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Assessing potential implications of the EU's carbon dioxide removal strategy on Brazil's land ecosystems and local communities
No full textThe European Union (EU)'s commitment to achieving climate neutrality by 2050 relies significantly on Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) strategies, yet implications of such approaches for the Global South remain unclear. Here we reflect on how land-based CDR ambitions in the EU-particularly BECCS-may generate disproportionate pressures on ecosystems and communities in countries like Brazil, which have become a focal point for climate mitigation due to their biophysical potential and geopolitical ties. Although Brazil is not formally committed to providing land-based offsets to the EU, its significant potential to host large-scale afforestation and BECCS projects renders it a useful case study for exploring these dynamics. Under a stylised exploratory scenario in which Brazil accommodates the full external land demand for BECCS, we estimate that up to 10.2 million hectares (Mha) would be needed by 2030, and between 100.3 and 152.5 Mha by 2050. This level of land use could lead to substantial socioenvironmental risks, including deforestation, biodiversity loss, water scarcity, and the displacement of local and indigenous communities. Drawing on past experiences with extractive green initiatives, we identify risks associated with predatory green projects-such as land use conflicts, food insecurity, and the erosion of Indigenous rights and knowledge-which raise concerns aligned with notions of green neocolonialism. Furthermore, this increased demand for land could jeopardise Brazil's capacity to achieve its netzero GHG pledge by 2050, which relies heavily on nature-based solutions, such as ending deforestation and promoting large-scale native vegetation restoration. We recommend a set of integrated and participatory policy approaches that prioritise procedural justice, ensure transparent international cooperation, and mitigate the unintended impacts of global CDR strategies on vulnerable ecosystems and communities. This work advances the conceptual understanding of the multi-layer environmental and social implications of the EU's CDR strategy, highlighting its transboundary effects and potential tensions between Global North priorities and Global South equity considerations
Oil crops for sustainable biomaterials. Opportunities for current and future sustainable oil crop production: Exploring Carinata and Coconut
Full text linkSustainable vegetable oil production is key to supplying the bioeconomy with raw material. As it is also a food ingredient, sustainable production options are urgently needed. This study uses the Roundtable on Sustainable Biomaterials (RSB) criteria as a guide to define sustainable production, and soil conservation principles inform the selection of the vegetable oil production systems and explores: i) coconut (as a single crop and in intercropping) in Southeast and South Asia and tropical regions of the Americas; and ii) carinata as a winter cover crop in Europe and the Americas. The RSB sustainability principles were formalized in several analytical steps accounting for land management, environmental protection, GHG emission savings and land quality. The Global Agro-ecological Zones (GAEZ) modelling framework is used to assess the sustainable vegetable oil production potential under current (2001-2020) and future (2050s) climates.
Carinata oil from winter fallow is concentrated in temperate regions. Countries with significant opportunities include Argentina, with an annual production potential of 15.9 Mt, followed by the USA (15.4 Mt), Spain (4.3 Mt), France (3.0 Mt) and Brazil (2.8 Mt), when cultivated on prime and good land under current climate. High prices can make moderately suitable land economically viable. In Argentina, this could increase production to 22.2 Mt, using almost two-thirds (64%) of current cropland. Climate change has a positive impact on carinata winter cover in North America and Western Europe. The acreage in southern USA suitable for growing carinata as a winter fallow could increase vegetable oil production up to 19.6 Mt by 2050s due to warmer temperatures and sufficient rainfall. Climate change has either no or a slight positive effect in South America.
Of the tropical regions examined in this study, the main production areas for coconut that meet sustainability criteria are in South America, Southeast Asia and South Asia. The type of sustainable coconut production strategy chosen depends on current land use patterns. In South America, unprotected grass- and shrubland could be used for coconut monocropping on REMAIN land, i.e., land that remains after environmental and food security criteria have been met. In South America today, up to 18.8 Mt (Tall coconut), 15.3 Mt (Hybrid coconut), or 10.5 Mt (Dwarf coconut) of vegetable oil could be produced annually using only the best quality land. Exploring coconut intercropping with fodder crops (only for Tall and Hybrid varieties), additional unprotected REMAIN land that is currently used for roaming livestock, increases production, in South America up to 22.1 Mt vegetable oil. A high cropland use of 40-60% in Southeast Asia, South Asia and Central America, leaves little room for coconut monocropping and intercropping with fodder crops. Rain-fed coconut intercropping can offer farmers the opportunity to grow coconut alongside cash crops (coffee, cocoa) or staple foods (banana/plantain). In Southeast Asia, intercropping Tall or Hybrid coconut with either of these crops is suitable on up to 13% of cropland, with vegetable oil potentials of between 11.8 Mt (Dwarf coconut) and 14.5 Mt (Tall coconut).
