires more diverse and inclusive participatory processes. Here we evaluate the ability of current models to represent food systems and identify challenges and opportunities regarding key aspects of their transformative change, including socio-political dynamics and human-nature feedbacks, links between global and local scales, robustness under uncertainty, as well as evolving stakeholder demands. Our analysis underscores the need to rethink how models are designed and used for a more effective integration into decision-making processes
Spanish-language text classification for environmental evidence synthesis using multilingual pre-trained models
No full textArtificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly being explored as a tool to optimize and accelerate various stages of evidence synthesis. A persistent challenge in environmental evidence syntheses is that these remain predominantly monolingual (English), leading to biased results and misinforming cross-scale policy decisions. AI offers a promising opportunity to incorporate non-English language evidence in evidence syntheses screening process and help to move beyond the current monolingual focus of evidence syntheses. Using a corpus of Spanish-language peer-reviewed papers on biodiversity conservation interventions, we developed and evaluated text classifiers using supervised machine learning models. Our best-performing model achieved 100% recall meaning no relevant papers (n = 9) were missed and filtered out over 70% (n = 867) of negative documents based only on the title and abstract of each paper. The text was encoded using a pre-trained multilingual model and class-weights were used to deal with a highly imbalanced dataset (0.79%). This research therefore offers an approach to reducing the manual, time-intensive effort required for document screening in evidence syntheses—with minimal risk of missing relevant studies. It highlights the potential of multilingual large language models and class-weights to train a light-weight non-English language classifier that can effectively filter irrelevant texts, using only a small non-English language labelled corpus. Future work could build on our approach to develop a multilingual classifier that enables the inclusion of any non-English scientific literature in evidence syntheses
Integrated Flood Exposure, Land-Use Impact, Crop & Grassland data
No full textA comprehensive, reproducible suite of workflows for assessing flood exposure, land-use impacts, and crop-area, production, and revenue outcomes across multiple models, RCPs, and adaptation or mitigation strategies (snapshot years 2020 – 2050)
Comparison of the economic return of conventional and novel silver birch management strategies
No full textForests provide many essential ecosystem services. In Sweden, roundwood assortments and residual biomass are vital feedstock sources. Swedish forestry is slowly replacing conifer monocultures with mixed conifer-broadleaf forests to enhance climate resilience. This study evaluates the economic returns of managing mixed forest stands comprising 0.25 ha patches of individual species compared to larger Norway spruce and silver birch monocultures. Specifically, we investigate (1) harvesting silver birch as energy biomass in the first thinning and timber in the final felling and (2) determining thinning timing based on stand basal area versus species-specific criteria. We used the Heureka forest growth and development modelling software to simulate various stand types and management strategies based on experimental forest data. Group-mixed stands were simulated by integrating separate species� monoculture data. Results indicate that incorporating energy thinning into birch-spruce mixed stands can generate positive net revenues, supporting the economic viability of biomass harvesting. Strengthening birch biomass and timber markets, optimising thinning logistics, and refining harvesting methods will promote sustainable birch management. Expanding these strategies could significantly enhance the economic and ecological resilience of mixed and broadleaf-dominated forests in Sweden
Dependence of Lowland Water Use on Mountain Runoff Globally: Interannual Variability and Future Changes at Seasonal Scale
No full textMost of the global population lives in lowlands, where water demand is highest. Therefore, understanding the dependence of lowland regions on mountain water at a global scale is crucial as mountains provide an essential contribution to lowland water resources. Yet, interannual variability remains poorly studied in this context, although it is a key factor influencing water supply and demand. In this study, we used global simulations to contrast lowland and mountain runoff and future changes across all river basins larger than 10,000 km2 globally, focusing on seasonality and interannual variability. We also examined the contribution of mountain runoff to lowland water use, its seasonality and interannual variability and its potential future changes. Our results indicate that relative interannual runoff variability is lower in