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Only children by choice vs. only children by circumstances: why do some women have only one child?
No full textIn an attempt to stimulate further theory and research on only children, we introduce two conceptual distinctions: Only children as independent variables vs. only children as dependent variables; and only children by choice vs. only children by circumstances. What little scientific research exists on only children to date focuses almost exclusively on only children as independent variables and fails to make a distinction between only children by choice and only children by circumstances. A focus on only children by choice as dependent variables explores the question of why some women choose to have only one child. As an empirical illustration, analyses of prospectively longitudinal data with a nationally representative sample in the United Kingdom (National Child Development Study) show that women who experience pregnancy complications are significantly less likely to have another child and significantly more likely to have only one child. Our results suggest that increased chances of pregnancy complications that American women now experience alone can explain about 10% of the increase in the number of only children in the United States in the last half century. If certain genes incline women to have pregnancy complications, it is possible that only children by circumstances are genetically more similar to children with siblings than to only children by choice
Optimized random-combinations of total fertility rates and life expectancies at birth for probabilistic population projections
No full textMany studies indicate that Total fertility rates (TFR(t)) are negatively correlated with life expectancies at birth (e0(t)). We found that complete random-combinations of TFR(t) and e0(t) would result in about 24% and 22.2% of improbable combinations in probabilistic population projections (PPPs) for developing and developed countries, respectively, namely, high (or low) TFR(t) combined with high (or low) female e0(t). Thus, we propose optimized random-combinations of probabilistically projected TFR(t) and e0(t) for PPPs, and we use different strategies of the optimized randomcombinations across developing and developed countries due to different empirical patterns observed. As illustrative applications, we conducted PPPs for 11 developing countries (Brazil, China, Indonesia, Madagascar, Pakistan, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Viet Nam), and 6 developed countries (Canada, France, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States), using our proposed optimized random-combinations of probabilistically projected TFR(t) and e0(t). We found that optimized random-combinations largely reduce percentages of improbable combinations of TFR(t) and e0(t) and substantially narrow the prediction intervals width compared to complete random-combinations in both developing countries and developed countries. This is important in a real-world practical sense since it would substantially improve the accuracy of PPPs, which are useful for socioeconomic planning. The present study is part of our ongoing research program on probabilistic households and living arrangement projections (PHPs) that builds upon and is consistent with the UNPD PPPs. The PHPs are useful for various studies of healthy aging and sustainable development
The challenge of managing and retaining risks: how a paradox perspective reduces harm, realizes opportunities and enriches performance
No full textManagers in many kinds of organizations encounter risks in their daily work. A key challenge involves finding ways to manage risks and prevent harm to individuals or organizations, while retaining risks to realize opportunities. These pressures create a tension between risk management and risk retention that prevails in many sectors and is especially consequential in organizations where failures to address it may be fatal. I use inductive analysis to explore qualitative data from 72 television production company managers whose work has potential for trauma, injury and death as well as success. I find the tension between risk management and risk retention can be understood in relation to perceptions and goals. I contribute to theorizing about organizational paradox by showing how perceptions of the tension differ at the individual level. Some managers perceive the tension as a trade‐off, focus on risk management and emphasize safety goals. Other managers perceive the tension as a paradox and emphasize wider performance goals that encompass safety and risk. These managers use their agency to foster empowerment and creativity. Doing so enhances to both risk management and risk retention, creating a dynamic equilibrium that reduces harm, realizes opportunities and enriches performance
When do liberal governments restrict civil society?
