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Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture system in China: historical dynamics and key drivers
No full textAgriculture is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To clarify long-term trends and drivers, we estimate provincial agricultural GHG emissions in China from 2000–2020 using a life-cycle assessment (LCA) framework and apply Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition. Total emissions rose 10.71% (1250.96→1384.99 Mt), peaking in 2017 before declining. Across sources, agri-materials and manure management were the largest contributors in cropping and livestock systems, respectively. LMDI attributes emissions growth primarily to agricultural development, while improvements in emissions intensity offset part of this increase; urbanization generally exerted a smaller positive effect, and labor reductions dampened emissions. Regional heterogeneity is pronounced: northern (Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi) and central (Henan, Hubei) provinces show fluctuating increases; the north-east exhibits steady growth; and the south-west (Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou) shows a fluctuating decline. These results highlight the need for region-specific mitigation strategies, emphasizing input efficiency, manure management, and structural adjustments to advance low-carbon agricultural development
From intention to action: Modeling student lifestyle carbon emissions and reduction scenarios
No full textUniversity students, as future decision-makers and practitioners, play a pivotal role in advancing carbon neutrality by 2060. Their awareness and behaviors are highly malleable during university education, with long-term impacts extending beyond campus boundaries. Using Peking University as a case study, this research quantifies the carbon footprint of students' lifestyles, develops a structural equation model (SEM) of low-carbon behavior mechanisms, and evaluates lifestyle-based emission reduction scenarios. Results show that food and transportation are the major contributors to students’ carbon footprints, reflecting a paradox of “high support but low motivation” toward low-carbon practices. While changes in individual cognition are necessary, they yield limited mitigation benefits. Scenario simulations demonstrate that synergistic interventions from campuses, communities, and broader society can amplify emission reductions by up to 40 %, offering a scalable pathway for universities to pioneer behavior-driven decarbonization. This study thus provides both empirical evidence and a practical framework for building zero-carbon campuses and cultivating societal transitions toward sustainability
Strategic flood risk management over time. Applying a temporal lens to see how flood risk management measures are (or are not) implemented
No full textStrategic flood risk management of river catchments involves significant increases in the complexity both of the contents (e.g. the aims and measures) of a given strategy and also its social, spatial, and temporal scales. Conceptually, flood risk management research to date has underestimated the importance of time and temporality. This paper, which is based on ‘historical Institutionalism,’ introduces a temporal lens to focus on strategic flood risk management; it highlights issues of duration and timing as well as tempo and change in tempo with respect to the implementation of measures to reduce flood risk at catchment level. The application of a temporal lens is illustrated through empirical research into strategic flood risk management for the medium-sized Aist river catchment in Austria. The paper uses a longitudinal qualitative research design to analyze the changes in strategic flood risk management in the catchment. The analysis shows that strategy efforts in reaction to an extreme flood event in the catchment in August 2002 can be differentiated into three phases. Phase 1 is characterized by the design of ambitious catchment-wide management; Phase 2 by struggles to implement the strategy due to institutional conditions and protests by citizens; and Phase 3 by redesign of the initial strategic plan to make it less ambitious and by changes to the actor constellation supporting the plan. The present paper offers a process-oriented institutional explanation for this pattern of phases, and it highlights issues of timing and tempo. It concludes with general suggestions for enhancing the temporal dimension in flood risk management
Cropping history, agronomic rules, and commodity prices shape crop rotations across Central Europe
No full textContext
Crop rotations provide agronomic benefits over monocropping, such as enhanced nitrogen supply, improved weed and pest control, and higher yields. Although the theoretical understanding of optimal rotations has advanced, little is known about their real-world implementation and the factors influencing rotation decisions on large scales.
Objective
Understanding these factors is key for projecting future cropping patterns, refining agricultural policy, and improving crop models that often oversimplify rotation practices. This study identifies the drivers influencing operational crop rotations across Central Europe and projects future cropping patterns in the region.
Methods
We analyse over 16 million field-year combinations from Germany, Austria, and the Czech Republic. Using a random forest algorithm, we determine feature importance and apply a novel machine learning approach that incorporates uncertainty in farmers' decision-making to provide a potential outlook on cropping patterns until 2070.
Results and Conclusions
Historical cropping patterns, agronomic practices, and legume commodity prices significantly shaped crop rotations across the region. Projections indicate a substantial increase in legume cultivation over the coming decades, with implications for nitrogen budgets, dietary transitions, and in-silico upscaling.