mountain regions compared to lowlands in 70% of river basins. Lowland water use exhibits considerable interannual variability with greater reliance on mountain runoff during years with low lowland runoff. By the end of the century, under the SSP5-8.5 pathway, the absolute volume of lowland water abstraction reliant on mountain runoff is projected to increase in most river basins compared to the past due to socio-economic changes. Yet, its share relative to total lowland surface water abstraction is projected to decline in many basins due to increased average lowland precipitation. Possible implications of such an increased reliance on mountain runoff include heightened water conflicts, as growing dependence on upstream mountain runoff may intensify transboundary challenges
A food system transformation pathway reconciles 1.5 °C global warming with improved health, environment and social inclusion
No full textThe improvement of the global food system requires a thorough understanding of how specific measures may contribute to the system’s transformation. Here we apply a global food and land system modelling framework to quantify the impact of 23 food system measures on 15 outcome indicators related to public health, the environment, social inclusion and the economy, up to 2050. While all individual measures come with trade-offs, their combination can reduce trade-offs and enhance co-benefits. We estimate that combining all food system measures may reduce yearly mortality by 182 million life years and almost halves nitrogen surplus while offsetting negative effects of environmental protection measures on absolute poverty. Through joint efforts, including measures outside the food system, the 1.5 °C climate target can be achieved
Feedback-based sea level rise impact modelling for integrated assessment models with FRISIAv1.0
No full textGlobal warming is expected to lead to a substantial rise in coastal sea levels by the end of the century, which imposes future impacts and adaptation challenges on the coastal zone. Capturing the socio-economic costs of sea level rise (SLR) is therefore an important component of climate impacts in integrated assessment models (IAMs). However, there is a lack of process-based models of SLR impacts with a focus on global, time-varying dynamics. Current SLR impact models often follow a cost-benefit analysis approach, fail to represent diverse pathways of SLR impacts, or do not include coastal adaptation. Here, we present the Feedback-based knowledge Repository for Integrated assessments of Sea level rise Impacts and Adaptation version 1.0 (FRISIAv1.0), a model designed for process-based, non-equilibrium IAMs that follows a system dynamics approach. FRISIA's SLR component is based on existing models of SLR, while its impact component is a substantially modified adaptation of the Coastal Impact and Adaptation Model (CIAM) for use in globally or regionally aggregated models. While a reduced-feedback version of FRISIA approximately reproduces CIAM results, the integration of additional feedbacks in FRISIA leads to emerging new behaviours, such as a potential peak and decline in SLR-driven storm surge damages in the early 22nd century, due to economic feedbacks in the coastal zone. When coupling FRISIA to an IAM, global GDP is reduced by 1.5 %–6.2 % (17th–83rd percentile range) under the mean SSP5-8.5 global-mean sea level rise from the IPCC's AR6 report (0.77 m by 2100) and no coastal adaptation, which is in the range of previous studies. The coupling of a diverse set of SLR impact streams from FRISIA into a system dynamics IAM has the advantage of leading to a wide range of socio-economic consequences that go beyond just a reduction in global GDP, such as an effect on inflation. Our simulations highlight the benefits of accounting for dynamic coastal feedback and coupling diverse SLR impact and cost strains to IAMs, and showcase that FRISIAv1.0 is a useful tool for doing so
Scenarios and Ethnography: Infrastructural Futures as Windows into the Present
No full textLarge-scale infrastructures are typically part of development projects that are global in ambition and local in their impacts. While anthropology has a decent track record of using ethnographic methods in the study of infrastructure, it typically lacks the capacity to provoke statements or attitudes regarding larger development plans. Scenario workshops, initially developed by researchers in the field of foresight studies, turn out to be productive tools in eliciting assessments of the present by talking about possible futures. The European Research Council project InfraNorth conducted scenario workshops in two locations in Canada and Norway in 2023, in which four scenarios were presented and discussed. Apart from speculations about what the future might bring, these discussions provided ethnographic insights that went beyond what we had found before through more traditional means of ethnography. We suggest that scenarios and scenario workshops have the potential to offer ethnographic windows into infrastructural presents by talking about the future