20253 research outputs found
Sort by
Republic of Korea: Predicting Shifts in Forest Biodiversity
Full text linkThis chapter addresses the critical issue of diminishing biodiversity resulting from climate change and habitat loss in Korea and is largely based on a study by Choi et al. (Journal of Environmental Management 288, 2021). International endeavors to safeguard biodiversity face the challenge of accurately quantifying and predicting its shifts. Focusing on the Republic of Korea (ROK), a region renowned for its rapid reforestation, the study seeks to evaluate the enduring biodiversity of plant species from the 1960s to the 2050s, with a specific emphasis on the consequences of reforestation efforts. Employing a fusion of global-scale methodologies and localized data, the study simulates transformations in climate change, land use, and habitat condition, culminating in an analysis of their collective influence on biodiversity. The specific methodology details can be found in Choi et al. (Journal of Environmental Management 288, 2021), with key findings presented in this chapter. It is simulated that biodiversity is deteriorating due to habitat fragmentation and reduced connectivity caused by urbanization, alongside the impacts of climate change. However, a key conclusion drawn is that consistent efforts in forest conservation can mitigate these adverse effects. This research augments our understanding of biodiversity preservation amid the intricate interplay of complex factors, exemplified by the case of the ROK
Thresholds of significant harm at global level: The journey of the Earth Commission
Full text linkThe planetary boundary framework proposes ‘safe’ boundaries, but these boundaries are not necessarily ‘just’. Hence, we ask: How has the Earth Commission defined just boundaries building on the concept of minimizing significant harm and how many people are currently exposed to harm above the safe and just threshold? We document the work of the Earth Commission to address these questions using our Earth System Justice framework. We conclude that: (a) from a justice perspective, nine criteria need to be considered when defining just boundaries; (b) the proportions of populations exposed to harm from exceeding safe and just boundaries today range from 11 to 84 % for the five domains studied (climate, biosphere, water, nutrients, aerosols); and (c) argue that the absolute upper limit for significant harm is possibly harm to 1 % of the population, which although not stringent enough to leave no one behind, would require radical transformations, given the populations currently already above the threshold
Integrated carbon and nitrogen management for cost-effective environmental policies in China
No full textAnthropogenic activities have greatly perturbed both the carbon and nitrogen cycles, with clear ecological consequences. Successfully management to minimize these impacts is vital to preserving the sustainability of environmental networks and human society. Focusing on China, Xu et al . developed an integrated model for quantifying carbon and nitrogen fluxes and their interactions. By managing them together in an integrated manner, large reductions of carbon and nitrogen could be achieved at lower abatement costs and greater societal benefits than if they were treated separately. —Jesse Smit
Mycorrhizal symbioses and tree diversity in global forest communities
Full text linkUnraveling the mechanisms underlying the maintenance of species diversity is a central pursuit in ecology. It has been hypothesized that ectomycorrhizal (EcM) in contrast to arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi can reduce tree species diversity in local communities, which remains to be tested at the global scale. To address this gap, we analyzed global forest inventory data and revealed that the relationship between tree species richness and EcM tree proportion varied along environmental gradients. Specifically, the relationship is more negative at low latitudes and in moist conditions but is unimodal at high latitudes and in arid conditions. The negative association of EcM tree proportion on species diversity at low latitudes and in humid conditions is likely due to more negative plant-soil microbial interactions in these regions. These findings extend our knowledge on the mechanisms shaping global patterns in plant species diversity from a belowground view. Mycorrhizal symbioses are associated to tree diversity differently across latitudes and environments.Unraveling the mechanisms underlying the maintenance of species diversity is a central pursuit in ecology. It has been hypothesized that ectomycorrhizal (EcM) in contrast to arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi can reduce tree species diversity in local communities, which remains to be tested at the global scale. To address this gap, we analyzed global forest inventory data and revealed that the relationship between tree species richness and EcM tree proportion varied along environmental gradients. Specifically, the relationship is more negative at low latitudes and in moist conditions but is unimodal at high latitudes and in arid conditions. The negative association of EcM tree proportion on species diversity at low latitudes and in humid conditions is likely due to more negative plant-soil microbial interactions in these regions. These findings extend our knowledge on the mechanisms shaping global patterns in plant species diversity from a belowground view. Mycorrhizal symbioses are associated to tree diversity differently across latitudes and environments
