20253 research outputs found
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Leveraging Digital Tools for Climate Change Adaptation: Opportunities, Challenges, and Pathways Forward
No full textDigital technologies, such as Geographic Information Systems, remote sensing, artificial intelligence, mobile applications, and participatory online platforms, offer significant opportunities to enhance climate change adaptation, providing advanced capabilities for monitoring environmental changes, predicting climate risks, and facilitating community engagement. Case studies from diverse contexts illustrate how digital tools successfully contribute to effective climate resilience. However, implementing digital solutions faces considerable obstacles, including the digital divide, data privacy and security concerns, and the need for solutions tailored to local conditions. Overcoming these barriers necessitates inclusive policy frameworks, extensive stakeholder engagement, capacity building, and international collaboration. Future adaptation efforts should prioritize continuous learning and adaptable policy frameworks that evolve alongside technological advancements to achieve sustainable, inclusive, and resilient climate solutions
How does industry-university-research collaborative green innovation affect regional carbon emissions? —nonlinear effects and multi-mechanism analysis
No full textAmid the deepening implementation of the "dual carbon" strategy, elucidating the multidimensional dynamics of industry-university-research (IUR) collaborative green innovation on regional carbon emissions holds critical significance for reconciling environmental governance with economic development. Leveraging panel data from 30 Chinese provinces (2010–2022), this study employs parametric and non-parametric approaches to decode the nonlinear impact of IUR collaborative green innovation on carbon emissions. Through moderated mediation models and spatial lag analysis, it systematically reveals operational mechanisms. Key findings include: (1) An inverted U-shaped relationship emerges-initial collaboration phases may elevate emissions, but sustained efforts progressively manifest emission reduction effects. (2) Technological substitution drives low-carbon transitions in polluting industries. While restructuring triggers transient carbon pulse peaks from cost surges, long-term trajectories follow inverted U-shaped patterns moderated by industrial composition and structural upgrading. (3) Initial U-shaped suppression effects stem from resource misallocation and adaptation costs, yet enhanced technological absorptive capacity elevates green total factor productivity (GTFP), enabling a 9.57% emission reduction through industrial transformation. (4) Spatiotemporal interactions evolve from short-term U-shaped spatial spillovers to long-term inverted U-shaped synergies, necessitating optimized policy coordination for dynamic emission reduction dividends. (5) Regional heterogeneity persists-eastern China demonstrates stable impacts through industrial maturity, contrasting with volatile central/western regions constrained by fragmented innovation ecosystems. This research advances understanding of collaborative innovation’s nonlinear carbon governance effects, offering actionable insights for regionalized decarbonization strategies and cross-regional innovation alliances
A System Reanalysis of the Current Greenhouse Gases Budget of Terrestrial Ecosystems in Russia
No full textThis study synthesizes the budgets of three greenhouse gases (GHG, namely CO2, CH4, N2O) for Russia over two decades (2000–2009 and 2010–2019) using bottom-up and top-down approaches, as part of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes, Phase 2 (RECCAP2). Published estimates of natural sources and sinks of these GHGs in Russia vary widely. Here, bottom-up estimates are based on eddy covariance measurements, the Integrated Land Information System of Russia (ILIS-LEA), field data, Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), and regional models. The bottom-up approach estimated Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) at −0.64 ± 0.17 and −0.57 ± 0.14 Pg C yr−1, for decades 2000–2009 and 2010–2019, respectively. Top-down atmospheric inversions provide similar NEE carbon flux estimates with comparable uncertainties at −0.56 ± 0.26 and −0.73 ± 0.27 Pg C yr−1 for the two decades. Differences between these approaches arise from distinct flux components and structural assumptions. ILIS-LEA indicates a slightly declining carbon sink in 2010–2019, driven by increased disturbances. In contrast, DGVMs suggest a stable carbon sink over both decades but they do not fully simulate the effects of disturbances and recovery. Top-down inversions reveal an increasing CO2 sink, suggesting with additional observed constraints on biomass carbon increment that soil and non-forest biomes absorb more carbon than predicted by DGVMs and ILIS-LEA models. A Bayesian averaging approach estimates natural ecosystems acting as a GHG sink with a land-to-atmosphere flux of −1.55 ± 0.91 and −1.47 ± 0.82 Pg CO2-eq. yr−1. Accounting for both natural and anthropogenic emissions across the Russian territory shifts the net GHG balance to a source around 1.2 Pg CO2-eq. yr−1
