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Global and regional long-term climate forecasts: a heterogeneous future
Full text linkClimate is a long-term issue, and as such, climate forecasts should be designed with a long-term perspective. These forecasts are critical for crafting mitigation policies aimed at achieving one of the primary objectives of the Paris Climate Agreement (PCA) and for designing adaptation strategies to alleviate the adverse effects of climate change. Furthermore, they serve as indispensable tools for assessing climate risks and guiding the green transition effectively. This paper introduces a straightforward method for generating long-term temperature density forecasts using observational data, leveraging the realized quantile methodology developed by Gadea and Gonzalo (JoE, 2020). This methodology transforms unconditional quantiles into time series objects. The resulting forecasts complement those produced by physical climate models, which primarily focus on average temperature values. By contrast, our density forecasts capture broader distributional characteristics, including spatial disparities that are often obscured in mean-based projections. The proposed approach involves conducting an outof-sample forecast model competition and integrating the forecasts from the resulting Pareto-superior models. This method reduces dependency on any single forecast model, enhancing the robustness of the results. Additionally, recognizing climate change as a non-uniform phenomenon, our approach emphasizes the importance of analyzing climate data from a regional perspective, providing differentiated predictions to address the complexities of a heterogeneous future. This regional focus underscores the necessity of accounting for spatial disparities to better assess risks and develop effective policies for mitigation, adaptation, and compensation.
Finally, this paper advocates that future climate agreements and policymakers should prioritize analyzing the entire temperature distribution rather than focusing solely on average values.We are grateful for Financial support from the grants PID2019-104960GB-100, PID2023-147593NB-I00, PID2020-114646RB-C44, PID2023-150095NBC44, RED2018-102563-T, RED2022-134122-T, CEX2021-001181-M and TED2021-129784B-I00 funded by MCIN/AEI/ 10.13039/501100011033
The effect of copays on the economic and ethnic segregation of primary education students: An evaluation of Chile's 2015 School Inclusion Act
Full text linkChile's 2015 School Inclusion Act promotes the phasing out of copays in so-called privatevoucher schools (largely equivalent to charter schools elsewhere). Our main research question is, What is the impact of reducing copays on (1) socioeconomic segregation, an intended target of the reform, and (2) ethnic segregation, a separate and much smaller dimension of school segregation that nonetheless might also be a ected by the reform asminorities tend to be poorer? We analyze the entire student body in primary education between 2016 and 2018 with an strategy based on three instrumental variables: (1) variationin monthly municipality unemployment and activity rates; (2) student-to-teacher ratios in public schools; and, (3) a crime index. We conclude that dropping copays would eliminate more than two thirds of socioeconomic segregation and almost half of ethnic segregation. In the article we also compare our favored administrative-led defnition of three socioeconomic statuses (low, mid and high) with alternatives based on mother's educational level or household income that rely on a sizeable sample of around 80 percent of the student body. We conclude that these sample-based alternatives lead to biased (1) segregation measurements and (2) estimates of the effect on copays on segregation.Daniel Guinea-Martín and Ricardo Mora acknowledge fi nancial support from MICIU/ AEI/10.13039/501100011033 project number PID2023-146391NB-I00. Ricardo Mora also acknowledges fi nancial supoort by MICIU/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 grant CEX2021-001181-M and Comunidad de Madrid, grant EPUC3M11 (V PRICIT)
Integración de competencias digitales en modelado y animación 3D en Comunicación Audiovisual a través de la herramienta SPOC (Small Private Online Course)
No full textLa realidad profesional en Comunicación Audiovisual evoluciona constantemente, lo que exige que los estudiantes adquieran nuevas competencias digitales durante su formación técnica y experimental. En este contexto, el modelado y la animación 3D destacan actualmente como áreas con amplias oportunidades laborales en el sector audiovisual. Este estudio analiza la integración de estos contenidos curriculares en el plan de estudios del Grado mediante dos metodologías de innovación educativa: la clase invertida (flipped-classroom) y la creación de un Small Private Online Course (SPOC), que complementa la enseñanza presencial de la asignatura de Postproducción Digital. Esta plataforma proporciona el acceso completo a los contenidos de modelado y animación 3D. Los primeros resultados resaltan la eficacia de la aplicación conjunta de ambas estrategias, tanto en la enseñanza de estos nuevos contenidos a los estudiantes de la asignatura, como en la formación y recualificación del profesorado encargado de impartirlos
Formación para eco manager en el sector audiovisual: la nueva figura profesional responsable de la sostenibilidad de una producción