No full textLiberal democracies increasingly restrict civil society organizations (CSOs), a trend frequently linked to illiberal governments. But when do ideologically liberal governments resort to such restrictions? Linking research on state traditions, party ideology and crisis governance, we theorize factors enhancing liberal governments' propensity to adopt normatively contentious CSO restrictions. Distinguishing formal‐legal restrictions on CSO voice from those on CSO existence, we show that nearly 90 such restrictions were adopted by 17 cabinets in France and the United Kingdom over the last 2 decades. In line with theoretical expectations, restrictions on CSO existence are more prominent in statist France, while governments in the United Kingdom tend to restrict CSO voice. More right‐wing governments adopt more CSO restrictions, while restrictions go up with government crisis pressure. Overall, understanding how liberal governments use CSO restrictions requires considering contextual opportunity structures and ideological dispositions in conjunction
Using cross-survey imputation to estimate poverty for Venezuelan refugees in Colombia
No full textHousehold consumption or income surveys do not typically cover refugee populations. In the rare cases where refugees are included, inconsistencies between different data sources could interfere with comparable poverty estimates. We test the performance of a recently developed cross-survey imputation method to estimate poverty for a sample of refugees in Colombia, combining household income surveys collected by the Government of Colombia and administrative (ProGres) data collected by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees in 2019 and 2022. We find that certain variable transformation methods can help resolve these inconsistencies. Estimation results with our preferred variable standardization method are robust to different imputation methods, including the normal linear regression method, the empirical distribution of the errors method, and the probit and logit methods. Several common machine learning techniques generally perform worse than our proposed imputation methods. We also find that we can reasonably impute poverty rates using an older household income survey and a more recent ProGres dataset for most of the poverty lines. These results provide relevant inputs into designing better surveys and administrative datasets on refugees in various country settings
The evolution of ICT4D: content, context, and process
No full textIn this chapter, we interview Shirin Madon, Professor of Information Communication Technologies and Socioeconomic Development at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE). With her long-term position as a key figure in ICT4D research, Shirin engages us in a conversation that details the journey of ICT4D as a research field, starting from the distinctive features of the early days and observing, through the conversation, how these have been increasingly discussed and problematised. The conversation traverses the ways in which the development discourse has evolved over the years, the routes through which it has been translated into practice, and the role of international funding institutions in shaping the course of the ICT4D field. We conclude with a focus on the future, looking at how, among other aspects, non-ICT interventions have become active participants in the landscape of digital development, inspiring new paths of engagement for ICT4D researchers
Is competition policy fit for the digital economy? A European perspective
No full textCompetition policy establishes the institutional framework for competitive dynamics in market economies. Recently, the relevance and impact of traditional competition policy has been challenged by the rise of the digital economy, where we see a small number of large platform firms, frequent takeovers and mergers, and the potential for using customer data to join and dominate previously separate markets. We provide a framework to explain the basis for contemporary competition policy, and explore implications for company strategy within and beyond the digital sector. Some of the most radical thinking about how competition policy might address the challenge of the digital economy originates from Europe, itself a major market for technology firms. We illustrate this thinking with exemplars from the practice of the EU Commission. Although existing competition policy can provide a basis for addressing monopolistic abuses in digital markets, practices are shifting to address novel sources of market power, including the governance architecture of digital platform firms and their ecosystems, the transferability of personal data, and the interoperability of systems and standards. We consider implications for policymakers. Corporate strategists must also understand how the evolving competition policy framework is impacting competitive dynamics of both platform operator and platform complementing entrepreneurs
Digital technology and regional income inequality: are better institutions the solution?
No full textIn this paper, we examine the effect of regional digital technology (including computing, communication equipment, software, and databases) on income distribution at the regional level. We aim to fill a gap in existing research by exploring the moderating role of formal and informal institutions —such as bonding and bridging social capital— in shaping how digital technology affects income inequality across European NUTS2 regions from 2006 to 2016. The results indicate that regions with greater access to digital technology are prone to higher levels of income inequality. However, this negative link is mitigated by strong formal and informal institutions, particularly through improved government effectiveness and bridging social capital. The findings are robust to potential endogeneity concerns, as demonstrated by the instrumental variable approach adopted
Safety among displaced South Sudanese in Khartoum: the role of Christian faith communities
No full textChristianity occupies an integral part of South Sudanese journeys through wars and displacement. This article explores the role of Christian faith communities in providing protection during South Sudanese displacement. As an epicentre for displaced South Sudanese in the region, this research focuses on the displaced South Sudanese at camps and camp‐like settlements in Khartoum, Sudan. In these camps there is a lack of access to basic services due to the displaced South Sudanese's compromised position as refugees and foreigners. The article builds on previous scholarship on the role of Christian communities as peace brokers, community leaders and spiritual mentors in South Sudan and the borderlands. It argues that through self and community—protection strategies, including advocacy and mobilisation of displaced South Sudanese and collaborations with other protection actors, Christian faith communities leverage their position as ‘displaced believers’ to provide vulnerable South Sudanese in Khartoum with a sense of community, dignity and protection