Justice for Resilient Development in Climate-Stressed Cities
Full text linkClimate impacts and risk, within and across cities, are distributed highly unequally. Cities located in low latitudes are more vulnerable to climate risk and impacts than in high latitudes, due to the large proportion of informal settlements relative to the housing stock and more frequent extremes. According to EM-DAT, about 60% of environmental disasters in cities relate to riverine floods. Riverine floods and heatwaves cause about 33% of deaths in cities. However, cold-waves and droughts impact most people in cities (42% and 39% of all people, respectively). Human vulnerability intersects with hazardous, underserved communities. Frequently affected groups include women, single parents, and low-income elderly. Responses to climatic events are conditioned by the informality of social fabric and institutions, and by inequitable distribution of impacts, decision-making, and outcomes. To ensure climate-resilient development, adaptation and mitigation actions must include the broader urban context of informality and equity and justice principles. This title is also available as open access on Cambridge Core
Wastewater matters: incorporating wastewater treatment and reuse into a process-based hydrological model (CWatM v1.08)
Full text linkWastewater treatment and reuse are becoming increasingly critical for enhancing water use efficiency and ensuring reliable water availability. Wastewater also significantly influences hydrological dynamics within urban watersheds. Although hydrological modeling has advanced to incorporate human–water interactions, large-scale and multi-resolution models often lack the comprehensive integration of wastewater treatment and reuse processes. This paper presents the new wastewater treatment and reuse module as part of the hydrological Community Water Model (CWatM) and demonstrates its capabilities and advantages in an urban watershed with intermittent flows. Incorporating wastewater into the model improves model performance by better representing low and peak flows during the respective dry and wet seasons. It allows for the representation of sectoral wastewater reuse, the exploration of different measures to increase wastewater reuse, and the examination of the effects of wastewater reuse on the water stress level. Modeling wastewater treatment and reuse is particularly relevant in regions with semi-arid or arid climates, rapid urbanization, or active policies promoting water reuse. The wastewater treatment and reuse module could be upscaled by minimizing the data requirements via simplified workflows. Combined with the availability of recent datasets on wastewater treatment plants and processes, a global application of the module is feasible. As current developments focus on water quantity, the water quality dimension of wastewater treatment remains a limitation. This opens prospects for incorporating water quality into the model and developing global input data for wastewater treatment and reuse
Increasing global wood demand will risk forest sustainability
Full text linkThe European Union aims to be climate neutral by 2050, driving ambitious mitigation efforts. Our study investigates how climate and bioeconomy policies impact biodiversity in Sweden. Using GLOBIOM Model, we project the wood demand under three policy scenarios: Current policy, Bioenergy and Bioeconomy. Focal biodiversity indicators are mean deadwood volume, area of old forest, area of old forest rich in broadleaves and mean age of standing trees. Forest dynamics are simulated using Heureka-Planwise. We identify management strategies balancing economic objectives with biodiversity, employing both intensive and extensive approaches. Mean deadwood volume increased substantially in set-asides in all policy scenarios, while in production landscape, nearly tripling under Current Policy scenario and doubled under Bioenergy and Bioeconomy scenarios. The area of old forest on production land declined drastically, reaching 0.1 million ha in Bioeconomy scenario by 2100. Optimization favored intensive management strategies, particularly Bioenergy extraction in Bioenergy and Bioeconomy scenarios. Under Current policy, both intensive and extensive management strategies were equally dominant. Management strategies like Continuous cover forestry and Unmanaged were the least implemented. Wood demand consistently increased across scenarios, stabilizing under the Current policy scenario after 2040. In the Bioeconomy scenario the demand continued to increase, surpassing supply potential by 2070
Health in a changing climate: Perceptions of 'broken relationships' during COVID-19 in Austria