The impact of climate change on coconut production varies and depends on the scenario, location and coconut production system. For the ‘Sustainability’ Scenario, which assumes that global mean temperatures can be kept below 2 degrees Celsius, the impact on coconut production is relatively small. As climate change intensifies, the potential for coconut production drastically decreases. This is particularly noticeable in South America, where in the ‘Fossil-fueled development’ scenario, only 36% of current potentials (6.7 Mt) can be produced from coconut monocropping on REMAIN land, caused primarily by a decline in the Amazonian rainfall. The negative effects of climate change are lower for coconut intercropping systems and when moderate land qualities are also considered. However, intensifying climate change decreases vegetable oils even in intercropping production systems.
This study has compiled a comprehensive database of spatially explicit vegetable oil production potentials that meet strict sustainability criteria. Together with local data, this can serve as a guide for strategies to transform and adapt the vegetable oil sector to meet the demands of the future bioeconomy
Evaluating trade-offs between species targets and average coverage in spatial conservation planning
Full text linkWith global conservation coverage rising toward 30 % and beyond, designing reserve networks that maximize biodiversity benefits while balancing competing objectives remains a pressing challenge. Spatial conservation prioritization methods are essential tools in this effort, yet different approaches can lead to markedly different outcomes. Among these, target-based minimum set coverage planning (MSC) and balanced priority ranking (BPR) represent two fundamentally distinct strategies: MSC focuses on meeting explicit conservation targets, while BPR seeks to achieve a cost-effective solution that maximizes coverage for all features. Despite their widespread use, little is known about how these methods compare in efficiency or differ when applied to the same datasets with varying target strategies. Here, we systematically compared conservation coverage achieved by the two methodologies with equal area allocation using five open datasets and four target-setting scenarios. We found that BPR resulted consistently in higher mean feature coverage per area protected compared to MSC across all datasets. BPR average coverage was nearly twice as high when considering all datasets together, although coverage was heterogeneous and showed no clear minimum threshold. In contrast, MSC guaranteed that specified target levels were met with certainty, but this came at the cost of reduced mean coverage. The magnitude of these differences highlights a major trade-off between targets and mean coverage, emphasizing the importance of disclosing conservation performance rather than solely reporting the proportions of features meeting targets or similar metrics. This can lead to more informed decision-making and improved performance assessments, with significant policy relevance for global conservation planning
Austrian nitrogen budget following UNECE guidance
Full text linkHuman activity over the past century has greatly disrupted the natural nitrogen (N) balance, harming health and the environment. Sustainable nitrogen management requires cross-sectoral governance, but studies tracking nitrogen flows across sectors are limited. This study assesses cross-sectoral sources, flows, and sinks of reactive nitrogen (Nr) in Austria, identifying direct N r inputs and emitting sectors. Using the ‘UNECE-Guidance Document on National Nitrogen Budgets’ and material flow analysis, we quantified Austria’s national nitrogen budget for 2015–2019. Results show the main nitrogen inflows and outflows from imports and exports in the consumer goods and chemical industries. Energy imports also contribute significantly. Some nitrogen is temporarily stored (e.g. in products) or transferred between sectors. However, not all of this N-loss is of direct environmental concern. Annually, 389 kt N r are lost directly to the environment and causing significant environmental and economic consequences. Direct N r inputs primarily originate from agriculture (39.3%) and energy/transport (20.7%), with around 30% from cross-border fluxes via water (13.9%) and air (16.6%). The remaining 10% stem from settlements, waste management, and industry. This study highlights the complexity of nitrogen sources and sinks in Austria and underscores the need for improvements towards reduced uncertainties in future research, including higher-resolution spatial data to account for regional variability
ACCREU Report: Impacts on ecosystems & biodiversity
Full text linkAs Europe advances its climate adaptation and biodiversity strategies, a new ACCREU report, led by IIASA with partners DTU and GCF, shows how climate change and changes in land use will reshape ecosystems and the services they provide. The study examines wetlands, forests, farmland, species habitats, and pollination under different scenarios, combining ecological modelling with economic valuation.
The findings highlight the enormous value of nature. Coastal wetlands currently provide flood and storm protection worth over USD 10 billion annually to European communities and infrastructure. However, these natural defenses face significant threats from rising sea levels and coastal development, with researchers noting that protecting and restoring wetlands proves more cost-effective than engineered alternatives.
Wildfires are projected to increase in a warmer, drier Europe, especially in southern countries. These fires reduce forest carbon, disrupt timber supply, and put many plants and animals at risk. While some species benefit from small, controlled burns, most wildlife populations decline under the frequent, high-intensity fires projected in future warming scenarios.
Sea-level rise poses an additional threat to agricultural productivity, with low-lying regions in Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands facing substantial risks. This creates challenging trade-offs between immediate food production needs and long-term ecological resilience.
Many European wildlife species face severe habitat loss by 2050, with pollinators among the most vulnerable groups. These insects, including bees and butterflies, currently provide agricultural pollination services valued at more than USD 5 billion annually, a figure that could decline by half by mid-century without habitat protection measures. This estimate is conservative, as it does not include important crops such as fruit trees, which would further increase the overall value.