Small increases in material stocks to achieve decent living standards globally
No full textGlobal inequalities in resource use leave billions below decent living standards (DLS)—a proposal of universal minimum service levels required to meet essential human needs. Although research has examined the energy use and greenhouse gas emission implications of achieving universal DLS, little is known about the necessary expansion of societies’ material stocks in buildings, infrastructure and machinery. Here we estimate that closing global DLS gaps would require an increase of approximately 12% in the existing material stocks of society, if efforts to expand these stocks are devoted exclusively to meet DLS. At current construction rates, this could be accomplished by 2030. However, if historical trends of unequal growth of material stocks driven by demands beyond DLS persist, the material stock requirements for DLS could increase tenfold, risking the achievement of sustainable development and climate change mitigation goals. To achieve DLS for all while limiting environmental pressures, it is essential to prioritize expansion of material stocks for closing DLS gaps and to critically asses stock expansion for demands beyond DLS—especially in affluent regions. Such a strategy could ensure universal DLS at more sustainable resource use levels
Projections of future agricultural management and crop choice under shared socioeconomic pathways
No full textFuture agricultural landscapes will likely be shaped by the interplay between socioeconomic developments and natural conditions. However, existing theory-driven, process-based models often rely on idealized assumptions, limiting their capacity to capture real-world complexities fully. To complement these methods through an observational, data-driven approach, we developed a novel global dataset utilizing a statistical fixed-effects model. This paper presents a novel global dataset detailing projections of harvested area allocation for ten major crop groups across 197 countries and regions from 2020 to 2100. The dataset was generated using a statistical fixed-effects model calibrated on historical data. It includes annual projections under six distinct SSP-RCP scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5). For each scenario, the dataset provides future trajectories for key national agricultural management inputs—including nitrogen application rates, irrigation extents, and mechanization levels—and the resulting projected cropping shares. This dataset is designed to support assessments of food security, trade policy, and environmental impacts by providing a consistent, data-driven set of future agricultural landscape patterns
Time to fully account for cost in monitoring financial protection and universal health coverage in low- and middle-income settings
No full textFinancial protection is a core pillar of universal health coverage (UHC), yet current monitoring approaches in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) largely focus on direct medical costs, neglecting direct transport costs and indirect time costs lost when seeking care. This commentary highlights the importance of fully accounting for these often-excluded costs, which disproportionately affect poorer and rural populations and can significantly hinder access to essential health services and lead to foregone care. We outline five priority areas for action, including improved measurement of transport and time costs through household surveys, methodological advancements in valuing time, increased investment in primary health care to reduce physical access barriers, adaptation of financing schemes and social protection programs to cover non-medical costs, and a multisectoral approach to address structural determinants. Fully integrating these dimensions into financial protection metrics and policies is critical for ensuring more equitable progress toward UHC in LMICs
FeliX ISE: An Interactive and Participatory Tool for Exploring Behaviour Change Scenarios in the Food System
No full textIntegrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are essential tools for informing climate policy, yet their technical complexity often limits their accessibility to non-experts, including policymakers, civil society, and local practitioners. This limitation is particularly critical today, as effective climate action increasingly depends on inclusive, cross-sectoral decision-making that spans technological, economic, and socio-cultural systems.
To bridge this accessibility gap, we developed an Interactive Simulation Environment (ISE)— a user-friendly interface that abstracts the complexity of IAMs into an intuitive, participatory tool. While part of a broader effort to democratize IAMs, this tool is unique in its focus on behavioral change within the food system—a sector with a substantial environmental footprint and high potential for demand-side mitigation through dietary shifts, and reductions in food loss and waste. By enabling stakeholders to adjust key assumptions and parameters, the tool makes the underlying complexity more transparent, thereby enhancing its practical relevance for real-world decision-making.
