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Impacts of hazard maps on individual reaction? Results from a case study in South Tyrol, Italy
No full textThis study investigates the impact of hazard maps on people's risk awareness, risk perception and willingness to engage in risk management activities in South Tyrol, Italy. By comparing empirical survey data from municipalities with and without approved hazard maps, the research aims to understand how these maps influence people's awareness and attitudes towards natural hazards. The results show that while hazard maps significantly improve risk perception and encourage proactive behaviour, their effect on knowledge about risk relevant tools and measures remains limited. There is a high level of uncertainty and misinformation regarding existing risk mitigation measures, particularly in communities without approved hazard maps. The results show that hazard maps have a significant impact on public risk perception. In communities with approved hazard maps, people perceive a greater need for additional protective measures and have a lower sense of security in case of a natural hazard event. The study also shows that hazard maps increase people's willingness to become more involved in risk management activities. The study emphasizes the importance of targeted risk communication strategies and suggests that hazard maps should be complemented by ongoing risk communication initiatives and participatory formats to achieve sustainable engagement and increase people's preparedness. Additionally, the research highlights the potential of hazard maps to raise awareness and encourage active participation but also identifies challenges and the need for comprehensive follow-up activities to ensure long-term impact
Impact of urban density on human well-being and sustainable development in Delhi, India
No full textAchieving sustainable urban development amid rapid urbanization requires a deep understanding of how urban density influences human well-being. This study examines the spatial relationship between built-up population density (BUD) and human well-being across Delhi, one of the world’s fastest-growing megacities. Using a combination of high-resolution census data, remote sensing, and spatial analysis, the study identifies markedly uneven urban form characterized by extreme density variation, ranging from 2,884 to 136,385 persons per km² across clusters, and uncoordinated development, particularly in peripheral zones. While BUD significantly affects well-being outcomes, the analysis reveals that beyond an optimal threshold, socio-economic conditions become equally influential. The findings emphasize the urgent need for differential planning strategies: promoting infrastructure and planned densification in low-density peripheries; encouraging mixed-use development in moderate-density zones; and alleviating congestion while enhancing services in high-density, unplanned areas. These insights provide a policy framework aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals, particularly Goal 11, which aims to make cities inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable. By emphasizing the spatial heterogeneity of urban density and its implications for well-being, this research provides a valuable lens for urban policy and planning in rapidly growing global cities
Future air quality and human health benefits of net-zero CO2 emissions pathway in China
No full textWhile growing attention has been paid to the co-benefits of climate policies, existing research often lacks granularity in evaluating diverse low-carbon transition strategies and their effects on air pollution and public health, particularly within the context of China's rapidly aging demographic. Here, we assess the PM2.5 air quality and health co-benefits of a net-zero CO2 emissions (NZE) pathway aligned with the 1.5 °C global climate target by integrating the Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies model with updated exposure-response relationships. Compared with China's initial nationally determined contribution scenario – peaking CO2 emissions around 2030, the NZE pathway reduces SO2, NOx and PM2.5 emissions by roughly 3900 kt, 4500 kt and 770 kt, respectively, by 2050. These reductions lower national population-weighted PM2.5 concentrations to 18.9 μg/m3, preventing approximately 260,000 premature deaths annually. Guangdong, Shandong, Henan, Sichuan, Jiangsu, and Hubei provinces account for 44 % of the avoided deaths, highlighting significant spatial disparities. Despite these improvements, PM2.5-related mortality reductions plateau after 2035, suggesting that climate policy alone may not fully offset health risks from population aging and residual pollution. Nationally, the marginal health benefits of CO2 abatement rise over time, reaching 77 avoided deaths per million tons of CO2 reduced by 2050, with particularly high values in Beijing and Hainan. The coefficient of variation for avoided PM2.5-related premature deaths per unit CO2 abatement rises from 1.12 in 2035 to 1.60 in 2050, indicating growing regional inequality. Our findings demonstrate that ambitious decarbonization delivers pronounced air quality and public health benefits while emphasizing the need for regionally tailored policies to ensure equitable outcomes
