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Trends and determinants of energy intensity in China: A study using index decomposition and econometric analysis
Get PDFThe Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7 underscores the global imperative to accelerate progress in energy efficiency. This paper investigates the drivers of energy intensity changes in China from 2006 to 2022 using provincial panel data, Fisher's Ideal Index decomposition, and fixed-effects econometric models. Results show that efficiency improvements are the primary contributor to reductions in energy intensity, while structural shifts have a limited impact. GDP per capita exhibits a nonlinear effect: growth increases intensity at lower income levels but reduces it at higher levels through rising environmental awareness and shifts toward low-energy products. Energy prices significantly influence intensity and structural effects, though regulatory distortions limit their effectiveness. Fiscal capacity and population growth increase energy demand, highlighting the need for green fiscal investments and energy-saving policies. Regional analysis reveals stronger efficiency gains in central and eastern provinces, while western provinces face resource and technology constraints. The findings support differentiated, regionally tailored policies to achieve sustained energy reductions and low-carbon development
Systematic attribution of heatwaves to the emissions of carbon majors
Get PDFExtreme event attribution assesses how climate change affected climate extremes, but typically focuses on single events 1–4 . Furthermore, these attributions rarely quantify the extent to which anthropogenic actors have contributed to these events 5,6 . Here we show that climate change made 213 historical heatwaves reported over 2000–2023 more likely and more intense, to which each of the 180 carbon majors (fossil fuel and cement producers) substantially contributed. This work relies on the expansion of a well-established event-based framework 1 . Owing to global warming since 1850–1900, the median of the heatwaves during 2000–2009 became about 20 times more likely, and about 200 times more likely during 2010–2019. Overall, one-quarter of these events were virtually impossible without climate change. The emissions of the carbon majors contribute to half the increase in heatwave intensity since 1850–1900. Depending on the carbon major, their individual contribution is high enough to enable the occurrence of 16–53 heatwaves that would have been virtually impossible in a preindustrial climate. We, therefore, establish that the influence of climate change on heatwaves has increased, and that all carbon majors, even the smaller ones, contributed substantially to the occurrence of heatwaves. Our results contribute to filling the evidentiary gap to establish accountability of historical climate extremes 7,8
Comparative analysis of adaptation policies and policy instruments for water management in Europe
No full textStudy region
Ten European countries, including Finland, Austria, Switzerland, Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark, Estonia, Spain, Latvia, and Lithuania
Study focus
Adaptation policies are deeply structured and shaped by contextual climatic, environmental, social, and governance factors, making them inherently sector-specific. Their effective implementation requires integrated, cross-sectoral approaches, strong governmental engagement, and active citizen engagement. This study conducts a content analysis of adaptation strategies and plans in the water sector across European countries, aiming to identify key themes, policy types, and dominant instruments. Two main documents, the National Adaptation Strategy (NAS) and the National Adaptation Plan (NAP), available on the Climate-ADAPT-2023 platform, have been analyzed.