Significance
Rather than optimizing rotations, this study identifies key drivers of operational crop rotations in Central Europe. The findings provide the basis for large-scale simulations that represent cropping patterns more realistically. To the best of our knowledge, the data set compiled here is the most extensive yet analysed in the context of operational crop rotation management
Wellbeing cost of carbon
No full textHuman wellbeing is the guiding goal of many public policies, yet its complexity often prevents present measurement and future projections of it. Here, using a global model and a wellbeing measure called Years of Good Life (YoGL) , we show how climate change, economy, and social conditions together shape people's long-term wellbeing. We also introduce the ‘wellbeing cost of carbon' metric, which is similar to the social cost of carbon but measures the wellbeing loss due to carbon emissions instead of only economic loss. The results highlight that younger generations pay the highest price unless strong climate action is taken.
Technical Summary
Human wellbeing is the ultimate end of sustainable development alongside planetary wellbeing. It relies on complex interactions between natural and social systems, including those between climate change, economic growth, and human mortality. Despite extensive analyses of individual climate impacts, their combined effects on long-term wellbeing are sparsely examined. Using a dynamic systems model of global climate, economy, environment, and society relationships and employing YoGL as an empirical wellbeing indicator, we present wellbeing projections in diverse socioeconomic and climate scenarios, and calculate the loss of human wellbeing due to carbon emissions. In a climate-optimistic scenario, 20-year-old females and males gain 10.4 and 7.5 YoGL, respectively, on average by 2100, while a pessimistic scenario reduces it by 8.5 and 11.3 years. Physical health remains the most restraining driver of long-term human wellbeing, while indirect climate impacts on education and poverty also reduce it by a similar extent in a climate-pessimistic scenario. The younger generations bear a much higher wellbeing cost of carbon unless strong climate action is taken. This study offers a new quantitative, empirically grounded and integrated perspective on climate impacts on human wellbeing, expanding beyond economic damages and the social cost of carbon.
Social Media Summary
Climate choices today shape our future wellbeing: Strong action boosts ‘good life’ years, inaction takes it away
Ten new insights in climate science 2025
No full textNon-Technical SummaryThis review highlights 10 recent advances in climate change research with high policy relevance, spanning diverse topics: (1) the global temperature jump of 2023–2024; (2) sea surface warming and marine heatwaves; (3) land carbon sinks; (4) interactions between climate change and biodiversity loss; (5) accelerated groundwater decline; (6) global dengue incidence; (7) income and labour productivity loss; (8) strategic considerations for scaling carbon dioxide removal (CDR); (9) integrity of carbon credit markets; and (10) policy mixes for climate change mitigation.Technical SummaryInterdisciplinary understanding is vital for delivering sound climate policy advice. However, navigating the ever-growing and increasingly diverse scholarly literature on climate change is challenging for any individual researcher. This annual synthesis highlights and explains recent advances across a variety of fields of climate change research. This year, the 10 insights focus on: (1) the record-warmth of 2023/2024 and the elevated Earth energy imbalance; (2) acceleration of ocean warming and intensifying marine heatwaves; (3) northern land carbon sinks under strain; (4) reinforcing feedback between biodiversity loss and climate change; (5) accelerated depletion of groundwater; (6) global dengue incidence; (7) global income losses and labour productivity declines; (8) strategic scaling of CDR; (9) integrity challenges in carbon credit markets and emerging responses; and (10) effective policy mixes for emissions reductions. The insights have been written to be accessible to researchers from different fields, serving as entry-points to specific topics, as well as providing an overview of the evolving landscape of climate change research. In the final section, the insights are used to develop overarching policy-relevant messages. This paper provides the basis for a science-policy report that was shared with all Party delegations ahead of COP30 in Belém, Brazil.Social Media SummaryHighlights of climate change research in 2024–2025: 10insightsclimate.scienc
Multiple introductions of invasive alien species on a Mediterranean Island predicted by horizon scanning
No full textIn 2017 and 2019 two horizon scan workshops were undertaken for the island of Cyprus, which focused on making predictions about the invasive alien species (IAS) most likely to arrive and impact biodiversity, human health and the economy. Herein, we assess the species lists derived from these two horizon scans and consider the accuracy of the predictions so far. In less than ten years, 26 new IAS were found in Cyprus, 10 out of which were predicted to arrive by the horizon scans. Eight introduced IAS were ranked as high risk during the horizon scanning process. Horizon scanning helped raise awareness amongst the authorities, scientists and the public, leading in some cases to a rapid response by the competent authorities to control the arrival. We conclude that horizon scanning is a useful process that can inform contingency planning and action. Furthermore, it facilitates communication between IAS experts, policy makers and society, encouraging active engagement and raising awareness regarding the importance of early warning, rapid response and management of IAS. We propose that the horizon scanning process for the island of Cyprus is repeated regularly, recognizing the ongoing increase in the number of new IAS arriving year on year
