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気候変動の不確実性を考慮した防災投資の動学的最適化に関する研究– jump-diffusion過程下の確率制御モデル – (Optimization of Disaster Risk Reduction Investment in Era of Climate Change - A Stochastic Control Model in Jump-Diffusion Process)
No full textHazards of tectonic origin, such as earthquakes and volcanoes, and those of meteorological origin, such as typhoons and torrential rains, which are influenced by climate change, differ in terms of the frequency and probability of disaster occurrence and the spatial extent of damage to the socio-economy. This study develops an optimal investment planning concept for disaster risk management that differentiates between rare and large-scale disaster risks and regularly occurring small-scale disaster risks, as a stochastic control model under a jump-diffusion process. We further develop an algorithm to numerically calculate the optimal value function and investigate the relationship between disaster characteristics and the optimal policy through numerical simulations
Digital Discourses of Peace: Crowdsourced Perspectives on Asian Peace Making Through YouTube Analysis
No full textBeyond the limit: The estimated air pollution damages of overshooting the temperature target
No full textExposure to outdoor air pollution results in millions of premature deaths and illnesses that are associated with substantial economic loss. According to the Global Burden of Disease, outdoor air pollution was responsible for 4.7 million deaths in 2021. Climate change mitigation policies could provide cobenefits by reducing air pollution. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR6 report explores scenarios using an updated carbon budget approach—the net-zero pathways—designed to avoid temporary overshoot of the 1.5°C temperature limit. We assess whether net-zero pathways consistently improve air pollution outcomes using a global source-receptor air pollution model to estimate concentrations, health impacts, and economic damages. To analyze key uncertainties, we apply multiple relative risk functions and economic damage models. Our findings show that stringent climate policies, avoiding overshoot and keeping below 2°C, offer substantial health and economic cobenefits, particularly for China and India, and avoid 207,000 premature deaths and 2269 billion USD2020 in damages by 2030
Declining demand and circular transition possibilities of sand, gravel and crushed stone in China
No full textAggregates (sand, gravel, crushed stone) make up half of all globally extracted materials and present substantial environmental challenges. China, which consumes half of the world’s aggregates, is undergoing profound shifts in both supply and demand. Our scenario-based model tracks aggregate flows and stocks across 30 end-uses in Chinese provinces from 1978 to 2050. We find that China’s aggregate demand peaked around 2015, accompanied by a gradual and continuous shift from natural to manufactured aggregates. Total demand after 2030 is projected to decline to ~50% of 2020 levels in circular economy scenarios. Per capita stocks tend to saturate by 2040, although saturation timing varies across provinces. Stock saturation may lead to increased availability of recycled aggregates, which could become a primary supply source. We highlight the critical need for stricter policies and regulations for the aggregate industry, offering insights for other economies facing similar challenges
Development of the global hydro-economic model (ECHO-Global version 1.0) for assessing the performance of water management options
No full textWater scarcity is one of the most critical global environmental challenges. Addressing this challenge requires implementing economically-profitable and environmentally-sustainable water management interventions across scales globally. This study presents the development of the global version of the ECHO hydro-economic model (ECHO-Global version 1.0), for assessing the economic and environmental performance of water management options. This global version covers 282 subbasins worldwide, includes a detailed representation of irrigated agriculture and its management, and incorporates economic benefit functions of water use in the agricultural, domestic and industrial sectors calibrated using the Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) procedure alongside with the water supply cost. We used ECHO-Global to simulate the impact of alternative water management scenarios under future climate and socio-economic changes, with the aim of demonstrating its value for informing water management decision making. Results of these simulations are overall consistent with previous studies evaluating the global cost of water supply and adaptation to global changes. Moreover, these results show the changes in water use and water supply and their economic impacts in a spatially-explicit way across the world, and highlight the opportunities for reducing those impacts through improved water management. Overall, this study demonstrates the capacity of ECHO-Global to address emerging research and practical questions related to future economic and environmental impacts of global changes on water resources and to translate global water goals (e.g., SDG6) into national and local policies
Expert retrospective on a decade of the Paris Agreement
No full textTo mark the tenth anniversary of the Paris Agreement, Nature Climate Change asked experts to reflect on the progress of and barriers to several of its key Articles. They share their thoughts on important policy implications, what has been achieved and missed, as well as future directions
Archetypes for Nature-Based Adaptation: Aligning Nature-Based Solutions and Enabling Conditions to Address Water Risk in Food Producing Landscapes
No full textSpaces of anthropogenic CO2 emissions compatible with climate boundaries
No full textClimate boundaries are planetary boundaries for the climate system: limits within which humanity can sustainably prosper. Here we introduce a modelling framework to analyse global warming, ocean acidification, sea-level rise and Arctic sea-ice melt. Using a reduced-form model, we map out anthropogenic CO2 emissions, carbon dioxide removal and solar radiation management pathways compatible with these boundaries. We define safety levels as the probability to stay within one or several boundaries considering physical uncertainty. If CO2 emissions peak in 2030, net-zero CO2 is reached in 2050, and carbon dioxide removal capacity is 10 PgC yr−1, without solar radiation management, remaining within the global warming boundary of 2 °C exhibits a safety level of 80%. When all four boundaries are considered together, the safety level drops to 35%. Our results highlight key trade-offs in mitigation options and suggest a need to assess climate boundaries holistically to develop sustainable future strategies
Wildfire and Biodiversity Meta-Analysis Dataset (European Forests)
No full textHere is the dataset of a meta-analysis examining the effects of fires on taxa abundances within various European forest fauna and flora. The analysis focuses on how different taxa respond to fire, providing quantitative estimates of these responses using effect sizes. The dataset provides 2192 unique effect sizes from 819 unique taxa reported in 29 studies investigating wild or prescribed fires. The study sites covered four European forest biomes (Mediterranean Forests, woodlands and scrubs; Temperate broadleaf and mixed forests; Temperate Coniferous Forest, and Boreal forests/Taiga) and 13 ecoregions (Olson et al., 2001).
The main CSV file contains all the input and output data. The primary input data contains data from published studies examining fire effects on various taxonomic groups. Each row represents a unique effect size from a comparison between burned (treatment) and unburned (control) conditions.
A second CSV file contains the citation information for the 29 included studies the main dataset