Full text linkThis article contributes to understanding health in a changing climate by analysing public perceptions of the root causes of the COVID-19 pandemic in Austria. Drawing on 209 in-depth qualitative interviews conducted between April 2020 and October 2021 in a country that was facing significant challenges regarding national climate targets at that time, the study explores how people linked health, nature, and politics during the pandemic. While many initially expressed hope that the COVID-19 Anthropause would catalyse sustainable change, this optimism soon faded. Over the following year and a half, participants increasingly identified the broken relationships between humans, nature, and things as the root cause of overlapping health, environmental, and climate crises. This culminated in a widespread awareness that personal health is inextricably connected to the wellbeing of the natural environment—and that systemic change, though considered unlikely at the time, is necessary to address these intersecting crises. Our findings show strong resonances between Austrian residents’ multidimensional understanding of health in times of climate change and insights from decolonial scholarship, Indigenous people’s knowledges, as well as global majority perspectives. In dialogue with environmental health, Planetary Health, and Indigenous scholarship, we draw out how participants conceived health as a condition shaped by various ‘natural’, biological, ecological, social, political, economic and other dimensions that interact over time and space. Highlighting this perspective from a global minority context raises more far-reaching questions about the need for decolonial repair to address climate-related health impacts
Sustainable agricultural sector: A key component of EU economic prosperity and security – An economic modellers’ perspective.
Full text linkThe EU is facing a convergence of strategic challenges — geopolitical uncertainty, climate crisis, economic stagnation, and social inequality. The 2024–2029 Strategic Agenda underscores the urgency to ensure Europe remains free, democratic, secure, competitive, and prosperous. Agriculture, as a cornerstone of the EU’s economy, food system, and environmental landscape, is central to this transformation.
Business as usual is no longer an option. Despite its strengths, the agri-food sector is showing signs of vulnerability: stagnating yields, slow innovation uptake, critical import dependencies (e.g., fertilisers), environmental degradation, and a growing gap between large and small farms. At the same time, this sector holds untapped potential to support the green transition, economic growth, and food security.
The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), representing nearly one-third of the EU budget, is the primary instrument for shaping this transformation. Ensuring its effectiveness in the post-2027 era requires renewed vision, evidence-based guidance, and systems thinking across economic, environmental, and social domains.
This joint paper synthesises the insights of leading agri-economic modelling teams to guide future CAP development. It identifies five Priority Action Areas (PAAs) — income & resilience, nutrient autonomy, trade, innovation in the bioeconomy, and digitalisation — and proposes future directions for modelling tools to better assess complex policy trade-offs.
Drawing on decades of experience in model-based policy analysis, the paper not only offers strategic advice to policymakers but also outlines a forward-looking modelling agenda. This includes greater integration of environmental and economic data, better representation of innovation and consumer shifts, and enhanced systems-level understanding of the agri-food bioeconomy.
The paper serves as a contribution to current and upcoming discussions on CAP post-2027, European food system transformation, and strategic autonomy. It is intended as a tool for dialogue with policymakers, researchers, and stakeholders aiming to co-create a sustainable and prosperous agricultural future for Europe
Natural variability-focused assessment of climate overshoot timing
Full text linkThe Paris Agreement legally commits the international community to keep anthropogenic global warming well below 2.0 °C, while efforts shall be made to hold the 1.5 °C-line. Under climate business as usual, however, the transgression of those lines will happen in the next few decades, causing major adaptation challenges. Fully-fledged Earth System Models are usually employed for concrete overshoot-timing projections, yet they are not only computationally expensive, but their internal variability is model dependent, which may significantly distort (and invalidate) their projections. Here we present, as an alternative, a purely data-driven approach based on the persistence properties of the observed global temperatures. We quantify, in a probabilistic way, the natural variability that must be superimposed on the anthropogenic trends in order to retrieve the observed warming behavior. When assuming that the anthropogenic warming continues at the current rate, we actually arrive at comparable overshoot timing estimates as the Earth System Models and provide an explanation for this finding. Since the two approaches are independent, they support each other strongly and highlight the need for an effective overshoot management