International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

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    20253 research outputs found

    Overcoming the disconnect between species interaction networks and biodiversity conservation

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    Decision-makers need to act now to halt biodiversity loss, and ecologists must provide them with relevant species interaction indicators to inform about community- and ecosystem-level changes. Yet, the integration of ecological networks into conservation is still virtually nonexistent. Here, we argue that existing data and methodologies are sufficient to generate network information usable for conservation and to begin overcoming existing barriers to the inte-gration of network information and biodiversity decision-making. Interaction network indicators must meet criteria important to decision-makers and be tied to specific conservation goals, which requires academics to better engage with practitioners. We use network robustness as an example of an already ap-plicable indicator and showcase its potential with a reusable workflow to inform decision-making

    Indeed a ‛silver bullet’ – improving the measurement of ageing in consumer behaviour using the characteristic age approach

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    The aim of this paper is to elaborate on the status quo of measuring age in older consumer behaviour research and to identify new research avenues by introducing approaches from gerontology and demography. The study is based on a review of 211 papers on the behaviour of consumers at an advanced age. Our findings provide a comprehensive overview of chronological, biological, psychological, social, and multi-theoretical age measures. The results show that ability perspectives have become more prevalent in recent years but have not been able to break the dominance of chronological age. To foster theory development, we propose several actions to encourage a stronger interdisciplinary focus in consumer behaviour research on established, parsimonious, performance-based, and robust measures from gerontology and demography

    The same but different: A cross‐country comparison of national earthquake policies and societal perspectives of seismic risk in Israel and Switzerland

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    National earthquake policies aim to mitigate earthquake risk by minimizing the potential damage to lives, property, and infrastructure and by preparing the population to carry out recommended behaviors when an earthquake is felt or a warning is heard. In this research, we compare two earthquake-prone countries, Israel and Switzerland, to examine if and how their policies to mitigate seismic risk differ, and how citizens react to the national earthquake policies in terms of their perceived risk of earthquakes and their preparedness. We examine and compare four national-level earthquake policy components—risk assessment, mitigation regulation, early warning system, and risk communication with the public. We find that centralized national-level policy in Israel, which includes regulated building codes, a nationwide early warning system, and national awareness campaigns, does lead to higher levels of reported awareness and preparedness. Similarly, in high-risk cantons in Switzerland, which apply these policies (except for the warning system), citizens were also more prepared than in low-risk cantons. However, given learning from both countries' policies, we suggest that earthquake policies should include collaboration with local authorities and the population through a more decentralized and localized approach, which includes drills, training, and information dissemination

    Speciation

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    What drives the emergence of new species has fascinated biologists since Darwin. Reproductive barriers to gene flow are a key step in the formation of species, and recent advances have shed new light on how these are established. Genetic, genomic, and comparative techniques, together with improved theoretical frameworks, are increasing our understanding of the underlying mechanisms. They are also helping us forecast speciation and reveal the impact of human activity

    Climate experiences to adaptation participation: a survey study in Catalonia

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    Climate change is a major threat to regions worldwide. The Mediterranean Basin is considered a notable hotspot for climate impacts, experiencing intense droughts, longer summers, changes in rainfall patterns, and increased heat. Catalonia, a north-eastern Spanish autonomous community located in the Mediterranean region, has experienced extreme drought resulting from climate change during the past decade, with the negative impacts becoming more evident since 2022. Understanding local perspectives on climate change and increasing community engagement in climate initiatives have been shown to foster successful adaptation solutions. Many studies in the literature link climate change experiences with a heightened willingness to participate in climate adaptation initiatives. Some studies state that the link contains nuance and climate experiences do not directly result in an increased willingness to participate. However, there is limited research on how perspectives can be influenced during a natural disaster. To gain an understanding of local climate perspectives and attempt to fill the research gap on how active climate events shape an individual’s perspectives, a survey was conducted in Catalonia, Spain, that asked participants their views on local climate adaptation solutions, trust in local authorities, and their willingness to participate in climate adaptation initiatives. Results from the survey showed skepticism towards the effectiveness of adaptation policies, a low level of trust in authorities, and significant variations in non-monetary and financial willingness to participate in climate adaptation. The results of the survey stress the need for varied engagement methods by authorities to effectively engage citizens in climate adaptation solutions

    Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations

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    Continued anthropogenic pressures on the Earth system hold the potential to disrupt established circulation patterns in the ocean and atmosphere. In this narrative review, we investigate tipping points in these systems by assessing scientific evidence for feedbacks that may drive self-sustained change beyond critical forcing thresholds, drawing on insights from expert elicitation. The literature provides multiple strands of evidence for oceanic tipping points in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG), and the Antarctic Overturning Circulation, which may collapse under warmer and “fresher” (i.e. less salty) conditions. A slowdown or collapse of these oceanic circulations would have far-reaching consequences for the rest of the climate system and could lead to strong impacts on human societies and the biosphere. Among the atmospheric circulation systems considered, a few lines of evidence suggest the West African monsoon (WAM) as a tipping system. Its abrupt changes in the past have led to vastly different vegetation states of the Sahara (e.g. “green Sahara” states). Despite multiple potential sources of destabilization, evidence about tipping of the monsoon systems over South America and Asia is limited. Although theoretically possible, there is currently little indication for tipping points in tropical clouds or mid-latitude atmospheric circulations. Similarly, tipping towards a more extreme or persistent state of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently not fully supported by models and observations. While the tipping thresholds for many of these systems are uncertain, tipping could have severe socio-environmental consequences. Stabilizing Earth's climate (along with minimizing other environmental pressures, such as aerosol pollution and ecosystem degradation) is critical for reducing the likelihood of reaching tipping points in the ocean–atmosphere system

    Population inequality matters

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    This Special Issue features 22 contributions that examine the interplay between population diversity and social inequality, thereby addressing the causes and consequences of socio-economic status (SES) differences in demographic behaviour. Among these 22 contributions, six are invited Debate articles that discuss selected contemporary challenges linked to population inequalities, including their measurement and assessment. These articles cover topics such as digitalisation, skills gaps, household arrangements, widow-hood, mortality inequalities and subnational population dynamics. A striking example underscoring the need to consider demographic developments in conjunction with social inequality is the correlation between longevity and education, income and wealth. The observation that socio-economic status (SES) determines how long we live is not only rele-vant for understanding demographic patterns, but is also highly pertinent for policymakers aiming to reduce social inequalities. The link between demographic processes and social inequality is also evident in research on family behaviour, which, for example, explores the extent to which growing labour market inequalities shape disparities in fertility and family dynamics. Migration has an obvious connection to social inequality and social stratification research, particularly regarding the unequal opportunities in income and education migrants face within receiving societies, as well as in migrants’ demographic behaviour and its relation to SES. This Special Issue seeks to emphasise the importance of linking research on demographic diversity and social inequality. Demographic research contributes by providing hard numbers on population structure and societal change, and showing how these relate to social inequality. In doing so, this research informs policymakers about the areas where action is needed

    Multi-century global and regional sea-level rise commitments from cumulative greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades

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    Sea levels respond to climate change on timescales from decades to millennia. To isolate the sea-level contribution of historical and near-term GHG emissions, we use a dedicated scenario and modelling framework to quantify global and regional sea-level rise commitments of twenty-first century cumulative emissions. Under current climate policies, emissions until 2050 lock in 0.3 m (likely range 0.2–0.5 m) more global mean sea-level rise by 2300 than historical emissions until 2020. This additional commitment would grow to 0.8 m (0.5–1.4 m) for emissions until 2090, of which 0.6 m (0.4–1.1 m) could be avoided under very stringent mitigation. Resulting regional commitments would be around 10% higher than the global signal for the vulnerable Pacific region, mainly due to higher relative Antarctic contributions. Our work shows that multi-century sea-level rise commitments are strongly controlled by mitigation decisions in coming decades

    Human agency

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    The scholarship on climate mobilities has evolved to pay attention to human agency and cultural adaptation. In this viewpoint, we argue that the international organizations (IOs) with formal mandates related to migration governance, refugee protection, and climate adaptation are still falling short in this aspect. Currently, these actors tend to neglect agency and adaptation because they view ‘climate mobility’ as a macrotrend and analyze it within a framework of polycrisis. This polycrisis or macrotrend framework (1) does not focus on specific contexts or agents, making drastic events seem inevitable and solutions impossible, and (2) is based on the idea of a negative feedback loop demanding extraordinary measures rather than local socio-political solutions. By focusing on human agency and culture to understand climate mobility, international organizations can better analyze the circumstances in which migration decisions are being made and what people need from policymakers while undertaking their preferred adaptive strategies. Bringing a human agency and culture lens more fully IO reports on climate mobility will help us to better understand the causes and, more critically, the solutions to these global but also highly localized issues

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