20253 research outputs found
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Outputs of the "Passenger demand mobility model" developed for South Asia
No full textThis dataset comprises outputs and intermediate calculations of the passenger mobility demand model developed for South Asian regions
MESSAGEix nightly testing snapshots
No full textThese files contain exported MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM scenarios used for testing of message_ix (doi: 10.5281/zenodo.4005684) and validation of changes to its code.
They were previously hosted on an IIASA-internal web server at https://data.ene.iiasa.ac.at and fetched from there by code in message_ix.testing.nightly. The current record allows the same data to be accessed through the message_ix_models.model.snapshot features (see the documentation) also used for public snapshots such as doi:10.5281/zenodo.5793869
Strategic land reallocation enhances carbon sequestration and biodiversity protection without compromising agricultural productivity in Great Britain
No full textDue to the negative environmental consequences of current land-use, and land’s important role regarding carbon, biodiversity and food security, there is an urgent interest in reforming land-use. Policy objectives for tree planting to sequester carbon and the protection of land to increase biodiversity require land reallocation, which leads to inevitable trade-offs. Here, we evaluate the trade-offs between three objectives for rural land: agricultural/forestry production, carbon sequestration and biodiversity, by calculating metrics for these three objectives on a 500 m grid covering Great Britain. We use a multi-objective optimisation that allows us to explore the full option space of possible land conversions and identify the land allocations that entail limited trade-offs. Our results show that current land-use in Great Britain is far from optimal for any combination of objectives. We identify the locations where carbon sequestration and biodiversity can be substantially improved without compromising overall agricultural production, provided conversions are located carefully
Cooling China without warming the planet: climate and co-benefits of HFC phase-down
No full textChina’s rapidly expanding cooling sector is a major driver of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and rising electricity demand, with profound implications for national decarbonization goals and global climate targets. Using a bottom-up, scenario-based model, we quantify direct refrigerant-related and indirect energy-related emissions across four subsectors: room air conditioning, mobile air conditioning, commercial air conditioning, and cold-chain refrigeration. Compared with a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario for 2022–2060, an accelerated transition to low-GWP refrigerants and enhanced energy efficiency (ATE) is projected to reduce cumulative HFC consumption by 12.6 ± 0.4 Gt CO 2 -eq, with 70% of these reductions achieved through compliance with the Kigali Amendment compliance and the remainder from faster adoption. The ATE pathway would also avoid 4.1 Gt CO 2 — ~ 28% of total avoided GHG emissions—along with substantial reductions in SO 2 (1.8 Gt), NO x (3.7 Gt), and PM 2.5 (0.3 Gt), lowering global mean temperature by up to 0.015°C by 2060. These results demonstrate the additional climate benefits achievable when efficiency improvements are implemented alongside Kigali-compliant refrigerant transitions
Individual and Firm Taxation in a CO₂ Emitting Economy
Full text linkTypical problems of negative effects of CO₂
emissions are that (i) they are suffered and generated not by the same agent and that (ii) individuals consider them as too small to influence the aggregated effect. Additionally, only little is known about how the behavior depends on the age-composition of a population and individual age-dependent life-cycle effects. We address these issues by an overlapping generations (OLG) structured population and a firm sector producing a homogeneous final consumption good. While firms generate CO₂
emission during the production process, individuals suffer from the aggregated effect. We analyze the difference between the decentralized market and the social welfare solution and study to which extent social optimality can be attained with different taxes on individual consumption and/or production. We find that firm taxation is always sufficient to reach the socially optimal level of CO₂
emissions. A social optimal distribution of consumption across cohorts, however, can only be attained by firm taxes in the steady state. In the general case, i.e., along a dynamic transitional path, additionally age-specific individual taxation is needed
FABLE Calculator for Argentina
No full textThe FABLE Calculator (FABLE-C) is an open tool created in 2018 by the FABLE Consortium (fableconsortium.org). Since its launch, it has been developed, regularly updated and improved through the release of update packages by the FABLE Secretariat in collaboration with members of the FABLE Consortium (see documentation on Github).