New hydrological insights for the region
All countries in the study use a mix of adaptation strategies, plans, and policy instruments, each focusing on specific instruments. Information-based instruments such as mapping flood risk are the most widely policy instruments by European countries to address adaptation. Many countries rely on infrastructural and technical instruments, particularly for drinking water supply networks, sewage and stormwater systems, irrigation, and flood risk management. Most countries have employed policies such as promoting responsible water use, enhancing water conservation and recycling, assessing flood risks, and managing flood impacts to promote citizen engagement. By systematically analyzing these policies, the study contributes to clarifying fragmented knowledge, highlighting national priorities, and enabling broader cross-country comparisons
JMIP 2 Part 1: Technology uncertainty and robustness in Japan’s net-zero pathways
No full textJapan’s commitment to reach net-zero 2050 hinges on innovation in emerging, uncertain technologies. Yet, no study has systematically examined uncertainties in technology development for Japan’s net-zero goal in a multi-model framework. Here, we close this research gap by presenting the results of the Japan Model Intercomparison Project (JMIP) 2. Across models and technology scenarios with wide spreads in costs of emerging technologies, we consistently identify the following robust strategies for net zero: (1) reducing unabated fossil fuels, (2) improving economy-wide energy efficiency, (3) decarbonizing the power sector, and (4) deploying carbon dioxide removal. We also find that although the expansion of variable renewable energy and end-use electrification is robust, the precise level in 2050 remains uncertain. Using technology sensitivity scenarios, we show that the marginal cost of abatement (or carbon price) is significantly affected by the availability of carbon removal. Affordability of hydrogen and ammonia imports significantly affects primary energy supply in some models, underscoring a policy architecture that can flexibly adapt as the techno-economic landscape evolves
Assessing Carbon Dioxide Removal Technologies Through Transitional Justice: Challenging the Moral Hazard Argument
No full textWe analyze the moral aspects of Carbon Dioxide Removal technologies (CDRs) through what we call ‘transitional justice.’ Experts currently consider CDRs to be essential for mitigating climate change. This raises the question: are CDRs compatible with a just transition? We argue that there is a strong case for adopting CDRs within a just transition, despite some potentially unjust facets of these technologies. We also show that framing CDRs as a moral hazard to climate change mitigation is not conducive to a just transition, and that instead a notional opposition to CDRs constitutes an actual moral hazard to sufficient mitigation
Explaining climatic drivers of yield anomalies in global crop models through metamodel-based attribution
No full textGlobal gridded crop models (GGCMs) are important tools for assessing climate impacts on agriculture, yet significant divergence in their projections limits interpretability, and impact studies often treat GGCMs as black boxes. Targeted ensemble sensitivity analyses are demanding and not transferable to different ensembles. Here, we comprehensively evaluate climatic and soil drivers of crop yield anomalies in a state-of-the-art GGCM ensemble, using maize as a representative crop. Gradient boosting classifiers detect anomalies, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values quantify feature importance, and methods are applied to a recent GGCM experiment driven by reanalysis climate data. We find broadly similar climatic drivers across the ensemble, though feature importance distributions differ. Low precipitation dominates under rainfed conditions, while solar radiation typically ranks second, highlighting that drought impacts depend on atmospheric water demand often omitted from sensitivity analyses. In some GGCMs, excess rather than insufficient water drives anomalies. With irrigation, low solar radiation or adverse temperatures become the main drivers. In (semi-)arid regions, some GGCMs respond more to cool conditions, others to warm ones. Soil features usually rank lowest but can be moderately important in some models. Our findings demonstrate that evaluating opportunistic data—experiments produced for other purposes—yields vital insights into GGCM divergence in impact studies. Code is publicly available on GitHub to support future attribution analyses and inform broad audiences about drivers of observed results
How stocks judge COPs: market impacts of climate conferences
No full textInternational efforts to combat climate change almost inevitably entail relative earnings reductions for fossil fuel companies, and gains by renewable companies. This study investigates the relationship between climate change Conference of the Parties (COP) meetings and the stock market performance of selected publicly listed companies. Specifically, we compare the price formation of fossil fuel companies, ethically-rated (“green”) companies and renewable energy companies during international climate negotiations, compared to the periods around them. We investigate changes in market behaviour during COPs using two different statistical approaches to assess both whole of the period and daily effects. Both methods find distinct increases in the values of stocks with high green ratings, but no changes in stocks of renewable companies and weaker and more statistically inconsistent decreases in the values of fossil fuel companies. No consistent results are found for variability measurements, other than general market variability increases during COPs. We show that, by contrast, OPEC meetings produce very strong increases in the stock values and variabilities of fossil fuel companies, and fairly strong decreases in the value of renewables companies, showing that detectable changes during predictable events are generally plausible. We conclude that market behaviour so far appears to favour companies with lower environmental impact during COPs but does not convincingly shift company price formation in line with the necessary green transition
D5.4 Software package and user guide for multi- hazard and multi-risk scenario generation
No full textThis deliverable presents the MYRIAD-EU Multi-Risk Toolkit - a modular, open-source software platform developed under Work Package 5 to support comprehensive multi-hazard and multi-risk scenario generation.