No full textAunque se trate de un comportamiento incipiente y practicado por una minoría sobre el conjunto de la industria (Asenjo McCabe y Herrero Bernal, 2024), la filosofía sostenible y la responsabilidad para con el propio impacto en el entorno han aumentado y el eco manager -profesional encargado de lograr que la huella de carbono de la producción sea mínima y de velar por el cumplimiento de los planes de sostenibilidad- va ganando mayor presencia y penetración en los rodajes. Este estudio pretende determinar cuál es la formación óptima y cuál la actualmente ofertada para capacitar a la nueva figura profesional en el sector audiovisual denominada eco manager mediante una metodología cuanti-cualitativa, basada en encuesta y entrevistas en profundidad a profesionales en sostenibilidad de la industria.Las conclusiones revelan que la implementación de la sostenibilidad en el sector audiovisual debe ir de la mano de la formación y que se impone la necesidad de crear estudios reglados para la figura de eco manager, que sistematicen los conocimientos necesarios y brinden capacitación a quienes quieran abocarse a esta tarea
Preparation Time and Exam Performance: Heterogeneous Effects by Student Background Characteristics
No full textImproving student performance while reducing inequality is a key challenge in higher education. This study examines how variation in preparation time affects performance across different groups. Using
administrative data on 591 end-of-year exams from a large public university in Madrid, we exploit quasi-random variation in exam intervals arising from predetermined exam schedules and students’
enrolment patterns. We focus on three dimensions of equity: gender, prior academic ability (GPA), and socioeconomic status (SES). Results indicate that more exam preparation time does positively affect
exam performance overall. However, more preparation time impacts equity in varying ways. The disparity between female and male students narrows as females benefit more from longer exam intervals
compared to males. Contrariwise, the discrepancy in performance between high versus low GPA students increases, indicating that more preparation time results in greater inequity by student ability.
Finally, exam preparation time has no clear effect on differences between socioeconomic groups – overall trends are weak, and the impact of exam spacing on equity varies depending on the SES measure and model specification.This paper is part of the project I+D+iPID2020-117525RB-I00, financed by MICIU/AEI/10.13039/501100011033
La regulación de las deepfakes (ultrasuplantaciones) en el reglamento de la UE sobre Inteligencia Artificial
No full text[ES] Este artículo analiza de manera crítica la regulación de las deepfakes (ultrasuplantaciones) tal y como figura en el art. 50 del Reglamento sobre Inteligencia Artificial. El artículo comienza realizando una serie de consideraciones generales sobre el impacto de las deepfakes en la democracia, examina cómo repercuten, de manera concreta, las deepfakes en el debate público, para luego pasar a examinar el art. 50 del Reglamento sobre Inteligencia Artificial en su conjunto. El resultado del análisis arroja una conclusión clara: las deepfakes están reguladas de manera muy defectuosa en el Reglamento sobre IA. El artículo analiza las implicaciones prácticas que se derivan de esta defectuosa regulación, para concluir, finalmente, con una serie de consideraciones de lege ferenda, la más importante de las cuales es la idea o concepto del estándar contrafactual.[EN] This article critically examines the regulation of deepfakes under Article 50 of the Regulation on Artificial Intelligence. The paper begins with a general reflection on the impact of deepfakes on democracy, explores how deepfakes specifically affect public debate, and then proceeds to analyze Article 50 of the Regulation on Artificial Intelligence in a comprehensive way. The outcome of the analysis leads to a clear conclusion: deepfakes are poorly regulated in the AI Regulation. The article discusses the practical implications of this flawed regulation and concludes with a series of de lege ferenda considerations, the most significant of which is the concept of the counterfactual standard
Reforma de la evaluación económica de medicamentos en España: propuestas del Comité Asesor para la Financiación de la Prestación Farmacéutica
No full text[EN] This paper describes the reforms recommended by the Advisory Committee on the Financing of Pharmaceuticals (CAPF) for the National Health System (NHS) of Spain from 2019 to 2024 for the drug pricing and reimbursement process, to integrate economic evaluations and improve efficiency and sustainability. The CAPF has proposed a three-phase reform of the economic evaluation (EE) and budget impact analysis (BIA) processes. The first phase involves the mandatory submission of EE and BIA by applicants for new drugs. The second phase involves the assessment of these submissions, coordinated by the Directorate-General for Pharmaceuticals. The third phase focuses on the application of these assessments to decision-making on drug positioning, pricing and financing. The CAPF's recommendations emphasise improved regulation, transparency and the development of methodological guidelines for economic evaluations. These proposals include a dynamic appraisal system and the creation of official NHS guidance on EE and BIA. The process is designed to ensure compliance with established criteria and to incorporate efficiency into decision-making. The initiatives of the CAPF aim to make progress towards the integration of efficiency in Spanish pharmaceutical policy seeking to improve the methodological quality and transparency of economic evaluations, ultimately contributing to more informed decision-making and sustainable healthcare practices.