This version of the FABLE Calculator for Argentina builds on a version created by the FABLE Secretariat in 2018 including all update packages until 46 and pre-filled with data for Germany from available global databases. This version includes improvements made by the authors regarding diets and three pre-determined Pathways: Current Trends, National Commitments and Global Sustainability.
All the update packages which have been released by the FABLE Secretariat until update package 46 have been implemented by the authors. The authors are part of the FABLE team for Argentina
Uncertainties around net‐zero climate targets have major impact on greenhouse gas emissions projections
Full text linkGlobally, more than 100 countries have adopted net-zero targets. Most studies agree on how this increases the chance of keeping end-of-century global warming below 2°C. However, they typically make assumptions about net-zero targets that do not capture uncertainties related to gas coverage, sector coverage, sinks, and removals. This study aims to analyze the impact of many uncertainty factors on the projected greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 for major emitting countries following their net-zero pathways, and their aggregate impact on global GHG emissions. Global emission projections range from 23 to 40 gigatons of CO2 equivalent (GtCO2eq), with a median of 31 GtCO2eq. Our full range corresponds to about 40-75% of 2015 emission levels, which is much wider than the range of 30-45% reported by various integrated assessment models. The main factors contributing to this divergence are the uncertainty in the gas coverage of net-zero targets and uncertainty in the socioeconomic baseline. Countries with net-zero GHG targets by 2050 have a small range of 2050 emissions, while countries with net-zero targets beyond 2050 and unclear coverage, such as China, India, and Indonesia, have a large range of emissions by 2050
Leveraging the water-environment-health nexus to characterize sustainable water purification solutions
Full text linkChemicals of emerging concern (CECs) pose critical threats to both public health and the environment, emphasizing the urgent need for effective water treatment measures. Yet, the implementation of such intervention technologies often results in increased energy consumption and adverse environmental consequences. Here, we employ a comprehensive methodology that integrates multiple datasets, assumptions, and calculations to assess the human health and environmental implications of removing various CECs from source water. Our analysis of two treatment alternatives reveals that the integration of riverbank filtration with reverse osmosis offers a promising solution, yielding healthier and more environmentally favorable outcomes than conventional sequential technologies. By incorporating context-specific practices, such as utilizing renewable energy sources and clean energy technologies, we can mitigate the adverse impacts associated with energy-intensive water treatment services. This research advances our understanding of the water-health-environment nexus and proposes strategies to align drinking water provision with public health and environmental sustainability objectives
A year above 1.5 °C signals that Earth is most probably within the 20-year period that will reach the Paris Agreement limit
Full text linkThe temperature goals of the Paris Agreement are measured as 20-year averages exceeding a pre-industrial baseline. The calendar year of 2024 was announced as the first above 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels, but the implications for the corresponding temperature goal are unclear. Here we show that, without very stringent climate mitigation, the first year above 1.5 °C occurs within the first 20-year period with an average warming of 1.5 °C
Political enablers of ambitious climate policies: a framework and thematic review
Full text linkCurrently, most research explaining why countries lead or lag in climate policy assumes a problem-oriented perspective, focusing on barriers to climate policy adoption. Here, we argue that correcting for past failures, solving problems, and bringing climate policies back on track for the Paris Agreement requires a solution-oriented perspective on the political enablers of ambitious climate policies. We unite a growing research community that has previously been scattered across disciplinary subfields with various ontological and epistemological assumptions. Rooted in a thematic review of the scientific literature, we introduce a framework with a typology of six political enablers for ambitious climate policy at its core. For each enabler, we summarize key policy implications. We illustrate our framework with a case study on the adoption of emission trading systems in the transport and building sectors in Germany and the European Union (EU) allowing future solution-oriented research to build on our effort