20253 research outputs found
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ForestNavigator GLOBIOM-G4M-X Baseline (Deliverable 6.3)
No full textThis dataset presents the Baseline projection of GHG emissions and removals for forest land and harvested wood products from GLOBIOM-G4M-X for EU27 and the single Member States
Global Land / Water Mask Map with 0.3 arc sec. (10 m) Resolution
No full textA global Land/Water Mask Map with 0.3 arc sec. (10 m) resolution based on WorldCover map, open street map and Copernicus dem for the year 2020
A flexible model to reconstruct education-specific fertility rates: Sub-Saharan Africa case study
No full textThe future world population growth and size will be largely determined by the pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa. Correct estimates of education-specific fertility rates are crucial for projecting the future population. Yet, consistent cross-country comparable estimates of education-specific fertility for sub-Saharan African countries are still lacking. We propose a flexible Bayesian hierarchical model to reconstruct education-specific fertility rates by using the patchy Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) data and the United Nations’ (UN) reliable estimates of total fertility rates (TFR). Our model produces estimates that match the UN TFR to different extents (in other words, estimates of varying levels of consistency with the UN). We present three model specifications: consistent but not identical with the UN, fully-consistent (nearly identical) with the UN, and consistent with the DHS. Further, we provide a full time series of education-specific TFR estimates covering five-year periods between 1980 and 2014 for 36 sub-Saharan African countries. The results show that the DHS-consistent estimates are usually higher than the UN-fully-consistent ones. The differences between the three model estimates vary substantially in size across countries, yielding 1980-2014 fertility trends that differ from each other mostly in level only but in some cases also in direction
GEO-OPEN-HACK: an initiative on big geospatial data processing with open computing infrastructure and open tools
No full textTo maximize the potential of big geospatial data streams, they shall be processed on high-performance computing (HPC) infrastructure, whereas local code shall be adopted to use this infrastructure efficiently. This paper presents a non-profit initiative, GEO-OPEN-HACK, that aims at lowering the technical barrier for environmental scientists through one-week hackathons on open-source HPC processing approaches, such as openEO, Pangeo, and OEMC. We present the above solutions, hackathon setup, and analysis based on the pre-event questionnaire about the participants’ big data projects
More food, but less land and water for nature: Why agricultural productivity gains did not materialize
Get PDFRealism about productivity gains in agriculture and water is critical to understand if the world can feed itself while protecting nature. We use government-reported data to review progress over 2000–2020 compared to projections for irrigated and rainfed agriculture and trade. Our results over the period 2000–2020 show that productivity gains largely did not materialize. Instead of consolidating cereal production and trade in favourable regions like North America, Europe and Russia, their arable land declined by 35 million hectares, while arable land expanded by 74 million hectares in Africa, Latin America and Eastern Asia. Likewise, water productivity gains did not materialize, as photosynthesis breakthroughs did not occur. Land productivity (yield) gains were projected to rise 21–61 %, making the observed increase in cereal yields of 31 % a slight one. This puts the world on the path of using steadily more land and water to produce food and feed, at the expense of nature. Solutions to veer off this path include reducing food demand (including dietary change), stabilising rainfed agriculture and broadening the crop genetic resources base
The potential of rooftop photovoltaics to meet Dutch residential electricity demand under heat transition scenarios
No full textRooftop photovoltaics (RPVs) are essential for advancing energy transition and achieving climate goals. However, there is limited understanding of their future potential at a granular geographical level and their potential to meet future electricity demand from buildings under different heat transition scenarios. This study presents a comprehensive assessment of the RPV potential at the individual building level in the Netherlands, considering detailed building stock dynamics, renovation strategies, and heat transition scenarios. The results show that RPVs currently generate 3.86 TWh of electricity, with the potential to increase to 19.52 TWh. The total electricity demand of the residential building sector is about 27.26 TWh in 2020, which can increase significantly to 34.19–45.11 TWh by 2050, depending on heat pump penetration and renovation standards. RPVs alone can potentially meet about 43–57% of this electricity demand and save up to 11.32 Mt CO2-eq in 2050 (26% of current operational carbon emissions) if public grid electricity could be replaced by RPV electricity. However, the actual contribution of RPVs to the reduction/decarbonization of household electricity is subject to large uncertainties due to both the momentary and seasonal mismatch between RPV supply and electricity demand. Future research could increase the temporal resolution of our model to better explore the real potential of RPVs for targeted electrification and decarbonization in the building sector