Designed to address the complexity of systemic risk in a changing climate, the toolkit enables quantitative, semi-quantitative, and qualitative assessments across hazards, sectors, and geographies. Through its web-based interface and integrated QGIS plugin, the software empowers users to explore cascading impacts, test mitigation strategies, and support decision-making with evidence-based risk insights. This was one of the key findings as part of WP5, that only quantitative modelling cannot fully encompass the needs of sectors towards multi-risk.
The toolkit comprises core analytical modules including the Curve Explorer, Exposure at Risk, Scenario Calculator, Scenario Showcase, and the Vulnerability Index Editor. These allow users to visualise vulnerability functions, assess sectoral exposure, simulate risk under concurrent or sequential hazards, and generate spatial vulnerability indices. Complementary observatories, such as the EU Tourism Resilience Observatory, further extend the toolkit’s application to destination-specific risk profiling and sectoral solutions, specifically for tourism.
Integration with datasets and concepts from across MYRIAD-EU (WPs 1–4, 6) ensures alignment with state-of-the-art risk science and stakeholder-driven methodologies.
The user guide, included in this deliverable, provides detailed operational support for deploying and applying the toolkit in research and policy settings. It includes setup instructions, methodological background, user workflows, and guidance on future extensibility. Future enhancements will focus on improving sectoral data coverage, dynamic vulnerability integration, and long-term usability. The toolkit is accessible via www.myriad-multirisk.eu and maintained by Risklayer to ensure ongoing relevance beyond the project duration
Shifting dominant periods in extreme climate impacts under global warming
No full textSpatio-temporal patterns of extreme climate events have been extensively studied, yet two questions remain underexplored: Do such events occur regularly, and how do regularity patterns change under global warming? We address these questions by investigating dominant periods in crop failure, heatwave, and wildfire data. Here, we show that under pre-industrial conditions dominant periods emerge in 28% of cropland exposed to crop failure and 10% of wildfire-affected areas, likely related to climatic oscillations such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, while heatwaves occur irregularly. The number of dominant periods increases by 2–13% during the transition from the pre-industrial era to the anthropocene. In the anthropocene, the occurrence of extreme events shifts towards monotonic growth, replacing previous natural regularity patterns. Linearly de-trended projections reveal an additional shift towards smaller dominant periods due to climate change. These shifts in regularity are crucial for adaptation planning, and our method offers an additional approach for studying extreme events
Quantifying European SF 6 emissions from 2005 to 2021 using a large inversion ensemble
No full textSulfur hexafluoride (SF6) is a highly potent and long-lived greenhouse gas whose atmospheric concentrations are increasing due to human emissions. In this study, we determine European SF6 emissions from 2005 to 2021 using a large ensemble of atmospheric inversions. To assess uncertainty, we systematically vary key inversion parameters across 986 sensitivity tests and apply a Monte Carlo approach to randomly combine these parameters in 1003 additional inversions. Our analysis focuses on high-emitting countries with robust observational coverage – UK, Germany, France, and Italy – while also examining aggregated EU-27 emissions.
SF6 emissions declined across all studied regions except Italy, largely attributed to EU F-gas regulations (2006, 2014), however, national reports underestimated emissions: (i) UK emissions dropped from 68 (47–77) t yr−1 in 2008 to 19 (15–26) t yr−1 in 2018, aligning with the reports from 2018 onward; (ii) French emissions fell from 78 (51–117) t yr−1 (2005) to 35 (19–54) t yr−1 (2021), exceeding reports by 88 %; (iii) Italian emissions fluctuated (25–48 t yr−1), surpassing reports by 107 %; (iv) German emissions declined from 182 (155–251) t yr−1 (2005) to 97 (88–104) t yr−1 (2021), aligning reasonably well with reports; (v) EU-27 emissions decreased from 403 (335–501) t yr−1 (2005) to 225 (191–260) t yr−1 (2021), exceeding reports by 20 %. A substantial drop from 2017 to 2018 mirrored the trend in southern Germany, suggesting regional actions were taken as the 2014 EU regulation took effect.
Our sensitivity tests highlight the crucial role of dense monitoring networks in improving inversion reliability. The UK system expansions (2012, 2014) significantly enhanced result robustness, demonstrating the importance of comprehensive observational networks in refining emission estimates