From Paris to practice: a knowledge-mapping to climate justice research in developed and developing countries
No full textClimate justice has emerged as a central concern in global climate governance, yet the production, visibility, and conceptual framing of related scholarship remain uneven across world regions. This study presents a large-scale comparative bibliometric and qualitative analysis of climate-justice research in developed and developing countries from 2004 to 2024. Using Scopus and the Web of Science, we identified 1628 records and retained 757 publications after systematic screening. Performance indicators, keyword co-occurrence networks, and qualitative thematic analysis were employed to map the field's intellectual structure and evolution. Publication activity increased sharply following major policy milestones-particularly COP15 and the Paris Agreement-reflecting shifts in international discourse and funding priorities. Research from developed countries (566 publications) predominantly centers on distributive justice, carbon governance, and policy integration, supported by strong research infrastructures. In contrast, scholarship from developing countries (191 publications) emphasizes vulnerability, adaptation, procedural justice, and historical responsibility, shaped by lived climate risks and diverse epistemological traditions. Persistent disparities in publication and citation patterns reveal structural inequities linked to language dominance, database coverage biases, and unequal access to high-impact journals. To interpret these patterns, the study introduces a reflexive heuristic framework that illustrates how justice concerns are articulated-or marginalized-across different governance contexts. The findings underscore the need for more inclusive research infrastructures, expanded open-access publishing, and equitable North-South collaborations that recognize and support diverse knowledge systems. By integrating bibliometric mapping with qualitative interpretation, this research advances a more critical, context-sensitive understanding of global climate-justice scholarship and highlights the urgency of strengthening research capacity and epistemic inclusion, particularly in the Global South
Long run emulator calibration increases warming and sea-level rise projections
No full textOwing to their short runtime compared to Earth system models (ESMs), as well as the difficulty for the latest ESMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to reproduce historical warming and the so-called ‘hot model problem’, constrained reduced-complexity climate models (‘emulators’) are increasingly used to produce global warming projections from emissions scenarios. Emulators are often calibrated on idealised abrupt CO 2 quadrupling experiments from CMIP6, particularly the global surface temperature response over time to an imposed radiative forcing. Such CMIP6 experiments tend to be run for 150 years, which is not sufficient to reveal the full equilibrium response to an imposed climate forcing. Here we show that, when longer experiments are available for emulator calibration, the long-term climate warming projections increase, particularly for 2100, by up to 0.70 (0.42–0.93, 25th to 75th percentile) °C in the median under a high emissions scenario; peak global warming in a high overshoot scenario is higher by 0.24 °C (0.14–0.31 °C). Corresponding long-term thermosteric sea level rise (SLR) is consequently higher, by 0.45 (0.22–0.52, 25th to 75th percentile) m in 2500. This result, consistent across calibrations from 17 ESMs, has implications for climate change mitigation strategies, as it is likely that even more stringent emissions reductions would be required to limit long-term warming and SLR than previously thought
Multidimensional synergistic adaptation enhances the systemic resilience in China’s food security
No full textHow to manage the compounding risks to national food security is a major issue of global concern. China, as the world’s largest producer of staple foods, has steadily strengthened its food security level, profoundly impacting global food systems. In this review, we propose a systemic resilience framework (the ability to predict, absorb, rebound from and adapt to disruptions) to analyze the evolution of China’s food security and explore its driving factors and multidimensional adaptations. China’s food security resilience has progressed through three distinct stages: low resilience (achieving basic sufficiency), medium resilience (achieving nutritional adequacy) and above-medium resilience (embracing sustainability). Multidimensional synergistic adaptation—integrating agricultural, climatic, socioeconomic and land-use strategies—has been key to these achievements. While agricultural advancements have significantly bolstered China’s food security, the growing pressures of climate change threaten to undermine these achievements. We project that China’s staple food self-sufficiency will remain above 98%, yet the overall food balance is expected to tighten under the combined pressures of dietary shifts and resource constraints. To better enhance the systemic resilience in China’s food security, China can buffer climate- and water-related shocks by expanding high-standard farmland, ease resource and demand pressures by enforcing anti-food-waste laws, strengthen soil and water resilience through nature-based solutions, and dampen trade volatility with integrated climate–market early-warning systems. Insights from China’s experience provide targeted levers for enhancing food-system resilience elsewhere