Ambitious food system interventions required to mitigate the risk of exceeding Earth’s environmental limits
No full textTransforming the global food system is essential to avoid exceeding Earth’s environmental limits. A robust evidence base is crucial to assess the scale and combination of interventions required for a sustainable transformation. We developed a risk assessment framework, underpinned by an evidence synthesis of global food system modeling studies, to quantify the potential of individual and combined interventions to mitigate the risk of exceeding global environmental limits for agricultural area, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, surface water flows, and nutrient cycles by 2050. GHG emissions and nutrient cycles are the most difficult limits to avoid exceeding and are conditional on shifts toward diets with a low proportion of animal-source foods; steep reductions in emissions intensity; substantial improvements in nutrient management, feed-conversion ratios, and crop yields; and efforts to limit overconsumption and food waste. Ambitious actions across the global food system are needed to ensure the required level of risk mitigation
Three Demographic Theories with Predictive Power: Demographic Metabolism, Demographic Transition, and Demographic Dividend
No full textThe discipline of demography has an ambivalent relationship to theory despite of the widely acknowledged view that every self-respecting scientific discipline needs to have a body of foundational theories. Based on Popper’s definition of a theory as containing predictive power and the definition of demography as studying changing population size and structures, this paper considers as demographic theories in the strict sense of these definitions theories that can predict population size and structures, i.e. focus on macro-level outcomes. The theory of demographic metabolism (a notion introduced by Norman Ryder) captures the essence of social change through cohort replacement in addition to transitions over the life cycle of cohorts and can deliver quantitative predictions in the context of multi-dimensional demographic modelling. The theory of demographic transition is the oldest and most prominent demographic theory, although its predictive power is limited to its irreversibility. Finally, the theory of a demographic dividend has probabilistic predictive power through the prediction that a relative increase of the more productive proportion of a population increases the chance of economic growth and improvements in wellbeing generally. In a final effort these three theories are combined towards a Unified Demographic Theory
Carbon footprint of the construction sector is projected to double by 2050 globally
No full textAchieving the Paris Agreement’s goals of holding global temperature rise well below 2 °C with efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C requires rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. The built environment embodies substantial emissions, posing a challenge to meeting these goals. We quantify the carbon cost of constructing the global built-environment over the past three decades and project it to 2050. Our findings indicate that the global construction carbon footprint has doubled over the past three decades and is projected to more than double by 2050. In 2022, over half of the construction industry’s carbon emissions stemmed from cementitious materials, bricks, and metals, while glass, plastics, chemicals, and bio-based materials contributed 6%, and the remaining 37% arose from transport, services, machinery, and on-site activities. Under the business-as-usual scenario, the construction carbon footprint alone will exceed the per-annum carbon budget for the 1.5 °C and 2 °C goals in the next two decades. It will use up all remaining carbon budget for the 1.5 °C goal by 2050, as our analysis highlights. Therefore, we advocate for a material revolution, such as replacing traditional materials with biobased materials, which leverages economies of scale and paves the way for a transformative and sustainable future in construction
Need for speed: Co-creating scenarios for climate neutral energy systems in Austria in 2040
