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Expert perspectives on incorporating justice considerations into integrated assessment modelling
Get PDFThere is growing criticism aimed towards global integrated assessment models (IAMs) and an ongoing academic debate on how justice considerations can be incorporated in those models. By relying on 39 interviews with a multidisciplinary group of experts, we map three shapes of change containing multiple avenues for incorporating justice considerations into IAM tools and scenarios: to improve representation within IAMs (Shape 1), to couple to new models and expand points of access to disciplines and users (Shape 2), and to refine the role of IAMs within a wider array of practices (Shape 3). These shapes reflect multi-disciplinary agreements and divergences over the capacity of IAMs to incorporate justice considerations—regarding kinds of representation, greater involvement of new disciplines and users, and the objective of mitigation scenarios in climate policy. Our analysis is among the first to describe and integrate a variety of opinions from different communities, fostering a more holistic understanding of the opportunities and challenges of incorporating justice into IAMs
Higher income is associated with greater life satisfaction, and more stress
Get PDFIs there a cost to our well-being from increased affluence? Drawing upon responses from 2.05 million U.S. adults from the Gallup Daily Poll from 2008 to 2017 we find that with household income above ~$63,000 respondents are more likely to experience stress. This contrasts with the trend below this threshold, where at higher income the prevalence of stress decreases. Such a turning point for stress was also found for population sub-groups, divided by gender, race, and political affiliation. Further, we find that respondents who report prior-day stress have lower life satisfaction for all income and sub-group categories compared to the respondents who do not report prior-day stress. We find suggestive evidence that among the more satisfied, healthier, socially connected, and those not suffering basic needs deprivations, this turn-around in stress prevalence starts at lower values of income and stress. We hypothesize that stress at higher income values relates to lifestyle factors associated with affluence, rather than from known well-being deprivations related to good health and social conditions, which may arise even at lower income values if conventional needs are met
Future scenarios for urban agriculture and food security in sub-Saharan Africa: Modelling the urban land-food system in an agent-based approach
No full textFood systems in sub-Saharan African cities are increasingly pressured by rapid urban sprawl and socio-economic changes. While land conversion from cropland to built-up area is limiting the opportunity for urban agriculture, food demand is rising because of population growth and changing diets. Meanwhile, socio-economic segregation – often associated with urbanization - can hinder access to food. For the case study of Kampala (Uganda), we spatiotemporally model the land-food system using an agent-based approach. Based on 747 household surveys, we recalibrated the Agent-based model of Social Segregation and Urban Expansion (ASSURE) by Vermeiren et al. (2016) and included food system dynamics to assess future trajectories (2020–2040) of Kampala's dependency on urban agriculture. While food that is both produced and consumed within the city is often considered the most resilient food source in times of crisis, we show that it is particularly this source that is threatened. Overall, about 10 % of the urban and peri-urban agricultural land in Kampala is projected to disappear by 2040. This may lead to decreased levels of food security and dietary diversity, particularly for households that strongly rely on urban agriculture. Information on the links between urban growth and local food provision is essential for planners who aim to develop strategies for more secure, just and sustainable African urban food systems
Chapter 1: Bringing Clean Air, Better Health, A Stable Climate and Other Benefits to the ASEAN Region
Get PDFVirtual water-embodied carbon nexus in the new energy system: A case study of solar photovoltaic in China
No full textElectricity production is associated with significant water resource consumption and carbon emissions. China's energy-related water consumption and CO2 emissions undergo dramatic changes with a transition from traditional fossil energy to renewable energy utilization, while the impacts of renewable energy on virtual water and embodied carbon emission have not been well understood. This study analyzes the nexus between virtual water and embodied carbon in China's electricity system, examining renewable energy's impact on water and carbon metrics under different substitution scenarios. This study reveals significant provincial disparities in photovoltaic deployment potential for replacing coal-fired power. Provinces like Beijing and Shanghai require interregional electricity transmission due to insufficient local PV potential, while Inner Mongolia and Tibet can achieve coal replacement by utilizing <5 % of their PV capacity. All provincial power grids will reduce the carbon emission intensity for power generation but not for water consumption intensity with the increase of solar PV substitution. In the long run, the substitution of solar PV contributes to a significant reduction in CO2 emissions and adjusts the embodied carbon network of the power system. This study provides insights for optimizing the virtual water and embodied carbon networks and promotes sustainable development of the power industry in China
Deviations from Normality in Autocorrelation Functions and Their Implications for MA(q) Modeling
Get PDFThe identification of the orders of time series models plays a crucial role in their accurate specification and forecasting. The Autocorrelation Function (ACF) is commonly used to identify the order q of Moving Average (MA(q)) models, as it theoretically vanishes for lags beyond q. This property is widely used in model selection, assuming the sample ACF follows an asymptotic normal distribution for robustness. However, our examination of the sum of the sample ACF reveals inconsistencies with these theoretical properties, highlighting a deviation from normality in the sample ACF for MA(q) processes. As a natural extension of the ACF, the Extended Autocorrelation Function (EACF) provides additional insights by facilitating the simultaneous identification of both autoregressive and moving average components. Using simulations, we evaluate the performance of q-order identification in MA(q) models, which is based on the properties of ACF. Similarly, for ARMA(p,q) models, we assess the (p,q)-order identification relying on EACF. Our findings indicate that both methods are effective for sufficiently long time series but may incorrectly favor an ARMA(p,q−1) model when the aq coefficient approaches zero. Additionally, if the cumulative sums of ACF (SACF) behave consistently and the Ljung–Box test validates the proposed model, it can serve as a strong candidate. The proposed models should then be compared based on their predictive performance. We illustrate our methodology with an application to wind speed data and sea surface temperature anomalies, providing practical insights into the relevance of our findings
Maximizing CAP impact: Advancing Climate, Biodiversity, and Farm Profitability Through Strategic Action.