Heterogeneities in landed costs of traded grains and oilseeds contribute to unequal access to food
Get PDFDespite the growing accessibility of international grain and oilseed markets, high production costs and trade frictions are still prevalent, contributing to regional heterogeneities in the landed cost of grain imports. Here we quantify the landed cost for six grain commodities across 3,500 administrative regions, capturing regional cost differences to produce grain and transport it across international borders. We find large heterogeneities in the costs of imported grain, which are highest in Oceania, Central America and landlocked Africa. While some regions have uniform landed costs across sourcing locations, others face cost variations across trading partners, showing large inequalities in access. We find that most regions could benefit from a targeted approach to reduce landed cost while others benefit from a mixed strategies approach. Our results highlight that spatial information on production, trade and transport is essential to inform policies aiming to build an efficient and resilient global agricultural commodity trade system
Policy mixes to promote the diffusion of battery electric vehicles with an agent-based model and experiments using the case of China
No full textBattery electric vehicles (BEVs) are effective tools for reducing carbon emissions. Incentive policies play an important role in promoting the development of emerging industries such as BEVs. The design of incentive policies to promote the diffusion of BEVs has been a critical focus in recent research. This study explores cost-effective financial incentive policies that consider regional heterogeneity. An agent-based model is developed that incorporates the individual heterogeneity of consumers and competition between BEVs and traditional internal combustion engine vehicles. The results indicate that consumer subsidies have a more direct promotional effect than manufacturer subsidies; however, this effect must be sustained by ongoing subsidies. Additionally, a policy mix is more efficient because an incentive policy can function better when combined with other policies. Furthermore, the inputs of subsidies are not “the more, the better,” and an appropriate mix of policies can result in better diffusion of BEVs. Finally, regional heterogeneities (e.g., potential market size and initial BEV ownership share) are important when designing incentive policies
Integration of UN sustainable development goals in national hydrogen strategies: A text analysis approach
Get PDFDespite the growing recognition of hydrogen's potential role in sustainable development, there is limited understanding of how national hydrogen strategies align with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This study addresses this knowledge gap by examining the integration of the SDGs into national hydrogen strategies through text analysis. Among 66 reviewed strategic documents, only 15 explicitly reference specific SDGs, though SDG-related keywords are widespread, particularly regarding SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and SDG 13 (Climate Action). Statistical analysis demonstrates a significant link between the presence of hydrogen strategies and both overall SDG performance and progress on most specific SDGs. However, countries with hydrogen strategies show lower scores for SDGs 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production) and 13, and there are no significant differences for SDGs 10 (Reduced Inequalities), 14 (Life below Water), and 15 (Life on Land). Our findings highlight the need for more explicit integration of SDGs into hydrogen strategies and better consideration of sustainability synergies and trade-offs, providing policymakers with evidence-based guidance for aligning hydrogen strategies with global sustainability objectives
Narratives for positive nature futures in Europe
Get PDFThe Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a novel tool for the development of positive scenarios centred on the relationship of nature and people, emphasising biodiversity as part of the solution to environmental challenges across various spatial and temporal scales, explicitly addressing a plurality of values for nature.
In this work, we describe the process that has led to the formulation of continental-scale positive narratives for conservation in Europe based on the NFF and its value perspectives (Nature for Nature; Nature for Society; Nature as Culture), through a stakeholder group elicitation. We focused on 6 topics in the narratives: Nature Protection and Restoration; Forestry; Freshwater Ecosystems; Urban Systems; Agriculture, and Energy. We analyse differences and similarities among the narratives across these topics.
We develop three novel Nature Futures narratives for Europe with contrasting perspectives and priorities for the six topics. Within the EU socioeconomic trends and policy framework, common solutions that simultaneously tackle biodiversity conservation and instrumental and cultural Nature’s Contributions to People (NCP) provision emerged.
This set of narratives may integrate preferences concerning EU-level conservation targets and plausible socio-ecological development pathways, supporting the modelling of positive scenarios for nature that can be crucial in guiding policy decisions towards recovery of nature