No full textThe Austrian government has pledged to achieve climate neutrality by 2040, but so far, there is a lack of consistent net-zero scenarios. Therefore, we integrate a comprehensive stakeholder with a techno-economic modelling process, coupling an energy and a power system model, to co-create qualitative scenario narratives and quantitative model-based scenarios for Austria's energy system, assuming all non-energetic emissions are eliminated. All four scenarios reach climate neutrality by 2040, but differ in terms of energy demand and trade in energy carriers. In the scenario narratives, variations in the local acceptance of renewables and of sufficiency lifestyles explain these differences. All scenario narratives emphasize that commitment of all societal actors is required to reach climate neutrality by 2040. We find that the quantitative model-based scenarios consistently point at far-ranging electrification of transport and heat supply, the buildup of renewables, and a switch in steel producing technology until 2030. Long-term developments are more diverse and show either elevated imports of synthetic fuels or a more pronounced expansion of domestic renewables. Consistently across scenarios, significant fossil fuel infrastructure must be retired before end of life and the required speed of change in energy infrastructure is unprecedented in the history of the Austrian energy system
Implementing nature-based solutions: Insights from private contractors and consultants
No full textWith strong backing from global initiatives, Nature-based Solutions (NbS) are increasingly recognized for their potential to address multiple socio-environmental challenges. However, despite such recognition, on-the-ground implementation remains limited, as traditional ‘grey’ measures continue to dominate agendas. While extensive research has explored the broader barriers and enablers to NbS adoption, little attention has been given to the challenges and opportunities faced by private-sector professionals directly involved in their implementation process as contractors or consultants. A clear understanding of these challenges is crucial, as these actors play a central role in translating NbS concepts into tangible projects and shaping their effectiveness and sustainability. To address this gap, we interviewed 17 professionals across Europe who have contributed to NbS projects in contractor or consultant roles. Our findings reveal key challenges, including limited NbS-specific expertise and skills, difficulties in recruiting and retaining skilled staff, insufficient evidence of NbS effectiveness, and constrained funding that limits work opportunities. Other obstacles include the absence of regulations and clear standards, a persistent reliance on traditional ‘grey’ infrastructure, a siloed mindset among project owners, competition, administrative complexities, and concerns over risks and liability. Despite these challenges, our study revealed strategic opportunities in actions such as networking and collaboration, leveraging available data and technology, capitalizing on green market growth, forming multidisciplinary teams, and increasing training and awareness efforts. We recommend future research on the expertise and knowledge required for different NbS categories and professional roles, as it would help enhance capabilities and support more effective contributions to NbS implementation and scaling
The global hydrogen budget
No full textHydrogen (H2) will play a part in decarbonizing the global energy system1. However, hydrogen interacts with methane, ozone, and stratospheric water vapour, leading to an indirect 100-year global warming potential of 11 ± 4 (refs. 2,3,4,5). This raises concerns about the climate consequences of increasing H2 use under future hydrogen economies3,5. A comprehensive accounting of H2 sources and sinks is essential for assessing changes and mitigating environmental risks. Here we analyse trends in global H2 sources and sinks from 1990 to 2020 and construct a comprehensive budget for the decade 2010–2020. H2 sources increased from 1990 to 2020, primarily because of the oxidation of methane and anthropogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds, biogenic nitrogen fixation, and leakage from H2 production. Sinks also increased in response to rising atmospheric H2. Estimated global H2 sources and sinks averaged 69.9 ± 9.4 Tg yr−1 and 68.4 ± 18.1 Tg yr−1, respectively, for 2010–2020. Regionally, Africa and South America contained the largest sources and sinks of H2, whereas East Asia and North America contributed the most H2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. We estimate that rising atmospheric H2 between 2010 and 2020 contributed to an increase in global surface air temperature (GSAT) of 0.02 ± 0.006 °C. GSAT impacts of changing atmospheric H2 in future marker Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios are estimated to remain within 0.01–0.05 °C, depending on H2 usage, leakage rates and CH4 emissions that influence photochemical H2 production
Data Set — Dependence of Lowland Water Use on Mountain Runoff Globally: Interannual Variability and Future Changes at Seasonal Scale
No full textThis repository contains data and code used for the analysis of the manuscript "Dependence of Lowland Water Use on Mountain Runoff Globally: Interannual Variability and Future Changes at Seasonal Scale" by Sarah Hanus, Peter Burek, Mikhail Smilovic, Jan Seibert, Yoshihide Wada and Daniel Viviroli.
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