Get PDFThis analysis is based on new land-use management data from the Horizon Europe LAMASUS project, integrating biophysical crop and grass simulations, biodiversity models, and farm-level cost assessments. Environmental benefits are measured by biodiversity intactness (compared to pristine habitats) and CO₂-equivalent emissions from agricultural areas, including non-CO₂ greenhouse gases such as methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O). While the climate benefits alone would not justify the cost, these measures are highly cost-effective for biodiversity: win-win areas are identified where a €350 per hectare annual production loss results in both a 1-ton CO₂-equivalent reduction and a 1% gain in biodiversity intactness—making this a biodiversity-driven strategy with meaningful climate co-benefits
Co-drivers of air pollutant and CO2 emissions in China from 2000 to 2020
Get PDFRevealing how historical energy and environmental policies interacted with socioeconomic factors to shape the trends in air pollutant and CO2 emissions is crucial for developing effective future pollution-carbon co-control strategies. Here, we develop an integrated analytical framework combining a detailed sectoral emission inventory, index decomposition analysis, and a clustering algorithm to investigate China's synergetic patterns of air pollutant and CO2 emissions across 15 socioeconomic sectors from 2000 to 2020 and uncover the co-drivers behind these trends, with detailed temporal, sectoral, and spatial dynamics revealed. Our analysis suggests that historical policies have effectively curbed air pollutant emissions, while abating CO2 emissions remains a challenge. Energy and climate policies, particularly those focused on structural adjustments, are increasingly instrumental in driving pollution-carbon co-reduction. Compared to the earlier period, the fractional contribution of energy and climate policies to emission reductions of SO2, NOx, PM2.5, and CO2 increased by 1.3-8.6 times during 2010-2020, respectively. Substantial regional heterogeneity in emission co-drivers underscores the need for tailored strategies, such as adopting advanced energy-saving technologies in areas dominated by energy-intensive industries and accelerating the clean energy transition in regions endowed with renewable resources. Our study would provide actionable insights for formulating effective pollution-carbon co-control strategies in China and beyond
European Interest in China: Analyzing Search Behavior Across EU Countries Using Google Trends. Working Paper No. 13
Get PDFPublic interest in China within Europe is shaped by a complex interplay of geopolitical, economic, cultural, and technological factors. This study analyzes Google Trends data from 2024 to examine how EU countries engage with China-related topics through online search behavior. By clustering search topics into thematic categories – culture and traditions, geopolitics, economy and trade, travel and tourism, and sports and entertainment – this study identifies key patterns and regional variations in public interest. Findings reveal a widespread fascination with Chinese cultural elements, growing attention to China’s role in electric vehicle markets, heightened awareness of China’s geopolitical position, and increasing engagement with Chinese digital content and e-commerce platforms. The study highlights the value of search data in capturing organic public curiosity and provides insights into how European societies navigate and interpret information about China in an era of global interconnectedness
Optimal energy management of multi-carrier energy system considering uncertainty in renewable generation
Get PDFThis paper presents a structured approach for the efficient operation of multi-carrier energy systems under the uncertainty of renewable energy sources. As the penetration of wind and solar energy increases, managing the resulting variability becomes critical to maintaining both economic efficiency and operational flexibility. To address this, a two-stage multi objective optimization framework is proposed. In the first stage, the objective is to minimize daily operational costs while incorporating the uncertain behavior of renewables using a scenario-based stochastic approach. The second stage focuses on simultaneously enhancing system flexibility by maximizing the available capacities for both electrical and thermal energy generation and improving green house emissions. To evaluate system adaptability, two performance indicators are introduced: the Average Energy Generation Flexibility Index (AEGFI) and the Average Thermal Generation Flexibility Index (ATGFI). The optimization model is solved using the Modified Water Evaporation algorithm. Sensitivity analyses are also conducted to explore the effects of fluctuations in gas and electricity prices on system performance. The proposed model is applied to a generalized multi-carrier energy system. Simulation results demonstrate significant improvements in flexibility, with AEGFI and ATGFI increasing by 27.43% and 39.91%, respectively. Overall, the framework offers a comprehensive solution to balance cost-effectiveness and flexibility in energy systems with high shares of renewables