At the core of the ISE is the Full of Economic-Environment Linkages and Integration dX/dt (FeliX), a system dynamics-based IAM that captures interlinkages between economic, environmental, and social systems. Crucially, FeliX incorporate behavioural feedbacks—such as the influence of social norms and perceived self-efficacy—which shape the extent to which food-related transformations occur. Because social norms and self-efficacy can accelerate or dampen consumption changes at a population level, incorporating these behavioral feedbacks reveals how individual shifts may scale into broader systemic impacts.
The ISE is designed to support intuitive and interactive exploration of a diverse range of scenarios. Users can experiment with behavioural factors related to dietary change as well as food waste and loss to observe in real time their implications across multiple environmental systems—including land use, climate, fertilizer use, biodiversity, and water. A distinctive feature is the ability to compare multiple scenarios side-by-side using shared graphical outputs, which facilitates both reflection and dialogue around possible futures.
Initial lessons from a stakeholder workshop revealed insights into the disconnect between expert-driven models and user expectations. A notable tension emerged around how the system-scale, feedback-oriented logic embedded in the FeliX model (e.g. behavior diffusion through social norms), could be at odds with the individual-scale mental models of users, who understandably seek more direct, causal narratives (e.g., "if I stop eating meat, what changes?"). This highlights the importance of thoughtful framing and clear, context-sensitive communication that can bridge the differing scales, allowing for more meaningful and constructive engagement.
We propose to present a demonstration of the tool at the Scenarios Forum to illustrate its potential in supporting inclusive scenario development processes. Through some hands-on exercises, we aim to spark broader discussion on how to design interactive tools that not only simplify access but also enhance co-creation, engagement, and trust among stakeholders who bring diverse perspectives and expertise. In doing so, we hope to contribute to the ongoing innovation of methodological approaches in participatory scenario development for greater robustness and inclusivity
The Cyprus Database of Alien Species (CyDAS)
No full textInvasive alien species (IAS) are a direct driver of global biodiversity loss, and can also affect societies, economies and human health. Maintaining up-to-date alien species inventories is important for informing policy and management decisions. Here we present the Cyprus Database of Alien Species (CyDAS), an openly accessible, online dataset providing informational resources on alien species on the island of Cyprus. The dataset (up to end of December 2023) includes information on 1,293 terrestrial, freshwater and marine introduced taxa, with species profiles being constantly updated to keep track of new arrivals. The CyDAS aims to catalogue and supplement our knowledge on the alien species of Cyprus; to help develop and enhance early warning and rapid response systems; to raise public awareness of the risks posed by the IAS subset; to strengthen and enhance engagement and public participation in surveys in the field of biological invasions; and to inform IAS policy. CyDAS is a free, online database and we would like to encourage other researchers and decision-makers to provide information on IAS
Large regional variation in global impacts of agriculture on terrestrial insects and other arthropods
No full textMany insects and other arthropods are reported to be in rapid decline worldwide, mainly driven by changes in land use and climate. At the same time, arthropods provide many important services that benefit agriculture, and thus their losses may pose risks to food security. Although biodiversity responses vary between global realms, this spatial heterogeneity is not well-understood and is rarely addressed in global analyses. To understand the geographical variation of biodiversity change better, we investigated the responses of arthropod diversity to agricultural land use and intensity for six geopolitical regions, using a global dataset of biodiversity records. We show that agricultural intensification generally leads to average biodiversity declines, but we find large variation in responses per region. Notably, responses in Europe are minimal or even significantly positive. Further investigation suggests that responses in Europe may be attributable to a combination of a primary vegetation baseline that is subject to comparatively high levels of disturbance and fragmentation, and significant compositional changes that have favoured widespread generalists and non-native species. Conversely, narrow-ranging habitat specialists, particularly of forests, are associated with significant declines. These findings have important consequences for global biodiversity assessments and associated predictions of ecosystem service delivery, which are likely underestimating land use impacts on biodiversity by relying on statistical model coefficients that are heavily biased towards Europe and may fail to report important compositional changes by focussing analyses solely on species richness and total abundance