20253 research outputs found
Sort by
An empirical inquiry into the distributional consequences of energy price shocks
No full textWe estimate how energy shocks affect the functional distribution of income. Using structural vector autoregressions identified with an external instrument, we find that an increase in oil prices leads to a substantial and long-lasting decline in the wage share. Real aggregate wage income is significantly impacted, with a considerable part of this decline stemming from distributive dynamics. We also investigate possible asymmetries in the response to oil supply shocks, finding that the wage share is more sensitive to negative shocks than to positive ones. This suggests that wage earners lose from oil price hikes more than they benefit from declines
Using Google Trends to Analyze Public Sensitivity to Climate-Related Natural Hazards and its Correlation with Nuclear Topics: A Proxy Approach for Societal Impact and Risk Communication
No full textD3.4 Final report on forward-looking DRM pathways and recommendations for upscaling and transferability
No full textThe MYRIAD-EU project developed a systemic framework and a toolkit for multi-risk, multi-sector, and multi-scale Disaster Risk Management (DRM), tested across five diverse European Pilot Studies: North Sea, Canary Islands, Scandinavia, Danube, and Veneto. Between March 2022 and August 2025, each Pilot followed a co-designed, stepwise process to map hazards and vulnerabilities, select and apply tailored tools, and develop sets of forward-looking DRM pathways tailored to their multi-risk and multi-sector profile. The report illustrates both the final results and the methodological foundations and knowledge co-production process that led to those results. The report also discusses the various choices and assumptions made in each Pilot Study, the obstacles encountered, and the lessons learnt along the way. For instance, key findings highlight the importance of contextualizing tools, combining qualitative and quantitative approaches, and engaging stakeholders throughout, whereas governance fragmentation, data gaps, and limited systemic risk awareness emerged as common challenges. The MYRIAD-EU Pilot Studies serve as lighthouses for other European regions facing similar challenges and aiming to transition towards integrated, systemic multi-risk management
Minimum energy taxes for climate and clean air in the EU: Environmental and distributional impacts
No full textEU energy taxes could provide a powerful lever to enhance climate action, yet they are characterized by exemptions and are not aligned with climate and environmental goals. This paper assesses the environmental and distributional impacts a revised Energy Taxation Directive, broadening the tax base and increasing the minimum energy tax levels across energy sources, sectors, and EU countries. We combine an economy-wide general equilibrium model and a household-level microsimulation model to quantify the effects on emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants, tax revenue, poverty, inequality, and welfare. Three scenarios consider additive reforms as they gradually stack up energy, climate, and air pollution-based components in the design of minimum energy tax rates. These reforms raise effective energy taxation in the EU roughly by one quarter, by half, and by two-thirds, respectively. Removing exemptions and harmonizing tax rates based on energy content brings down CO2 and PM2.5 emissions in the EU by 2–3 %, with substantial heterogeneity across EU countries. Reform scenarios that add climate and air pollution-based tax components lead to stronger emission reductions and reveal environmental co-benefits, as CO2-based tax rates lower air pollutant emissions, and tax rates reflecting air pollution damages lower CO2 emissions. We furthermore quantify the social trade-off between emission reductions and inequality, and illustrate numerically that regressive impacts can be overcome through revenue recycling. The inequality-increasing price effect is partially offset by income-side impacts (before revenue recycling) but is strengthened by cross-country heterogeneity in energy use and taxation. Overall, our findings suggest that gearing the EU's energy tax structure towards environmental sustainability can help deliver a just transition when embedded in a broader policy package
Brazil Burning: The economic impact of climate change on South America
No full textAs host of COP30, Brazil will be at the centre of this year’s climate summit with the fate of the world’s most vulnerable people at stake. This report shows that the host nation also happens to be one of the most vulnerable countries in the region to climate change induced economic harm. The analysis, based on the latest scientific models, shows that Brazil’s GDP growth is expected to suffer a hit of up to one third (33.1%) by 2100 on current emissions trajectory known as the SSP2 - medium emissions scenario. This would result in global heating of approximately 2.9C by the end of the century, which closely matches UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2025 which says we’re on course for 2.8C by 2100. In this scenario the hit to GDP growth in 2075 it would be 19.8% and in 2050 it would be 10.4%.