The report makes clear that Europe is facing difficult trade-offs. While protecting nature may have economic consequences for agricultural productivity, ecosystem-based solutions such as wetland conservation and integrated land use and wildfire management may deliver substantial economic benefits alongside their ecological value. Overall, the study shows that climate change and land use change will have far-reaching impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems, and that the services they provide are at risk. The authors stress that ecosystem-based strategies are essential for Europe’s adaptation to climate change, delivering economic as well as ecological value
Agricultural land use change in fertile areas (basic agriculture) in Southwestern Iran: lessons learned from a qualitative study
No full textThe growing population has led to the conversion of productive agricultural lands into non-agricultural uses. These widespread changes in land use are reducing agricultural production and threatening food security. Therefore, it is essential to preserve agricultural lands; the first step of which is to gain a thorough understanding of the issue. Accordingly, this study aimed to investigate the causes of changing agricultural land use in the fertile areas of southwestern Iran. Utilizing a qualitative grounded theory approach, the statistical population was farmers in Bavi County selected through snowball sampling. Data were collected through in-depth interviews with 34 participants until theoretical saturation was reached. Data were analyzed using three coding stages, namely open, axial, and selective coding. The results of the open coding stage revealed 69 key concepts. During the axial coding stage, these concepts were classified into eight subcategories, including biophysical characteristics of the land, economic factors, legal factors, social factors, improvement and promotion of cultural and welfare issues, the weakness of the monitoring system, physical space development factors, and the change of weather conditions. Ultimately, in the selective coding stage, a paradigm model was developed to depict the causes of land use change in agriculture, including the main phenomenon, contextual conditions, causal conditions, intervening conditions, strategies, and consequences. These findings can smooth the way for a comprehensive understanding of the issue to address it. Accordingly, supporting farmers financially by providing low-cost or subsided inputs and services could make a huge contribution to preventing the conversion of agricultural land use
Model-based spatio-temporal cadmium health risk assessment by rice consumption and management at regional scale in China
No full textCadmium (Cd) accumulation in agricultural soils and its transfer to crops pose significant health risks to humans. To identify high-risk areas and guide regional management, this study conducted a spatio–temporal assessment of Cd fluxes and pollution risks in rice systems, based on a systematic 5-year survey (2014–2019) in a typical agricultural county in southern China. The model accurately simulated historical changes in soil total Cd content across 56 paddy sites, with an average annual increase of 3.4 μg kg⁻¹ . Atmospheric deposition contributed 63 % of total soil Cd inputs and crop harvesting accounted for 56 % of total outputs, with 25 % of the rice area currently exceeding the national food safety standard. If no mitigation measures are taken this area would increase to 74 % by 2070, with over 87 % of farmlands falling into Cd pollution risk zones. Rice from 52 % of the farmlands would pose non–carcinogenic health risks to the surrounding population. The risks are particularly high in the eastern and western regions, with children (56 %) being more affected than adults (48 %) due to greater Cd intake. To mitigate further Cd pollution, targeted Cd source control areas and improvement of soil properties are essential. The study demonstrates the potential of a site–specific dynamic Cd pollution model to assist decision makers in formulating policies to reduce Cd pollution at regional level
Electricity Use of Automation or How to Tax Robots?
No full textWhile automation technologies replace workers in ever more tasks, robots, 3D‐printers, and AI require substantial amounts of electricity. How are automation technologies affected by the price of electricity, and how do robot taxes and electricity taxes affect their adoption? To answer these questions, we generalize a standard economic growth model to incorporate automation and electricity use. In addition, we augment the model with electricity taxes and robot taxes and show the mechanisms by which these taxes affect automation. We find that an electricity tax—that is comparatively easy to implement—can serve a similar purpose as a robot tax
Examining Foreign Direct Investment effects on agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan African economies
No full textSpillover effects of Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) in developing countries have been theoretically linked to productivity enhancement through knowledge transfer. In Sub-Saharan Africa, where agricultural productivity remains persistently low, these potential spillovers could be critical for poverty alleviation and economic structural transformation. This study provides a novel empirical investigation of FDI inflows to agriculture in Sub-Saharan African countries, examining their impact on agricultural total factor productivity (TFP), as well as labor and land productivity. Leveraging a unique dataset compiled from official statistical sources, the research measures FDI in monetary terms—an approach that provides methodological advantages over traditional area-based investment measures. Employing a fixed effects framework and addressing potential endogeneity through a System Generalized Method of Moments (System GMM) approach, the analysis reveals complex findings. While the empirical results demonstrate statistically significant positive effects of FDI on total factor productivity, impacts on land and labor productivity remain insignificant. These findings suggest limited technology transfers and underscore the necessity for context-specific policy interventions, emphasizing that foreign investments are not universally beneficial and require careful, targeted evaluation