[ES] Este artículo describe las reformas recomendadas por el Comité Asesor para la Financiación de la Prestación Farmacéutica (CAPF) del Sistema Nacional de Salud (SNS) de España entre 2019 y 2024 en el proceso de fijación de precios y reembolso de medicamentos, con el fin de integrar evaluaciones económicas y mejorar la eficiencia y la sostenibilidad. El CAPF ha propuesto una reforma en tres fases de los procesos de evaluación económica (EE) y análisis de impacto presupuestario (AIP). La primera fase implica la presentación obligatoria de EE y AIP por parte de los solicitantes de nuevos medicamentos. La segunda fase implica la evaluación de estas presentaciones, coordinada por la Dirección General de Farmacia. La tercera fase se centra en la aplicación de estas evaluaciones en la toma de decisiones sobre el posicionamiento, la fijación de precios y la financiación de los medicamentos. Las recomendaciones del CAPF destacan la mejora de la regulación, la transparencia y el desarrollo de directrices metodológicas para las EE. Estas propuestas incluyen un sistema de evaluación dinámico y la creación de una guía oficial del SNS sobre EE y AIP. El proceso está diseñado ˜ para garantizar el cumplimiento de los criterios establecidos e incorporar la eficiencia en la toma de decisiones. Las propuestas del CAPF tienen como objetivo avanzar hacia la integración de la eficiencia en la política farmacéutica española y buscan mejorar la calidad metodológica y la transparencia de las EE, contribuyendo en última instancia a una toma de decisiones más informada y a prácticas de atención sanitaria sostenibles
Analysis of periodic temporal changes in the spectral signature of IR sources by modeling of spectral artifacts in FTIR systems
No full textPeriodic fluctuations in the incoming spectrum to a Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometer often result in spectral artifacts that can compromise quantitative measurements. This study presents a novel method that relaxes the conventional assumption of uniform fluctuations across all frequencies, by modeling the radiance fluctuations with a Fourier series expansion with wavenumber-dependent coefficients. By limiting the incoming spectral bandwidth with an interference filter, it is possible to retrieve the artifact-free average spectrum and to obtain the temporal evolution of the incident radiance. Experimental validation was conducted with transmittance measurements on a methane gas sample whose column density was periodically modulated. This method expands FTIR capabilities, particularly for applications involving fluctuating gases, and enhances the potential for time-resolved analysis in complex environments.The authors acknowledge the financial support provided by the Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades of the Gobierno de España, through the Agencia Estatal de Investigación (AEI), under grant number CPP2021-009005. Additionally, the authors are grateful for the financial support received from the Universidad Carlos III de Madrid (UC3M) for the funding of APCs (Agreement CRUE-Madroño 2024). The authors express their gratitude to the Comunidad de Madrid for its support through the agreement with UC3M under the Excellence of University Professors Program (EPUC3M14)
The Circulation of European Films in Latin America: Focus on Major Markets and Box
Full text linkDespite strong cultural, linguistic, and historical ties between Latin America and Europe, the circulation of European films in Latin America is limited and its economic impact unknown. To address this, several key actions should be considered. Firstly, existing support programs for European film distribution and promotion in Latin America should be reviewed and simplified to enhance their accessibility to distributors. Reviving initiatives like Europa Cinema Mundus, which fostered theatrical programming and cross-border exchange, could significantly boost this effort. Secondly, co-production agreements between countries should be revised to align with current industry practices. Furthermore, establishing a central database containing information on coproduction agreements and support programs would significantly improve access to resources and facilitate cross-country exchange. Finally, fostering stronger cooperation with publicly managed exhibition windows would enhance the presence and prominence of European films in the region. In short, these measures aim to improve the circulation and, in turn, the potential economic viability of European films in Latin America by simplifying support programs, modernizing coproduction agreements, enhancing information access, and supporting stronger partnerships in film exhibitions with public institutions
ECOTIRE: A New Concept of a Smart and Sustainable Tire Based on a Removable Tread
Full text linkThis paper introduces a new concept of a smart and sustainable tire based on a removable tread band: ECOTIRE. Current tires, though crucial for road information and vehicle control, such as braking, traction, and turning, remain disconnected from Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS). Additionally, their production, use, and recycling pose significant environmental challenges, requiring sustainable materials and lifecycle improvements. The ECOTIRE concept makes it possible to separate the part of the tire subject to wear and apply new materials with reduced environmental impact. At the same time, the service life of the casing is extended, facilitating the introduction of sensors that improve vehicle safety. This study explores the purely mechanical connection between the casing and tread, demonstrating the feasibility of this innovative tire structure while eliminating the need for rubber matrix-based materials for a proper bond between the two components. Experimental tests using a rubber sample to simulate the tire–road contact patch validate the effectiveness of the mechanical link under varying normal loads. Grip test results, measuring longitudinal and lateral forces, show promising performance. This advancement in tire technology marks a first step toward sustainability, tire performance, and smart integration, ultimately reducing environmental impact.The authors acknowledge the financial support for this publication as part of the R+D+i project TED2021-129604B-100, funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and by the European Union NextGeneration EU PRTR