Under a high emissions scenario (SSP3 – high emissions, which would see temperature rise in 2100 of 3.5C) Brazil would miss out on GDP growth of 12% by 2050, 25.3% by 2075 and 36.6% by 2100. However if global emissions are slowed, under a low emissions scenario (SSP2 – low emissions, 1.6C temperature rise by 2100) the economic harm could be limited to a GDP growth hit of 8.3% in 2050, 10.3% in 2075 and 17.7% in 2100.
As host, Brazil has a responsibility to the rest of the world to push for a strong outcome in Belém that will help deliver climate finance, reduce emissions and accelerate the ‘just transition’ away from fossil fuels.
As this report shows, South America already faces a changing climate which will have a significant impact on national economies, exacerbating problems around agriculture, tourism, human health and conflict
World Energy Outlook 2025
No full textThe IEA’s flagship World Energy Outlook (WEO) is the most authoritative source of global energy analysis and projections. Updated annually to reflect the latest energy data, technology and market trends, and government policies, it explores a range of possible energy futures and their implications for energy security, access and emissions.
The WEO covers the whole energy system, using a scenario-based approach to highlight the central choices, consequences and contingencies that lie ahead. It includes exploratory scenarios that flow from different assumptions about existing policies, as well as normative pathways that achieve energy and emissions goals in full. The multi-scenario approach illustrates how the course of the energy system might be affected by changing key variables, including the energy policies adopted by governments around the world.
This year’s edition comes amid major shifts in global energy policies and markets, and acute geopolitical strains. Governments are reaching different conclusions about the best ways to tackle concerns about energy security, affordability and sustainability. As always, the World Energy Outlook provides unrivalled insights into the consequences of different energy policy and investment choices. An important theme in this year’s WEO is security of supply of critical minerals
Explaining COVID-19 dynamics through user activity data from digital platforms with Yandex’s self-isolation index as a case study
No full textSocial-distancing measures were among the very few available policy responses to the initial outbreak of COVID-19, and they remain an important tool for containing recurring wavers of this and possible future pandemics. However, policies aiming at limiting the intensity of people-to-people contacts incur substantial socio-economic costs while their effectiveness varies over time and across locations. Having a robust way of measuring the level of people-to-people contacts and monitoring compliance with social-distancing policies would greatly aid governments in better calibrating their responses to future pandemic outbreaks. In this paper we use the case example of the Yandex's self-isolation index to explore the potential of composite indices that aggregate multiple sources of activity data collected by digital platforms as proxies for evaluating the people-to-people contact intensity. To this end, we propose two error-corrected autoregressive distributed-lag models, inspired by the classical SIR model of infectious disease dynamics, and use them in testing for cointegration between the self-isolation index and the official data on the numbers of new COVID-19 cases and deaths, for the two largest cities in Russia, Moscow and St. Petersburg. We have found evidence for such cointegration, which confirms that the COVID-19 epidemic curve can be explained by the level of people-to-people contact intensity as measured by the self-isolation index. Our findings suggest that the self-isolation index is a useful real-time indicator of the level of compliance with social distancing measures in the population and thus can serve as a reliable tool for informing policymaking
On the Consistency and Large Deviations of the Method of Empirical Means in Stochastic Programming Problems
No full textThe article presents a series of results concerning the empirical means method of stochastic optimization theory. The main attention is given to the study of the asymptotic behavior of empirical estimates and their convergence rate via large deviation theory for models with independent or weakly dependent random variables satisfying the strong mixing conditions. Models with discrete or continuous one-dimensional and multidimensional arguments are considered. Examples demonstrate the connection between the empirical means method and the methods of regression analysis and risk theory. The possibilities of using the empirical means method to solve a wide range of applied problems are indicated
Linkages between climate change, human mobility and security in South-Eastern Europe
No full textThis study was conducted in the context of the OSCE project, “Strengthening Responses to Security Risks from Climate Change in South-Eastern Europe, Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus and Central Asia” carried out by the Office of the Co-ordinator of OSCE Economic and Environmental Activities (OCEEA).
It builds on the findings of “Regional Assessment for South-Eastern Europe: Security implications of climate change” (Rüttinger et al. 2021), a report that identified mixed movement (of asylum seekers and migrants) and emigration as one of several regional climate-related challenges. In particular, it pointed out that high rates of emigration cause permanent depopulation of large parts of the region